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The Madison Bumgarner Thread: Burnes for Bumgarner [and other trade ideas]: would you do it?

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Offline Roderick Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#21

Posted: May 30, 2019, 9:35 AM Post
Posts: 2114
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Take a look at the hauls teams have typically gotten back for rentals the last few years. Other than the stupid deal the Cubs did for Chapman, the returns haven't been astronomical.


Usually, but I bet the Giants FO think they really have to show something for this trade to the "regular" fan. I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants pay most of the MadBum contract or package him with some other prospect(s) to get that much better a prospect(s) back. This trade will be under the microscope, so they will probably want somebody close to major league ready.
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Offline Brew4U Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#22

Posted: May 30, 2019, 9:50 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
The Giants missed their window to capitalize on moving MadBum. Now they will have to settle for what they get or double down on their mistakes and sign him. I hope it's the latter because that would be downright hilarious.
"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun
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Offline Joey Meyer Bombs Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#23

Posted: May 30, 2019, 9:56 AM Post
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Roderick said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Take a look at the hauls teams have typically gotten back for rentals the last few years. Other than the stupid deal the Cubs did for Chapman, the returns haven't been astronomical.


Usually, but I bet the Giants FO think they really have to show something for this trade to the "regular" fan. I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants pay most of the MadBum contract or package him with some other prospect(s) to get that much better a prospect(s) back. This trade will be under the microscope, so they will probably want somebody close to major league ready.


Perhaps. The Tigers traded Verlander to the Astros for three very young, far off prospects in 2017 . Granted all three were considered very good prospects, but they were very young. Franklin Perez was the crown jewel of that deal, and after scuffling pretty much all of last year, he is pitching well at the A+ level as a 21-year-old. Daz Cameron is off to a middling start in AAA this year as a 22 year old. Jake Rogers was the oldest of the three at 22 when dealt, and he started this season at AA as a 24 year old, and was moved up to AAA pretty quickly. He's playing well. But Verlander, who had just as much of a history as MadBum, and had 2 1/2 seasons of control to boot, was traded for three prospects who, while exciting, were so far away from being major leaguers that it is 1 1/2 seasons later and none have had any ML time yet.

Every team is going to want to trade their players for ML-ready studs, but those type of prospects are rarely dealt. Most of the time it is high upside these teams are getting back. The Brewers don't have a ton of prospects that are close to ML ready, but they do have a fair number of high upside guys that the lower levels that could theoretically be used as trade currency.


Last edited by Joey Meyer Bombs on May 30, 2019, 10:07 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline JosephC Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#24

Posted: May 30, 2019, 10:07 AM Post
Posts: 2173
Location: Madison, WI
Bumgarner has been such a big part of that franchise that I don't necessarily think it would be that bad of a deal for the Giants to re-sign him as long at the length of deal and money are reasonable. Oracle Park is a perfect fit for him, and it's not out of line to think that he could continue to be a 2.5 WAR pitcher in that environment. This season he's sitting at 9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9, so it's not like his skills have eroded to the point where he can't be a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher over the next 3-4 years. I don't think a 3 year, 62 million dollar deal with an option year tacked on (4 million buyout) would be unreasonable at all. One has to remember, this is a team that has comfortably operated at 180 million in payroll. He could get hurt and it could turn out to be a disaster but the same can be said about any pitcher. My guess is, if he'd disappoint, it would be at the level that Braun has disappointed over the length of his last extension. Maybe a disappointment, but there has been enough good mixed in there where it certainly does not rate as a disaster.

My biggest concerns with Bumgarner is what happens if he is no longer pitching 1/2 of his games at Oracle Park.
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Offline Jopal78! Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#25

Posted: May 30, 2019, 10:08 AM Post
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Posts: 609
Location: Chicago
Last year, the Cubs acquired Cole Hamels from Texas for Eddie Butler (since released), and two lower level minor league players. The return wasn't much for Texas however, the Cubs took on 14 million dollars in salary last year, plus another 20 million this year after picking up the club option.

In 2017, the Dodgers acquired rental starter Yu Darvish. The Dodgers sent Willie Calhoun (#60 prospect in MLB) plus two other minor league players.

Also in 2017, the Astros acquired Justin Verlander from Detroit for Franklin Perez (#41 prospect in MLB) and two other minor league players.

In 2015 when David Price was traded from Detroit to Toronto as a rental starter. Toronto sent their #1 prospect Daniel Norris, their #16 prospect Jairo Labourt and Matthew Boyd to Detroit.

Any sort of front line starter is going to cost either the Clubs top prospect or a legitimate top 100 prospect in MLB, plus other pieces.

No doubt, giving away Burnes would hurt, then again he is the most marketable asset after Keston Hiura. The rest of the Milwaukee prospects are either years away or have question marks due to injuries/inconsistent play and likely won't make up the best offer on the table for Bumgarner.

The reason I would do it is simple: winning in baseball is really hard. Who would have thought that the Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hart, Hardy era would yield just two playoff appearances and one playoff series win? In fact those clubs from 2007-2011 went 426-384 for a winning pct of .525.

At the break in 2014 the Brewers had 53 wins and a winning percentage of .552. With 66 games remaining following the break, had they played 3 games better than .500 baseball the rest of the way, they would have hosted the wild card game. Had they played four games better than .500 they would have tied for the division. Their reinforcements at the deadline that year for those who may not recall were Jonathon Broxton and Gerardo Parra. That team of course collapsed with the pitching staff allowing 5 or more runs in 18 of those 66 games after the break and the Brewers lost all 18 of those games. As everyone knows, the team assumed they were a contender in 2015, flopped badly with the manager and GM losing their jobs in the process.

Accordingly, in a division where there isn't a clear cut favorite, and in a league where a couple games will decide who is in the post season and who isn't you have to make hard decisions. The right decision in this case would be to gamble that Bumgarner makes the team's chances at the playoffs that much better, and live with the chance that Burnes will learn how to pitch effectively with his stuff.
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Offline Brew4U Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#26

Posted: May 30, 2019, 10:20 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Jopal78! said:
Last year, the Cubs acquired Cole Hamels from Texas for Eddie Butler (since released), and two lower level minor league players. The return wasn't much for Texas however, the Cubs took on 14 million dollars in salary last year, plus another 20 million this year after picking up the club option.

In 2017, the Dodgers acquired rental starter Yu Darvish. The Dodgers sent Willie Calhoun (#60 prospect in MLB) plus two other minor league players.

Also in 2017, the Astros acquired Justin Verlander from Detroit for Franklin Perez (#41 prospect in MLB) and two other minor league players.

In 2015 when David Price was traded from Detroit to Toronto as a rental starter. Toronto sent their #1 prospect Daniel Norris, their #16 prospect Jairo Labourt and Matthew Boyd to Detroit.

Any sort of front line starter is going to cost either the Clubs top prospect or a legitimate top 100 prospect in MLB, plus other pieces.


#88-Corey Ray would be your man then. Not Burnes. If your post was about giving up Ray for MadBum, you might've had some better responses.
"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun
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Offline MadThinker88 Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#27

Posted: May 30, 2019, 11:32 AM Post
Posts: 1300
Location: Ohio
But an injured Corey Ray (as he is now) is not worth much at all.
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Offline Jopal78! Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#28

Posted: May 30, 2019, 1:03 PM Post
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#88-Corey Ray would be your man then. Not Burnes. If your post was about giving up Ray for MadBum, you might've had some better responses.


That's kind of the point though. Nobody is going to trade for Corey Ray, he's hurt all the time, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his play when he is healthy. With respect to Burnes, what other chips do they have that another team would actually covet?
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Offline endaround Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#29

Posted: May 30, 2019, 1:18 PM Post
Posts: 10289
Jopal78! said:
#88-Corey Ray would be your man then. Not Burnes. If your post was about giving up Ray for MadBum, you might've had some better responses.


That's kind of the point though. Nobody is going to trade for Corey Ray, he's hurt all the time, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his play when he is healthy. With respect to Burnes, what other chips do they have that another team would actually covet?


With Ray not hitting and injured, Dubon not hitting, and Brown pitching poorly the Brewers have Turang and Lutz as guys teams could build a deal around for top talent assuming Burnes and Hiura aren't being moved.
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Offline OldHeidelberg Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#30

Posted: May 30, 2019, 1:50 PM Post
Posts: 735
I am sure Ray still has pretty good value. We have a small sample size bad start and a jammed finger that may have contributed, for a rental a lot of rebuilding teams would love to take a shot with his ceiling. Whether he fits for a trade with SF I don't know but like a lot of top Brewer prospects I would prefer they use him as part of a bigger trade with longer term value then flipping him for a couple of months of someone like MadBum. I just don't think he is as good anymore as some of the deadline rentals mentioned above, I guess it depends on needs and how close the team thinks they are for deals like this, as of today starting pitching doesn't seem like a critical need.
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Offline wntrtxn21 Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#31

Posted: May 30, 2019, 8:23 PM Post
Posts: 752
OldHeidelberg said:
I am sure Ray still has pretty good value. We have a small sample size bad start and a jammed finger that may have contributed, for a rental a lot of rebuilding teams would love to take a shot with his ceiling. Whether he fits for a trade with SF I don't know but like a lot of top Brewer prospects I would prefer they use him as part of a bigger trade with longer term value then flipping him for a couple of months of someone like MadBum. I just don't think he is as good anymore as some of the deadline rentals mentioned above, I guess it depends on needs and how close the team thinks they are for deals like this, as of today starting pitching doesn't seem like a critical need.


Ray has little value as a prospect now. He has been terrible at all three of the high minor lgs.. A+ .238/.307/156 Ks -- AA .239/.323/176 Ks -- AAA .178/.259/49 Ks in only 101 ABs. He maybe a throw-in with other prospects, but certainly not the major part of the trade.
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Offline wntrtxn21 Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#32

Posted: May 30, 2019, 8:35 PM Post
Posts: 752
endaround said:
Jopal78! said:
#88-Corey Ray would be your man then. Not Burnes. If your post was about giving up Ray for MadBum, you might've had some better responses.


That's kind of the point though. Nobody is going to trade for Corey Ray, he's hurt all the time, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his play when he is healthy. With respect to Burnes, what other chips do they have that another team would actually covet?


With Ray not hitting and injured, Dubon not hitting, and Brown pitching poorly the Brewers have Turang and Lutz as guys teams could build a deal around for top talent assuming Burnes and Hiura aren't being moved.


I agree about Turang. I saw him play on the 28th. He looks pretty darn good. He went 2 for 4 with a 3B and a RBI. Smooth fielder. He has a high ceiling. You're right about Ray. He has been awful, but Dubon hasn't been doing badly. .285/.327.. He doesn't K very much and plays good defense. Lutz is struggling at Carolina right now. .228/.307. Not sure how he is viewed by other teams.
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Offline OldHeidelberg Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#33

Posted: May 31, 2019, 7:36 AM Post
Posts: 735
wntrtxn21 said:
OldHeidelberg said:
I am sure Ray still has pretty good value. We have a small sample size bad start and a jammed finger that may have contributed, for a rental a lot of rebuilding teams would love to take a shot with his ceiling. Whether he fits for a trade with SF I don't know but like a lot of top Brewer prospects I would prefer they use him as part of a bigger trade with longer term value then flipping him for a couple of months of someone like MadBum. I just don't think he is as good anymore as some of the deadline rentals mentioned above, I guess it depends on needs and how close the team thinks they are for deals like this, as of today starting pitching doesn't seem like a critical need.


Ray has little value as a prospect now. He has been terrible at all three of the high minor lgs.. A+ .238/.307/156 Ks -- AA .239/.323/176 Ks -- AAA .178/.259/49 Ks in only 101 ABs. He maybe a throw-in with other prospects, but certainly not the major part of the trade.


As noted above Ray is ranked #88 overall at pipeline and that terrible year at AA last year somehow got him Southern League most outstanding player honors. It's been talked about here plenty that the hit tool is a concern but with his power and speed he only needs to be a .250 hitter to be a quality ML CF. I have no idea what MLB teams really think of his value but I doubt it is anywhere near as bleak as you make it sound.
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Offline JosephC Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#34

Posted: May 31, 2019, 8:18 AM Post
Posts: 2173
Location: Madison, WI
Ray definitely has value right now, but it's currently dipped because of the poor start and injury. I think if he was healthy and performing at an "average" level in AAA (say something like .235/.320/.460/.780), then the majority of MLB teams probably would view him as a #90 type player (surplus value = 22.5 million). But in the current situation, I'd guess that his average ranking if polling MLB teams would put him in the #150 range (surplus value = 17.1 million). So if you are Stearns, do you want to sell low on him now, and hold him and wait for him to get healthy and see if he can build on the 27 HR/37 SB season he had last year? If I'm Stearns, Ray is basically off the board for this reason. If some other team was willing to give back 22.5 million in surplus value, I'd be willing to trade Ray. But I don't think those offers would be forthcoming with the current situation.

Also worth noting:
Madison Bumgarner-
bWAR = 2016 = 4.8, 2017 = 3.1, 2018 = 2.4, 2019 = 0.2 (projects to 0.6 over full season)
fWAR = 2016 = 4.3, 2017 = 1.6, 2018 = 1.2, 2019 = 1.2 (projects to 3.6 over full season)

Biggest WAR number one can get is taking Fangraphs current 1.2 WAR and pro-rating that over a full season. That would put him as being worth 2.4 WAR for the rest of this season. However, run prevention would definintely not support that high of a number (ERA currently 4.01), and there is not one other single number from 2017 forward that would support 2.4 WAR in value (for 2/3s of a season). Taking full season projections for 2019 and then adding in 2017 and 2018 numbers, Bumgarner is a 2.1 bWAR/fWAR pitcher. Since 2/3rds of the season is left, IMO a solid estimate for Bumgarner for the rest of 2019 would be 1.4 WAR. At 9 million per WAR that would be 12.6 million in value - 8 million salary for remainder of season = 4.6 million in surplus value. Even if one takes the most optimistic number, the 2.4 WAR I noted above, that would put his surplus value at 13.6 million. IMO, even the most optimistic number for Bumgarner does not put his value at a depressed surplus value for Ray, although it is in the ballpark and would be reasonable (Ray = 17.1 million, Bumgarner = 13.6 million).
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Offline Brew4U Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#35

Posted: May 31, 2019, 8:25 AM Post
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Posts: 14152
Location: Milwaukee, WI
I've never really wanted us to target MadBum because I think he's spent. So many long seasons due to his incredible postseasons have me very wary of having him. Take away his massive ballpark and the numbers might be pretty scary too.
"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun
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Offline wntrtxn21 Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#36

Posted: May 31, 2019, 3:27 PM Post
Posts: 752
JosephC said:
Ray definitely has value right now, but it's currently dipped because of the poor start and injury. I think if he was healthy and performing at an "average" level in AAA (say something like .235/.320/.460/.780), then the majority of MLB teams probably would view him as a #90 type player (surplus value = 22.5 million). But in the current situation, I'd guess that his average ranking if polling MLB teams would put him in the #150 range (surplus value = 17.1 million). So if you are Stearns, do you want to sell low on him now, and hold him and wait for him to get healthy and see if he can build on the 27 HR/37 SB season he had last year? If I'm Stearns, Ray is basically off the board for this reason. If some other team was willing to give back 22.5 million in surplus value, I'd be willing to trade Ray. But I don't think those offers would be forthcoming with the current situation.

Also worth noting:
Madison Bumgarner-
bWAR = 2016 = 4.8, 2017 = 3.1, 2018 = 2.4, 2019 = 0.2 (projects to 0.6 over full season)
fWAR = 2016 = 4.3, 2017 = 1.6, 2018 = 1.2, 2019 = 1.2 (projects to 3.6 over full season)

Biggest WAR number one can get is taking Fangraphs current 1.2 WAR and pro-rating that over a full season. That would put him as being worth 2.4 WAR for the rest of this season. However, run prevention would definintely not support that high of a number (ERA currently 4.01), and there is not one other single number from 2017 forward that would support 2.4 WAR in value (for 2/3s of a season). Taking full season projections for 2019 and then adding in 2017 and 2018 numbers, Bumgarner is a 2.1 bWAR/fWAR pitcher. Since 2/3rds of the season is left, IMO a solid estimate for Bumgarner for the rest of 2019 would be 1.4 WAR. At 9 million per WAR that would be 12.6 million in value - 8 million salary for remainder of season = 4.6 million in surplus value. Even if one takes the most optimistic number, the 2.4 WAR I noted above, that would put his surplus value at 13.6 million. IMO, even the most optimistic number for Bumgarner does not put his value at a depressed surplus value for Ray, although it is in the ballpark and would be reasonable (Ray = 17.1 million, Bumgarner = 13.6 million).


Are you saying an average AAA player is a #90 type player? Ray hit some HRs, but his BA/OBP and 179 whiffs say he's not close to a top 100 type player. Look at his A+ numbers. Again very low BA/OBP and extremely high whiff rate. Before he got hurt his AAA numbers were horrible. The Giants would take about a 1/2 second to turn down a Ray for Madbum deal.
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Offline HiAndTight Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#37

Posted: May 31, 2019, 6:28 PM Post
Posts: 4266
wntrtxn21 said:

I agree about Turang. I saw him play on the 28th. He looks pretty darn good. He went 2 for 4 with a 3B and a RBI. Smooth fielder. He has a high ceiling. You're right about Ray. He has been awful, but Dubon hasn't been doing badly. .285/.327.. He doesn't K very much and plays good defense. Lutz is struggling at Carolina right now. .228/.307. Not sure how he is viewed by other teams.


Turang looks amazing and it's just so hard for me to fathom that he was in High School last year if you get a chance to watch him. I've seen him a couple times when I've been in Appleton. It'd be shocked if he didn't turn into at least a Brandon Crawford level player and I think he's got a real chance to be a Trea Turner type talent. I'd definitely be targeting him if I was another team and I would have him right up there with Hiura and Burnes as the guys I have as untouchable. Not sure if there would be a 4th player on list of young guys.
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Offline Brew crew 92 Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#38

Posted: May 31, 2019, 6:57 PM Post
Posts: 3060
HiAndTight said:
wntrtxn21 said:

I agree about Turang. I saw him play on the 28th. He looks pretty darn good. He went 2 for 4 with a 3B and a RBI. Smooth fielder. He has a high ceiling. You're right about Ray. He has been awful, but Dubon hasn't been doing badly. .285/.327.. He doesn't K very much and plays good defense. Lutz is struggling at Carolina right now. .228/.307. Not sure how he is viewed by other teams.


Turang looks amazing and it's just so hard for me to fathom that he was in High School last year if you get a chance to watch him. I've seen him a couple times when I've been in Appleton. It'd be shocked if he didn't turn into at least a Brandon Crawford level player and I think he's got a real chance to be a Trea Turner type talent. I'd definitely be targeting him if I was another team and I would have him right up there with Hiura and Burnes as the guys I have as untouchable. Not sure if there would be a 4th player on list of young guys.


Rasmussen would be that 4th.
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Offline jerichoholicninja Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#39

Posted: May 31, 2019, 7:31 PM Post
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Posts: 8673
Brew4U said:
I've never really wanted us to target MadBum because I think he's spent. So many long seasons due to his incredible postseasons have me very wary of having him. Take away his massive ballpark and the numbers might be pretty scary too.


I feel the same about him. He's been ridden hard every year and for a few deep postseason runs. Maybe's he's one of the exceptions but he's bound to crash at some point after so much mileage. Plus he's a turd who blows a gasket if a batter cracks the tiniest of a smile after homering off of him.
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Offline dlk9s Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#40

Posted: June 11, 2019, 1:44 PM Post
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In a good trade, both teams get value. Thus, I'd give the Giants a three-day-old paper bag of dog crap for Bumgarner.
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