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LH Reliever Targets

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Offline  LH Reliever Targets
#1

Posted: June 14, 2019, 1:19 PM Post
Posts: 5116
Location: New Berlin, WI
I know we have Hader and Claudio, but Hader is closer/multi-inning guy/you don't play matchups with him. Claudio could be a matchup guy, but I feel like we should have a 3rd lefty in the pen for the stretch run and potentially playoffs. Will Smith and Tony Watson are 2 obvious guys that we should be looking at, any other suggestions? Also any thoughts on cost for your potential suggestions?

I'm imagining a bullpen with Hader, Jeffress, Shane Greene(or other righty), Will Smith(or other lefty), Houser, Claudio at the back end with Guerra in long relief. We'd probably have a very long list of starters/relievers that could get the last 1-2 spots, I imagine we roll with whoever is throwing well at the time. This pen would be incredible as is, and could still be very good depending who we add in those 2 spots...but I think we want 2 pen arms.


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#2

Posted: June 14, 2019, 2:16 PM Post
Posts: 3060
Since I’m going big already for Bauer and Santana, but still want an impact reliever, I go with Jake Diekman.

Jake Diekman > Marcos Diplan & Taylor Williams


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#3

Posted: June 14, 2019, 3:57 PM Post
Posts: 455
Brew crew 92 said:
Since I’m going big already for Bauer and Santana, but still want an impact reliever, I go with Jake Diekman.

Jake Diekman > Marcos Diplan & Taylor Williams


I'd make the deal right away if KC would take two bums in return for Diekman.


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#4

Posted: June 14, 2019, 4:58 PM Post
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Will Smith would be the ideal target because he wouldn't have to close and could be used more based on matchups (not that he is really struggling as the full-time closer). From 2017-2019 he has best xFIP against LHB in all of the majors by a substantial margin. Dominant lefty killer.

A lower profile guy is Tim Mayza on the Blue Jays. He's been solid overall in a relative small sample over the last two seasons, but especially effective against lefties.


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Online  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#5

Posted: June 14, 2019, 8:21 PM Post
Posts: 1149
Location: Ohio
Another possibility is Oliver Perez. He is having a very good season in the Cleveland bullpen..


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#6

Posted: June 14, 2019, 9:28 PM Post
Posts: 86
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
Just to be a little different I was looking for somebody the Brewers could try to take a low risk chance on in the minors for this type of situation. Sam Selman stood out to me as a 28 year old lefty putting up ridiculous numbers in AAA for the (surprise) Giants (it seems inevitable we end up matching up with them for a reliever eventually). I’m guessing we go for a more proven commodity but this is just another interesting guy that I’ll be keeping an eye on now!


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#7

Posted: June 15, 2019, 12:07 AM Post
Posts: 18984
wntrtxn21 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Since I’m going big already for Bauer and Santana, but still want an impact reliever, I go with Jake Diekman.

Jake Diekman > Marcos Diplan & Taylor Williams


I'd make the deal right away if KC would take two bums in return for Diekman.


I think it's a pretty good proposal honestly. Williams is probably a good arm for Kansas City to take a shot on, and Diplan still has some minimal prospective value. Both guys could use a change of scenery.

Diekman is a nice lefty arm to take a shot on but his control issues and results this year don't warrant a much bigger return than this.


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Online  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#8

Posted: June 15, 2019, 9:17 AM Post
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MadThinker88 said:
Another possibility is Oliver Perez. He is having a very good season in the Cleveland bullpen..

His career fascinates me. It is almost like he has had two separate careers, one as a starter in his 20’s and a second as a reliever in his 30’s. He has been in the majors since 2002. He will turn 38 later this season and is sitting on $65 million in career earnings (and counting).


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Online  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#9

Posted: June 15, 2019, 9:31 AM Post
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The true impact left handed relievers mostly likely to be “available”...

Sean Doolittle, Nationals (1.5 years of control)

Brad Hand, Indians (2.5 years of control)

Will Smith, Giants (0.5 years of control)

Amir Garrett, Reds (4.5 years of control)


Hand and Garrett would likely net a significant package of prospects in order to motivate the Indians or Reds to move them. Smith and Doolittle seem more attainable, but will also attract plenty of attention at this year’s deadline.


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Online  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#10

Posted: June 15, 2019, 10:09 AM Post
Posts: 1149
Location: Ohio
Eye Black said:
The true impact left handed relievers mostly likely to be “available”...

Sean Doolittle, Nationals (1.5 years of control)

Brad Hand, Indians (2.5 years of control)

Will Smith, Giants (0.5 years of control)

Amir Garrett, Reds (4.5 years of control)


Hand and Garrett would likely net a significant package of prospects in order to motivate the Indians or Reds to move them. Smith and Doolittle seem more attainable, but will also attract plenty of attention at this year’s deadline.


Which was part of the reason I suggested O Perez. He is under a reasonable contract this year and has a vesting option for next year (2.75M for 55 games played or 3M for 60 games played).. So far he has 29 games thru 6/14/19..


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#11

Posted: June 16, 2019, 7:18 AM Post
Posts: 12101
Would the Indians take Peralta, Shaw and a low level lottery pick or two for Hand?


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Online  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#12

Posted: June 16, 2019, 8:31 AM Post
Posts: 1149
Location: Ohio
JohnBriggs12 said:
Would the Indians take Peralta, Shaw and a low level lottery pick or two for Hand?


I find that offering to be unlikely. I think there are 2 possible models to be followed.

One is the Andrew Miller deal of 2016 as a guide/ model. The amount of control remaining, the reasonableness of the money for those contract years, the performance this season by Hand to the year Miller was having at that point in 2016 is all very similar. It could be argued that Hand is performing better this year than Miller was pre-trade in 2016. That model would suggest TWO top 100 prospects (1 in top 50) plus two other pieces.

The other model is the Hand deal of 2018. In that case Hand (& another bullpen arm) were dealt for a top 15 prospect in all of baseball (F. Mejia).

Ultimately it takes 2 teams to agree. If the offer Briggs made is the best out there for the Tribe, they have to decide to accept it or hold onto Hand for the rest of the season & then determine options in the off-season (keep him or deal him).


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#13

Posted: June 17, 2019, 9:06 AM Post
Posts: 5116
Location: New Berlin, WI
I've seen a lot of mentions of Indians relievers and starters, are we sure the Indians are going to sell? I know the Twins are having a big first half...but no guarantee that offense keeps producing at such a level. Plus, the Indians are heavily in win mode...they are pretty much 1-2 years away from a complete tear down. Probably makes more sense to go big now.

I also think I'd aim a bit higher than Diekman. I don't think I want to risk control issues in late season baseball.


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#14

Posted: June 17, 2019, 2:18 PM Post
Posts: 511
MadThinker88 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Would the Indians take Peralta, Shaw and a low level lottery pick or two for Hand?


I find that offering to be unlikely. I think there are 2 possible models to be followed.

One is the Andrew Miller deal of 2016 as a guide/ model. The amount of control remaining, the reasonableness of the money for those contract years, the performance this season by Hand to the year Miller was having at that point in 2016 is all very similar. It could be argued that Hand is performing better this year than Miller was pre-trade in 2016. That model would suggest TWO top 100 prospects (1 in top 50) plus two other pieces.

The other model is the Hand deal of 2018. In that case Hand (& another bullpen arm) were dealt for a top 15 prospect in all of baseball (F. Mejia).

Ultimately it takes 2 teams to agree. If the offer Briggs made is the best out there for the Tribe, they have to decide to accept it or hold onto Hand for the rest of the season & then determine options in the off-season (keep him or deal him).


If I am understanding you correctly I agree I just don't see that offer coming from the Brewers, for whatever reason they seem to really like Peralta and I don't see them moving him as part of a larger deal for a reliever. It is in interesting package though, Shaw is about the same age as Hand, has the same amount of control left and has put up more WAR in his career. He would be a nice buy low candidate for a team that could use a LH slugging infielder and to get a young pitching prospect like Peralta in the deal as well seems to be a package similar to the #15 prospect the Indians gave up last year. Sort of a trade of major leaguers between 2 good rosters that we don't seem to see enough of anymore. You would probably have a good idea if it makes sense for the Tribe but I would say not a bad idea for the Crew since it resolves an immediate need and clears up a spot for Hiura and a possible Moose extension.


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Online  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#15

Posted: June 17, 2019, 5:37 PM Post
Posts: 1149
Location: Ohio
OldHeidelberg said:
If I am understanding you correctly I agree I just don't see that offer coming from the Brewers, for whatever reason they seem to really like Peralta and I don't see them moving him as part of a larger deal for a reliever. It is in interesting package though, Shaw is about the same age as Hand, has the same amount of control left and has put up more WAR in his career. He would be a nice buy low candidate for a team that could use a LH slugging infielder and to get a young pitching prospect like Peralta in the deal as well seems to be a package similar to the #15 prospect the Indians gave up last year. Sort of a trade of major leaguers between 2 good rosters that we don't seem to see enough of anymore. You would probably have a good idea if it makes sense for the Tribe but I would say not a bad idea for the Crew since it resolves an immediate need and clears up a spot for Hiura and a possible Moose extension.


While the proposal might work from the Brewer side, to be clear I doubt the Tribe accepts that package proposed by Briggs.

The Tribe is NOT in need of a LH slugging INF... As it is the Tribe sluggers are either LH or Switch hitters... If the Tribe really wanted more LH power, their top 1B prospect is Bobby Bradley at AAA Columbus (International league). 22 homers already. He is already on the 40 man roster & is a pure lefty.

Listen, I am a fan of Freddy Peralta (I've thought for a while he would make a VERY good RHRP) & a fan of Travis Shaw (he & I both went to Kent State) but considering the number of teams that would have an interest in Brad Hand (if he was to be dealt) the offerings of those other teams are likely much greater than the Briggs suggestion...

Its why I pointed to Oliver Perez. He won't cost as much to acquire and it allows the Brewers to retain & use its assets for other needs.


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#16

Posted: June 17, 2019, 7:01 PM Post
Posts: 511
OK, I guess I should have known what you meant by "unlikely offering" since you always reply to these Indian trade proposals from the Cleveland side of things. If Cleveland has no use for Shaw than this is obviously a non starter. But Hand has one year less control than when you traded for him last year and for a contender a guy like Will Smith can come a lot cheaper so not sure the offers if Cleveland decides to sell will be as high as you expect or at least not that much more than a Shaw/Peralta package which value wise isn't insulting IMO. It's possible I may overrate Peralta.The Brewers need help but have Hader so adding guys like Swarzack or Soria like past years is a much better value for them, maybe as you say Oliver Perez is the guy.


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#17

Posted: June 17, 2019, 7:36 PM Post
Posts: 455
MadThinker88 said:
OldHeidelberg said:
If I am understanding you correctly I agree I just don't see that offer coming from the Brewers, for whatever reason they seem to really like Peralta and I don't see them moving him as part of a larger deal for a reliever. It is in interesting package though, Shaw is about the same age as Hand, has the same amount of control left and has put up more WAR in his career. He would be a nice buy low candidate for a team that could use a LH slugging infielder and to get a young pitching prospect like Peralta in the deal as well seems to be a package similar to the #15 prospect the Indians gave up last year. Sort of a trade of major leaguers between 2 good rosters that we don't seem to see enough of anymore. You would probably have a good idea if it makes sense for the Tribe but I would say not a bad idea for the Crew since it resolves an immediate need and clears up a spot for Hiura and a possible Moose extension.


While the proposal might work from the Brewer side, to be clear I doubt the Tribe accepts that package proposed by Briggs.

The Tribe is NOT in need of a LH slugging INF... As it is the Tribe sluggers are either LH or Switch hitters... If the Tribe really wanted more LH power, their top 1B prospect is Bobby Bradley at AAA Columbus (International league). 22 homers already. He is already on the 40 man roster & is a pure lefty.

Listen, I am a fan of Freddy Peralta (I've thought for a while he would make a VERY good RHRP) & a fan of Travis Shaw (he & I both went to Kent State) but considering the number of teams that would have an interest in Brad Hand (if he was to be dealt) the offerings of those other teams are likely much greater than the Briggs suggestion...

Its why I pointed to Oliver Perez. He won't cost as much to acquire and it allows the Brewers to retain & use its assets for other needs.


I'm a little leery of Perez. 38 yrs old and has regressed significantly over last year. More hits than IPs and 10 ERs in only 21 IPs. He is headed in the wrong direction.


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#18

Posted: June 18, 2019, 7:55 AM Post
Posts: 5116
Location: New Berlin, WI
OldHeidelberg said:
OK, I guess I should have known what you meant by "unlikely offering" since you always reply to these Indian trade proposals from the Cleveland side of things. If Cleveland has no use for Shaw than this is obviously a non starter. But Hand has one year less control than when you traded for him last year and for a contender a guy like Will Smith can come a lot cheaper so not sure the offers if Cleveland decides to sell will be as high as you expect or at least not that much more than a Shaw/Peralta package which value wise isn't insulting IMO. It's possible I may overrate Peralta.The Brewers need help but have Hader so adding guys like Swarzack or Soria like past years is a much better value for them, maybe as you say Oliver Perez is the guy.


I don't think your proposal was bad simply from a value standpoint. I personally question whether the Indians will sell at all. If they do, LH infielder isn't what they are looking for considering their current roster. They'd probably want outfield help, preferably RH...at least that's what I would want if I was them.


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Online  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#19

Posted: June 18, 2019, 9:47 AM Post
Posts: 1742
Location: Madison, WI
If I'm Cleveland, I wouldn't be a seller at all. They are 3 over .500, and only 1.5 games back in the wild card. Everyone assumes that the Yankees/Rays/Red Sox are playoff locks, but I wouldn't make that assumption if I were the Indians. They still only have one major issue IMO, and that is their offensive output from the outfield is awful. If that starting pitching gets healthy and back in the swing of things, the potential is there to have a really dominant pitching staff. But there should be some cheap outfield options on the trade market like Melky Cabrera who just look really average on paper but could definitely provide a good boost. Two years later and I still think Domingo Santana could be an ideal fit for them. I'd be open to dealing Brad Hand, but I'd want a MLB outfielder with some offensive ability back as part of the deal. Ben Gamel might be a fit, but in a deal for a guy like Brad Hand, he'd probably have to be the third piece in the deal. But any deals for Cleveland would either be a buy or a retool, and not a strict sell. Cleveland could be sellers this off-season if they approach Lindor and he says "10 years, 350 million absolute minimum," then they would have to entertain trading him and might decide to do a tear down at that point. But 3 games over and 1.5 games out with some of those pitchers coming back from injury, I think they are in a pretty good spot to make a couple minor outfielder deals and see what happens over the rest of this season.


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Offline  Re: LH Reliever Targets
#20

Posted: June 19, 2019, 8:27 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Since I’m going big already for Bauer and Santana, but still want an impact reliever, I go with Jake Diekman.

Jake Diekman > Marcos Diplan & Taylor Williams

Given Diekman's high career BB rate, and his $5.7M 2020 mutual option with $500K buyout, the Royals are unlikely to get more than this for him. Since his move to the bullpen, Diplan has a .564 OPS-A as a reliever (albeit with an unsustainable BABIP). They might be able to get Diekman for Diplan straight-up.

I'd see if the Royals would take Aguilar plus a proverbial lottery pick. Aguilar is having a down year, but is cheap and under control until 2023. Straight up for Diekman he saves the Royals about $1.4M this year with three more years of control to find his magic again.


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