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Pitching targets

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Offline  Pitching targets
#1

Posted: May 03, 2019, 9:01 AM Post
Posts: 34
With our pitching staff in disarray, who are some targets we can pursue to stabilize our staff? Do you prefer to sign one of the FA if the $ is there, spend prospect capital to get an upgrade, or ride or die with the pitcher not in our organization?

FA:
Dallas Kuechel
Craig Kimbrel

Trade:
Madison Bumgarner
Will Smith
Marcus Stroman
Aaron Sanchez
Zack Greinke


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#2

Posted: May 03, 2019, 9:23 AM Post
Posts: 1232
Vollbc74 said:
With our pitching staff in disarray, who are some targets we can pursue to stabilize our staff? Do you prefer to sign one of the FA if the $ is there, spend prospect capital to get an upgrade, or ride or die with the pitcher not in our organization?

FA:
Dallas Kuechel
Craig Kimbrel

Trade:
Madison Bumgarner
Will Smith
Marcus Stroman
Aaron Sanchez
Zack Greinke


There are too many variables. I've long been a huge fan of Greinke, well before we traded for him and after. But what does that deal include? How much is AZ gonna eat? Because if they're not taking back salary, we might as well sign Kimbrel and Kuechel instead.

If they're going to pay 60 pct of his salary to get prospects back, who are those prospects? He's certainly not the Greinke that pitched in Milwaukee as he's lost his FB velo, but he would be a great addition.


The question is too vague to answer directly, who knows what the Giants want from one of the most successful players in franchise history in terms of team success? I'd assume sentimental value is going to be included in that price. I don't know how good Stroman really is, same with Sanchez.

Ultimately the Brewers are going to probably do both. They're going go keep throwing their guys out there and it's tough to envision them not getting better. In another 2 months, who knows who could be ready. Sanchez, Rasmussen, Zack and Daniel Brown could be playing roles in our rotation.

At the same time, Stearns is also likely searching for good arms on the trade market.

Not trying to be difficult, but they'll almost certainly do both. At this point last year, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and others did not look like they'd play significant roles in a post-season push. A year later we expected them to be key contributors and they've struggled.


The only thing I'd commit to is saying I do not want to give Kimbrel or Kuechel multiple years. Give them a little more this year, but there is a loaded FA class next year, so the Brewers could either get some bargains, or with the money that's coming off the books this year, they could try and sign and impact pitcher. But nobody is a fan of 15+ million for multiple years of a reliever and I'll just speak for myself, but I am not a fan of multiple years at 15-18 million for a soft tossing, left hander who's not an ace and who I think could really dip if he loses 2 MPH over the next 2+ years on his fastball.


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#3

Posted: May 03, 2019, 9:50 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
Vollbc74 said:
if the $ is there, spend prospect capital to get an upgrade


I started looking at what could be realistic possibilities about a week ago, and those two things are a major problem. Attanasio was surprisingly open about his desire to add Kimbrel, and since he is not yet signed, IMO it's pretty solid evidence that the Brewers are not going to be adding another 15-20 million dollars in salary. So right now, guys like Kimbrel, Keuchel, Greinke or maybe even someone like Samardzija just aren't real good possibilities. Add in that the Brewers two best candidates to include to provide some salary relief (Anderson and Thames), are looking more and more like they could evolve into necessary pieces for this year's team. And prospect capital, there just isn't that much of that if the Brewers take Hiura off the board. Not to mention that a big chunk of last year's prospect capital was the <1 year players (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta), and we can't say anything other than the value of those three players has dropped significantly in the last few months.

They could take a real big gamble on someone like Aaron Sanchez, who the Blue Jays probably would trade because of health and some really ugly peripherals, but top guys are certainly looking out of reach at this point. I think they end up playing with what they got and do a couple of the minor Swarzak/Soria deals in July.


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#4

Posted: May 03, 2019, 11:36 AM Post
Posts: 34
OnTheBlack said:
Vollbc74 said:
With our pitching staff in disarray, who are some targets we can pursue to stabilize our staff? Do you prefer to sign one of the FA if the $ is there, spend prospect capital to get an upgrade, or ride or die with the pitcher not in our organization?

FA:
Dallas Kuechel
Craig Kimbrel

Trade:
Madison Bumgarner
Will Smith
Marcus Stroman
Aaron Sanchez
Zack Greinke


There are too many variables. I've long been a huge fan of Greinke, well before we traded for him and after. But what does that deal include? How much is AZ gonna eat? Because if they're not taking back salary, we might as well sign Kimbrel and Kuechel instead.

If they're going to pay 60 pct of his salary to get prospects back, who are those prospects? He's certainly not the Greinke that pitched in Milwaukee as he's lost his FB velo, but he would be a great addition.


The question is too vague to answer directly, who knows what the Giants want from one of the most successful players in franchise history in terms of team success? I'd assume sentimental value is going to be included in that price. I don't know how good Stroman really is, same with Sanchez.

Ultimately the Brewers are going to probably do both. They're going go keep throwing their guys out there and it's tough to envision them not getting better. In another 2 months, who knows who could be ready. Sanchez, Rasmussen, Zack and Daniel Brown could be playing roles in our rotation.

At the same time, Stearns is also likely searching for good arms on the trade market.

Not trying to be difficult, but they'll almost certainly do both. At this point last year, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and others did not look like they'd play significant roles in a post-season push. A year later we expected them to be key contributors and they've struggled.


The only thing I'd commit to is saying I do not want to give Kimbrel or Kuechel multiple years. Give them a little more this year, but there is a loaded FA class next year, so the Brewers could either get some bargains, or with the money that's coming off the books this year, they could try and sign and impact pitcher. But nobody is a fan of 15+ million for multiple years of a reliever and I'll just speak for myself, but I am not a fan of multiple years at 15-18 million for a soft tossing, left hander who's not an ace and who I think could really dip if he loses 2 MPH over the next 2+ years on his fastball.


I agree there are too many variables to accurately predict what they will do, this was just more of a consolidation thread of ideas to improve our vastly underperforming pitching staff.


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Online  Re: Pitching targets
#5

Posted: May 03, 2019, 12:21 PM Post
Posts: 3257
I've always liked Stroman, even while he was struggling the past few years.


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#6

Posted: May 03, 2019, 2:56 PM Post
Posts: 3573
JosephC said:
Vollbc74 said:
if the $ is there, spend prospect capital to get an upgrade


I started looking at what could be realistic possibilities about a week ago, and those two things are a major problem. Attanasio was surprisingly open about his desire to add Kimbrel, and since he is not yet signed, IMO it's pretty solid evidence that the Brewers are not going to be adding another 15-20 million dollars in salary. So right now, guys like Kimbrel, Keuchel, Greinke or maybe even someone like Samardzija just aren't real good possibilities. Add in that the Brewers two best candidates to include to provide some salary relief (Anderson and Thames), are looking more and more like they could evolve into necessary pieces for this year's team. And prospect capital, there just isn't that much of that if the Brewers take Hiura off the board. Not to mention that a big chunk of last year's prospect capital was the <1 year players (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta), and we can't say anything other than the value of those three players has dropped significantly in the last few months.

They could take a real big gamble on someone like Aaron Sanchez, who the Blue Jays probably would trade because of health and some really ugly peripherals, but top guys are certainly looking out of reach at this point. I think they end up playing with what they got and do a couple of the minor Swarzak/Soria deals in July.



Can you refresh my memory, other than saying, "we're trying" or something to that effect at Miler Park, what did Mark A say about Kimbrel?

Anyway, there are way too many unknowns here for me to come to the conclusion you did for the reasons you did. Do we have any idea yet if Kimbrel is willing to take a one year deal?

Do we know if Stearns even wants Kimbrel? It could be Mark A has learned his lesson and is letting the GM make the decisions instead of "doing him favors" and signing checks for pitchers.


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#7

Posted: May 03, 2019, 3:00 PM Post
Posts: 3573
stoutdude04 said:
I've always liked Stroman, even while he was struggling the past few years.



He's not bad, just a little guy(5'8) and doesn't get a lot of K's, injury history...

We could certainly do worse.


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#8

Posted: May 03, 2019, 5:20 PM Post
Posts: 538
stoutdude04 said:
I've always liked Stroman, even while he was struggling the past few years.


Same here, love his enthusiasm for the game. If you follow the guy on twitter he's constantly nerding out about/studying other pitchers' stuff and the movement they get. Would love to have the guy on the Brewers.


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Online  Re: Pitching targets
#9

Posted: May 03, 2019, 5:25 PM Post
Posts: 3257
HiAndTight said:
stoutdude04 said:
I've always liked Stroman, even while he was struggling the past few years.



He's not bad, just a little guy(5'8) and doesn't get a lot of K's, injury history...

We could certainly do worse.


Yea, not saying hes the best option. Just always someone I've liked and wouldnt mind if the price is right. Now. What is that price? No idea.


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#10

Posted: May 04, 2019, 5:13 AM Post
Posts: 273
HiAndTight said:
stoutdude04 said:
I've always liked Stroman, even while he was struggling the past few years.



He's not bad, just a little guy(5'8) and doesn't get a lot of K's, injury history...

We could certainly do worse.


Stroman was really bad last year, but is pitching well this year despite his 1-4 record. The sticking point is the asking price of the Bluejays.


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Online  Re: Pitching targets
#11

Posted: May 04, 2019, 8:09 AM Post
Posts: 2005
1.) kimbrel
3 years at 45 plus the loss of a 4th round pick. I would/been arguing the most impactful arm available. Prospect capitol would be less than any team, probably pro-rated cost of 12 mil this year. We’d have the 2 most dominant bullpen arms in the world totally shutting down team’s ability to score late in games.

2.) Colome
Signed at 7+ mil this year and next year final Arby. White Sox closer having a very good year. I would think expensive prospect wise. Hahn and Stearns make a lot of trades together.

3.) Herrera
Signed 2 years 18 mil with 10 mil club and 1 mil buy-out. Set-up man with the Sox, also pitching well, probably not quite as expensive as colome.

4.) Givens
First year arby at 2+ mil, dominant stuff, gonna be very very expensive prospect wise.

If we’re not going to sign kimbrel, I’d take either of the Sox relievers, quality, experienced high leverage pen arms that can not only help this year but next as well.


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#12

Posted: May 04, 2019, 3:22 PM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
Mike Minor. Although the Brewers might not have the prospect capital to match up with the Rangers (Hiura has way too much value to include, Minor would very likely command Ray + another top 8 prospect + another top 15 prospect IMO). Minor can also block deals to 10 clubs.


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#13

Posted: May 05, 2019, 10:48 AM Post
Posts: 215
With Kimbrel and Keuchel still available at the cost of salary and a pick, why are some people discussing or even advocating giving up even more prospects from a somewhat depleted farm system - (particularly for rentals)?

Let's be honest - this team doesn't have the draft capital to get a lot of the names being mentioned (without either giving up on some of the young starters who have struggled so far and/or finishing the depletion of the farm system). If there's a trade it's more likely to be a buy-low deal on someone on a team who wants to get out from under the deal.


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Online  Re: Pitching targets
#14

Posted: May 05, 2019, 11:09 AM Post
Posts: 2005
anglotiger said:
With Kimbrel and Keuchel still available at the cost of salary and a pick, why are some people discussing or even advocating giving up even more prospects from a somewhat depleted farm system - (particularly for rentals)?

Let's be honest - this team doesn't have the draft capital to get a lot of the names being mentioned (without either giving up on some of the young starters who have struggled so far and/or finishing the depletion of the farm system). If there's a trade it's more likely to be a buy-low deal on someone on a team who wants to get out from under the deal.


Because this is a small market team, and we just don’t have the funds to sign them.


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#15

Posted: May 05, 2019, 12:14 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1665
I don't see either being signed before the draft anymore.

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#16

Posted: May 05, 2019, 1:16 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1103
Location: Baltimore, MD
young guns said:
I don't see either being signed before the draft anymore.

Agreed. With teams no longer having to sacrifice draft picks, their pool of suitors will increase and the amount of money they're willing to pay will jump as well (maybe not to the point they would have paid in the offseason, but certainly more than they would at any point between now and in a few weeks when they no longer having to give up a pick). There's likely not much incentive for either pitcher to sign with a team before the draft at this point.

Not sure if an increase in suitors and the fact that the value change of not giving up a pick is less for the Crew than other teams (ie. they'd currently be giving up a lesser draft pick than other teams) takes the Brewers out of the running or not. Despite the lower draft pick, the Brewers may still value that pick more than other teams. Add to that that of all the contenders, the Brewers have arguably the most to gain by improving their pitching, and they may still be in a good position to take advantage of being able to add another pitcher or two without trading away any prospects.


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Online  Re: Pitching targets
#17

Posted: May 05, 2019, 1:24 PM Post
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Posts: 9704
I would still like the Brewers to add either of the 2 Imo either will help the brewers staff.


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#18

Posted: May 05, 2019, 4:10 PM Post
Posts: 2005
MrAllen said:
young guns said:
I don't see either being signed before the draft anymore.

Agreed. With teams no longer having to sacrifice draft picks, their pool of suitors will increase and the amount of money they're willing to pay will jump as well (maybe not to the point they would have paid in the offseason, but certainly more than they would at any point between now and in a few weeks when they no longer having to give up a pick). There's likely not much incentive for either pitcher to sign with a team before the draft at this point.

Not sure if an increase in suitors and the fact that the value change of not giving up a pick is less for the Crew than other teams (ie. they'd currently be giving up a lesser draft pick than other teams) takes the Brewers out of the running or not. Despite the lower draft pick, the Brewers may still value that pick more than other teams. Add to that that of all the contenders, the Brewers have arguably the most to gain by improving their pitching, and they may still be in a good position to take advantage of being able to add another pitcher or two without trading away any prospects.


Doubt losing a 4th round pick has anything to do with the crew’s apparent lack of interest in signing either pitcher, money money money is obviously the reason they won’t be doing business.


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Offline  Re: Pitching targets
#19

Posted: May 05, 2019, 6:45 PM Post
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Posts: 5363
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Brew crew 92 said:

Doubt losing a 4th round pick has anything to do with the crew’s apparent lack of interest in signing either pitcher, money money money is obviously the reason they won’t be doing business.


Seems like you don't know how the MLB draft works. It is not just losing a 4th round pick it is losing the money associated with that pick. What this means is that the Brewers will have less money to sign their picks. So if the Brewers lose another pick they will have to be more conservative in drafting a player meaning they can't go after a high school player or a junior college player who drops in the draft as they won't have enough in the pool to sign said player.

It is not just losing a draft it is losing the slot pool that is associated with the pick that is what will hurt the Brewers. The less slot pool money you have the less you have to give for a signing bonus. This is a MLB sanction that teams can not get around. This is not just a money money money issue it is a futuristic look at the team the team has to keep on bringing in young talent and giving away too many draft picks in one year extremely hurts a team like the Brewers.


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Online  Re: Pitching targets
#20

Posted: May 05, 2019, 7:07 PM Post
Posts: 2005
nate82 said:
Brew crew 92 said:

Doubt losing a 4th round pick has anything to do with the crew’s apparent lack of interest in signing either pitcher, money money money is obviously the reason they won’t be doing business.


Seems like you don't know how the MLB draft works. It is not just losing a 4th round pick it is losing the money associated with that pick. What this means is that the Brewers will have less money to sign their picks. So if the Brewers lose another pick they will have to be more conservative in drafting a player meaning they can't go after a high school player or a junior college player who drops in the draft as they won't have enough in the pool to sign said player.

It is not just losing a draft it is losing the slot pool that is associated with the pick that is what will hurt the Brewers. The less slot pool money you have the less you have to give for a signing bonus. This is a MLB sanction that teams can not get around. This is not just a money money money issue it is a futuristic look at the team the team has to keep on bringing in young talent and giving away too many draft picks in one year extremely hurts a team like the Brewers.


It’s still less much less comparatively to other teams, slot $ and pick. Signing Gio, eliminates Kuechel imo, and the crew doesn’t want to spend the money on kimbrel, never did from the get go.


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