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Sell Mode: Now Buy Mode, We Got Lyles, Pomeranz, Black, and Faria!!

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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#61

Posted: June 26, 2019, 10:23 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
A few more weeks of this and this thread will really be heating up.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#62

Posted: June 27, 2019, 12:51 AM Post
Posts: 1390
FVBrewerFan said:
OnTheBlack said:
FVBrewerFan said:
If its not looking good in a month, I would be fine with tear it down mode. Sell Yelich, Hader, anyone with value. Could even lead to a top draft pick or two. Wouldn't go over well with almost all fans, but arguably build a better conteder in a few years.

I bought in to the concept that SP wasnt as important as I thought, but now Im not so sure. Rotation is a mess, and not likely to get much better next year. Not calling for them to burn it down, just saying I would be fine with it.



That rotation that's a mess could look very different in just a year though. I don't think it's hard to envision Corbin Burnes following Woodruff to be a #2 type starter and we've got depth.

Either way, I don't think this team need to sell Yelich and Hader and hope that we can turn around and become a winner again in short order.


Could. I mean anything could happen, but I dont see WS rotation or even the makings of a really good 1-3 that can compete in the playoffs. Burnes of all people certainly cant be counted on. True rebuilds are no fun to go through, but after a few years neither are Herb Kohl Bucks "competitive" teams. If the goal really is to win a WS rebuilding may be the best way forward.

Alternative is for Mark A to really blow out the payroll for a couple years. I would prefer that, but thats not likely either.


I don't think blowing the payroll out is likely, and I agree we need an ace and there are very few of those. This upcoming FA pitching class is loaded. Gerritt Cole should be the guy we target. It's unlikely, but when you've got Yelich signed through 2022 for 15 million or less, Braun's deal coming off the books following next year, you should be willing to go out and spend for a true ace.

Re-Burnes, I'll reiterate what someone else said recently, player development isn't linear..not that I'm telling you something you don't know, but the problem with Burnes isn't his stuff, we've seen it. It's better than Woodruffs. He's got a starting pitchers repertoire and we've also seen him dominate in high leverage situations. I don't think it's unreasonable to at least hope that you can get him on track and that he could be a TOR type arm. In this unlikely scenario, you'd have Cole, Woodruff and Burnes with a number of guys for the other two spots. Davies has been really good this year up until his last few starts, but over the course of a season is a reasonably reliable #4. Peralta, Houser or any number of other pitchers could fill out the final spot.

The pen figures to be much stronger next year just through players returning and young guys coming up. Rasmussen takes some imagination, but when you're talking about what a hypothetical team would look like, it always does. You can reasonably count on Knebel, Wahl, Houser(if not starting), Hader, Jeffress and again, a number of younger guys who have very good arms.

The lineup may take a bit of a hit as I doubt we'd be able to re-sign Grandal, but I'm still of the opinion that Shaw will get it going. Hiura will be entrenched at 2nd, our OF should be set.

This is an optimistic view, but I don't think it's some crazy way out there idea. Payroll of ~140 million. But which scenario is more likely, that the Brewers do this and are competitive, or they go through this whole full blown rebuild(one that we were supposed to be doing and I was in favor of, but a few lucky moves and we sped up the time table) and we hit on enough players to build up and get back and build a competitive team? You're taking a risk doing either, but a tear down is hardly a fool-proof remedy. There's no guarantee that we hit on almost EVER pick like the Astros did and that was over about 520 losses over a 5 year period.

I don't want to see us in a "Bucks" type situation during the Kohl era(though he was at least trying to win). But that's very different than what we're doing. They were struggling to be one of the top ~20 teams in the league? They were trying to make the playoffs in the weak East, usually just missing or as a low seed.


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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#63

Posted: June 27, 2019, 1:07 AM Post
Posts: 1390
wntrtxn21 said:

I think it's very hard to envision Burnes being anything but a pen arm. He has done absolutely nothing as a starter to indicate he will be a #5 much less a #2.




Then you don't have much of an imagination. He throws in the mid to upper 90's, has 4 pitches and has dominated in the minors and when extended as a reliever. He's even been dominant at times this year.

He's also 24 years old and if he hadn't been so dominant as a starting pitcher throughout the minors, he'd be following the model of Woodruff and he wouldn't have started the year in the rotation, but rather as a top 50 prospect(which he was) in AAA.

He has 4 pitches that grade out at 55 or 60, can hit the upper 90's later in games and again, he's shown he can dominate elite competition. Simply because he's struggled to locate his fastball this early in his career hardly means he's "nothing more" than a reliever. I mean...the guy didn't start pitching in full season baseball until two years ago.

If you've given up on him as a starter after 4 starts(one of which he struck out 12) then I'm really happen the guys in control are more patient than you.

Burnes has been either dominant or terrible this season. When he's terrible, it's because he's leaving his fastball over the middle and struggling with command...not exactly rare for a young pitcher. But again, 4 pitches, can tough 98-99.....and we've seen how good we can be. If you can't envision him being a #5 starter, much less a #2, what exactly would it take? A guy who comes up and never struggles and dominates his entire career? I guess it's pretty much Kershaw or bust for you then. And at that point, you might as well throw in the towel.


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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#64

Posted: June 27, 2019, 1:18 AM Post
Posts: 1390
Brew4U said:
A few more weeks of this and this thread will really be heating up.



Ebbs and flows. I've been in favor of sticking with Shaw for the first two months, but we're well past the point that he needs to go back down. Aguilar is starting to slowly show some signs of some life...I guess.

But we need Hiura back, I doubt Davies continues to pitch this poorly.

We lost 5 in a row right before the ASB last year and then the first couple back from the Break and we couldn't beat the Cubs for our lives. I think we'll pick it up.


But yeah, we need to shake things up a bit and the first move should be the most obvious, swap out #3 hitters between SA and Milwaukee, help Shaw get his confidence back...which I have little doubt he'll do and put Hiura into the lineup.

If that doesn't work, then I think you put Jeffress, Grandal, Mouse all firmly on the market(as well as a few others that likely won't garner much interest like Cain, Thames and Anderson). Let teams make offers for Hader and if we get a Chapman like return, do it.

But too many players have played too far below what they're capable of this year to date. I'm confident we'll get it going in the right direction and if not, then we reload ala Oakland.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#65

Posted: June 27, 2019, 8:44 AM Post
Posts: 460
I never want the team to lose, but I am rooting for a selloff at the deadline. This roster is not championship caliber no matter who they add at the deadline. They can get a haul for Grandal and Moose, who likely won't be around next year anyways. I would like to see them dangle Arcia out there and see what he might bring back and insert Dubon into the SS position if Arcia is traded. We may also have a few bullpen pieces other teams may have interest in as well.


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#66

Posted: June 27, 2019, 9:14 AM Post
Posts: 18514
shanedog19 said:
I never want the team to lose, but I am rooting for a selloff at the deadline. This roster is not championship caliber no matter who they add at the deadline. They can get a haul for Grandal and Moose, who likely won't be around next year anyways. I would like to see them dangle Arcia out there and see what he might bring back and insert Dubon into the SS position if Arcia is traded. We may also have a few bullpen pieces other teams may have interest in as well.


I think people would be disappointed to see what Grandal and Moose would bring back. You're not going to get a haul for either. Rentals just don't bring back great returns anymore, and especially with Grandal, his price tag cuts into his surplus value.

Don't get me wrong, you can get something. You're probably going to base your asking price around the Machado price tag last year but end up having to settle for less.


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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#67

Posted: June 27, 2019, 12:10 PM Post
Posts: 716
adambr2 said:
shanedog19 said:
I never want the team to lose, but I am rooting for a selloff at the deadline. This roster is not championship caliber no matter who they add at the deadline. They can get a haul for Grandal and Moose, who likely won't be around next year anyways. I would like to see them dangle Arcia out there and see what he might bring back and insert Dubon into the SS position if Arcia is traded. We may also have a few bullpen pieces other teams may have interest in as well.


I think people would be disappointed to see what Grandal and Moose would bring back. You're not going to get a haul for either. Rentals just don't bring back great returns anymore, and especially with Grandal, his price tag cuts into his surplus value.

Don't get me wrong, you can get something. You're probably going to base your asking price around the Machado price tag last year but end up having to settle for less.


Neither is going to bring back the Lucroy haul. However, I believe Grandal would have some suitors and would net a top 100 prospect type. He is an impact bat who could really help someone.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#68

Posted: June 27, 2019, 1:33 PM Post
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Hader and Grandal to the Rays for Wander Franco, Brent Honeywell, Shane Baz and Matt Liberatore. Or McKay, Sanchez, Brujan, Honeywell and Baz.


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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#69

Posted: June 27, 2019, 2:48 PM Post
Posts: 2919
Oxy said:
Hader and Grandal to the Rays for Wander Franco, Brent Honeywell, Shane Baz and Matt Liberatore. Or McKay, Sanchez, Brujan, Honeywell and Baz.


As badly as I want to win this year, I’ll take the former, and give them Hader and Grandal.

Can’t turn down the best prospect in baseball, plus 3 top pitchers even if one is hurt again and won’t pitch till sometime next year.

Then I might trade Baz Ashby Ray + for Trevor Bauer.

And

Trade Dubon + for Will Smith

And

Trade for another quality rental reliever

Then win this year anyhow, keeping Franco Liberatore Honeywell.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#70

Posted: June 27, 2019, 2:56 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Oxy said:
Hader and Grandal to the Rays for Wander Franco, Brent Honeywell, Shane Baz and Matt Liberatore. Or McKay, Sanchez, Brujan, Honeywell and Baz.


As badly as I want to win this year, I’ll take the former, and give them Hader and Grandal.

Can’t turn down the best prospect in baseball, plus 3 top pitchers even if one is hurt again and won’t pitch till sometime next year.

Then I might trade Baz Ashby Ray + for Trevor Bauer.

And

Trade Dubon + for Will Smith

And

Trade for another quality rental reliever

Then win this year anyhow, keeping Franco Liberatore Honeywell.



Yes! Trading Hader does not mean we need to be in tear-it-down and rebuild mode. It just means we could sell as high as possible in order to get a massive haul and set ourselves up for the future at the same time. The Rays are going to need to make some trades this year. They are going to have a serious roster crunch in the next year+


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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#71

Posted: June 27, 2019, 3:44 PM Post
Posts: 393
Oxy said:
Hader and Grandal to the Rays for Wander Franco, Brent Honeywell, Shane Baz and Matt Liberatore. Or McKay, Sanchez, Brujan, Honeywell and Baz.


You want to give up on the entire season for 4 guys who aren't even out of A ball? Losing Hader leaves CC with zero closing options and losing Grandal severly limits an already shakey offense. Honeywell isn't even going to start pitching again until sometime next year! I doubt the Rays clean out the farm for a reliever and a rental anyways.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#72

Posted: June 27, 2019, 4:46 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Oxy said:
Hader and Grandal to the Rays for Wander Franco, Brent Honeywell, Shane Baz and Matt Liberatore. Or McKay, Sanchez, Brujan, Honeywell and Baz.


You want to give up on the entire season for 4 guys who aren't even out of A ball? Losing Hader leaves CC with zero closing options and losing Grandal severly limits an already shakey offense. Honeywell isn't even going to start pitching again until sometime next year! I doubt the Rays clean out the farm for a reliever and a rental anyways.


I don't WANT to, no, but if the next 3 weeks prove that a WS isn't likely to happen this year, I can't see how it's going to happen next year either. Extend Yelich, trade Hader and build around Yelich, Hiura, Franco?, Turang? and a wealth of young pitchers with TOR potential.

If I thought we could extend Moose and/or Grandal AND sign someone like Gerrit Cole next year then obviously I'd want to keep Hader. I just don't see that happening--and if it DOES happen and it doesn't work out we'll be stuck with a ton of bad untrade-able veteran contracts and a middling farm system. That is my biggest worry.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#73

Posted: June 27, 2019, 8:18 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Oxy said:
Hader and Grandal to the Rays for Wander Franco, Brent Honeywell, Shane Baz and Matt Liberatore. Or McKay, Sanchez, Brujan, Honeywell and Baz.


You want to give up on the entire season for 4 guys who aren't even out of A ball? Losing Hader leaves CC with zero closing options and losing Grandal severly limits an already shakey offense. Honeywell isn't even going to start pitching again until sometime next year! I doubt the Rays clean out the farm for a reliever and a rental anyways.


I would because the value we receive far exceeds what we're giving up. Not that I think the Rays would entertain that deal for even a second.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#74

Posted: June 28, 2019, 5:18 AM Post
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The more I think about it, with the team playing at an 86 win pace even with how lousy the last two weeks have been; I imagine they’ll stand pat at the deadline at the very least; or make a couple of second tier moves to add a reliever or two, bench bat, etc.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#75

Posted: June 28, 2019, 9:18 AM Post
Posts: 1736
Location: Madison, WI
trwi7 said:
wntrtxn21 said:
Oxy said:
Hader and Grandal to the Rays for Wander Franco, Brent Honeywell, Shane Baz and Matt Liberatore. Or McKay, Sanchez, Brujan, Honeywell and Baz.


You want to give up on the entire season for 4 guys who aren't even out of A ball? Losing Hader leaves CC with zero closing options and losing Grandal severly limits an already shakey offense. Honeywell isn't even going to start pitching again until sometime next year! I doubt the Rays clean out the farm for a reliever and a rental anyways.


I would because the value we receive far exceeds what we're giving up. Not that I think the Rays would entertain that deal for even a second.


Hader/Grandal for Franco/Honeywell/Baz/Liberatore is off-the-rails crazy.

When the Marlins were shopping Yelich, I estimated his surplus value at 150 million but suggested that the offers would very likely max out at 120 million dollars because trades involving prospect capital higher than that just don't get made. I had the Brinson/Harrison/Diaz/Yamamoto package valued at 110 million, which is still a very significant and huge return.

I'd value the Franco/Honeywell/Baz/Liberatore package at 177.7 million in prospect surplus value. This would be a the starting point, and probably put a team 80+% of the way there, if the Angels were looking to deal Mike Trout. To think that a team would give up this type of package for a reliever and a rental catcher....no, no, no, no, no.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#76

Posted: June 28, 2019, 9:44 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Add Shaw to the sell list.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#77

Posted: June 28, 2019, 9:58 AM Post
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JosephC said:

Hader/Grandal for Franco/Honeywell/Baz/Liberatore is off-the-rails crazy.

When the Marlins were shopping Yelich, I estimated his surplus value at 150 million but suggested that the offers would very likely max out at 120 million dollars because trades involving prospect capital higher than that just don't get made. I had the Brinson/Harrison/Diaz/Yamamoto package valued at 110 million, which is still a very significant and huge return.

I'd value the Franco/Honeywell/Baz/Liberatore package at 177.7 million in prospect surplus value. This would be a the starting point, and probably put a team 80+% of the way there, if the Angels were looking to deal Mike Trout. To think that a team would give up this type of package for a reliever and a rental catcher....no, no, no, no, no.


LOL. It's not just about the estimated value. It's about timing and risk as well The Rays are pretty well stacked except for at C, and Grandal is among the elite C in the league--hole plugged. Hader is the most dominant relief force this league has seen in years. For a team with WS aspirations that kind of dominance has more value than just the numbers would suggest. Both Hader and Grandal are about as sure things as you can get at the two positions the Rays need most to win a WS (have they ever done that before?).

Meanwhile, The Rays are already a super young team with an absolutely loaded farm system. As a previous poster said, they'd be giving up 3 guys who haven't even even played AA ball and a guy who will be coming back from injury next year after 2 years of not pitching. There is a very real possibility the Brewers would get 0 return from any of the 4 guys for 2 sure thing MLB guys who would significantly upgrade their chances at a WS title. And they'd have Hader for 4 more years! The RISK in this trade would be all on the Brewers side, and the TIMING could not be any better for the Rays to do something like this (although it is not their normal MO). If I'm a that mythical Rays fan out there I think I'd do this in a heartbeat rather than preserve my farm system ranking for another year+. It's not off the rails crazy from either side, anyway.


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Offline  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#78

Posted: June 28, 2019, 3:32 PM Post
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The deal is incredibly lopsided for the Brewers. You're taking like four of the top 8 prospects in one of, if not the best farm system in the game and the main piece is at worst the second best prospect in baseball at this point. Using that website that was just posted to show how lopsided that deal is for the Brewers.

Image

I think I'll take the risk that one of those four players works out and becomes a star that we have dirt cheap for three years and control of for six.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#79

Posted: June 28, 2019, 6:16 PM Post
Posts: 1390
trwi7 said:
wntrtxn21 said:
Oxy said:
Hader and Grandal to the Rays for Wander Franco, Brent Honeywell, Shane Baz and Matt Liberatore. Or McKay, Sanchez, Brujan, Honeywell and Baz.


You want to give up on the entire season for 4 guys who aren't even out of A ball? Losing Hader leaves CC with zero closing options and losing Grandal severly limits an already shakey offense. Honeywell isn't even going to start pitching again until sometime next year! I doubt the Rays clean out the farm for a reliever and a rental anyways.


I would because the value we receive far exceeds what we're giving up. Not that I think the Rays would entertain that deal for even a second.



No, when do any of the realistic trades work out with the Rays? They ask for the moon and occasionally get it(Archer trade).

That'd probably be the worst organization to deal with.

I make that deal and even throw in something else as well. I don't believe we should sell now, but if the opportunity ever comes up to add elite level propsects for guys who aren't going to be here long term, I'd do that in any year other than the ones we're clearly one of the most talented teams in the league..and that's not this year. The best we can hope this year is that we hang around, and get hot like we did last year.

I enjoy the later just fine, but to actually win a WS, to beat what the Astros are throwing out there or the Yankees and Sox are usually throwing out, we're going to need better starting pitching.


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Online  Re: Sell Mode: If Necessary
#80

Posted: June 28, 2019, 6:19 PM Post
Posts: 1390
Brew4U said:
Add Shaw to the sell list.


For what? Who's "buying" Shaw now? You're taking a guy who's been a stud, but through 81 games has been beyond awful. This is the absolute definition of selling low.


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