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This year's deadline

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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 30, 2019, 8:26 PM Post
Posts: 1173
Location: Ohio
No other hint.
Just that Bauer is now into the NL Central and Trammell is out of the division..


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 30, 2019, 8:28 PM Post
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I'm glad that Bauer went to the Reds and not an actual NL playoff contender. I don't think the Reds are close even with the rotation addition.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 30, 2019, 8:29 PM Post
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DS needs to do SOMETHING(s). Need another starter. Just crazy that two of the top available arms went to teams that aren't in contention. What a strange deadline year.


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 30, 2019, 8:31 PM Post
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Brewcrewin07 said:
DS needs to do SOMETHING(s). Need another starter. Just crazy that two of the top available arms went to teams that aren't in contention. What a strange deadline year.


I agree that another starter and at least one pen arm would be ideal. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Brewers grab a reliever like Kela or Colome, and perhaps a rental starter tomorrow.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:04 AM Post
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I am going to state the obvious here, but it is truly amazing to me that the only two teams to make moves for premium starters are two of the three teams in the National League that looked like certain “sellers” a few days ago. Following a mostly slow off-season you start to wonder if this is indeed the new normal? I am sure there will still be plenty of trades today, but I also feel like we might be on the precipice of what may become just how baseball front offices operate going forward. Many (most?) teams are run by front offices with a higher level of risk aversion than we’ve seen previously as well seemingly placing a higher valuation on prospects and young controllable talent.

We are now less than 8 hours from the 3:00pm CT deadline. In terms of the Brewers specifically, it feels like today carries a lot of significance for the future of the organization. I don’t necessarily mean that they need to make a move, or not make a move, rather that whatever decisions they make today are likely to have ramifications in both the short-term and long-term. I think we will at some point look back at today as one of the defining moments of this current window.

I don’t know what the right answer is at this point, but I am very curious to see how today plays out.


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Online  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:17 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
I am going to state the obvious here, but it is truly amazing to me that the only two teams to make moves for premium starters are two of the three teams in the National League that looked like certain “sellers” a few days ago. Following a mostly slow off-season you start to wonder if this is indeed the new normal? I am sure there will still be plenty of trades today, but I also feel like we might be on the precipice of what may become just how baseball front offices operate going forward. Many (most?) teams are run by front offices with a higher level of risk aversion than we’ve seen previously as well seemingly placing a higher valuation on prospects and young controllable talent.

We are now less than 8 hours from the 3:00pm CT deadline. In terms of the Brewers specifically, it feels like today carries a lot of significance for the future of the organization. I don’t necessarily mean that they need to make a move, or not make a move, rather that whatever decisions they make today are likely to have ramifications in both the short-term and long-term. I think we will at some point look back at today as one of the defining moments of this current window.

I don’t know what the right answer is at this point, but I am very curious to see how today plays out.


Me too! This is the first time in a long time that I have absolutely no idea where they are going to go. I could see anything from a major trade for an upper-end controllable starting pitcher, to several rental-type deals to go for it this year in a division that is imminently winnable, to even a small sell-off of rental types while looking toward next year.

What I do know that flipping back and forth between buyer and seller based on the outcome of every game, as several posters seem to be doing around here, is likely not the answer. Making a move simply to make a move (the grass is always greener philosophy) is also not the answer. I think the Brewers have a plan, and they will stick to it. And bravo to them for not letting that plan get leaked out. It kind of gives that kid on Christmas morning vibe. Are we getting a shiny, new expensive Tonka truck (controllable starter), a few frisbees and lawn darts that will be great fun, but will then break or we'll get bored with (rentals), or a bunch of toys that we aren't quite old enough for, but will be fun in a few years (prospects). Our only present so far is an open pack of tube socks that we actually opened last Christmas, and Dad forgetfully rewrapped (Lyles).


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:29 AM Post
Posts: 1844
Eye Black said:
I am going to state the obvious here, but it is truly amazing to me that the only two teams to make moves for premium starters are two of the three teams in the National League that looked like certain “sellers” a few days ago. Following a mostly slow off-season you start to wonder if this is indeed the new normal? I am sure there will still be plenty of trades today, but I also feel like we might be on the precipice of what may become just how baseball front offices operate going forward. Many (most?) teams are run by front offices with a higher level of risk aversion than we’ve seen previously as well seemingly placing a higher valuation on prospects and young controllable talent.

We are now less than 8 hours from the 3:00pm CT deadline. In terms of the Brewers specifically, it feels like today carries a lot of significance for the future of the organization. I don’t necessarily mean that they need to make a move, or not make a move, rather that whatever decisions they make today are likely to have ramifications in both the short-term and long-term. I think we will at some point look back at today as one of the defining moments of this current window.

I don’t know what the right answer is at this point, but I am very curious to see how today plays out.


I have a feeling, that if you are like me and want to see them make a big move(s), I'm going to be incredibly disappointed. To me, my gut tells me IF they were going to do anything big today, the framework would have been in place last night and Grisham/Dubon wouldn't have played or pulled early. It's sad because I really want a TOR starter and a bullpen piece or two, but I THINK all they are going to do today is a minor BP piece or two for middling prospects. I'm preparing myself for that, as hard as it may be. I hope DS surprises me greatly today.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:38 AM Post
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I’m hoping we trade Grandal, Moose, and try and find a taker for Braun. Trade for MLB ready pitching or at least high level minor league pitching. Insert Pina, Shaw, and Grisham into the starting lineup and see what happens. That is what I hope happens today.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:47 AM Post
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Kudos to the Reds GM for being able to identify quality talent that other teams are eager to get rid of. He takes on Gray’s contract and only gives up competitive balance pick (Brewers got Claudio for theirs haha). Gets Puig for nothing by merely swapping bad contracts with the Dodgers. Gets Tanner Roark for virtually nothing by taking on the contract.

Ships Puig and prospects to get Bauer. I anticipate they’ll unload Wood and Roark and their other rental players for minor leaguers. The end result being they’re farm system gets some new blood. And they trot out a dominant rotation in the NL Central for the rest of 2019 and 2020 with Castillo, Bauer, Gray, DeScladani and Mahle. Coupled with some very nice hitters: Suarez, Senzel, Winker and the Reds are now equipped to go toe to toe with anyone in the Central.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:52 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
Kudos to the Reds GM for overpaying.


Fixed it for you, IMO, of course. Your post severely devalues the prospects given.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 7:15 AM Post
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shanedog19 said:
I’m hoping we trade Grandal, Moose, and try and find a taker for Braun. Trade for MLB ready pitching or at least high level minor league pitching. Insert Pina, Shaw, and Grisham into the starting lineup and see what happens. That is what I hope happens today.


I think we all know Braun and his contract have almost zero appeal to anybody. To trade Grandal and Moose would mean Stearns has thrown in the towel, but if he doesn't do something today I guess it's time to look at next year. If Stearns does nothing today I'd like to see Dubon get his shot at SS and Grisham get his shot at the OF. Shaw continues to stink and could go back down. Grisham is a LH so Gamel or Aguilar would have to go. Maybe look at D. Williams and Perdomo for next year. Barnes, T. Williams, Taylor could be removed from the 40-man to make room for them. See if Peralta can continue to be a late inning performer.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 7:18 AM Post
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What “prospects” did they give up? Considering Nick Senzel was their top prospect at the beginning of the year; they gave up their 2nd best prospect and their 12th for a top of the rotation starter with another year of control.

If you were the GM of the Brewers and could get Bauer for two prospects without giving up Hiura; you’d make that deal. So don’t be ridiculous.

They gave the Yankees Shed Long for Sonny Gray in addition to the comp balance pick. You can’t seriously be calling him a prospect?

They got Puig, Wood and Kemp from LA by taking their contracts and even managed to unload Homer Bailey in the process. Where’s the over pay here?


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 7:33 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
What “prospects” did they give up? Considering Nick Senzel was their top prospect at the beginning of the year; they gave up their 2nd best prospect and their 12th for a top of the rotation starter with another year of control.

If you were the GM of the Brewers and could get Bauer for two prospects without giving up Hiura; you’d make that deal. So don’t be ridiculous.

They gave the Yankees Shed Long for Sonny Gray in addition to the comp balance pick. You can’t seriously be calling him a prospect?

They got Puig, Wood and Kemp from LA by taking their contracts and even managed to unload Homer Bailey in the process. Where’s the over pay here?


They gave 2 prospects that look to have some very nice potential to the Dodgers in that trade. Jeter Downs is hitting well in high A ball at age 20 and Josiah Gray is pitching well at the same level and just moved up to AA at age 21 (10+ K/9 in the minors).

Yes, they dumped Homer Bailey but they did pick up a lot of salary for equally useless players (Kemp and a later injured Wood).

Looks like Gray was a good trade (so far).

The excitement on Trammel has cooled a bit but he could be a star.

I actually am surprised the Reds' record is as bad as it is given their pitching and understand why owners do this...but what's the end-game here? To probably still miss the wild card next year and the recoup the comp pick on Trevor Bauer?


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 7:37 AM Post
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shanedog19 said:
I’m hoping we trade Grandal, Moose, and try and find a taker for Braun. Trade for MLB ready pitching or at least high level minor league pitching. Insert Pina, Shaw, and Grisham into the starting lineup and see what happens. That is what I hope happens today.

Braun isn't going anywhere. That ship sailed two years ago now I think. He has full no trade rights as a 10-and-5 player and he's on the record as saying he'll veto any trade that doesn't involve a very specific list of teams (California team, contender) which essentially means the Dodgers, and the Dodgers frankly don't need him.

Even if, against all odds, a deal was agreed to between the Brewers and Dodgers I still don't think it's a slam dunk Braun accepts it. He's comfortable in Milwaukee, he's friendly with Yelich, Moose and others including Mark A and family.

There's really no reason, at all, to even try to dream up a scenario where Braun is traded at this point in his career. All the control of such a move rests with Braun and with the Brewers contention window being open right now I don't think there's any way he leaves.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 7:39 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
I think we all know Braun and his contract have almost zero appeal to anybody.


I think we've finally reached the point where if the Brewers wanted to do something with Braun, they could

*read further*

But they can't because of Braun.

Someone, especially in the AL, would take Braun if the Brewers were rebuilding this year and were dead set on saving as much cash as possible for 2020. The Brewers could pick up the rest of 2019, half of 2020, and his buyout for 2021.

That sounds crappy but someone would probably take Braun for free this year, ~$8m next year, and the option to bring him back for $11m in 2021 with no penalty for not doing it. I'm not sure how the deferred payments would work out but they could figure it out.

Seems crappy to pick up so much of that, but $8m next year could be very useful.

But Braun would probably reject nearly any trade like this.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 7:49 AM Post
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This is the age old debate on these forums since the 00s; one faction would argue trading a pile of AA players for Mickey Mantle was an overpay. The other faction argues for the sure thing now over a future chance. Is either side right... nobody knows.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 8:00 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
This is the age old debate on these forums since the 00s; one faction would argue trading a pile of AA players for Mickey Mantle was an overpay. The other faction argues for the sure thing now over a future chance. Is either side right... nobody knows.


But you can make reasonable assumptions on it.

I do somewhat understand that the Reds want to get out of the cellar and maybe take a run at the playoffs.

But Bauer may be overvalued and they likely will miss the playoffs next year. Yes it's an age-old question and we asked it about Brinson but there was an actual window with Yelich. Odds are that the Reds will miss the playoffs in 2020 and have lost 20-30% of their useful farm system. Or they'll have to trade more of it to chase the Wild Card next year because all of the eggs are in that basket. Or they'll have to decide if they should pony up big $ for Bauer.

I get the unfairness of it because if nothing else, the Cubs will still bully their way to being at least a competitor for the Central next year while the Reds need to decide which year to make a run at it with their $130 million payroll. Or the Braves or some other larger market will be in competition for a WC. But this is incredibly risky because if you go all in even more on 2020 if you're the Reds and miss, you might be talking about 2024 as the next reasonable playoff chance, somewhat like Seattle's efforts 2015-2018, making shortsighted lobs at a playoff spot and leaving a massive hole in their farm system and bloated deals on the payroll.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 8:09 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
You do have to give teams credit for trying to win though. Really the Reds should have the best starting pitching in the division. 3-4 proven pen guys. And it's not like they don't have talent on offense. They have a legit shot. And they don't really have any big salary commitments other than Votto so they have flexibility to try more things in the offseason. The point of the team is to win, at some point you have to try to win. I like what they've done, it all makes sense to me. Only issue being they're in a tough division at a time when 3 other teams are also good/going for it, ETA plus as someone else said the whole NL being competitive


Last edited by tmwiese55 on July 31, 2019, 8:43 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 8:14 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
You do have to give teams credit for trying to win though. Really the Reds should have the best starting pitching in the division. 3-4 proven pen guys. And it's not like they don't have talent on offense. They have a legit shot. And they don't really have any big salary commitments other than Votto so they have flexibility to try more things in the offseason. The point of the team is to win, at some point you have to try to win. I like what they've done, it all makes sense to me. Only issue being they're in a tough division at a time when 3 other teams are also good/going for it.


I do get it from that angle. They've probably set themselves up at a decent shot at things going well and winning the division or at the very least being in the mix in July next year and pushing their way into the Wild Card. The chances of this blowing up in their face and pushing competition out even further are there, though.

Another problem is the pendulum not swinging far enough back to the AL by next year. Next year, I see probably the Pirates, Marlins, Giants, and maybe the Rockies as non-competitive NL teams.

It'll be another 2 years probably where it swings back to 5-7 competitive teams and 8-10 very middling/tanking teams like the AL is right now. That might be a better year to sneak in just by having a competitive roster.


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Offline  Re: This year's deadline
Posted: July 31, 2019, 8:23 AM Post
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Dealing Braun would be nice, but near impossible. Cain would be much better to move, but also near impossible. There's got to be a market for Grandal and Moose. Albers, Claudio, Aguilar all have at least some value and worth getting what you can get.

I just don't see the point in dealing Grisham +, or whatever it would take to get a really good SP. You still HOPE Woodruff can come back AND be effective immediately before it's too late. Davies has't looked to good lately, and then you have Gio, Anderson, maybe hope Houser can repeat what he did last night more often. Just way too many question marks for me in the rotation, and this lineup should be scoring more runs, bu they just aren't- especially early in games.

Sometimes you have to live to fight another day. I get the "anything can happen" angle, but I just don't see any way this team is wearing WS rings with the addition of a SP and another BP arm. Do you honestly see it happening? I've gone back and forth with nearly every game, but it's time to sell. Very hard for me to admit that. I was at the game on Saturday night, and it was incredible to see them come back and win that game- top 3 games I've ever attended. But my brain just caught the third ace with the river card, and busted my heart that was trying to bluff with a pair of eights.


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