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Remaining top free agent predictions

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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: February 22, 2019, 8:11 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
If one drops the 2012 and 2013 numbers (bad) and the 2017 numbers (good), and just keep what could be considered a "normal" offensive season from Gonzalez, that accounts for four of the last five seasons and the combined slash line from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 is .262/.314/.412/.726. Last year he was at .247/.324/.409/.733.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: February 22, 2019, 9:09 AM Post
Posts: 554
Location: Milwaukee
JosephC said:
If one drops the 2012 and 2013 numbers (bad) and the 2017 numbers (good), and just keep what could be considered a "normal" offensive season from Gonzalez, that accounts for four of the last five seasons and the combined slash line from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 is .262/.314/.412/.726. Last year he was at .247/.324/.409/.733.

Agree with this perspective. Those 4yrs are what you expect to get from Marwin but his 2017 also shows he possesses the ability to achieve beyond what he's done thus far. Not that it'll happen but it's possible.

Whereas Perez doesn't have that ability. The past 3yrs he's slashed 262/294/411/705 (83 wrc+) and that *includes* his 2016. Marwin is definitely better than Perez offensively and even if you remove his 2017 his wrc+ is still 20pts+ higher than Perez.

While I was never opposed to targeting Marwin because him and Dubon would have everything covered I'm also hard core against paying him what he wants to be paid because I think he's nothing more than a better Perez. Which is no doubt valuable but not that price-tag valuable, especially when Hiura is up this year and still have the OF in tact next year + Ray. Marwin will literally take Perez's spot as he isn't starting over anyone.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 6:11 AM Post
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Kimbrel concerns me for the same reason Jeffress does. They each threw massive amounts of high-leverage innings on short rest deep into October. I expect to see lingering effects.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 8:31 AM Post
Posts: 2042
NYChez said:
Kimbrel concerns me for the same reason Jeffress does. They each threw massive amounts of high-leverage innings on short rest deep into October. I expect to see lingering effects.


Kimbrell’s innings in line with previous years. This guy is one of the top closers in the history of baseball. If we could get him for a one or two year deal why not, we have the money. Imagine a back end pen of Kimbrell,Hader and Knebel.with hopefully a healthy Jeffress.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 9:39 AM Post
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Location: Green Bay, WI
If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 9:50 AM Post
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Point Beer Is Best said:
If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?


Kimbrel. I'd prefer to get through 4-5 innings with someone else and then close out 50 or 60 games that are close or we have a lead in with Kimbrel, Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Claudio.

Keuchel may be able to push back an inferior starter or move someone else to the bullpen but in theory he could end up being only about as valuable as Chacin was last year.

And even with all of that, if they sign Keuchel to a reasonable deal, I'd be fine with it.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 9:50 AM Post
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Point Beer Is Best said:
If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?


I could potentially see a lot of value in both, and I love solid starters, but with the way the Brewers use their pitchers, I think they'd probably value Kimbrel more. I mean, the fact that the pen was a major strength last year surely didn't stop them from trading for Soria in an effort to create a super pen. That move basically worked, too.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 10:39 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
Point Beer Is Best said:
If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?


Keuchel and it's not even close. Paying 15+ million dollars to a guy who projects to around 60 innings and would want to pitch in only one rigid, specific bullpen role is a terrible investment.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 10:54 AM Post
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JosephC said:
Point Beer Is Best said:
If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?


Keuchel and it's not even close. Paying 15+ million dollars to a guy who projects to around 60 innings and would want to pitch in only one rigid, specific bullpen role is a terrible investment.


I don't think his role would be rigid or specific with woke Counsell.

You could also argue that you'd be paying Keuchel $15 million to pitch hopefully a little bit better than Jhoulys Chacin is not a great investment. And if you extend it to years beyond this one, Kimbrel may age a bit better (though that is debatable).

One could maybe compare this to paying up for Case Keenum vs. paying up for Le'Veon Bell. A potentially elite player at a "less important" (but fairly important if deployed correctly) or a pretty good player at a very important position. Of course all sorts of debates can rage on about how good Keuchel will be and how that works into the comparison.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 11:58 AM Post
Posts: 1513
Keuchel for me and it also isn't close. He has shown that he can go through the order three times without losing much effectiveness. That would have a tremendous value to our starting rotation.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 2:07 PM Post
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Well kind of a hard question when one doesn't have contract options to pick from. I will take Kimbrel though. Probably a shorter contract and cheaper. Our rotation will be fine. If we need to get a back end guy to solidify it, fine...but we probably have enough depth. Keuchel just isn't a huge difference maker to me over what we have.

While last October proves no ones performance is guarantee (Kimbrel was bad) I want the bullpen guy. Bullpen bullpen bullpen...that is the pitching that wins a World Series. Keuchel is not the kind of starter that is going to be ungodly in the postseason. The only thing that makes me want Keuchel is the fact he may help more getting to the postseason, which is obviously important. I am pretty confident this team can get there just as well with Kimbrel (and grabbing a starter in July if need be). So I want Kimbrel.

I am guessing Kimbrel would sign for a lot less than one would expect though in my analysis....and I also don't particularly want to spend big money on either. So really neither is the right answer...but if I was spending the money regardless...Kimbrel.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 3:11 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Well kind of a hard question when one doesn't have contract options to pick from. I will take Kimbrel though. Probably a shorter contract and cheaper. Our rotation will be fine. If we need to get a back end guy to solidify it, fine...but we probably have enough depth. Keuchel just isn't a huge difference maker to me over what we have.

While last October proves no ones performance is guarantee (Kimbrel was bad) I want the bullpen guy. Bullpen bullpen bullpen...that is the pitching that wins a World Series. Keuchel is not the kind of starter that is going to be ungodly in the postseason. The only thing that makes me want Keuchel is the fact he may help more getting to the postseason, which is obviously important. I am pretty confident this team can get there just as well with Kimbrel (and grabbing a starter in July if need be). So I want Kimbrel.

I am guessing Kimbrel would sign for a lot less than one would expect though in my analysis....and I also don't particularly want to spend big money on either. So really neither is the right answer...but if I was spending the money regardless...Kimbrel.


Keuchel would be a left handed starter that we could use for matchups. He would give us another year of control on one of our good young starting pitchers that we could stash in the minors/keep in reserve. I am more concerned about our starting pitching depth than I am about our bullpen depth.

I have a lot of confidence in our "A" bullpen guys (Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Claudio, Guerra). Kimbrel would add to that group but not as much as Keuchel adding to our starting pitcher depth.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 07, 2019, 3:17 PM Post
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I'd be thrilled and super surprised if we signed either Keuchel or Kimbrel, both would be pretty huge additions.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 08, 2019, 7:26 AM Post
Posts: 2042
JosephC said:
Point Beer Is Best said:
If you had the budget to sign one, but not both, who is more valuable to the team this year - Kimbrel or Keuchel?


Keuchel and it's not even close. Paying 15+ million dollars to a guy who projects to around 60 innings and would want to pitch in only one rigid, specific bullpen role is a terrible investment.


Disagree good sir. I’ll take 40+ saves from arguably the best closer in the game today. Knebel,Hader and hopefully healthy Jeffress can lock down the 7th & 8th inning. His signing also protects us from an injured or ineffective Jeffress.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 08, 2019, 8:18 AM Post
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I still have hope David has one more addition to make and its one of these two guys never have enough pitching.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 08, 2019, 9:38 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
Interesting note. Martin Maldonado, still a free agent, received a 2 year contract offer from the Astros at the beginning of free agency and that offer was turned down. Scott Boras was the agent involved. Maldonado fired Scott Boras a few days ago and now is represented by Dan Lozano.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 08, 2019, 9:49 AM Post
Posts: 4586
Location: New Berlin, WI
JosephC said:
Interesting note. Martin Maldonado, still a free agent, received a 2 year contract offer from the Astros at the beginning of free agency and that offer was turned down. Scott Boras was the agent involved. Maldonado fired Scott Boras a few days ago and now is represented by Dan Lozano.


Scott Boras is the absolute worst. He's screwed up big time with a significant number of his free agents over the last few years, probably many more times than the general public is aware of. I wonder if athletes will start flocking away from him.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 08, 2019, 10:25 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
JosephC said:
Interesting note. Martin Maldonado, still a free agent, received a 2 year contract offer from the Astros at the beginning of free agency and that offer was turned down. Scott Boras was the agent involved. Maldonado fired Scott Boras a few days ago and now is represented by Dan Lozano.


Scott Boras is the absolute worst. He's screwed up big time with a significant number of his free agents over the last few years, probably many more times than the general public is aware of. I wonder if athletes will start flocking away from him.


Moustakas, probably Keuchel, and...?

Most of this just seems to be the crappy reality of owners making a switch to the system where non-elite guys won't get long-term deals in their 30s and Moustakas and Keuchel (debatable) were left holding the bag.

EDIT: And OK, I guess Maldonado.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 08, 2019, 10:55 AM Post
Posts: 4586
Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
KeithStone53151 said:
JosephC said:
Interesting note. Martin Maldonado, still a free agent, received a 2 year contract offer from the Astros at the beginning of free agency and that offer was turned down. Scott Boras was the agent involved. Maldonado fired Scott Boras a few days ago and now is represented by Dan Lozano.


Scott Boras is the absolute worst. He's screwed up big time with a significant number of his free agents over the last few years, probably many more times than the general public is aware of. I wonder if athletes will start flocking away from him.


Moustakas, probably Keuchel, and...?

Most of this just seems to be the crappy reality of owners making a switch to the system where non-elite guys won't get long-term deals in their 30s and Moustakas and Keuchel (debatable) were left holding the bag.

EDIT: And OK, I guess Maldonado.


Pollock, Mccutchen, Eovaldi, Lemehiu, Murphy...all got multi-year deals and guess what these guys all have in common?

Also don't forget about Greg Holland last year.


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Offline  Re: Remaining top free agent predictions
Posted: March 08, 2019, 11:43 AM Post
Posts: 1019
There's evidence on both sides where Boras has done well/poorly for his players. At what point does enough people are hampered by Boras where it tarnishes his ability to get the really good contracts?


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