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Giants Relievers...

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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: May 13, 2019, 8:16 AM Post
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Looking at the caliber of prospects that have been traded in recent years for rental relievers, I think some of you are either way overvaluing the cost of someone like Smith, or are undervaluing our prospects. I could see Smith being dealt for perhaps a couple guys in the teens or 20s (think Webb, Stokes, Bello, Gatewood level) and a lottery ticket-type. I can't see Smith's value being leaps and bounds higher than Soria's was last year, and Soria brought back Medieros (#13 at the time of the deal) and a lottery ticket.


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: May 13, 2019, 9:01 AM Post
Posts: 1241
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Looking at the caliber of prospects that have been traded in recent years for rental relievers, I think some of you are either way overvaluing the cost of someone like Smith, or are undervaluing our prospects. I could see Smith being dealt for perhaps a couple guys in the teens or 20s (think Webb, Stokes, Bello, Gatewood level) and a lottery ticket-type. I can't see Smith's value being leaps and bounds higher than Soria's was last year, and Soria brought back Medieros (#13 at the time of the deal) and a lottery ticket.


Smith pitching better than Soria and for less money, wish you were right, but think it be a higher cost.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: May 13, 2019, 9:14 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Looking at the caliber of prospects that have been traded in recent years for rental relievers, I think some of you are either way overvaluing the cost of someone like Smith, or are undervaluing our prospects. I could see Smith being dealt for perhaps a couple guys in the teens or 20s (think Webb, Stokes, Bello, Gatewood level) and a lottery ticket-type. I can't see Smith's value being leaps and bounds higher than Soria's was last year, and Soria brought back Medieros (#13 at the time of the deal) and a lottery ticket.


Smith pitching better than Soria and for less money, wish you were right, but think it be a higher cost.


Soria had a 2.56 ERA and 16 saves at the time of the deal, so he was pitching great. He also had a larger track record as a closer than Smith, and the White Sox sent money the Brewers' way to help offset Soria's remaining salary. If the deal is made earlier in the year, the cost may be more significant, but value wise, they are very close. Smith being a lefty may raise his value a tad, but I don't believe a trade for Smith is going to cost the Brewers a top 5-10 prospect.


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: May 13, 2019, 10:02 AM Post
Posts: 1241
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Looking at the caliber of prospects that have been traded in recent years for rental relievers, I think some of you are either way overvaluing the cost of someone like Smith, or are undervaluing our prospects. I could see Smith being dealt for perhaps a couple guys in the teens or 20s (think Webb, Stokes, Bello, Gatewood level) and a lottery ticket-type. I can't see Smith's value being leaps and bounds higher than Soria's was last year, and Soria brought back Medieros (#13 at the time of the deal) and a lottery ticket.


Smith pitching better than Soria and for less money, wish you were right, but think it be a higher cost.


Soria had a 2.56 ERA and 16 saves at the time of the deal, so he was pitching great. He also had a larger track record as a closer than Smith, and the White Sox sent money the Brewers' way to help offset Soria's remaining salary. If the deal is made earlier in the year, the cost may be more significant, but value wise, they are very close. Smith being a lefty may raise his value a tad, but I don't believe a trade for Smith is going to cost the Brewers a top 5-10 prospect.


Cards boards calling for c- mart for Smith, So there’s gonna be more competition for Smith imo.

Houser & Stokes & Grisham > Smith or
Houser & Lutz > Smith

Soria was 34 at the time of trade, Smith 29 with better stuff.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: May 13, 2019, 10:16 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:

Cards boards calling for c- mart for Smith, So there’s gonna be more competition for Smith imo.

Houser & Stokes & Grisham > Smith or
Houser & Lutz > Smith

Soria was 34 at the time of trade, Smith 29 with better stuff.


It's a half year rental, so age is completely insignificant. And also just because a team's fanbase floats an idea, it doesn't mean that the idea makes any sense. Would the Giants want Carlos Martinez, who is making nearly $12 million this year, if they are in a rebuild?

There is no way the Brewers should even entertain trading a prospect the level of Lutz for a rental reliever. Nor do I think he'd cost close to that much to acquire. You are significantly overvaluing the rental market, or undervaluing our prospects.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: May 17, 2019, 12:23 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:

Cards boards calling for c- mart for Smith, So there’s gonna be more competition for Smith imo.

Houser & Stokes & Grisham > Smith or
Houser & Lutz > Smith

Soria was 34 at the time of trade, Smith 29 with better stuff.


It's a half year rental, so age is completely insignificant. And also just because a team's fanbase floats an idea, it doesn't mean that the idea makes any sense. Would the Giants want Carlos Martinez, who is making nearly $12 million this year, if they are in a rebuild?

There is no way the Brewers should even entertain trading a prospect the level of Lutz for a rental reliever. Nor do I think he'd cost close to that much to acquire. You are significantly overvaluing the rental market, or undervaluing our prospects.


I assume the tommy john wouldn't matter anymore, right? He has been about as consistently good as a reliever can be. And you can't say it is park effect, in 2018 Smith pitched better away from home. If the Giants put Smith on the market in June to gather potentially more teams to go after him, and get the premium for trading him early - there will be a pretty decent haul going back.


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: May 18, 2019, 8:11 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
I think some deeper systems might be able to swing a deal for Smith without including an organizational top 10 prospect, but I don't know if the Brewers quality is good enough outside of the top 10. One guy outside of the top 10 (maybe has moved into the top 10 now) that I think would be of interest to the Giants as one piece would be Stokes because he is MLB ready and could go into the Giant outfield immediately. Frankly, if I'm the Giants there just isn't much else that the Brewers have outside of the top 10 that interests me. Stokes, Supak, Carlos Rodriguez, Eduarqui Fernandez....those are players that would interest me. I'd have absolutely zero interest in players like Diplan and Gatewood, absolutely no interest whatsoever.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: May 18, 2019, 10:13 AM Post
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JosephC said:
I think some deeper systems might be able to swing a deal for Smith without including an organizational top 10 prospect, but I don't know if the Brewers quality is good enough outside of the top 10. One guy outside of the top 10 (maybe has moved into the top 10 now) that I think would be of interest to the Giants as one piece would be Stokes because he is MLB ready and could go into the Giant outfield immediately. Frankly, if I'm the Giants there just isn't much else that the Brewers have outside of the top 10 that interests me. Stokes, Supak, Carlos Rodriguez, Eduarqui Fernandez....those are players that would interest me. I'd have absolutely zero interest in players like Diplan and Gatewood, absolutely no interest whatsoever.


Stokes is not MLB ready. He has just 44 ABs in AAA ball. As of now he is hitting .189 for San Antonio and striking out 1/3 of his ABs. Stokes could be part of the package, but he's not what the Giants would want for immediate help. I don't know if the Crew has what the Giants want for Smith. I don't know if Stearns would give up what the Giants want for a rental.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: May 18, 2019, 10:22 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
JosephC said:
I think some deeper systems might be able to swing a deal for Smith without including an organizational top 10 prospect, but I don't know if the Brewers quality is good enough outside of the top 10. One guy outside of the top 10 (maybe has moved into the top 10 now) that I think would be of interest to the Giants as one piece would be Stokes because he is MLB ready and could go into the Giant outfield immediately. Frankly, if I'm the Giants there just isn't much else that the Brewers have outside of the top 10 that interests me. Stokes, Supak, Carlos Rodriguez, Eduarqui Fernandez....those are players that would interest me. I'd have absolutely zero interest in players like Diplan and Gatewood, absolutely no interest whatsoever.


Stokes is not MLB ready. He has just 44 ABs in AAA ball. As of now he is hitting .189 for San Antonio and striking out 1/3 of his ABs. Stokes could be part of the package, but he's not what the Giants would want for immediate help. I don't know if the Crew has what the Giants want for Smith. I don't know if Stearns would give up what the Giants want for a rental.


I think this is the right answer. Even though I think some here might be assigning too much value to Smith, the teams still need to match up on the prospects to make the deal happen. It depends if the Giants are looking for guys they can plug onto the MLB roster immediately, or if they are looking for younger higher upside guys. The Brewers obviously have a decent sized pool of both types of players, but nobody really knows where they value them. So the only real right answer is "I don't know."


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