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Justin Smoak

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Offline  Justin Smoak
#1

Posted: April 23, 2019, 3:08 PM Post
Posts: 19
https://twitter.com/BREW_MATHs/status/1 ... 33702?s=19

This guy on Twitter claims to have an "internal source" telling him that the Brewers are discussing trading for Justin Smoak. Seems a little early to give up on Aguilar but I wouldn't mind adding him.


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#2

Posted: April 23, 2019, 3:29 PM Post
Posts: 4552
Location: Madison, WI
I'd believe it when I see it. Just spitballing hypotheticals I'd guess Thames would be going back though


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#3

Posted: April 23, 2019, 3:38 PM Post
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Usually where there's Smoak, there's fire.


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#4

Posted: April 23, 2019, 3:44 PM Post
Posts: 2886
Eye Black said:
Usually where there's Smoak, there's fire.

[laughing] [laughing] [laughing]


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Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#5

Posted: April 23, 2019, 5:08 PM Post
Posts: 483
Maybe Toronto is just the team that can afford to take back Aguilar and give him more slack to try and turn it around since they’re not going anywhere this year anyway. They’d downgrade talent but get more team control in the trade.


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#6

Posted: April 23, 2019, 6:28 PM Post
Posts: 638
Location: Washburn, WI
I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#7

Posted: April 23, 2019, 6:30 PM Post
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Smoak is in the last year of his contract and is making $8 million this season. I would assume the Brewers wouldn’t be interested in taking on the totality of his contract unless they were getting some salary relief in return (or the Blue Jays agreed to pay a portion).


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Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#8

Posted: April 23, 2019, 6:44 PM Post
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Posts: 13189
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Sending Thames to Toronto to finish where he began.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#9

Posted: April 23, 2019, 7:39 PM Post
Posts: 2886
RollieTime said:
I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.


Not an upgrade?

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131
2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124
This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#10

Posted: April 23, 2019, 8:29 PM Post
Posts: 638
Location: Washburn, WI
Brew crew 92 said:
RollieTime said:
I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.


Not an upgrade?

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131
2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124
This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.


Look at his stats for his career. He had one outlier season in 2017 and that’s it. Aguilar was much more productive than Smoak last season and we are trying to dump him for a guy who has one good season to his name? AND giving up a prospect to get him? While also adding roughly $8 million in payroll? This trade would make no sense in any way.


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#11

Posted: April 23, 2019, 8:49 PM Post
Posts: 2886
RollieTime said:
Brew crew 92 said:
RollieTime said:
I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.


Not an upgrade?

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131
2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124
This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.


Look at his stats for his career. He had one outlier season in 2017 and that’s it. Aguilar was much more productive than Smoak last season and we are trying to dump him for a guy who has one good season to his name? AND giving up a prospect to get him? While also adding roughly $8 million in payroll? This trade would make no sense in any way.


Some might say last year was Aguilars outlier. Diplan a decent prospect so maybe they throw in 4-5 mil


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Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#12

Posted: April 23, 2019, 8:52 PM Post
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I do like that he's a switch hitter. So sick of watching these all-or-nothing lefty power guys fanning away.


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Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#13

Posted: April 23, 2019, 9:03 PM Post
Posts: 483
RollieTime said:
Brew crew 92 said:
RollieTime said:
I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.


Not an upgrade?

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131
2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124
This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.


Look at his stats for his career. He had one outlier season in 2017 and that’s it. Aguilar was much more productive than Smoak last season and we are trying to dump him for a guy who has one good season to his name? AND giving up a prospect to get him? While also adding roughly $8 million in payroll? This trade would make no sense in any way.


So 2018 (and so far in 19) are not that good?


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#14

Posted: April 23, 2019, 9:06 PM Post
Posts: 2886
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I do like that he's a switch hitter. So sick of watching these all-or-nothing lefty power guys fanning away.


Switch hitting Travis Shaw.
Numbers eerily similar to Shaw, certainly would improve the line-up.


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#15

Posted: April 23, 2019, 9:08 PM Post
Posts: 185
Highly doubt this will happen.


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#16

Posted: April 24, 2019, 12:04 AM Post
Posts: 638
Location: Washburn, WI
Devinep said:
RollieTime said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Not an upgrade?

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131
2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124
This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.


Look at his stats for his career. He had one outlier season in 2017 and that’s it. Aguilar was much more productive than Smoak last season and we are trying to dump him for a guy who has one good season to his name? AND giving up a prospect to get him? While also adding roughly $8 million in payroll? This trade would make no sense in any way.


So 2018 (and so far in 19) are not that good?


2018 is not that good no. I don’t consider a .240 hitter to be good. Obviously he’s hitting well to start the year, but he will almost definitely finish the season hitting well below .300. He’s never hit over .270 and has only hit over .240 twice in his 9 year career. We already have plenty of guys that hit some homeruns and provide nothing else offensively. We already have our own Smoak in Thames. If he was given 500 plate appearances, he will finish in that .240/.330 range with 25 homeruns just like Smoak.


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#17

Posted: April 24, 2019, 7:38 AM Post
Posts: 4552
Location: Madison, WI
I'd consider a for sure upgrade over our current 1B situation due to the reliability and consistency of him. You know what you're gonna get basically and it's a solid hitting 1B. Look at the OBPs there as well btw. Our current guys you basically have no idea what they're gonna do. Is the upgrade worth the cost of salary and prospects, well that's a different discussion. That's why I guessed it would be Thames going back to help salary. Still, I don't really think this is too feasible.


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#18

Posted: April 24, 2019, 9:17 AM Post
Posts: 1736
Location: Madison, WI
The April mega-deal that never happens, for entertainment purposes only:

Brewers get:
RHP-Marcus Stroman
1B-Justin Smoak
RHP-Ken Giles

Blue Jays get:
1B-Eric Thames
RHP-Adrian Houser
RHP-Taylor Williams
OF-Corey Ray
RHP-Trey Supak
OF-Carlos Rodriguez

Stroman has a big reputation from the 3.09 ERA he posted in 2017. But the season before that the ERA was 4.37, the year after that the ERA was 5.54. His FIPs during those three seasons were 3.71, 3.90, 3.91. Taking the crazy ERA jumps and dips from 4.37 to 3.09 to 5.54...ERA over those three seasons was 4.10. FIP over those three seasons is 3.83. Note that he did suffer injury problems in 2018, which is going to negatively impact those numbers. However, the history shows that Stroman is likely a quality high 3's ERA type pitcher over the long run, and really has not been a front line starter to this point. The fact that he's a real small guy won't help his trade value at all.

Taking Stroman's average seasonal bWAR/fWAR from 2016-2018, it comes out to a shade under 2.5. While many would assume he would carry high trade value, based on the numbers I would only put his surplus value in the 25-30 million dollar range. And since he is off to a hot start this year, Toronto might decide to sell him right now rather than risk regression back to high 3's ERA territory or, worse yet, injury.

The three players heading to Milwaukee total 19.7 million in salary which is a pretty big number considering where the Brewers are already at. Therefore, Thames and his 6 million salary has to go to Toronto to provide a bit of salary relief.

Toronto currently has injury problems with their staff so Adrian Houser and Taylor Williams are included to immediately go onto the 25 man roster and pick up MLB innings.

Probably the weakest area of the Jays farm system would be outfielder, which would make Corey Ray a realistic target.

It would all come down to what value each side puts on Stroman and Ray. If both sides see Stroman as having 25-30 million in surplus value and Corey Ray having about 18 million in surplus value, then all the other pieces included kind of evens up everything from a surplus value standpoint.


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Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#19

Posted: April 24, 2019, 9:33 AM Post
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Posts: 13189
Location: Milwaukee, WI
I like it. Make the trade.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#20

Posted: April 24, 2019, 10:14 AM Post
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Posts: 3255
Location: California
JosephC said:
The April mega-deal that never happens, for entertainment purposes only:

Brewers get:
RHP-Marcus Stroman
1B-Justin Smoak
RHP-Ken Giles

Blue Jays get:
1B-Eric Thames
RHP-Adrian Houser
RHP-Taylor Williams
OF-Corey Ray
RHP-Trey Supak
OF-Carlos Rodriguez

Please call Stearns and get him to make this deal.


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