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Sell Mode: Not so silly anymore...

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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#41

Posted: June 21, 2019, 10:39 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
??

Meadows would pencil right in to our starting OF for the next 6 years. He would be an immediate and huge upgrade in our lineup right NOW.

Glasnow is about to come off the DL and was having a Cy Young type season. He has ace stuff and would probably slot in at the top of our rotation for the next 5 years.

Baz is a top 100 prospect with ace upside. Who cares. He's just gravy.

I love Hader and I think it would be absolutely nuts from our perspective not to jump on this without a moment's hesitation.


I'm not completely sold on any of those guys. I am completely sold on Hader...and if we have a chance to get to the WS this year with the guys we have (and I still think we do) I want Hader on my team. It's as simple as that.

I might change my tune in a month, if we are still hovering around .500 and the pitching staff continues to fail. Then the reward of getting those future years will easily surpass the risk of keeping Hader for a WS run.

Still, I really think we can trade Hader, Grandal and Moustakas for a SERIOUS haul in July and perhaps re-sign Moose or Grandal this offseason, which would set us up very nicely for the years to come.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#42

Posted: June 22, 2019, 9:21 AM Post
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Haven’t exactly studied this, but off the top of my head these are my best guesses in terms of potential suitors for a half season of Grandal and Moustakas (obviously this is assuming these teams would still be in playoff contention)...

Grandal: Rays, Padres, Angels, Rangers

Moustakas: Phillies, Angels


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#43

Posted: June 22, 2019, 10:37 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
I don't see Grandal or Moustakas bringing back huge returns. Attanasio and Stearns always seem to want to be in the mix, which means if they sell, it probably won't happen until the last minute. So a team trading for Grandal or Moustakas will only have them for two months. And both of them make pretty good money which pushes down their surplus value. Plus the rule changes, so now a team trading for them cannot factor getting a comp pick as part of the value they are receiving. Even if Grandal and/or Moustakas are valued at rock solid 3.6 WAR players, trading for 2 months is only getting about 1.2 WAR. So a team is getting 10.8 million in value. Including the mutual option buyout, Grandal will still be getting about 7.5 million in salary. With Moustakas the payout will be about 5.3 million. I definitely think the Brewers would get considerably more than the straight surplus value numbers indicate Grandal and Moustakas' values are. But I'd doubt if the price gets much over a back end "top ten organizational prospect" plus another prospect in the 20-30 range of a team's top prospect list.


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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#44

Posted: June 22, 2019, 1:09 PM Post
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JosephC said:
But I'd doubt if the price gets much over a back end "top ten organizational prospect" plus another prospect in the 20-30 range of a team's top prospect list.


Maybe but if you are getting those guys from the Padres or Rays they are probably going to end up as a really good player.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#45

Posted: June 24, 2019, 2:45 PM Post
Posts: 1967
JosephC said:
I don't see Grandal or Moustakas bringing back huge returns. Attanasio and Stearns always seem to want to be in the mix, which means if they sell, it probably won't happen until the last minute. So a team trading for Grandal or Moustakas will only have them for two months. And both of them make pretty good money which pushes down their surplus value. Plus the rule changes, so now a team trading for them cannot factor getting a comp pick as part of the value they are receiving. Even if Grandal and/or Moustakas are valued at rock solid 3.6 WAR players, trading for 2 months is only getting about 1.2 WAR. So a team is getting 10.8 million in value. Including the mutual option buyout, Grandal will still be getting about 7.5 million in salary. With Moustakas the payout will be about 5.3 million. I definitely think the Brewers would get considerably more than the straight surplus value numbers indicate Grandal and Moustakas' values are. But I'd doubt if the price gets much over a back end "top ten organizational prospect" plus another prospect in the 20-30 range of a team's top prospect list.


I think you have to trade Grandal or Moose for whatever you get, unless you are signing them to an extension (which is a different thread).

Regardless of prospects, you are saving that money, which they will need for Grandal 2020 and/or a starting pitcher.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#46

Posted: June 25, 2019, 9:29 AM Post
Posts: 502
Roderick said:
JosephC said:
I don't see Grandal or Moustakas bringing back huge returns. Attanasio and Stearns always seem to want to be in the mix, which means if they sell, it probably won't happen until the last minute. So a team trading for Grandal or Moustakas will only have them for two months. And both of them make pretty good money which pushes down their surplus value. Plus the rule changes, so now a team trading for them cannot factor getting a comp pick as part of the value they are receiving. Even if Grandal and/or Moustakas are valued at rock solid 3.6 WAR players, trading for 2 months is only getting about 1.2 WAR. So a team is getting 10.8 million in value. Including the mutual option buyout, Grandal will still be getting about 7.5 million in salary. With Moustakas the payout will be about 5.3 million. I definitely think the Brewers would get considerably more than the straight surplus value numbers indicate Grandal and Moustakas' values are. But I'd doubt if the price gets much over a back end "top ten organizational prospect" plus another prospect in the 20-30 range of a team's top prospect list.


I think you have to trade Grandal or Moose for whatever you get, unless you are signing them to an extension (which is a different thread).

Regardless of prospects, you are saving that money, which they will need for Grandal 2020 and/or a starting pitcher.


Exactly! If the Brewers were to end up in sell mode, then you absolutely need to try to trade as many of the valuable assets you have on the roster that will be F/A's at the end of this season. Get whatever prospect value you can for them, and then you could even make a run at signing 1-2 of them again in the offseason, to make another run in 2020. With that said - I don't think any of us want to think about this scenario, so hopefully the Crew will get hot here over the next month and make this a moot discussion.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#47

Posted: June 25, 2019, 11:12 AM Post
Posts: 502
Roderick said:
JosephC said:
I don't see Grandal or Moustakas bringing back huge returns. Attanasio and Stearns always seem to want to be in the mix, which means if they sell, it probably won't happen until the last minute. So a team trading for Grandal or Moustakas will only have them for two months. And both of them make pretty good money which pushes down their surplus value. Plus the rule changes, so now a team trading for them cannot factor getting a comp pick as part of the value they are receiving. Even if Grandal and/or Moustakas are valued at rock solid 3.6 WAR players, trading for 2 months is only getting about 1.2 WAR. So a team is getting 10.8 million in value. Including the mutual option buyout, Grandal will still be getting about 7.5 million in salary. With Moustakas the payout will be about 5.3 million. I definitely think the Brewers would get considerably more than the straight surplus value numbers indicate Grandal and Moustakas' values are. But I'd doubt if the price gets much over a back end "top ten organizational prospect" plus another prospect in the 20-30 range of a team's top prospect list.


I think you have to trade Grandal or Moose for whatever you get, unless you are signing them to an extension (which is a different thread).

Regardless of prospects, you are saving that money, which they will need for Grandal 2020 and/or a starting pitcher.


Exactly! If the Brewers were to end up in sell mode, then you absolutely need to try to trade as many of the valuable assets you have on the roster that will be F/A's at the end of this season. Get whatever prospect value you can for them, and then you could even make a run at signing 1-2 of them again in the offseason, to make another run in 2020. With that said - I don't think any of us want to think about this scenario, so hopefully the Crew will get hot here over the next month and make this a moot discussion.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#48

Posted: June 25, 2019, 4:55 PM Post
Posts: 324
#1 on the sell mode list: Lorenzo Cain. I don't like the back end of his contract. I think Moose, Grandal, Pina, Davies and obviously, Hader, would all draw interest.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#49

Posted: June 25, 2019, 7:43 PM Post
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BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
#1 on the sell mode list: Lorenzo Cain. I don't like the back end of his contract. I think Moose, Grandal, Pina, Davies and obviously, Hader, would all draw interest.


Davies?

I also saw Anderson on someone else's list that other teams would want.

Why would anyone want either of these guys, especially for anything of value.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#50

Posted: June 25, 2019, 7:59 PM Post
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You could not get anyone of value for Chacin ,Anderson and Davies combined.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#51

Posted: June 25, 2019, 8:12 PM Post
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Sell! Sell! Sell!


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#52

Posted: June 25, 2019, 11:45 PM Post
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lcbj68c said:
Sell! Sell! Sell!


Buy and Trade


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#53

Posted: June 26, 2019, 4:55 AM Post
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lcbj68c said:
Sell! Sell! Sell!


Unless you mean Miller Beer at Miller Park in October, this makes no sense.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#54

Posted: June 26, 2019, 9:19 AM Post
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Location: Chicago
Last year, Lance Lynn had a 5.10era 1.63whip and pitched 100 innings across 20 starts for the Twins, YET the New York Yankees traded a solid A-ball prospect and MLB player Tyler Austin in exchange for Lynn.

Swingman Matt Andriese with a career 4.32era and 1.32whip was traded at the deadline last year from Tampa to Arizona.

Back in 2015 the Brewers shipped off Gerardo Parra as a rental and got Zach Davies. While Davies isn't anything special he's started 95 games for the Brewers and has won nearly half of them and almost twice as many as he has lost.

So the point is if the Brewers are going to be sellers at the end of July, I'm positive they can and would move: Moustakas, Grandal, Gio Gonzalez, Chacin and Albers.

Although to get more than a warm body in return for Moustakas and Grandal the Brewers would likely have to include sizable amounts of cash. Grandal is one of the highest paid catchers and has a 2.5 million dollar buyout on his option. Moustakas has a three million dollar buy out. Even if paying significant cash, these are still rental players and teams just don't trade the quality of prospects they did for rentals in the past. Outside of the Cubs, Yankees every contender would have some degree of interest in Grandal.

The best asset the Brewers have to trade is probably Matt Albers. Teams cannot have enough relief pitching. Albers is having a nice year (3.90era 1.08whip 9.5k per 9 inn), and has an expiring contract paying him a relatively small amount. Every contender would be interested in Albers as well.

Both Chase Anderson and Chacin have established track records of back of the rotation starters. While neither would bring back much talent in return there here is certainly value there for contending teams looking for arms to soak up innings. Anderson would even come with two additional years of team control at affordable prices.

Then there are a couple players on the roster that the Brewers "could" trade but probably wouldn't. Jeremy Jeffress would be in high demand if available but he only seems to pitch well in Milwaukee and with a team option for 2020, I would guess the team would have to be blown away to swap him off.

Eric Thames is another player who would have some value to contending clubs. No performance issues coming off the bench, left handed, hits for power, nice OBP, team friendly contract with an option. However it is that option that would make it hard to ship Thames off. If Aguilar never gets it going and the front office believes he truly was a flash in the pan, I doubt they'd trade Thames away and have to be looking to a hole at first base in 2020.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#55

Posted: June 26, 2019, 4:39 PM Post
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If its not looking good in a month, I would be fine with tear it down mode. Sell Yelich, Hader, anyone with value. Could even lead to a top draft pick or two. Wouldn't go over well with almost all fans, but arguably build a better conteder in a few years.

I bought in to the concept that SP wasnt as important as I thought, but now Im not so sure. Rotation is a mess, and not likely to get much better next year. Not calling for them to burn it down, just saying I would be fine with it.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#56

Posted: June 26, 2019, 7:10 PM Post
Posts: 32
Location: Madison
I wouldn't go into a buy or sell mode. I don't see them getting enough value in return this year as buyers and sell offs would throw them into a rebuild.

I'd work to stabilize as many pitchers as possible under multi-year team control, demote Shaw and Arcia, and promote Hiura and Dubon.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#57

Posted: June 26, 2019, 7:48 PM Post
Posts: 1232
FVBrewerFan said:
If its not looking good in a month, I would be fine with tear it down mode. Sell Yelich, Hader, anyone with value. Could even lead to a top draft pick or two. Wouldn't go over well with almost all fans, but arguably build a better conteder in a few years.

I bought in to the concept that SP wasnt as important as I thought, but now Im not so sure. Rotation is a mess, and not likely to get much better next year. Not calling for them to burn it down, just saying I would be fine with it.



That rotation that's a mess could look very different in just a year though. I don't think it's hard to envision Corbin Burnes following Woodruff to be a #2 type starter and we've got depth.

Either way, I don't think this team need to sell Yelich and Hader and hope that we can turn around and become a winner again in short order.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#58

Posted: June 26, 2019, 7:58 PM Post
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BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
#1 on the sell mode list: Lorenzo Cain. I don't like the back end of his contract. I think Moose, Grandal, Pina, Davies and obviously, Hader, would all draw interest.


Trade the guy who's making a bunch of money and is having the worst year of his career?

I don't see our phone ringing off the hook on that one. We're better off holding on to Cain as trading him now would mean basically just dumping him and sending money along with him.


I don't want to trade Yelich(I could be convinced to trade Hader) when we're struggling, but if we're going to seriously sell, we need to trade people other teams actually want.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#59

Posted: June 26, 2019, 9:09 PM Post
Posts: 8295
OnTheBlack said:
FVBrewerFan said:
If its not looking good in a month, I would be fine with tear it down mode. Sell Yelich, Hader, anyone with value. Could even lead to a top draft pick or two. Wouldn't go over well with almost all fans, but arguably build a better conteder in a few years.

I bought in to the concept that SP wasnt as important as I thought, but now Im not so sure. Rotation is a mess, and not likely to get much better next year. Not calling for them to burn it down, just saying I would be fine with it.



That rotation that's a mess could look very different in just a year though. I don't think it's hard to envision Corbin Burnes following Woodruff to be a #2 type starter and we've got depth.

Either way, I don't think this team need to sell Yelich and Hader and hope that we can turn around and become a winner again in short order.


Could. I mean anything could happen, but I dont see WS rotation or even the makings of a really good 1-3 that can compete in the playoffs. Burnes of all people certainly cant be counted on. True rebuilds are no fun to go through, but after a few years neither are Herb Kohl Bucks "competitive" teams. If the goal really is to win a WS rebuilding may be the best way forward.

Alternative is for Mark A to really blow out the payroll for a couple years. I would prefer that, but thats not likely either.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#60

Posted: June 26, 2019, 9:20 PM Post
Posts: 273
OnTheBlack said:
FVBrewerFan said:
If its not looking good in a month, I would be fine with tear it down mode. Sell Yelich, Hader, anyone with value. Could even lead to a top draft pick or two. Wouldn't go over well with almost all fans, but arguably build a better conteder in a few years.

I bought in to the concept that SP wasnt as important as I thought, but now Im not so sure. Rotation is a mess, and not likely to get much better next year. Not calling for them to burn it down, just saying I would be fine with it.



That rotation that's a mess could look very different in just a year though. I don't think it's hard to envision Corbin Burnes following Woodruff to be a #2 type starter and we've got depth.

Either way, I don't think this team need to sell Yelich and Hader and hope that we can turn around and become a winner again in short order.


I think it's very hard to envision Burnes being anything but a pen arm. He has done absolutely nothing as a starter to indicate he will be a #5 much less a #2. They have mound depth but nobody even close to helping. Anybody even close to a starter has been tried and been an abysmal failure so far with the exception of Woodruff and Davies. Davies has been horrible his last three starts, Gio got rocked in two of his five starts and is a 4-5 inning guy. Chacin, Anderson, Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, and Houser (tonight) have been terrible. Brown has been awful in AAA.


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