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Giants Relievers...

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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: June 19, 2019, 8:31 AM Post
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HiAndTight said:
I highly question how much a GM will measure a trade using the surplus value in this way, to begin with.

They would seem to, even if it's not the exact way we can use publically available data.


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: June 19, 2019, 8:37 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Nottingham is a 45 and the Giants would laugh themselves silly if you offered Smith straight up for him even though the "excess value" says they would be getting the better end of the deal.

I'd argue that the surplus value is more of an argument for who the Brewers *shouldn't* trade than who they should trade. If the Brewers value Lutz at 50 or 55 OFP for calculating his value, they flat shouldn't trade him for Smith. It's a bad deal.

I need to update my OFP reports, but currently, I have 12 Brewers at a 45 OFP. And the Giants may value one or more of those players more highly than the Brewers do, and if a deal happens, that's probably where agreement is made. Player(s) the Brewers value under 50 OFP, but the Giants value more than the Brewers.

Pretty sure this is what happened with the Schoop deal. It seems the Brewers didn't actually internally value Luis Ortiz highly at all, or at least nearly as highly as the Orioles did.


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: June 19, 2019, 8:40 AM Post
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JosephC said:
I'd have a 26 million dollar hitting prospect at being equivalent to the #73 player on the top 100 list.

I generally disagree with using rankings to try to suss out value. I'd guess beyond the top 20-40 players, there's pretty strong variance in player ranking. OFP/FV grades, on the other hand, are almost always pretty consistent across a half dozen or more evaluations.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: June 21, 2019, 10:37 AM Post
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And That said:
HiAndTight said:
I highly question how much a GM will measure a trade using the surplus value in this way, to begin with.

They would seem to, even if it's not the exact way we can use publically available data.



I don't see how this supports that GM's are using surplus value in the ways that have been suggested in this thread to upgrade their teams in deadline deals at all.


Analytics are extremely important in baseball, but I don't think a GM is going to pass up trading a guy with a 45 grade for example for a pitcher he feels can fortify his BP because when you project what a player with a 45 grade averages out to vs a dominant reliever over half a season, you end up with negative surplus value. Theo certainly didn't do that when he traded for Chapman.

Also, there was too much for me to read through in there, but did they actually have quotes or comments from any GMs?


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: June 21, 2019, 3:48 PM Post
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HiAndTight said:
I don't see how this supports that GM's are using surplus value in the ways that have been suggested in this thread

Also, there was too much for me to read through in there

Indeed.

I mean, the blog goes into detail as to how teams are putting together deals that make sense in the $/WAR framework, and this is just one article of many on the topic.

It’s research, it’s not been put out there to have quotes from GMs.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: June 21, 2019, 7:24 PM Post
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I would be extremely surprised if there was just one MLB team that didn't do surplus value calculations, using their own set of metrics, as guidelines for all types of player transactions...starting with trades. If I was a GM and was considering an offer, the first thing I would do is put it through the analytics department and have them give me the mathematical evaluation on if the deal was fair. I'm not saying that I would make or break deals 100% of the time based on a number, but I sure would use it as a guideline to tell me if the deal had value or not. I'd go as far as saying that if there was a team out there that wasn't using their analytics department for this purpose, then I'd question the value that their analytics department had to their franchise. Trades can be a pretty big deal.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: June 21, 2019, 10:50 PM Post
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JosephC said:
I would be extremely surprised if there was just one MLB team that didn't do surplus value calculations, using their own set of metrics, as guidelines for all types of player transactions...starting with trades. If I was a GM and was considering an offer, the first thing I would do is put it through the analytics department and have them give me the mathematical evaluation on if the deal was fair. I'm not saying that I would make or break deals 100% of the time based on a number, but I sure would use it as a guideline to tell me if the deal had value or not. I'd go as far as saying that if there was a team out there that wasn't using their analytics department for this purpose, then I'd question the value that their analytics department had to their franchise. Trades can be a pretty big deal.


None of this is in dispute.


What IS in dispute is the value of a guy like Lewis Brinson. Prospect value CAN be kind of predictive in aggregate (the top 25 prospects every year will likely produce XXX amount of WAR in their careers....however, most of that value is coming from 5 guys or so, then the rest of it is coming from the next 5-8 guys or so and the other 50%+ of guys in that top 25 will literally produce 0 value to an MLB club.

(My numbers are approximate. I'd welcome correction from those in the know)


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: June 21, 2019, 11:49 PM Post
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Oxy said:
JosephC said:
I would be extremely surprised if there was just one MLB team that didn't do surplus value calculations, using their own set of metrics, as guidelines for all types of player transactions...starting with trades. If I was a GM and was considering an offer, the first thing I would do is put it through the analytics department and have them give me the mathematical evaluation on if the deal was fair. I'm not saying that I would make or break deals 100% of the time based on a number, but I sure would use it as a guideline to tell me if the deal had value or not. I'd go as far as saying that if there was a team out there that wasn't using their analytics department for this purpose, then I'd question the value that their analytics department had to their franchise. Trades can be a pretty big deal.


None of this is in dispute.


What IS in dispute is the value of a guy like Lewis Brinson. Prospect value CAN be kind of predictive in aggregate (the top 25 prospects every year will likely produce XXX amount of WAR in their careers....however, most of that value is coming from 5 guys or so, then the rest of it is coming from the next 5-8 guys or so and the other 50%+ of guys in that top 25 will literally produce 0 value to an MLB club.

(My numbers are approximate. I'd welcome correction from those in the know)



Right, I'm not disputing that they are using analytics to evaluate trades, I'm disputing that they're using them as stringently as they're being used on here, ie, a lower end top 100 prospect is worth Xfuture WAR, so he has this much value while Will Smith will only be on the team for half a year, so his value is 1.2 WAR, so we end out coming 20 million dollars behind in this trade, so I'm gonna pass.

That's what I''m questioning.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: June 22, 2019, 9:19 AM Post
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If I'm in Stearns chair, this would be the first trade I'd officially try and make this season. I'd be giving the Giants a call today and starting with Will Smith...but my real target would be Sam Dyson. I'd put Dyson's trade value in the 4 million surplus value range, so it's not crazy to think the Brewers might be able to land him for a couple fringe prospects. He's not spectacular and could earn 7 million next year, which could easily motivate the Giants to dump him for the first offer they get. Thing that really sells me on Dyson is that he's been so solid for the last 4+ years outside of the terrible start to the 2017 season which resulted in the Rangers dumping him. Also love the ground ball rates he's posted throughout his career, I think there is a very good chance that his stuff plays up when pitching in Miller Park in a juiced ball year.

2016 = 2.43 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, 65.2% GB
2017 = 6.09 ERA, 4.96 xFIP, 63.0% GB
2018 = 2.69 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 61.3% GB
2019 = 2.91 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 58.6% GB
Note that even though the 58.6% GB rate seems like a "dropping" number when compared to the same number from earlier seasons, the 58.6% GB rate ranks 16th best out of 379 MLB pitchers that have thrown at least 20 innings this year, so he is still getting ground balls at a top rate.

And I wouldn't back off trying to get Smith or Watson in as part of this deal if the price was right. But Dyson would be target number one. Just like the combination of performance, fit and likely low price in terms of prospects that would need to be surrendered.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: July 12, 2019, 9:51 AM Post
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Brewers checked in on Will Smith. Might as well grab Sam Dyson too.


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