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Giants Relievers...

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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#81

Posted: April 05, 2019, 7:53 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Brew4U said:
...why do we have to trade for anyone right now? Don't worry, I'll answer it. We don't. Stearns is in a great spot with his team playing good baseball, leading the division, and a big reason for that early on is his pitching.


Agree, we don’t HAVE TO trade for anyone right now, but it would be nice to have one more experienced high leverage arm in our pen. But I would also imagine the price to be sky high for said arm.


Which is why you don't do it. It makes zero sense right now. You stand pat and continue to get what you can out of guys that you seem to really undervalue.


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
#82

Posted: April 08, 2019, 8:03 PM Post
Posts: 752
Mychal givens of the orioles.

Nasty stuff. Closer experience.
Gonna be expensive, first yr Arby.

Givens > Houser & Ray & Stokes & Lottery


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#83

Posted: April 08, 2019, 9:55 PM Post
Posts: 619
Brew4U said:
...why do we have to trade for anyone right now? Don't worry, I'll answer it. We don't. Stearns is in a great spot with his team playing good baseball, leading the division, and a big reason for that early on is his pitching.



Or I could answer that in an equally obnoxious way by asking myself a question and then answering it.

Why do you have to add someone to the pen right now? Don't worry, I'll answer it. Because we know it's going to be a significant issue, Josh Hader has been used as our closer and just pitched 2 2/3 IP because CC didn't have one other arm he could trust to close the game out and it just seems logical that if you KNOW something is going to be a problem and you're built to win this year, there's no good reason to wait until the trade deadline to improve your BP when you know you need to now.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#84

Posted: April 08, 2019, 9:57 PM Post
Posts: 619
Brew4U said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Brew4U said:
...why do we have to trade for anyone right now? Don't worry, I'll answer it. We don't. Stearns is in a great spot with his team playing good baseball, leading the division, and a big reason for that early on is his pitching.


Agree, we don’t HAVE TO trade for anyone right now, but it would be nice to have one more experienced high leverage arm in our pen. But I would also imagine the price to be sky high for said arm.


Which is why you don't do it. It makes zero sense right now. You stand pat and continue to get what you can out of guys that you seem to really undervalue.



You truly believe that it makes "zero sense" to try and improve the bullpen right now?

So when Hader's tired in August and when we stop winning ever game by 1 run with Hader closing all the games, we'll see if it still makes "zero sense."


There's a reason Stearns was even talking to Craig Kimbrel and it's not because it made "zero sense" to sign him.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#85

Posted: April 08, 2019, 10:01 PM Post
Posts: 619
Brew crew 92 said:
Brew4U said:
...why do we have to trade for anyone right now? Don't worry, I'll answer it. We don't. Stearns is in a great spot with his team playing good baseball, leading the division, and a big reason for that early on is his pitching.


Agree, we don’t HAVE TO trade for anyone right now, but it would be nice to have one more experienced high leverage arm in our pen. But I would also imagine the price to be sky high for said arm.



I think most people trust Stearns. If the price is too high, he won't do it. He's not going to trade Hirura for Will Smith, but I'm sure he's looking right now.


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
#86

Posted: April 09, 2019, 5:45 AM Post
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I wouldn’t mind the Brewers taking a chance on LHP Andrew Suarez. He is a player that would be very tough on lefties out of the bullpen and could be stretched out as a starter if needed at somepoint (started 29 games for the Giants last year). He has had trouble with right-handed batters, but is also young-ish enough to hope he can improve in that respect. He seems like a candidate that could see improved numbers with increased slider usage. Suarez is currently in Triple-A for the Giants, so in theory he shouldn’t cost a ton of value in order to acquire.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#87

Posted: April 09, 2019, 6:21 AM Post
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OnTheBlack said:

You truly believe that it makes "zero sense" to try and improve the bullpen right now?

So when Hader's tired in August and when we stop winning ever game by 1 run with Hader closing all the games, we'll see if it still makes "zero sense."

There's a reason Stearns was even talking to Craig Kimbrel and it's not because it made "zero sense" to sign him.


[laughing] Context is everything. I'll just say that about your rants. Both of those that you quoted at me was to a guy that would give up just about anything for a Giants reliever right now. It does make NO SENSE.

But hmm... doesn't sound like we'd be giving up multiple players for Kimbrel. Might be why Stearns is actually intrigued by the idea? Maybe use a better example next time you want to stand on your podium and attack because you're upset at our bullpen.

Maybe the better option is to let it continue to play out, let guys establish roles, get JJ back, see if any of your AAA guys can fill holes, fill with guys off the scrap heap like we've done before, and then when those options are exhausted, then you go out and see what the trade market is for guys that are on clubs willing to part ways. By that time, you're more than likely to find teams willing to part ways with players on better terms than what would occur now. Trading, which this thread is about, doesn't happen very often in April and for good reasons. Next time you want to overreact, aim it at someone else please and thank you.


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
#88

Posted: April 09, 2019, 7:52 AM Post
Posts: 752
Brew4U said:
OnTheBlack said:

You truly believe that it makes "zero sense" to try and improve the bullpen right now?

So when Hader's tired in August and when we stop winning ever game by 1 run with Hader closing all the games, we'll see if it still makes "zero sense."

There's a reason Stearns was even talking to Craig Kimbrel and it's not because it made "zero sense" to sign him.


[laughing] Context is everything. I'll just say that about your rants. Both of those that you quoted at me was to a guy that would give up just about anything for a Giants reliever right now. It does make NO SENSE.

But hmm... doesn't sound like we'd be giving up multiple players for Kimbrel. Might be why Stearns is actually intrigued by the idea? Maybe use a better example next time you want to stand on your podium and attack because you're upset at our bullpen.

Maybe the better option is to let it continue to play out, let guys establish roles, get JJ back, see if any of your AAA guys can fill holes, fill with guys off the scrap heap like we've done before, and then when those options are exhausted, then you go out and see what the trade market is for guys that are on clubs willing to part ways. By that time, you're more than likely to find teams willing to part ways with players on better terms than what would occur now. Trading, which this thread is about, doesn't happen very often in April and for good reasons. Next time you want to overreact, aim it at someone else please and thank you.


This team needs EXPERIENCED HIGH LEVERAGE pen arms, and we’re not getting that off the scrap heap or AAA. Now maybe JJ can be one again, we’ll find out in the next month. Not gonna count on jj being the dominant first 65 innings of last years jj. Trade with tanking team like the orioles for givens exactly what this team needs in my opinion. The goal shouldnt be to win EVERY trade, it should be to win the title. Ask Theo.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#89

Posted: April 09, 2019, 7:58 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
This team needs EXPERIENCED HIGH LEVERAGE pen arms, and we’re not getting that off the scrap heap or AAA. Now maybe JJ can be one again, we’ll find out in the next month. Not gonna count on jj being the dominant first 65 innings of last years jj. Trade with tanking team like the orioles for givens exactly what this team needs in my opinion. The goal shouldnt be to win EVERY trade, it should be to win the title. Ask Theo.


And this is fine that this is a need. It is a need with a lot of ball clubs. It is also something that doesn't happen very often if ever that a team trades in April. Now, signing Kimbrel might be different if he was willing to move off his lengthy demand but that is not what this thread was about.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#90

Posted: April 09, 2019, 8:03 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Brew4U said:
OnTheBlack said:

You truly believe that it makes "zero sense" to try and improve the bullpen right now?

So when Hader's tired in August and when we stop winning ever game by 1 run with Hader closing all the games, we'll see if it still makes "zero sense."

There's a reason Stearns was even talking to Craig Kimbrel and it's not because it made "zero sense" to sign him.


[laughing] Context is everything. I'll just say that about your rants. Both of those that you quoted at me was to a guy that would give up just about anything for a Giants reliever right now. It does make NO SENSE.

But hmm... doesn't sound like we'd be giving up multiple players for Kimbrel. Might be why Stearns is actually intrigued by the idea? Maybe use a better example next time you want to stand on your podium and attack because you're upset at our bullpen.

Maybe the better option is to let it continue to play out, let guys establish roles, get JJ back, see if any of your AAA guys can fill holes, fill with guys off the scrap heap like we've done before, and then when those options are exhausted, then you go out and see what the trade market is for guys that are on clubs willing to part ways. By that time, you're more than likely to find teams willing to part ways with players on better terms than what would occur now. Trading, which this thread is about, doesn't happen very often in April and for good reasons. Next time you want to overreact, aim it at someone else please and thank you.


This team needs EXPERIENCED HIGH LEVERAGE pen arms, and we’re not getting that off the scrap heap or AAA. Now maybe JJ can be one again, we’ll find out in the next month. Not gonna count on jj being the dominant first 65 innings of last years jj. Trade with tanking team like the orioles for givens exactly what this team needs in my opinion. The goal shouldnt be to win EVERY trade, it should be to win the title. Ask Theo.


There are literally 25 teams that are in contention right now that are looking for the same thing. That's why you rarely see big April trades.


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
#91

Posted: April 09, 2019, 8:28 AM Post
Posts: 752
Poop happens. Best laid plans.....

Maybe jeffress dominates when he comes back. But if he not the high leverage pen arm we need, then make the trade, overpay, get him here. Can’t wait 3 mo.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#92

Posted: April 09, 2019, 8:40 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Poop happens. Best laid plans.....

Maybe jeffress dominates when he comes back. But if he not the high leverage pen arm we need, then make the trade, overpay, get him here. Can’t wait 3 mo.

Joey Meyer Bombs said:
There are literally 25 teams that are in contention right now that are looking for the same thing. That's why you rarely see big April trades.


This is where we disagree. No one is debating that having another high-leverage arm wouldn't be a good thing. The team could use it of course. But Joey says it perfectly. These trades don't happen for a reason.

This team is built to win this season but I also don't want to see them sacrifice the future competing seasons. They are in a great spot. Lots of one-year deals that expire allowing them to build right back up around their foundation next season as well. It's a great time to be a Brewers fan with a smart GM like we have now.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#93

Posted: April 09, 2019, 9:08 AM Post
Posts: 575
Jeremy Jeffress was literally acquired off the scrap heap, TWICE. They'll keep shuffling and picking until they have the right group.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#94

Posted: April 09, 2019, 9:22 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
Jeremy Jeffress was literally acquired off the scrap heap, TWICE. They'll keep shuffling and picking until they have the right group.


You are spot on. Our recency bias tends to gloss over the fast that we went though stretches of guys like Mike Zagurski, JJ Hoover, Jordan Lyles and Oliver Drake getting leverage innings last year before they got things figured out.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#95

Posted: April 09, 2019, 10:26 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Jeremy Jeffress was literally acquired off the scrap heap, TWICE. They'll keep shuffling and picking until they have the right group.


You are spot on. Our recency bias tends to gloss over the fast that we went though stretches of guys like Mike Zagurski, JJ Hoover, Jordan Lyles and Oliver Drake getting leverage innings last year before they got things figured out.


Perfection guys. It is hard to recall all of that when thinking about our roster construction. Hopefully Stearns has some diamonds in the rough this season as well.


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Online  Re: Giants Relievers...
#96

Posted: April 09, 2019, 11:10 AM Post
Posts: 752
I do trust in Stearns to figure it out. And I know our pen will get stronger as the months move forward, just like last year. But geez, saw givens blow away yankee hitters and that guy has NASTY stuff. Orioles tanking.....


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#97

Posted: April 10, 2019, 4:56 PM Post
Posts: 3100
Brew4U said:
OnTheBlack said:

You truly believe that it makes "zero sense" to try and improve the bullpen right now?

So when Hader's tired in August and when we stop winning ever game by 1 run with Hader closing all the games, we'll see if it still makes "zero sense."

There's a reason Stearns was even talking to Craig Kimbrel and it's not because it made "zero sense" to sign him.


[laughing] Context is everything. I'll just say that about your rants. Both of those that you quoted at me was to a guy that would give up just about anything for a Giants reliever right now. It does make NO SENSE.

But hmm... doesn't sound like we'd be giving up multiple players for Kimbrel. Might be why Stearns is actually intrigued by the idea? Maybe use a better example next time you want to stand on your podium and attack because you're upset at our bullpen.

Maybe the better option is to let it continue to play out, let guys establish roles, get JJ back, see if any of your AAA guys can fill holes, fill with guys off the scrap heap like we've done before, and then when those options are exhausted, then you go out and see what the trade market is for guys that are on clubs willing to part ways. By that time, you're more than likely to find teams willing to part ways with players on better terms than what would occur now. Trading, which this thread is about, doesn't happen very often in April and for good reasons. Next time you want to overreact, aim it at someone else please and thank you.




Context is very important. Another thing that is important? Winning baseball games. Our pen is a shell of what we thought it was going to be. What's laughable is the notion that it makes zero sense to trade for a BP piece now without having any idea what it'll cost because you want to stand pat and wait to see how things shake out. Not sure if that was your exact quote or not, but it was close.

The Brewers are extremely lucky to be at 8-4. If you can make a move now, it makes a lot more sense than waiting until the deadline after the pen has cost you more games to do so.

And for what it's worth...which isn't a whole lot, but Jeffress in two AA outings now has given up 6 hits and 5 runs. But even if you're counting on him to come back and pitch like he did last year, which is extremely unlikely, you still have major holes in your pen.


And just to keep this straight, who wants to trade "just about anything" for a(as in one) Giants reliever?

The thread was about trading Corey Ray for Will Smith and a young guy who's pitching extremely well. Trading a prospect to a rebuilding team for two relievers. If that's who you're refering to, that's hardly "Just about anything," and that's for a dominant lefty with one year left and a potentially dominant young righty with 5 years left.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#98

Posted: April 10, 2019, 6:18 PM Post
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I just hate the thought of draining any more of the farm for bull pen arms. Some of those trades we made last year didn't help us at all, and I just don't want to go that route again...


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
#99

Posted: April 10, 2019, 10:41 PM Post
Posts: 619
turborickey said:
I just hate the thought of draining any more of the farm for bull pen arms. Some of those trades we made last year didn't help us at all, and I just don't want to go that route again...



Nobody does...but what's the alternative? Taking a team that should compete for a World Series and letting it lose games when it should be winning them?

And I'd argue there are not 25 teams looking to trade for relievers right now. That suggests there are just 5 teams who've decided they're in a rebuild, and it's not accounting for teams with loaded pens like the Yankees. Or the teams with talent but waiting to see how it works out(the Cards) or teams like the Rockies who've dedicated a ton to their pen already. So...yeah, nowhere near 25 who would seriously engage in trade discussions.

These trades absolutely happen in April, but they are rare. Good teams address these issues earlier rather than later.


That said, you can't force a team to trade with you. I asked what people thought about a particular trade and the debate is now if there is a reason to make a trade now(of course there is a reason, it's ridiculous to suggest otherwise) or how often trades happen in April..actually the question of if they ever happen at all.

If a team that's not contending doesn't want to trade two relievers for a good CF prospect, fine.

But there is so OBVIOUSLY a reason to trade for relievers, it's comical to argue otherwise.


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Offline  Re: Giants Relievers...
Posted: April 11, 2019, 5:28 AM Post
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OnTheBlack said:
But there is so OBVIOUSLY a reason to trade for relievers, it's comical to argue otherwise.


There's always a reason to make a trade, every day of the season, as you can always get better and there will always be a player out there better than the worst player on your roster who can be had for a price you can afford. So yeah, in that sense there's a reason.

But specific to the current situation? Honestly, I'd argue not really. Not yet. Unless the kind of opportunity shows up that you'd take any day, even with a good bullpen. Only 13 games into the season, bullpen pitchers have between 1 and 7 IP. 2/3 of the bullpen have ERAs way, way above their career numbers. Brewers bullpen currently has a 5.45 ERA. The 9 guys who have so far pitched out of the pen have a 3.66 ERA between them (equally weighted), which for Anderson and Guerra is mostly as starters. That would put them ~12th in the majors as thing stand now. Which isn't amazing, but it's slightly better than average. So you have to ask yourself, is there anything that suggests they won't pitch more in line with their career norms going forward? xFIP (4.18, 91 xFIP-) and SIERA (4.01), the two best publicly available predictive metrics of the kind until DRA is up and running would suggest that improvements are to be expected. It's early days with small sample sizes for those metrics too, but at this point they're still much, much, much better than using current ERA. I don't know what their internal metrics show, but unless they're alarmingly bad I'd have patience. There are still internal replacements to be evaluated, whether in the form of JJ, Nelson, Burnes/Woodruff, Fields, Hart or younger guys like Olczak, Sanchez, Brown. Give it some time to filter out the worst noise, and to try the options that can be used without having to release/waiver anyone or give up any prospects.

Another reason to do that is that the market in April is bad. Yes, trades can be made. But it's very much a sellers market; only the teams that have already given up on the season will be shopping relievers. Others will have to be absolutely blown away by the offer, and that's something we shouldn't be doing. Even the teams perfectly willing to sell will be hesistant, as there will be greater demand later in the season. There will also be an increased supply eventually, as teams drop out of the playoff hunt, but demand will increase earlier than supply does.

It's not that wins in April matters less than at any other point of the year. It's that with these small sample sizes, and the factors unique to March/April (Weather, offseason rust, adjusting to new environments etc) it's much harder to know what's what. Stats and wins and losses are so heavily influenced by individual blowup outings, by the quality and handedness of hitters and pitchers faced, by whether fly balls hit just above or just below a yellow line on a wall, by umpire performance (Could you really read much into the numbers for a pitcher, in either direction, if he'd made his debut with last night's Phil Cuzzi strike zone?), by weather, by which ballparks played in, by not being in the right place mentally after a breakup or the loss of a pet or whatever. Or by many, many other reasons that can be classified as luck or chance or temporary circumstances.

Any money or prospects spent now, is money and prospects not available to use later. None of us knows how much budget room there is, but with an already record payroll I think it's safer to lean towards the lower part of the spectrum than the top end. The later in the season a trade is made, the smaller the prorated part of the salary taken on is. At that point you also know your needs better. While one can argue about whether farm system rankings are too low on the Brewers, it's still not exactly a top system after recent trades and graduations. That needs to be managed properly. A reliever acquired at this point needs to be a "sure thing". It needs to be someone who will frequently see high-leverage situations even when/if the likes of JJ, Nelson, Burnes join the bullpen; improving the performance in low-leverage situations does very little to get more wins. There aren't many of those available out there. And for those who are, thier teams hold all the cards. I would certainly put up a high asking price and not waiver one bit on that until at least June if I was them.

Overall I'd argue that we need to wait a couple of weeks at least before making any moves involving actual prospects or any real money. 1 month is still a very small sample, 1 month of March/April baseball even more so, but at least you can glean *something* from that. At that point we'll have a better idea of where JJ and Nelson are, if some of the early-season struggles are just that or indicative of something else, of which teams might be willing to trade, and about many other things.


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