LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next  [ 93 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Justin Smoak

Author Message
Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#21

Posted: April 24, 2019, 10:20 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 9782
RHP-Marcus Stroman
1B-Justin Smoak
RHP-Ken Giles

How long are these guys currently under contract?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#22

Posted: April 24, 2019, 10:24 AM Post
Posts: 538
turborickey said:
RHP-Marcus Stroman
1B-Justin Smoak
RHP-Ken Giles

How long are these guys currently under contract?


As far as I can tell:

Stroman - has 1 more Arb year after this season before FA
Smoak - final year of his contract
Giles - 1 more Arb year


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#23

Posted: April 24, 2019, 10:28 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 7367
JosephC said:
The April mega-deal that never happens, for entertainment purposes only:

Brewers get:
RHP-Marcus Stroman
1B-Justin Smoak
RHP-Ken Giles

Blue Jays get:
1B-Eric Thames
RHP-Adrian Houser
RHP-Taylor Williams
OF-Corey Ray
RHP-Trey Supak
OF-Carlos Rodriguez


I really like the creativity. I fear that the Brewers are giving up too much though. Stroman should be a buy low, and Giles is kind of a head case. On paper, though, and in a vacuum, a deal like this makes a ton of sense. Which is why it probably doesn't stand a chance of happening, unfortunately.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#24

Posted: April 24, 2019, 5:21 PM Post
Posts: 273
JosephC said:
The April mega-deal that never happens, for entertainment purposes only:

Brewers get:
RHP-Marcus Stroman
1B-Justin Smoak
RHP-Ken Giles

Blue Jays get:
1B-Eric Thames
RHP-Adrian Houser
RHP-Taylor Williams
OF-Corey Ray
RHP-Trey Supak
OF-Carlos Rodriguez

Stroman has a big reputation from the 3.09 ERA he posted in 2017. But the season before that the ERA was 4.37, the year after that the ERA was 5.54. His FIPs during those three seasons were 3.71, 3.90, 3.91. Taking the crazy ERA jumps and dips from 4.37 to 3.09 to 5.54...ERA over those three seasons was 4.10. FIP over those three seasons is 3.83. Note that he did suffer injury problems in 2018, which is going to negatively impact those numbers. However, the history shows that Stroman is likely a quality high 3's ERA type pitcher over the long run, and really has not been a front line starter to this point. The fact that he's a real small guy won't help his trade value at all.

Taking Stroman's average seasonal bWAR/fWAR from 2016-2018, it comes out to a shade under 2.5. While many would assume he would carry high trade value, based on the numbers I would only put his surplus value in the 25-30 million dollar range. And since he is off to a hot start this year, Toronto might decide to sell him right now rather than risk regression back to high 3's ERA territory or, worse yet, injury.

The three players heading to Milwaukee total 19.7 million in salary which is a pretty big number considering where the Brewers are already at. Therefore, Thames and his 6 million salary has to go to Toronto to provide a bit of salary relief.

Toronto currently has injury problems with their staff so Adrian Houser and Taylor Williams are included to immediately go onto the 25 man roster and pick up MLB innings.

Probably the weakest area of the Jays farm system would be outfielder, which would make Corey Ray a realistic target.

It would all come down to what value each side puts on Stroman and Ray. If both sides see Stroman as having 25-30 million in surplus value and Corey Ray having about 18 million in surplus value, then all the other pieces included kind of evens up everything from a surplus value standpoint.


Both Williams and Houser are AAAA material and no real help. Thames is an all or nothing guy who is worse than Smoak. Supak is a back-end of rotation type prospect and Rodriguez is barley starting out. This trade would be trading money and hot now type players for prospects and throw-ins. I doubt seriously that the Jays would want anything to do with it. Not nearly enough coming back to them for what they are giving up.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#25

Posted: April 24, 2019, 6:20 PM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
wntrtxn21 said:
JosephC said:
The April mega-deal that never happens, for entertainment purposes only:

Brewers get:
RHP-Marcus Stroman
1B-Justin Smoak
RHP-Ken Giles

Blue Jays get:
1B-Eric Thames
RHP-Adrian Houser
RHP-Taylor Williams
OF-Corey Ray
RHP-Trey Supak
OF-Carlos Rodriguez

Stroman has a big reputation from the 3.09 ERA he posted in 2017. But the season before that the ERA was 4.37, the year after that the ERA was 5.54. His FIPs during those three seasons were 3.71, 3.90, 3.91. Taking the crazy ERA jumps and dips from 4.37 to 3.09 to 5.54...ERA over those three seasons was 4.10. FIP over those three seasons is 3.83. Note that he did suffer injury problems in 2018, which is going to negatively impact those numbers. However, the history shows that Stroman is likely a quality high 3's ERA type pitcher over the long run, and really has not been a front line starter to this point. The fact that he's a real small guy won't help his trade value at all.

Taking Stroman's average seasonal bWAR/fWAR from 2016-2018, it comes out to a shade under 2.5. While many would assume he would carry high trade value, based on the numbers I would only put his surplus value in the 25-30 million dollar range. And since he is off to a hot start this year, Toronto might decide to sell him right now rather than risk regression back to high 3's ERA territory or, worse yet, injury.

The three players heading to Milwaukee total 19.7 million in salary which is a pretty big number considering where the Brewers are already at. Therefore, Thames and his 6 million salary has to go to Toronto to provide a bit of salary relief.

Toronto currently has injury problems with their staff so Adrian Houser and Taylor Williams are included to immediately go onto the 25 man roster and pick up MLB innings.

Probably the weakest area of the Jays farm system would be outfielder, which would make Corey Ray a realistic target.

It would all come down to what value each side puts on Stroman and Ray. If both sides see Stroman as having 25-30 million in surplus value and Corey Ray having about 18 million in surplus value, then all the other pieces included kind of evens up everything from a surplus value standpoint.


Both Williams and Houser are AAAA material and no real help. Thames is an all or nothing guy who is worse than Smoak. Supak is a back-end of rotation type prospect and Rodriguez is barley starting out. This trade would be trading money and hot now type players for prospects and throw-ins. I doubt seriously that the Jays would want anything to do with it. Not nearly enough coming back to them for what they are giving up.


That was my first reaction when looking through the possibilities. I had actually started with Aaron Sanchez and not Stroman, but after looking through Sanchez's peripherals (not to mention the current fingernail injury), I pretty much reached the conclusion that Sanchez really shouldn't be a real trade target until he puts a string of success together. And it's been awhile since he's done so.

But when including Stroman, I definitely got the vibe of "give us your best player for a whole bunch of our junk" which I see a lot of people throw out and, frankly, I hate it when they do so.

But when looking at the individual components.....Ken Giles has very little if any trade value. From 2016-2018 his annual average fWAR/bWAR is only 0.95. So over 2019/2020 it would probably be fair to evaluate him as being worth 1.9 WAR. He makes pretty good money all things considered (14.3 million estimated since he is in arbitration). Not unreasonable to put his surplus value in the range of just 2-3 million dollars which makes him worth 1 fringe prospect. Smoak has been a 1.8 bWAR/fWAR player from 2016-2018. Last year of his deal, he probably has surplus value of about 10 million. Now if you are the Blue Jays, how many teams are going to want to trade for an .830 OPS first baseman (a fair full season projection IMO)? Now reduce the field, how many BUYERS/CONTENDING teams will want to trade for an .830 OPS first baseman? There is nothing wrong with an .830 OPS, but it's not an overwhelming figure coming out of the 1B spot. He earns 6 million this year, fair surplus value on him is 10 million dollars. That's more than Thames, who has averaged 1.25 WAR in 2017-2018, but Thames has the advantage of having that option year, so the team controls him for an additional season and if Thames proves to be a non-fit then the Blue Jays can buyout that year (1 million). So Smoak has more value than Thames, but it is probably only in the area of 3-4 million surplus dollars. Frankly, a Giles/Smoak for Thames/role-player prospect/fringe prospect is a pretty even deal. For the sake of this scenario, let's say that translates to Giles/Smoak for Thames/Adrian Houser/Carlos Rodriguez...even though I would classify Rodriguez as more of a role-player prospect than fringe prospect which would swing the value to the Jay's side.

I've already gone on about Stroman and his past WAR/ERA/FIP and explained the 25-30 million surplus value. Ray is a back end top 100 prospect, which is about 21 million in prospect surplus value. However, with his poor offensive start to this season, I'll knock him down to 18 million. Supak, solid role player prospect, fits in at 5.5 million in surplus value. Williams, probably somewhere between role-player prospect and fringe prospect (normally I value at 2.2 million). So 18 + 5.5 + let's say 3.5 for Williams = 27 total in surplus value. It's sort of in the range of what Stroman should be valued at IMO.

But no question this is a "quantity" trade for the Blue Jays that will save them some money and could turn out to be a sell high with Stroman considering his somewhat erratic track record. IMO the entire Smoak/Giles/Thames/etc (everyone not named Stroman or Ray) is just evening out. This comes down to how the Brewers view Stroman and how the Jays view Ray. Smoak is the subject of this thread so he is included and that gets Thames included. But that's all just window dressing for the Stroman/Ray swap. Then, of course, the Brewers need to add because Stroman is worth more than Ray. I think the overall package does a pretty good job. Note that all of the five "young players" headed to the Jays are not Aaron Wilkerson, older-type MiLB vets who really don't have upside anymore. Houser and Williams both still have a solid chance of being 25-man roster "automatics"). Ray is in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospects. Supak is a solid role-player prospect who's stock has gone up every year since joining the Brewers and he is off to a good start this year. And I specifically picked Rodriguez because I think he has shown to be the best of the Brewers "latest wave" of international prospects and figured he would be a necessity over someone like Larry Ernesto (who also appears to be a pretty decent prospect). So while it's "quantity," it's not like it's Aaron Wilkerson/Bubba Derby/C.J. Hinojosa quantity, it's definitely a significant cut above that.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#26

Posted: April 24, 2019, 6:27 PM Post
Posts: 3573
Brew crew 92 said:
RollieTime said:
I don’t see Smoak as being an upgrade at first at all. Plus adding his $8 million contract over Aguilar’s half a million wouldn’t make much sense. Adding that payroll for a guy that wouldn’t even be an upgrade isn’t really worth it.


Not an upgrade?

2017- 38 hr .270 .355 .529 .883 131
2018- 25 hr .243 .350 .458 .808 124
This year even better .313 .439 .1021 176

If we’re gonna ask for salary relief, they going to want bigger prospect package. They won’t want Thames and his salary.

Smoak > Aguilar & diplan.


And the three years before those his combined slash numbers looked like this;

.216/.297/.403

Those were his prime years. If you cherry pick stats, you can really make them look however you want.

Aguilar last year .274/.352/.539 134 and 35 HR's 108 RBI's. So Smoak has basically had one really good year and that's
not as good as Aguilar's was last year with the bat.

I'd rather stick with the young guy than add another 1B only player to this roster and in the process likely get rid of a lot of your payroll flexibility.

I'd rather stick with Aguilar. I still believe he's going to turn it around and improve his offense.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#27

Posted: April 24, 2019, 6:39 PM Post
Posts: 3573
Brew crew 92 said:
Some might say last year was Aguilars outlier. Diplan a decent prospect so maybe they throw in 4-5 mil




Those people wouldn't know what the definition of the word "outlier" was then. They may believe it will end up being an outlier, but given that he's played one full season, I don't know how you can argue that season is an "outlier" in his MLB career. Of course, he also put up a pretty solid partial season in 2017.

You need more than one point on the graph to create an outlier. At best if you want to use the 133 games he appeared in, many as a pinch hitter, he put up a .837 OPS, a .891 OPS and he's struggled for 21 games this season.


Moreover, this isn't fantasy baseball. I've seen where you've wanted both Kimbrel AND Kuchel, you now want to dump the young guy we have for the next 4 years for a vet who had a career year that was basically equal to Aguilar's season last year.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#28

Posted: April 24, 2019, 6:53 PM Post
Posts: 2005
HiAndTight said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Some might say last year was Aguilars outlier. Diplan a decent prospect so maybe they throw in 4-5 mil




Those people wouldn't know what the definition of the word "outlier" was then. They may believe it will end up being an outlier, but given that he's played one full season, I don't know how you can argue that season is an "outlier" in his MLB career. Of course, he also put up a pretty solid partial season in 2017.

You need more than one point on the graph to create an outlier. At best if you want to use the 133 games he appeared in, many as a pinch hitter, he put up a .837 OPS, a .891 OPS and he's struggled for 21 games this season.


Moreover, this isn't fantasy baseball. I've seen where you've wanted both Kimbrel AND Kuchel, you now want to dump the young guy we have for the next 4 years for a vet who had a career year that was basically equal to Aguilar's season last year.


Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#29

Posted: April 24, 2019, 7:06 PM Post
Posts: 2005
HiAndTight said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Some might say last year was Aguilars outlier. Diplan a decent prospect so maybe they throw in 4-5 mil




Those people wouldn't know what the definition of the word "outlier" was then. They may believe it will end up being an outlier, but given that he's played one full season, I don't know how you can argue that season is an "outlier" in his MLB career. Of course, he also put up a pretty solid partial season in 2017.

You need more than one point on the graph to create an outlier. At best if you want to use the 133 games he appeared in, many as a pinch hitter, he put up a .837 OPS, a .891 OPS and he's struggled for 21 games this season.


Moreover, this isn't fantasy baseball. I've seen where you've wanted both Kimbrel AND Kuchel, you now want to dump the young guy we have for the next 4 years for a vet who had a career year that was basically equal to Aguilar's season last year.


I like smoak a lot more than you do, I don’t want to trade Aguilar, I just don’t think they will want thames. They have a big left handed hitting first baseman rowdy tellez, 24 year old prospect they like. Might not want Aguilar, not sure any one would as bad as he looks right now.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#30

Posted: April 24, 2019, 9:13 PM Post
Posts: 1232
Brew crew 92 said:

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.



What information do we have that suggests Kimbrel is going to be had for 9-12 million? Or that he'd even be cheaper than Kuechel?

That's at best speculation that runs contrary to everything I've heard about the two thus far.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#31

Posted: April 25, 2019, 5:58 AM Post
Posts: 2005
OnTheBlack said:
Brew crew 92 said:

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.



What information do we have that suggests Kimbrel is going to be had for 9-12 million? Or that he'd even be cheaper than Kuechel?

That's at best speculation that runs contrary to everything I've heard about the two thus far.


I’ve answered that question in thread or multiple threads already.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#32

Posted: April 25, 2019, 6:08 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 7367
Brew crew 92 said:
OnTheBlack said:
Brew crew 92 said:

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.



What information do we have that suggests Kimbrel is going to be had for 9-12 million? Or that he'd even be cheaper than Kuechel?

That's at best speculation that runs contrary to everything I've heard about the two thus far.


I’ve answered that question in thread or multiple threads already.


You speculated. Please stop making factual-like statements based on guesses. Think about it ... if Kimbrel was willing to sign for $9 million, wouldn't he be on a team?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#33

Posted: April 25, 2019, 6:26 AM Post
Posts: 2005
Ok, I’ll try this one more time.

It’s been reported Kimbrel’s asking price down to 3 @ 45

Sign him for that.

If this year’s budget needs to backload 3 mil of the 15

Then the prorated 15 mil salary is 12 mil for this year.

15 mil - 3(backloaded) -3 (prorated)= 9 mil for this year, 16 for 2020, 17 for 2021.

If can’t be backloaded it’s 12 mil for this year 15 for the next 2.

If the 15 mil doesn’t fit in next year’s Mark A/ Stearns budget trade him.

Personally I’d keep him, with 28 mil off the books in Grandal and moose, plus the 9 mil extra every team in baseball getting with the new Fox deal.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#34

Posted: April 25, 2019, 6:37 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 7367
Brew crew 92 said:
Ok, I’ll try this one more time.

It’s been reported Kimbrel’s asking price down to 3 @ 45

Sign him for that.

If this year’s budget needs to backload 3 mil of the 15

Then the prorated 15 mil salary is 12 mil for this year.

15 mil - 3(backloaded) -3 (prorated)= 9 mil for this year, 16 for 2020, 17 for 2021.

If can’t be backloaded it’s 12 mil for this year 15 for the next 2.

If the 15 mil doesn’t fit in next year’s Mark A/ Stearns budget trade him.

Personally I’d keep him, with 28 mil off the books in Grandal and moose, plus the 9 mil extra every team in baseball getting with the new Fox deal.


3 years/$45 million guaranteed is NOT $9 million. When you talk contract, you need to represent the full value of the deal, not the first year payout minus backloading. And it doesn't mention anywhere that Kimbrel would take a prorated deal, so that is 100% speculation.

Now ... instead of turning this into yet another thread that devolves into arguing about Craig Kimbrel (who I think has no chance of being a Brewer), lets keep this on Smoak. There is a whole thread devoted to Kimbrel that is collecting dust, just like him.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#35

Posted: April 25, 2019, 6:43 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 7967
For the last time, please keep Kimbrel discussion in Kimbrel threads. Obviously, there can be some relevant crossover, but this goes way beyond that, once again.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#36

Posted: April 25, 2019, 6:46 AM Post
Posts: 2005
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Ok, I’ll try this one more time.

It’s been reported Kimbrel’s asking price down to 3 @ 45

Sign him for that.

If this year’s budget needs to backload 3 mil of the 15

Then the prorated 15 mil salary is 12 mil for this year.

15 mil - 3(backloaded) -3 (prorated)= 9 mil for this year, 16 for 2020, 17 for 2021.

If can’t be backloaded it’s 12 mil for this year 15 for the next 2.

If the 15 mil doesn’t fit in next year’s Mark A/ Stearns budget trade him.

Personally I’d keep him, with 28 mil off the books in Grandal and moose, plus the 9 mil extra every team in baseball getting with the new Fox deal.


3 years/$45 million guaranteed is NOT $9 million. When you talk contract, you need to represent the full value of the deal, not the first year payout minus backloading. And it doesn't mention anywhere that Kimbrel would take a prorated deal, so that is 100% speculation.

Now ... instead of turning this into yet another thread that devolves into arguing about Craig Kimbrel (who I think has no chance of being a Brewer), lets keep this on Smoak. There is a whole thread devoted to Kimbrel that is collecting dust, just like him.


I have represented the full value of the deal in numerous posts, the 9 mil you referring to only time I didn’t.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#37

Posted: April 25, 2019, 7:19 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 9782
Brew crew 92 said:
OnTheBlack said:
Brew crew 92 said:

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.



What information do we have that suggests Kimbrel is going to be had for 9-12 million? Or that he'd even be cheaper than Kuechel?

That's at best speculation that runs contrary to everything I've heard about the two thus far.


I’ve answered that question in thread or multiple threads already.



If you have to continuously answer the same question in multiple threads, maybe that tells you something?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Justin Smoak
#38

Posted: April 26, 2019, 9:30 AM Post
Posts: 3573
Brew crew 92 said:
OnTheBlack said:
Brew crew 92 said:

Love to have Kuechel, could use a 7 inning pitcher, and battle tested playoff pitcher but at 18-20 mil even prorated 15-17 probably not going to happen.

I’d prefer the best relief pitcher in the world. For 9-12 mil probably more affordable than Kuechel.



What information do we have that suggests Kimbrel is going to be had for 9-12 million? Or that he'd even be cheaper than Kuechel?

That's at best speculation that runs contrary to everything I've heard about the two thus far.


I’ve answered that question in thread or multiple threads already.


You've done so by massaging the numbers so they fit your number. You're working as both GM, Agent, AND player and saying, "why not do this," while ignoring the fact that the player has not given any indication AT ALL that he's willing to play for 9 million dollars this year. He wanted 6/118. His price has come down. I doubt it's fallen down below Britton or Ottavino.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#39

Posted: May 27, 2019, 11:44 AM Post
Posts: 2005
Not a right handed hitting first baseman, but a better, more professional hitter than Thames. Get him away from the rebuilding jays to a contending brewers club could inspire even more from him.

Smoak > Thames & Williams & Diplan


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Justin Smoak
#40

Posted: May 27, 2019, 11:53 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 12133
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Why would a rebuilding Toronto want Thames?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next  [ 93 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: balsamlaker, Eye Black, Joey Meyer Bombs, JosephC, OldHeidelberg and 11 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test