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Kimbrel?

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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 06, 2019, 12:22 AM Post
Posts: 619
DHonks said:


The multiple times Clemens did it, it worked out well for Roger, The Astros, and the Yankees




I'd also add comparing one of the best relievers in the history of baseball to other pitchers who have done this in the past few years is pointless. Holland was great later in the season last year. You can't bring pitchers straight from working out and throw them into high leverage situations.

If the Brewers signed him, I doubt they'd do this.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 06, 2019, 9:08 AM Post
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DHonks said:


The multiple times Clemens did it, it worked out well for Roger, The Astros, and the Yankees


I remember him bombing pretty hard at least once. I don't remember how late he signed in other seasons, but PED's helped.

The point is that even in his case, that kind of acquisition has a pretty low success rate. For every time it works out (Clemens a couple times, Arrieta last year), it seems there are 2 or 3 times it fails, sometimes miserably. Spring training is really important, especially in the post-PED era.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 06, 2019, 1:02 PM Post
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coolhandluke121 said:
DHonks said:


The multiple times Clemens did it, it worked out well for Roger, The Astros, and the Yankees


I remember him bombing pretty hard at least once. I don't remember how late he signed in other seasons, but PED's helped.

The point is that even in his case, that kind of acquisition has a pretty low success rate. For every time it works out (Clemens a couple times, Arrieta last year), it seems there are 2 or 3 times it fails, sometimes miserably. Spring training is really important, especially in the post-PED era.


Are we talking about Clemens final year when he was 44 years old and put up an FIP of 4.14? At that point, that was what Clemens had planned on doing. The previous year at 43 he was very good doing the same thing.

But what pitchers are we talking about specifically who did this and struggled? Are they average to slightly above average pitchers or are they elite pitchers like Kimbrel?

Everyone points to Holland last year forgetting how dominant he was the second half of the year when he put up a .84 ERA for the Nats. In that case, he was signed and thrown in almost immediately. That was just a bad move on the part of the Cards.

I don't remember many elite pitchers in the prime of Hall of Fame careers struggling badly after signing late because it seldom happens. It's hard to compare Kimbrel to anyone else unless there are examples of other elite pitchers who did this that I just can't remember.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 06, 2019, 3:46 PM Post
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I still think if the Crew can add Kimbrel this bullpen will be lights out.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 06, 2019, 9:10 PM Post
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Well, if the Brewers are going to sign this idiot, now would be the time to be looking at it. I think he continues to rot, though.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 06, 2019, 9:33 PM Post
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I guess this will continue to be talked about until he does sign.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 5:54 AM Post
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Brewers not gonna spend the $ to sign him. They have there budget and there not gonna budge.

Rid pen of Barnes and Williams.

Jeffress and Nelson ^^ til trade deadline.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 7:46 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Brewers not gonna spend the $ to sign him. They have there budget and there not gonna budge.

Rid pen of Barnes and Williams.

Jeffress and Nelson ^^ til trade deadline.


You're right. We should probably stop talking about it because its just rehashing the same arguments/ideas over and over.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 8:37 AM Post
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FWIW
Jim Bowden just said kimbrel sitting out the year unless he gets multi year deal he wants

Kuechel will sign a 1 yr QO type deal.


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Online  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 1:07 PM Post
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From Jim Duquette referring to MLB Network Radio interview: Matt Arnold Assistant GM of the Brewers in regards to Kimbrel, just told us that they continue to do their do diligence to improve the team but “we do not foresee any additions at this point” from the outside


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 1:10 PM Post
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Well this is pretty good info that can put the Brewers and Kimbrel are not going to happen. It was fun talking about this but it looks like it over.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 2:16 PM Post
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brewmann04 said:
Well this is pretty good info that can put the Brewers and Kimbrel are not going to happen. It was fun talking about this but it looks like it over.



What addition has been made that we had any inkling of beforehand? This would have been the only one, had it happened already. Still, not going to discount it until he signs elsewhere.


I've got no reason to believe that he's bluffing about sitting out the whole year, but unless he is injured and is buying time as others have hypothesized, I don't believe it. How long does he really want to sit out waiting for a contract that just isn't going to come? Does he really believe that next year after sitting out a whole year teams are going to be willing to go 6/100 for a closer?


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 2:23 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Brewers not gonna spend the $ to sign him. They have there budget and there not gonna budge.

Rid pen of Barnes and Williams.

Jeffress and Nelson ^^ til trade deadline.



I certainly hope they make a move a lot sooner than that. This team has just about everything in place and they jumped out to a great start in a tough division.

It's disappointing watching Hader "reduced" to the last 3 outs and saved when we saw how valuable he was last year when you had a great closer.


Edit-Of course just minutes after I post this, Hader comes in to put the fire out in the 7th vs the Cubs, meaning he'll likely pitch the rest of the 7th and 8th.


Last edited by HiAndTight on April 07, 2019, 2:30 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 2:23 PM Post
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Location: Washburn, WI
HiAndTight said:
brewmann04 said:
Well this is pretty good info that can put the Brewers and Kimbrel are not going to happen. It was fun talking about this but it looks like it over.



What addition has been made that we had any inkling of beforehand? This would have been the only one, had it happened already. Still, not going to discount it until he signs elsewhere.


I've got no reason to believe that he's bluffing about sitting out the whole year, but unless he is injured and is buying time as others have hypothesized, I don't believe it. How long does he really want to sit out waiting for a contract that just isn't going to come? Does he really believe that next year after sitting out a whole year teams are going to be willing to go 6/100 for a closer?


Cain is one of them. He was linked to the Brewers for about a week I believe before we signed him.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 4:42 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
I'd love to know what Kimbrel's demands currently are. Would have to think he's demanding more than Britton's 3 year, 39 million (biggest contract given to a reliever this past off-season). 2 years, 40 million? 3 years, 54 million? 4 years, 64 million? Would guess that he is still in that 3-4 year, 54-64 million dollar area.

2020 will be his age 32 season.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 4:52 PM Post
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JosephC said:
I'd love to know what Kimbrel's demands currently are. Would have to think he's demanding more than Britton's 3 year, 39 million (biggest contract given to a reliever this past off-season). 2 years, 40 million? 3 years, 54 million? 4 years, 64 million? Would guess that he is still in that 3-4 year, 54-64 million dollar area.

2020 will be his age 32 season.


Closer to 5-110 or 6-128. I don't see Kimbrel looking for a 2-3 year deal maybe a 4-year deal but he is going to want at least 5-years and his AAV should be around $20-22m.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 07, 2019, 11:06 PM Post
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I'm sure our front office has lots of options for now. Last year they showed they were willing to take minor league prospects with good stuff and letting them get extra seasoning in the big league pen rather than AA/AAA.

Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff deserve to get a minimum of 6 turns in the rotation. I think Hauser could be a candidate to help Chase Anderson serve as long relievers when the kids struggle to go past 4 innings. As the Brewers evaluate Jimmy Nelson's status, I could see them deciding the best way to limit his innings is to pitch 2-3 innings every 4th day. Our pen is a bit of a weak spot now, but that may change soon.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 08, 2019, 6:45 AM Post
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DHonks said:
I'm sure our front office has lots of options for now. Last year they showed they were willing to take minor league prospects with good stuff and letting them get extra seasoning in the big league pen rather than AA/AAA.

Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff deserve to get a minimum of 6 turns in the rotation. I think Hauser could be a candidate to help Chase Anderson serve as long relievers when the kids struggle to go past 4 innings. As the Brewers evaluate Jimmy Nelson's status, I could see them deciding the best way to limit his innings is to pitch 2-3 innings every 4th day. Our pen is a bit of a weak spot now, but that may change soon.


Great take.
That is how I see things moving forward.

Crew wanted to use houser as depth for rotation, but we need another quality multi- inning pen arm, and houser fits the bill. So does Brown, but I think they let him get some AAA seasoning and wait til past S2. Having the 2 plus Guerra would as you say, help with the inexperience of our young trio and take the pressure off our pen with some possible shorter outings. Also not gonna discount Wilkerson from the conversation with his great start yesterday.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 08, 2019, 8:20 AM Post
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nate82 said:
JosephC said:
I'd love to know what Kimbrel's demands currently are. Would have to think he's demanding more than Britton's 3 year, 39 million (biggest contract given to a reliever this past off-season). 2 years, 40 million? 3 years, 54 million? 4 years, 64 million? Would guess that he is still in that 3-4 year, 54-64 million dollar area.

2020 will be his age 32 season.


Closer to 5-110 or 6-128. I don't see Kimbrel looking for a 2-3 year deal maybe a 4-year deal but he is going to want at least 5-years and his AAV should be around $20-22m.



Well, those are the highest numbers we've heard. That's like the 400 million for Machado or Harper. I remember Olney reporting the initial ask was 6/108. Just a little more than the AAV of Wade Davis for twice the years. That was back in October. Not hard to see why he's watching baseball in April.

Can't imagine he's still on that number which was just THEIR starting point to begin with. I'm sure he's still high, but I doubt they're asking for 6/128 right now. Especially with all the big boys out of it. Who have his suitors been? The Mets? They have the money, but added a ton already. That's the most realistic one. The Braves as noted are notoriously cheap relative to their revenue and the control they have over that big block in the Southeast.

The Sox were clear from the start, the Yanks certainly don't need him, the Dodgers I guess could have been an option given the salary they traded away and Kenley's heart issue, but I never heard them brought up. Cubs, payroll-luxury tax.

Not seeing any outs here for Kimbrel. Sooner or later he's got to pick between actually sitting out and sucking it up and taking that 1 year 20 million dollar deal or whatever it ends up being prorated for whatever he's missed.

I doubt he'd turn down 3 and 64...but who knows.


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Offline  Re: Kimbrel?
Posted: April 08, 2019, 8:25 AM Post
Posts: 3100
DHonks said:
I'm sure our front office has lots of options for now. Last year they showed they were willing to take minor league prospects with good stuff and letting them get extra seasoning in the big league pen rather than AA/AAA.

Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff deserve to get a minimum of 6 turns in the rotation. I think Hauser could be a candidate to help Chase Anderson serve as long relievers when the kids struggle to go past 4 innings. As the Brewers evaluate Jimmy Nelson's status, I could see them deciding the best way to limit his innings is to pitch 2-3 innings every 4th day. Our pen is a bit of a weak spot now, but that may change soon.



I'm confident it'll end up being solid, but I personally am really hoping they don't try to do that with Nelson.

If he's not healthy enough to pitch, we've got bigger problems. But at this point, after all the rehab, his shoulder is going to have to get back into shape, he's going to have scar tissue, but using him in the pen for 2-3 innings?

Once Nelson is ready to go, I think he slots back into the pen. think there's a very very small chance he becomes a long man in the pen.


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