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This year's deadline

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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#21

Posted: May 31, 2019, 7:07 AM Post
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Maybe Aguilar can wear a hazmat suit so the others are more at ease being around him?


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#22

Posted: May 31, 2019, 3:05 PM Post
Posts: 270
Brew crew 92 said:
wntrtxn21 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Here’s what I’d do ASAP:

1.) trade for Justin Smoak now > Cost 5 mil. & a couple middling prospects.

2.) Trade Aguilar asap for whatever I could get. Every game he’s in the dugout is a negative influence thru no fault of his own, just is.

3.) Sign Kimbrel next week for 3 yrs at 42 mil. 10 mil this yr and 16 the next 2.

4.) Trade Thames for whatever I could get/salary relief.

Then i re-evaluate as we get closer to the deadline.

Add 15 mil to this year’s payroll with Smoak and Kimbrel and subtract a few mil trading Thames. Smoak will help our offense with power Walks and no Ks, and Kimbrel can dominate the 9th from July thru oct.2021.


The problem with your scenario is that next year they would add $16M, plus they need to pick up the $11M for Moustakas, and if the re-sign Smoak that's another $9-11M added on. They also have Knebel, Shaw, Davies, Perez, Guerra, Gamel, Arcia, and Suter arby eligible. With the payroll already at a Brewer record, money becomes a major factor.


No Grandal > 18 mil
No moose > 9 mil
That’s = 27 mil

New Fox deal > 9 mil
That’s = 36 mil - 16 mil = +20 mil to keep payroll where it’s at now.

Then in the last year of Kimbrel’s contract:

New turner & Espn deal > 10 mil(EST.)
New local tv deal > 8 mil(EST.)
No Braun contract > 14 mil( less 2 mil buyout)
That’s 32 mil. - 16 mil. kimbrel = +16 mil. To keep payroll the same.

That doesn’t include extra revenue from attendance, corporate sponsors, licensing, playoff revenue.[/quote

You're assuming they aren't going to keep their #4 hitter (Moose) who is doing very well. I think Stearns jumps to keep him at the chance and look to trade Shaw or put him at 1B. They also will need a replacement for Grandal. They didn't like Pena as a starter this year so nothing will change and Nottingham isn't the answer. Plus you forget the 9 arby eligible guys.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#23

Posted: June 10, 2019, 1:59 PM Post
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I agree that we aren't going to make any big moves at the deadline. We have no obvious holes anywhere on the roster, lots of decent depth and a middling farm system that will likely need to be tapped into next year when Chacin, Anderson, Thames, Moose and Grandal are all likely gone.

I'd say we need an Ace, but our depth might make up for us not having a TOR type guy (although Woodruff might get there), and nobody is going to trade us an ace for a whole bunch of middling pieces.

Getting another relief arm seems likely, but I'm not sure that any guy we could get would actually be more talented than the guys we have...same with the SP situation.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#24

Posted: June 10, 2019, 2:25 PM Post
Posts: 510
I think the Brewers need a reliever. Similar to the Soria deal from last season.

They might need a right handed bat who can play first if Aguilar doesn't get it going. Realistically a lot of the offensive concerns would be alleviated if Shaw and Aguilar get going.

Here are some thoughts on some right handed/switch hitter targets:
Neil Walker- having a nice season. Currently on the IL, but can't really hit as a righty anymore
Smoak- having a nice season, but is way better as a lefty than righty
Abreu- mediocre season, but hits lefties pretty well. White Sox may not want to move him
Howie Kendrick- Probably my #1 target if they can't get Aguilar going. Obviously some injury concern, but the way Thames is hitting the Brewers wouldn't need him to play everyday. Biggest obstacle might be Washington's unwillingness to sell.
Logan Forsythe- would be a good move as well if the Rangers decide to sell. Having a really nice season and is playing a lot of first base for them.
Todd Frazier- if the Mets sell he could be a good pick up. Offers third and first base coverage and a nice righty bat.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#25

Posted: June 10, 2019, 2:33 PM Post
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Since April 29th, Aguilar is slashing .263/.376/.461. I highly doubt we will be able to significantly upgrade at 1B from a Thames/Aguilar platoon. Plus, once Hiura comes up we'll just have another roster spot to find.

We might be able to find a guy who is having a decent year and has outproduced the guys we have, but moving forward and trying to predict production from here on out is a totally different matter. None of those guys are actually an upgrade.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#26

Posted: June 10, 2019, 2:49 PM Post
Posts: 510
Oxy said:
Since April 29th, Aguilar is slashing .263/.376/.461. I highly doubt we will be able to significantly upgrade at 1B from a Thames/Aguilar platoon. Plus, once Hiura comes up we'll just have another roster spot to find.

We might be able to find a guy who is having a decent year and has outproduced the guys we have, but moving forward and trying to predict production from here on out is a totally different matter. None of those guys are actually an upgrade.


Ya that's fair, if Aguilar hits well that really clears things up and is best case scenario for the team.

The arbitrary end points you posted are sorta misleading though. You start it with a hot two game stretch where he hit 3 homers and it inflates the other 90ish PAs he's had since that time (232/360/319).


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
#27

Posted: June 10, 2019, 3:05 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Eyeball test is still very bad on Aguilar. I'm always on the patient side but it's starting to be concerning where you just might have cut bait not far down the line. That said, I don't think they need a panic move there since Thames is doing well for now and covers the big end of the platoon. Once Hiura is back up you have another RH bat so Perez can play 1B. So come September/Oct you're kind of ok there assuming folks stay healthy. Still, I'd have my eyes on that market if I was them and see what shows up. There's probably a decent Granderson style pick up you can get right before the deadline (Frazier type person) to grab if needed for next to no cost if needed.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#28

Posted: June 10, 2019, 3:40 PM Post
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long ball said:
Oxy said:
Since April 29th, Aguilar is slashing .263/.376/.461. I highly doubt we will be able to significantly upgrade at 1B from a Thames/Aguilar platoon. Plus, once Hiura comes up we'll just have another roster spot to find.

We might be able to find a guy who is having a decent year and has outproduced the guys we have, but moving forward and trying to predict production from here on out is a totally different matter. None of those guys are actually an upgrade.


Ya that's fair, if Aguilar hits well that really clears things up and is best case scenario for the team.

The arbitrary end points you posted are sorta misleading though. You start it with a hot two game stretch where he hit 3 homers and it inflates the other 90ish PAs he's had since that time (232/360/319).


Sure. From May 16th til now he's slashing .147/.231/.265 in 40 PAs. From March 28th to April 28th he hit .129/.225/.127 in 82 PAs

Which means that from April 29th to May 15th he hit .357/.481/.619 in 55 PAs.


On the whole, I don't think Thames or Aguilar are good full-time options, but I think a pretty strict R/L platoon will give us above average production from here on out with a possibility for MVP level production at times for either of them. We aren't relying on them to be a linchpin in our lineup. Yelich, Moose and Grandal have been very consistently excellent. We're not going to find better options elsewhere.


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
#29

Posted: July 01, 2019, 9:46 AM Post
Posts: 1980
Here’s my way too early deadline moves:

1.) Trade Josh Hader to the Twins.

Hader > Trevor Larnach of, Jordan Balazovic RHP, Jhoan Duran RHP

2.) Trade for Trevor Bauer from the Tribe.

Bauer > Corbin Burnes, Corey Ray, Trey Supek

3.) Trade for Will Smith.

Smith > Tristan Lutz, Caden Lemons

4.) Trade for Ian Kennedy.

Kennedy & 10 mil. > Z. Brown, B. Francis

5.) Trade for Neil Walker.

Walker > Aguilar

6.) Trade Z. Davies to whoever for prospects.

Rotation:

Bauer Woodruff Houser Anderson Gio/Chacin

Bullpen:

Chacín Peralta Perdomo Guerra Albers Kennedy Jeffress Smith

Lineup:

Cain Yelich Hiura Moose Grandal Thames Braun/Gamel Arcia/Dubon

Bench:

Freitas Walker

Give up 4 middling prospects. 3 good, a stud Burnes.

But I get back a top 100 for Davies, 2 top 100s & a top 150 for Hader. So It’s a net gain on prospects.

And my rotation has 2 aces, and pen that can still shut down the oppo., offense is better with Freitas Dubon and Walker.

And next year I convince my owner to raise the payroll for ONE year to 180 million and plug holes at 3rd and C, and with a second half Knebel And shut down pen, Bauer Woody Houser Peralta Balazovic as my ridiculous rotation, I go on another deep run.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#30

Posted: July 01, 2019, 9:58 AM Post
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You lost me at trade #1. You don't trade Hader and get better.


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
#31

Posted: July 01, 2019, 10:01 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Here’s my way too early deadline moves:

1.) Trade Josh Hader to the Twins.

Hader > Trevor Larnach of, Jordan Balazovic RHP, Jhoan Duran RHP

2.) Trade for Trevor Bauer from the Tribe.

Bauer > Corbin Burnes, Corey Ray, Trey Supek

3.) Trade for Will Smith.

Smith > Tristan Lutz, Caden Lemons

4.) Trade for Ian Kennedy.

Kennedy & 10 mil. > Z. Brown, B. Francis

5.) Trade for Neil Walker.

Walker > Aguilar

6.) Trade Z. Davies to whoever for prospects.

Rotation:

Bauer Woodruff Houser Anderson Gio/Chacin

Bullpen:

Chacín Peralta Perdomo Guerra Albers Kennedy Jeffress Smith

Lineup:

Cain Yelich Hiura Moose Grandal Thames Braun/Gamel Arcia/Dubon

Bench:

Freitas Walker

Give up 4 middling prospects. 3 good, a stud Burnes.

But I get back a top 100 for Davies, 2 top 100s & a top 150 for Hader. So It’s a net gain on prospects.

And my rotation has 2 aces, and pen that can still shut down the oppo., offense is better with Freitas Dubon and Walker.

And next year I convince my owner to raise the payroll for ONE year to 180 million and plug holes at 3rd and C, and with a second half Knebel And shut down pen, Bauer Woody Houser Peralta Balazovic as my ridiculous rotation, I go on another deep run.


Well ... this would be ... something.


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
#32

Posted: July 01, 2019, 10:09 AM Post
Posts: 1980
MillerParkSouth said:
You lost me at trade #1. You don't trade Hader and get better.


What’s better for this team, an Ace for 2 playoffs, and 2 stud pitchers plus a stud outfielder? or

Hader for 4 yrs and Burnes and Ray and Supek.

I want the guaranteed Ace for two years, with prospects that have more upside.


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
#33

Posted: July 01, 2019, 10:14 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
MillerParkSouth said:
You lost me at trade #1. You don't trade Hader and get better.


What’s better for this team, an Ace for 2 playoffs, and 2 stud pitchers plus a stud outfielder? or

Hader for 4 yrs and Burnes and Ray and Supek.

I want the guaranteed Ace for two years, with prospects that have more upside.


What does one deal have to do with the other? I don't think a team has ever made all-in moves and rebuild moves in the same season. A few of these moves make sense individually, but in combination it is kinda nuts. And not in a good way.


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
#34

Posted: July 01, 2019, 10:33 AM Post
Posts: 1980
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
MillerParkSouth said:
You lost me at trade #1. You don't trade Hader and get better.


What’s better for this team, an Ace for 2 playoffs, and 2 stud pitchers plus a stud outfielder? or

Hader for 4 yrs and Burnes and Ray and Supek.

I want the guaranteed Ace for two years, with prospects that have more upside.


What does one deal have to do with the other? I don't think a team has ever made all-in moves and rebuild moves in the same season. A few of these moves make sense individually, but in combination it is kinda nuts. And not in a good way.


I Trade high on Hader, but that weakens my pen, so get my pen maybe not as strong but strong enough with Smith and Kennedy. Then I get my Ace for the 2 playoffs.

Burnes is my biggest loss, but the 2 top pitching prospects cancel that out. I lose Ray and Lutz, but Larnach is a better prospect than either of them plus I still have Grisham.

If I can’t get a good enough prospect for Davies, then I don’t make that trade.

I lose 2 years of Hader for 2 playoffs with an Ace and Kennedy.

And I still have prospect depth to keep winning thru the Yelich window.


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
#35

Posted: July 01, 2019, 10:52 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:

I Trade high on Hader, but that weakens my pen, so get my pen maybe not as strong but strong enough with Smith and Kennedy. Then I get my Ace for the 2 playoffs.

Burnes is my biggest loss, but the 2 top pitching prospects cancel that out. I lose Ray and Lutz, but Larnach is a better prospect than either of them plus I still have Grisham.

If I can’t get a good enough prospect for Davies, then I don’t make that trade.

I lose 2 years of Hader for 2 playoffs with an Ace and Kennedy.

And I still have prospect depth to keep winning thru the Yelich window.


If this is the kind of player movement you are expecting/hoping for this season, there is no other way to say it. You're going to be disappointed. Because it just isn't going to happen.


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
#36

Posted: July 01, 2019, 10:58 AM Post
Posts: 1980
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:

I Trade high on Hader, but that weakens my pen, so get my pen maybe not as strong but strong enough with Smith and Kennedy. Then I get my Ace for the 2 playoffs.

Burnes is my biggest loss, but the 2 top pitching prospects cancel that out. I lose Ray and Lutz, but Larnach is a better prospect than either of them plus I still have Grisham.

If I can’t get a good enough prospect for Davies, then I don’t make that trade.

I lose 2 years of Hader for 2 playoffs with an Ace and Kennedy.

And I still have prospect depth to keep winning thru the Yelich window.


If this is the kind of player movement you are expecting/hoping for this season, there is no other way to say it. You're going to be disappointed. Because it just isn't going to happen.


It might with DiPoto at the helm. Ha


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#37

Posted: July 01, 2019, 11:14 AM Post
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Location: Baltimore, MD
Brew crew 92 said:
MillerParkSouth said:
You lost me at trade #1. You don't trade Hader and get better.


What’s better for this team, an Ace for 2 playoffs, and 2 stud pitchers plus a stud outfielder? or

Hader for 4 yrs and Burnes and Ray and Supek.

I want the guaranteed Ace for two years, with prospects that have more upside.

1.) I would rather have an ace for 2 playoffs + Hader for 5 playoffs, so I'd at least nix the Hader deal if I was going to do any of this at all
2.) With one "ace-like" year last year surrounded by meh-to-goodish years the rest of his career, what makes Bauer a "guaranteed ace"?
3.) If you want to replenish the farm system, why trade away significant roster pieces now when you could wait til after the season (or after next season, or after the season after next season, or...)


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
#38

Posted: July 01, 2019, 11:29 AM Post
Posts: 1980
MrAllen said:
Brew crew 92 said:
MillerParkSouth said:
You lost me at trade #1. You don't trade Hader and get better.


What’s better for this team, an Ace for 2 playoffs, and 2 stud pitchers plus a stud outfielder? or

Hader for 4 yrs and Burnes and Ray and Supek.

I want the guaranteed Ace for two years, with prospects that have more upside.

1.) I would rather have an ace for 2 playoffs + Hader for 5 playoffs, so I'd at least nix the Hader deal if I was going to do any of this at all
2.) With one "ace-like" year last year surrounded by meh-to-goodish years the rest of his career, what makes Bauer a "guaranteed ace"?
3.) If you want to replenish the farm system, why trade away significant roster pieces now when you could wait til after the season (or after next season, or after the season after next season, or...)


Bauer’s the ultimate Ace RIGHT NOW, he’s a horse, no one pitches deeper, right at the edge of his prime these next 2 playoffs, and with Woodruff, another horse, who’s improving more than any pitcher in baseball by the start, wow, what 1-2.

I’m selling as high as I possibly can with Hader is the Why. The prospects I get back are tremendous, 2 of which can plug holes NEXT YEAR and 2021. The back end of my pen I can still fill with dominant pitchers.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#39

Posted: July 01, 2019, 11:41 AM Post
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I’m selling as high as I possibly can with Hader is the Why. The prospects I get back are tremendous, 2 of which can plug holes NEXT YEAR and 2021. The back end of my pen I can still fill with dominant pitchers.



Hader is the most dominant left handed reliever in baseball. His ability to go multiple innings makes him one of the most (if not the most) dominant reliever in all baseball.

The bullpen on your proposed roster sucks, and all those moves have an overall feel of just churning the personnel in the organization without concretely improving the overall talent in the organization.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
#40

Posted: July 01, 2019, 11:49 AM Post
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Location: Baltimore, MD
I'm not totally opposed to your logic, however, I think you are overrating every player you've mentioned the Brewers receiving. Bauer has a very mediocre 4.32 xFIP "right now" and has had several non-ace quality starts scattered throughout the season where he's given up at least seven earned runs twice, at least five earned runs four times, and at least four earned runs seven times. I still like him and would love him on the staff, but I think he's far from the "ultimate ace" or a guaranteed thing. As for the prospects, I know MLB's prospect rankings aren't the end-all, be-all, but only two of them barely scrape the top 100 list and non of them are expected to reach the majors for at least two more years as they're all in A+ right now. Regardless, it's a nice package, but if I'm giving up 4.5 seasons of Hader, I want to be completely blown out of the water and that doesn't do it for me.


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