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Extending Moose

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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#41

Posted: June 10, 2019, 10:59 AM Post
Posts: 397
He is obviously a good fit for Miller Park so has more value to us than many teams. Seems like a guy who wants to be here and I think works out with Braun and Yelich in southern Cal during the off season. As someone above suggested if he would do 2/24 right now they should do it, maybe even 3/36.


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#42

Posted: June 10, 2019, 11:18 AM Post
Posts: 10806
tmwiese55 said:
Resigning Moose does kind of seem like the logical fix to the 1B issue after this year.


What if he falls back to reality? Then we have an overpriced 1B who isn't even good for the position. People think someone is terrible when they OPS .850 over there (Thames).

Extending Moose sounds like a way to continue our disappoint for years. Small sample improvements are dangerous. Aguilar looked like some new and improved hero over there most of last year and that surely didn't translate long term.


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#43

Posted: June 10, 2019, 11:23 AM Post
Posts: 4193
Location: Madison, WI
MrTPlush said:
tmwiese55 said:
Resigning Moose does kind of seem like the logical fix to the 1B issue after this year.


What if he falls back to reality? Then we have an overpriced 1B who isn't even good for the position. People think someone is terrible when they OPS .850 over there (Thames)


Well I was more figuring that Shaw would move to 1B and moose back to 3B. Not picking up Thames option partially pays for the contract of Moose, note I'm not a Thames basher at all as he's been fine. If you lose Moose might as well just keep Thames at the relatively low cost (assuming he does roughly what he's doing now for rest of year). And really Moose back to reality is still competent consistent MLB player. But yes of course it comes down to price on whether you do it. I simply meant the guys on your team already, good relationships with the team, hasn't been offered big contracts elsewhere, and you have this need next year (maybe even two needs if Shaw doesn't rebound). Just seems logical to try and keep him around rather than trying to find someone else. Hopefully it works financially to do it. But if someone offers him a 4/60 or something like that you just have to walk away.


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#44

Posted: June 10, 2019, 12:14 PM Post
Posts: 484
I'd really hate to have a .270 hitter that hits 30-35 hrs


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#45

Posted: June 10, 2019, 12:30 PM Post
Posts: 10806
mlloyd10 said:
I'd really hate to have a .270 hitter that hits 30-35 hrs


He has hit .270 once and has hit 30+ homers once. I do find it pretty concerning he has a .309 OBP for his career and his ungodly year (2019 so far) his OBP is .337. That is pretty darn bad. Sure not a huge concern when he is hitting like he has so far, but betting on that to continue is pretty risky and wishful.

Can he actually consistently hit .270 or hit 30+ homers....his career track record would say definitely not. And his career started at 23 for a full season and he is now in season 30.


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#46

Posted: June 10, 2019, 12:39 PM Post
Posts: 484
2015-current, .268 hitter average 35 hrs per 162 games.


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#47

Posted: June 10, 2019, 12:56 PM Post
Posts: 10806
mlloyd10 said:
2015-current, .268 hitter average 35 hrs per 162 games.


I don't care for his homerun total in 162 games unless you are telling me he is going to play 162 games. Nor do I really care for his torrid start to the year to be added like that. I would rather see that total at the end of the year.

Not saying he can't or won't be good...or that he hasn't magically improved overnight...but lets not act like it is a sure thing and major regression won't show up. It is probably more likely than him actually being this good long term.


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#48

Posted: June 10, 2019, 1:00 PM Post
Posts: 17324
I'm not real current on modern statistics but batting average is very far down on the list of things I care much about. I'll take a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP any day over a .275 hitter with a career .310 OBP. Moose is having a very nice season; unfortunately long-term he has not shown a real strong ability to get on base.


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#49

Posted: June 10, 2019, 1:20 PM Post
Posts: 4518
Location: New Berlin, WI
adambr2 said:
I'm not real current on modern statistics but batting average is very far down on the list of things I care much about. I'll take a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP any day over a .275 hitter with a career .310 OBP. Moose is having a very nice season; unfortunately long-term he has not shown a real strong ability to get on base.


I personally think you're a bit low on the value of batting average. A single is significantly more valuable than a walk. The 2 lines you put down, in my opinion are pretty close to similar value. The single scores a guy from 2nd, or moves a guy from 1st to 3rd.

All that said, not sure I want to extend Moose. Hiura should be the everyday 2b now, but will definitely be there very soon. We have Shaw at 3b, and while he's not as good in my opinion...he's under team control and will be cheaper. And team control/value is the only way we have a chance to compete long term. We can plug the occasional hole with someone like Moose/Grandal, but that might not be the best use of very limited resources. I simply think Moose is going to play his way into a 3/42 type deal this offseason...and I don't know that that's the best use of payroll. Pitching needs to be addressed at some point.


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Online  Re: Extending Moose
#50

Posted: June 10, 2019, 1:23 PM Post
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Posts: 1959
adambr2 said:
I'm not real current on modern statistics but batting average is very far down on the list of things I care much about. I'll take a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP any day over a .275 hitter with a career .310 OBP. Moose is having a very nice season; unfortunately long-term he has not shown a real strong ability to get on base.


I agree with this if the K rate is the same. I'm wary of low avg., high OBP, high K rate guys as they basically feast on bad pitchers and get owned by good pitchers. Moose is pretty good at making contact as opposed to a Thames. Thames cannot slow his bat down in order to even foul off a borderline pitch, so he just takes it (good strategy for him) resulting in either a BB or a K. It seems like Moose can actually fight off good pitches or even hit them for line drive singles/doubles. That means he'll BB less and K less...but put more balls in play and have more success against guys who can really work the corners.

ALSO: this is only from my observations. I'd appreciate it if the more advanced stat keepers could either corroborate or correct my observations.


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#51

Posted: June 10, 2019, 3:52 PM Post
Posts: 4381
MrTPlush said:
mlloyd10 said:
I'd really hate to have a .270 hitter that hits 30-35 hrs


He has hit .270 once and has hit 30+ homers once. I do find it pretty concerning he has a .309 OBP for his career and his ungodly year (2019 so far) his OBP is .337. That is pretty darn bad. Sure not a huge concern when he is hitting like he has so far, but betting on that to continue is pretty risky and wishful.

Can he actually consistently hit .270 or hit 30+ homers....his career track record would say definitely not. And his career started at 23 for a full season and he is now in season 30.


The other thing is... if he continues at this sort of pace, Moose will have hit at least 28 homers in the last three years. In the last five, it has been 22 or more in 4 out of 5 (2016 was injury-shortened).

OBP skills are not as good as some others, but he's hit .270 or better 3 out of 5 years. OPS+ has been 107 or better the last five years.

Put it this way, I think Moustakas is a known quantity, who gets a boost playing at Miller Park. I'd be comfortable exercising the mutual option in 2020, and then extending him for 2021 and 2022 at 2/$25 million.


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#52

Posted: June 10, 2019, 4:07 PM Post
Posts: 17324
Can we please just drop the mutual option thing? It has about a .1% chance of being exercised. It's just a 3M dollar deferment, nothing more.


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Offline  Re: Extending Moose
#53

Posted: June 10, 2019, 7:16 PM Post
Posts: 911
KeithStone53151 said:
adambr2 said:
I'm not real current on modern statistics but batting average is very far down on the list of things I care much about. I'll take a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP any day over a .275 hitter with a career .310 OBP. Moose is having a very nice season; unfortunately long-term he has not shown a real strong ability to get on base.


I personally think you're a bit low on the value of batting average. A single is significantly more valuable than a walk. The 2 lines you put down, in my opinion are pretty close to similar value. The single scores a guy from 2nd, or moves a guy from 1st to 3rd.


Singles aren't really on average *that* much more valuable, simply because a large proportion of plate appearances come with no one on base, when they're worth the same. What's really missing though, is power. If the extra points of AVG are all singles, then the stat line with the higher OBP is a lot more valuable. One way to look at it would be to look up the linear weights for walks vs singles and go from there.

Another, less accurate but perhaps simpler, way is to simply look at OPS. If all the extra hits (i.e the difference between the .250 and .275 batting averages) are singles, then the first stat line would have a 40 points higher OBP but a 25 point lower SLG, for an OPS 15 points higher. If all the extra hits were doubles, the first stat line would still have a 40 points higher OBP, but a 50 point lower SLG and thus a 10 points lower OPS. As 1 pt of OBP is worth more than 1 pt of SLG, one would have to take that into account as well to find the exact breakeven point for XBH, but I'm way too tired for that right now.

Or in other words, give me the .350 OBP in most cases. But one really needs .SLG or .ISO as well in order to judge properly.


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