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The Madison Bumgarner Thread: Burnes for Bumgarner [and other trade ideas]: would you do it?

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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#41

Posted: June 11, 2019, 2:50 PM Post
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dlk9s said:
In a good trade, both teams get value. Thus, I'd give the Giants a three-day-old paper bag of dog crap for Bumgarner.


Well Burnes has been pitching like fresh poo.

I’d rather give that up than the 3 day old stuff.

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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#42

Posted: June 11, 2019, 2:57 PM Post
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Why would I want to trade for a player who gets ******** if someone gets a base hit off of him or takes it as a personal insult if an opponent (or teammate, probably) has the gall to enjoy playing baseball? Screw that guy. He's not Cy Young.


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#43

Posted: June 11, 2019, 3:04 PM Post
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JosephC said:
Also worth noting:
Madison Bumgarner-
bWAR = 2016 = 4.8, 2017 = 3.1, 2018 = 2.4, 2019 = 0.2 (projects to 0.6 over full season)
fWAR = 2016 = 4.3, 2017 = 1.6, 2018 = 1.2, 2019 = 1.2 (projects to 3.6 over full season)

Biggest WAR number one can get is taking Fangraphs current 1.2 WAR and pro-rating that over a full season. That would put him as being worth 2.4 WAR for the rest of this season. However, run prevention would definintely not support that high of a number (ERA currently 4.01), and there is not one other single number from 2017 forward that would support 2.4 WAR in value (for 2/3s of a season). Taking full season projections for 2019 and then adding in 2017 and 2018 numbers, Bumgarner is a 2.1 bWAR/fWAR pitcher. Since 2/3rds of the season is left, IMO a solid estimate for Bumgarner for the rest of 2019 would be 1.4 WAR. At 9 million per WAR that would be 12.6 million in value - 8 million salary for remainder of season = 4.6 million in surplus value. Even if one takes the most optimistic number, the 2.4 WAR I noted above, that would put his surplus value at 13.6 million. IMO, even the most optimistic number for Bumgarner does not put his value at a depressed surplus value for Ray, although it is in the ballpark and would be reasonable (Ray = 17.1 million, Bumgarner = 13.6 million).

I'm not sure you can even go with most optimistic number as his consistency the last 3 years and over 300IP is a 1.4 fWAR/100IP player. That's not horrible, but as your number crunching indicates, given contract status, he's really not worth much of anything. How about the rights to Victor Roache... Is he even still playing? What happened to Dykstra? Rights to Dave Krynzel? A pair of season tickets to the Brewers? I can't think of something tangible that would not be an overpay...

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#44

Posted: June 11, 2019, 3:04 PM Post
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I don't think Bumgarner is good enough to warrant having him on a team with his douche bag self. He has always been a big douche bag, I don't need one that isn't elite.


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#45

Posted: June 11, 2019, 4:02 PM Post
Posts: 510
I'd trade Burnes+ for Trevor Bauer if the Indians shop him.

I wouldn't trade him for a half season of Bumgarner though.


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Online  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#46

Posted: June 11, 2019, 4:26 PM Post
Posts: 17380
There are so many reasons to say no to Bumgarner. He's been trending toward good-- not great the last few seasons. Despite that, the Giants are going to ask for the moon based on his name. They want four solid prospects for him. For a rental. Doesn't mean they'll get that, but it would cost much more than he's worth. He comes from a very pitcher friendly park and would be heading to a very hitter friendly park. Also, he's an extremely unlikeable dude. Normally I can look past that, but in his case it'd be tough.

I think CC Sabathia has really thrown expectations out of whack for a midseason rented big name.


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#47

Posted: June 11, 2019, 11:00 PM Post
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Bumgarner's "play the right way" act is old and tired, and he's just not good enough to warrant putting up with his ego and tantrums, let alone giving up anything of value to get him.


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Online  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#48

Posted: June 12, 2019, 5:15 AM Post
Posts: 17380
RoCoBrewfan said:
Bumgarner's "play the right way" act is old and tired, and he's just not good enough to warrant putting up with his ego and tantrums, let alone giving up anything of value to get him.



Exactly. The guy is averaging about a 4.00 FIP since the beginning of the 2017 season. He's not aging like Scherzer. He'll be expensive anyway. And as mentioned a million times, his personality sucks. Let the Yankees waste their prospect capital on him.


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#49

Posted: June 12, 2019, 8:18 AM Post
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I don't think he even wants to come here.


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Online  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#50

Posted: June 12, 2019, 8:33 AM Post
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brewmann04 said:
I don't think he even wants to come here.


His "no trade" list is not representative of where he wants to or doesn't want to go. He included pretty much every playoff contender on it. It's a ploy that gives him a little power over his next destination. He included probable playoff teams become those are the only ones who would theoretically be interested.


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#51

Posted: June 12, 2019, 11:41 AM Post
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I'm not sure he and Braun could co-exist after the incident last year which was completely brought on by Bumgarner.


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Online  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#52

Posted: June 12, 2019, 11:45 AM Post
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Point Beer Is Best said:
I'm not sure he and Braun could co-exist after the incident last year which was completely brought on by Bumgarner.


I don't really want him, but I wouldn't be too concerned about that. Bumgarner probably has a similar incident with half the teams in baseball. These guys are professionals and understand the expectation as teammates to move on from things like that.


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#53

Posted: June 12, 2019, 12:01 PM Post
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I came into this year hoping that Mad Bum would put up good numbers and that we'd make a run at trading for him at the deadline, but I just don't know now if I could get on board with this guy being a Brewer? He's got to be one of the biggest d-bags in the game today, and I just would really worry that he'd be the type of guy that would kill the great chemistry that this group seems to have again this year. There has to be better options out there, for guys that can help us - both on the field and in the clubhouse. Not sure if Mad Bum is that guy anymore?


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#54

Posted: June 12, 2019, 3:45 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
Don't want to start a new thread but what would it take to get Strasberg? Strasberg could potentially be a rental as he has an opt out after this season.


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#55

Posted: June 12, 2019, 7:00 PM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
xisxisxis said:
JosephC said:
Also worth noting:
Madison Bumgarner-
bWAR = 2016 = 4.8, 2017 = 3.1, 2018 = 2.4, 2019 = 0.2 (projects to 0.6 over full season)
fWAR = 2016 = 4.3, 2017 = 1.6, 2018 = 1.2, 2019 = 1.2 (projects to 3.6 over full season)

Biggest WAR number one can get is taking Fangraphs current 1.2 WAR and pro-rating that over a full season. That would put him as being worth 2.4 WAR for the rest of this season. However, run prevention would definintely not support that high of a number (ERA currently 4.01), and there is not one other single number from 2017 forward that would support 2.4 WAR in value (for 2/3s of a season). Taking full season projections for 2019 and then adding in 2017 and 2018 numbers, Bumgarner is a 2.1 bWAR/fWAR pitcher. Since 2/3rds of the season is left, IMO a solid estimate for Bumgarner for the rest of 2019 would be 1.4 WAR. At 9 million per WAR that would be 12.6 million in value - 8 million salary for remainder of season = 4.6 million in surplus value. Even if one takes the most optimistic number, the 2.4 WAR I noted above, that would put his surplus value at 13.6 million. IMO, even the most optimistic number for Bumgarner does not put his value at a depressed surplus value for Ray, although it is in the ballpark and would be reasonable (Ray = 17.1 million, Bumgarner = 13.6 million).

I'm not sure you can even go with most optimistic number as his consistency the last 3 years and over 300IP is a 1.4 fWAR/100IP player. That's not horrible, but as your number crunching indicates, given contract status, he's really not worth much of anything. How about the rights to Victor Roache... Is he even still playing? What happened to Dykstra? Rights to Dave Krynzel? A pair of season tickets to the Brewers? I can't think of something tangible that would not be an overpay...


I calculated the numbers again yesterday and the most optimistic number had been the 2019 fWAR projected over a full season. He had a 1.2 fWAR on May 31, but now we are nearly two weeks down the road and he still has the same 1.2 fWAR. So now instead of pro-rating to a 3.6 fWAR over a full season, and then being worth 2.4 WAR from May 31 to the end of the season, now his season fWAR pro-rates to 3.0 and with 97 games remaining (for San Francisco), now he is only worth 1.8 fWAR from June 12 to the end of the season. Most optimistic number = 1.8 fWAR * 9 million = 16.2 million - 7.19 million in remaining salary = surplus value of 9 million (down 4.6 million just over the last two weeks).

I have a feeling that most offers will top out in the 8-12 million in surplus value range and the Giants will decide they don't even want to move him for that. A comp A pick is not worth 8-12 million but the Giants might be just as content to take a draft pick instead and be happy they don't have to face any fan backlash from trading him. Then Bumgarner gets the QO and ends up just re-signing with the Giants for the simple reason that they will value him more than any other team and will give him the best offer. We'll see what happens but that would be my best guess. If they put a price on him like a back end top 100 player plus another "role-player prospect," I'd be pretty stunned if a team would step up and meet that price. But we'll see. Most of the time this math comes close to matching what actually happens, but there is always one or two trades every year that seems pretty lopsided.


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#56

Posted: June 12, 2019, 7:23 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
I've never really wanted us to target MadBum because I think he's spent. So many long seasons due to his incredible postseasons have me very wary of having him. Take away his massive ballpark and the numbers might be pretty scary too.


Seems like Brewers fans feel this way every time a veteran comes around. The vast majority declared Hamels and Verlander done and washed up. Often times these veterans get re-invigorated with being on a good team.


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Online  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#57

Posted: June 12, 2019, 7:53 PM Post
Posts: 17380
DHonks said:
Brew4U said:
I've never really wanted us to target MadBum because I think he's spent. So many long seasons due to his incredible postseasons have me very wary of having him. Take away his massive ballpark and the numbers might be pretty scary too.


Seems like Brewers fans feel this way every time a veteran comes around. The vast majority declared Hamels and Verlander done and washed up. Often times these veterans get re-invigorated with being on a good team.


Kind of amazes me that it takes playing on a contender to motivate some of these guys. (I don't put Verlander in this category, but Hamels I definitely do). Anyone can be invigorated playing on a contender. If you still had that ace ability and you're sitting there going through the motions on a losing team and performing poorly, what does that tell me about how you're going to handle adversity?


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#58

Posted: June 12, 2019, 9:57 PM Post
Posts: 1232
DHonks said:
Brew4U said:
I've never really wanted us to target MadBum because I think he's spent. So many long seasons due to his incredible postseasons have me very wary of having him. Take away his massive ballpark and the numbers might be pretty scary too.


Seems like Brewers fans feel this way every time a veteran comes around. The vast majority declared Hamels and Verlander done and washed up. Often times these veterans get re-invigorated with being on a good team.



I was a fan of Hamels. There were peripherals that suggested he was better than some thought. I liked Verlander, but I definitely thought he was on the downside of his career.


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#59

Posted: June 12, 2019, 10:14 PM Post
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adambr2 said:

Kind of amazes me that it takes playing on a contender to motivate some of these guys. (I don't put Verlander in this category, but Hamels I definitely do). Anyone can be invigorated playing on a contender. If you still had that ace ability and you're sitting there going through the motions on a losing team and performing poorly, what does that tell me about how you're going to handle adversity?



It doesn't amaze me. The adrenaline that comes with pitching when it actually matters can make a huge difference. It's actually pretty easy for me to see how hard it would be to "get up" to pitch every 5 days and be at your best when your team isn't trying to win, ie, in a rebuild like the two mentioned above.

I think Bumgarner would be a great addition. I don't think pitchers with his type of pedigree can just be plugged into a formula and place his "surplus" or negative value into dollar amounts.

I'm not giving up Burnes for him, but I'd definitely like to see him. And if we're advocating for Bauer, can we really complain about Burmgarner? Is there something that makes him unlikable that I don't know about? Or are we just talking about him yelling a guys who watch their HR's? Because if it's the later, I actually gained more respect for him by saying basically, "well, he can do that, that's fine, but then let me be me and not like that he's doing that."

A helluva lot better than Mr. "what do I tell my kids," and then watch him scream and cuss out players on Baseball's biggest stage.


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Offline  Re: Burnes for Bumgarner: would you do it?
#60

Posted: June 12, 2019, 11:01 PM Post
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OnTheBlack said:
And if we're advocating for Bauer, can we really complain about Burmgarner? Is there something that makes him unlikable that I don't know about? Or are we just talking about him yelling a guys who watch their HR's? Because if it's the later, I actually gained more respect for him by saying basically, "well, he can do that, that's fine, but then let me be me and not like that he's doing that."
.


I won't advocate for Bauer because he literally stalked a girl on Twitter for 72 hours because she said something mildly mean about him in one Tweet.

Bumgarner, I would understand if the dude was just a "fiery competitor", but it's not about "letting kids be kids" and letting "madbum be himself", he is literally pitching a fit because people on the diamond won't conform to imaginary rules that he has created in his own head. It's stupid, silly, and absolutely unnecessary. That doesn't make him a fiery competitor, it just makes him a super intolerable jerk who behaves like a red-assed immature baby.

The other day Max Muncy hit a massive drive, LAID his bat down, took two walking steps, and Bumgarner was screaming at him to RUN, DONT WALK, until the cords on his neck were standing out, and the umpire had to get between him and Muncy. I mean......why?? Just to show everyone how fiery and awesome and what a protector of the game he is? What even is the point of that? If his feelings are that hurt by bat flips and guys watching homeruns, maybe he just needs some frickin anger management....


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