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Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition

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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#21

Posted: July 01, 2019, 8:59 AM Post
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Location: Chicago
Zack Greinke is an interesting idea. Say what you want about his age, but he's quietly approached a borderline Hall of Fame career.

More importantly, as his velocity on his fastball has diminished to the low 90s, he has reinvented himself as a 'pitcher' so there should be less concern of diminished performance as he continues to age. In fact, Greinke actually walks fewer batters per/9 and gives up fewer hits/9 than he did when pitching for Milwaukee 7-8 years ago. He's also the picture of durability as a pitcher. There have been only two years where he has made less than 32 starts or thrown fewer than 200 innings since he left Milwaukee.

While Greinke does not have trade protection involving Milwaukee; cutting against any trade is the fact Greinke is the only significant long-term contract on the books for the Diamondbacks.

However, the money isn't as difficult as it seams. First, there is an assignment bonus of 2 million dollars if he is traded. Greinke is still owed half his 31.5 million salary this year, and 32 million in 2020 and 2021. 10.5 million is deferred from 2019 and 11 million in both 2020 and 2021. The deferred payments begin in 2022 through 2026. There was also a signing bonus of 18 million dollars that is paid in annual installments of 3 million each year 2016-2021

If the Diamondbacks payed the deferred salary after a trade it would mean Greinke's remaining salary this year is 12.5 million (10.5 +2 assignment bonus), 24 million in 2020 and 2021 (32 base +3 bonus - 11 deferred). There is no question the Brewers could afford Greinke this year and on an ongoing basis since their spending over 24 million dollars on Moose and Grandal this year and neither will likely return next year.

The more pressing questions are: will the D'Backs be sellers (They have under performed their Pythagorean), and if they're kicking in 32.5 million dollars what sort of prospect package will they demand in return.


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#22

Posted: July 01, 2019, 1:48 PM Post
Posts: 512
Jopal78! said:
Zack Greinke is an interesting idea. Say what you want about his age, but he's quietly approached a borderline Hall of Fame career.

More importantly, as his velocity on his fastball has diminished to the low 90s, he has reinvented himself as a 'pitcher' so there should be less concern of diminished performance as he continues to age. In fact, Greinke actually walks fewer batters per/9 and gives up fewer hits/9 than he did when pitching for Milwaukee 7-8 years ago. He's also the picture of durability as a pitcher. There have been only two years where he has made less than 32 starts or thrown fewer than 200 innings since he left Milwaukee.

While Greinke does not have trade protection involving Milwaukee; cutting against any trade is the fact Greinke is the only significant long-term contract on the books for the Diamondbacks.

However, the money isn't as difficult as it seams. First, there is an assignment bonus of 2 million dollars if he is traded. Greinke is still owed half his 31.5 million salary this year, and 32 million in 2020 and 2021. 10.5 million is deferred from 2019 and 11 million in both 2020 and 2021. The deferred payments begin in 2022 through 2026. There was also a signing bonus of 18 million dollars that is paid in annual installments of 3 million each year 2016-2021

If the Diamondbacks payed the deferred salary after a trade it would mean Greinke's remaining salary this year is 12.5 million (10.5 +2 assignment bonus), 24 million in 2020 and 2021 (32 base +3 bonus - 11 deferred). There is no question the Brewers could afford Greinke this year and on an ongoing basis since their spending over 24 million dollars on Moose and Grandal this year and neither will likely return next year.

The more pressing questions are: will the D'Backs be sellers (They have under performed their Pythagorean), and if they're kicking in 32.5 million dollars what sort of prospect package will they demand in return.


He was discussed a bit in the offseason, some of us thought if you could get the price down to 60-70 million for 3 years it was fair and worth it. Others question the fastball decline and how well he would age. I think he has answered that second question, at this point I would gladly offer the Dubon/Ray type package mentioned in the Boyd thread provided they kick in some money. But they wanted to trade him to get out from under that contract so they may be looking for a big market team who won't mind spending so much. Plus if we balked at spending on Keuchel/Kimbrell it's hard to see them taking on even half that salary.


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#23

Posted: July 01, 2019, 2:51 PM Post
Posts: 332
What about pitchers who won't break the bank? Stroman, Boyd and Mad Bum are going to be highly sought after. Zach Wheeler is also going to cost Peralta or Burnes.

#1. Andrew Cashner- Innings eater. Has been reliable. He may be motivated to be out of the AL East and contending.
#2. Sonny Gray- Major risk/reward. Might cost a lot since it is inner divisional.
#3. Tanner Roark- He has been solid. Another risk/reward.
#4. Homer Bailey- Would be reasonable. He is more consistent than what we currently have beside Woodruff. He's always had good stuff.
#5. Mike Leake- Package with Roenis Elias?


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#24

Posted: July 01, 2019, 4:03 PM Post
Posts: 457
BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
What about pitchers who won't break the bank? Stroman, Boyd and Mad Bum are going to be highly sought after. Zach Wheeler is also going to cost Peralta or Burnes.

#1. Andrew Cashner- Innings eater. Has been reliable. He may be motivated to be out of the AL East and contending.
#2. Sonny Gray- Major risk/reward. Might cost a lot since it is inner divisional.
#3. Tanner Roark- He has been solid. Another risk/reward.
#4. Homer Bailey- Would be reasonable. He is more consistent than what we currently have beside Woodruff. He's always had good stuff.
#5. Mike Leake- Package with Roenis Elias?


I don't see Stearns being interested in Cashner unless he came extremely cheap. Terrible in '15, '16, rebounded in 2017 and then really bad again last year. He's too inconsistent to give up anything significant for.
I doubt the Reds trade within the division, especially since they are close to contending. Gray would be nice. He's not the #1 or #2 they need, but he'd help for sure. Depends on the asking price.
Homer Bailey has been awful for a long time. This year he is just bad. 4.87 ERA - 3.8 BBs per 9 - a hit per IP. He'd be a very cheap rental because the Dodgers are paying almost his entire contract, but is he any better than what they already have?
I wouldn't want Leake for anything even if they included Elias. Leake far more hits than IPs. 5.13 FIP, 4.63 ERA, 23 dingers allowed already.
Roark would be another rental and would help. I guess it depends on what the price was.


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#25

Posted: July 02, 2019, 12:47 PM Post
Posts: 512
Jopal78! said:

The more pressing questions are: will the D'Backs be sellers (They have under performed their Pythagorean), and if they're kicking in 32.5 million dollars what sort of prospect package will they demand in return.


To try and answer this I checked on the trade value site and if the DBacks kicked in the 32.5 million you proposed and if the Brewers offered Ray/Dubon the values would be:

Greinke + 32.5 million = 20
Ray/Dubon = 16.8

So it's in the neighborhood.I still question whether the Brewers would want to pay what is left on the contract but Greinke's negative value and continued high level pitching makes him an interesting target.


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#26

Posted: July 02, 2019, 12:50 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Greinke is the type of move that would either be awesome because he would defy just about all the rules with older pitchers that have thrown a lot of innings or a move that would be the beginning of the end of this “window”.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#27

Posted: July 02, 2019, 3:24 PM Post
Posts: 1841
BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
What about pitchers who won't break the bank? Stroman, Boyd and Mad Bum are going to be highly sought after. Zach Wheeler is also going to cost Peralta or Burnes.

#1. Andrew Cashner- Innings eater. Has been reliable. He may be motivated to be out of the AL East and contending.
#2. Sonny Gray- Major risk/reward. Might cost a lot since it is inner divisional.
#3. Tanner Roark- He has been solid. Another risk/reward.
#4. Homer Bailey- Would be reasonable. He is more consistent than what we currently have beside Woodruff. He's always had good stuff.
#5. Mike Leake- Package with Roenis Elias?


I'm sorry, but none of these guys are significantly better than what the crew already has in the rotation. There is ZERO point in trading any prospects or anything of value for a starter unless it's a MAJOR upgrade. If you're a legit contender, you don't let the fear of what prospects "might" become, scare you out of making a MAJOR deal. That's what contenders do. Either go big, or go home DS.

For the record, I have absolutely ZERO issues including Peralta in a deal(for a controllable arm), I also have zero issues including Orlando Arcia in a deal..Including those two in a deal would be a way to acquire a big piece, without having to tap into your farm system and without it hurting the current team significantly.


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#28

Posted: July 07, 2019, 7:55 PM Post
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The idea of acquiring Andrew Cashner is starting to grow on me.


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#29

Posted: July 08, 2019, 3:12 AM Post
Posts: 457
Eye Black said:
The idea of acquiring Andrew Cashner is starting to grow on me.


Shave off that growth.


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#30

Posted: July 08, 2019, 8:04 AM Post
Posts: 1742
Location: Madison, WI
I haven't been much of a Cashner fan over the years, but to dismiss him would be a mistake IMO. He's totally redone his repertoire this season. In 2017 and 2018 his pitch breakdown was approximately 35% sinker, 25% fastball, 15% change-up, 10% cutter, 10% curveball and 5% slider. So far this year it's been 45% fastball, 25% change-up, 15% curveball, 10% slider and 5% sinker. So he's basically shelved the sinker and cutter, and is just going more 4-seam fastball and primarily using 3 off-speed pitchers. The fastball has been a slight negative pitch but the change-up has been very effective pitch. It appears he has gotten a bit lucky with a .256 BABIP. His ground ball % of 49.2 is 16th best out of 78 qualifying pitchers. I'm not a big fan of Cashner, but he could be one of the more attractive candidates when factoring in the price-tag.


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Online  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#31

Posted: July 25, 2019, 7:31 AM Post
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OK, obviously with Woodruff and Chacin nursing injuries that are going to keep them out for 4-6 weeks, the Brewers need to grab at least one starter. There are several solid trade candidates out there.

Tier 1 (controllable upper-level arms):
1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Marcus Stroman
3. Trevor Bauer
4. Robbie Ray
5. Matthew Boyd

Tier 2 (innings-eating rentals):
6. Madison Bumgarner
7. Zach Wheeler
8. Jason Vargas
9. Ivan Nova
10. Tanner Roark
11. Homer Bailey


Tier 3 (innings-eating controllable starters):
12. Mike Minor
13. Caleb Smith
14. Trevor Richards
15. Lance Lynn
16. Dylan Bundy
17. Alex Wood
18. Danny Duffy
19. Mike Leake
20. Jordan Lyles

Free Agent options:
21. Matt Harvey
22. Chris Tillman
23. James Shields

Minors possibilities:
24. Shelby Miller
25. Trey Supak
26. Aaron Wilkerson
27. Burch Smith (I know he's on the MLB roster right now)
28. Thomas Jankins
29. Bubba Derby
30. Zach Brown

I kinda would like one from Tier 2 and one from Tier 3. Of course, what will probably happen is Houser will be moved to the rotation, and they'll either move Burch Smith there as well, or purchase Shelby Miller's contract.


Last edited by Joey Meyer Bombs on July 25, 2019, 8:23 PM, edited 3 times in total.

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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#32

Posted: July 25, 2019, 7:53 AM Post
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I like to get a stud ace but don't think that can be done
I would not mind Lynn and Minor but can't see DS trading for 2 starters


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#33

Posted: July 25, 2019, 8:10 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
OK, obviously with Woodruff and Chacin nursing injuries that are going to keep them out for 4-6 weeks, the Brewers need to grab at least one starter. There are several solid trade candidates out there.

Tier 1 (controllable upper-level arms):
1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Marcus Stroman
3. Trevor Bauer
4. Robbie Ray
5. Matthew Boyd

Tier 2 (innings-eating rentals):
6. Madison Bumgarner
7. Zach Wheeler
8. Jason Vargas
9. Lance Lynn
10. Ivan Nova

Tier 3 (innings-eating controllable starters):
11. Mike Minor
12. Caleb Smith
13. Tanner Roark
14. Trevor Richards
15. Alex Wood
16. Mike Leake
17. Jordan Lyles

Free Agent options:
18. Matt Harvey
19. Chris Tillman
20. James Shields

Minors possibilities:
21. Shelby Miller
22. Trey Supak
23. Aaron Wilkerson
24. Burch Smith (I know he's on the MLB roster right now)
25. Thomas Jankins
26. Bubba Derby
27. Zach Brown

I kinda would like one from Tier 2 and one from Tier 3. Of course, what will probably happen is Houser will be moved to the rotation, and they'll either move Burch Smith there as well, or purchase Shelby Miller's contract.


Just out of curiosity, how did you decide your tiers? I like several of the guys in tier 3 more than the ones in tier 2, so I’m wondering if you set up the tiers based on expected cost to acquire, or quality of arms, or how much you would desire that particular player?

What is best in life? To crush the Cardinals, Cubs, and Manny Machado, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their fanboys.


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Online  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#34

Posted: July 25, 2019, 8:12 AM Post
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Posts: 9272
Harvey'sWBs said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
OK, obviously with Woodruff and Chacin nursing injuries that are going to keep them out for 4-6 weeks, the Brewers need to grab at least one starter. There are several solid trade candidates out there.

Tier 1 (controllable upper-level arms):
1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Marcus Stroman
3. Trevor Bauer
4. Robbie Ray
5. Matthew Boyd

Tier 2 (innings-eating rentals):
6. Madison Bumgarner
7. Zach Wheeler
8. Jason Vargas
9. Lance Lynn
10. Ivan Nova

Tier 3 (innings-eating controllable starters):
11. Mike Minor
12. Caleb Smith
13. Tanner Roark
14. Trevor Richards
15. Alex Wood
16. Mike Leake
17. Jordan Lyles

Free Agent options:
18. Matt Harvey
19. Chris Tillman
20. James Shields

Minors possibilities:
21. Shelby Miller
22. Trey Supak
23. Aaron Wilkerson
24. Burch Smith (I know he's on the MLB roster right now)
25. Thomas Jankins
26. Bubba Derby
27. Zach Brown

I kinda would like one from Tier 2 and one from Tier 3. Of course, what will probably happen is Houser will be moved to the rotation, and they'll either move Burch Smith there as well, or purchase Shelby Miller's contract.


Just out of curiosity, how did you decide your tiers? I like several of the guys in tier 3 more than the ones in tier 2, so I’m wondering if you set up the tiers based on expected cost to acquire, or quality of arms, or how much you would desire that particular player?


Basically cost/benefit analysis for 2019. I personally like several of the Tier 3 guys more than Tier 2 as well (Minor, Smith and Richards), but the prospect cost on those guys I imagine will be significantly higher. Also Roark is a rental, so I adjusted my list, while adding Danny Duffy, who I neglected to throw in. I suppose Homer Bailey could be added to the rental pile as well.


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#35

Posted: July 25, 2019, 8:29 AM Post
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I like the list JMB, but wouldn't Lance Lynn belong in Tier 3 since he is under contract through 2021? Maybe I misunderstood that part.

It is maybe a little farfetched that he'll get traded, but I might include Jon Gray in tier 1. Again, it's unlikely he'll be moved this deadline, but I could see the Rockies trading him for MLB ready prospects this winter when he'll have just 2 years remaining. I would put him as a potential TOR breakout candidate if he goes to the right organization. Sort of like the ascension of Gerrit Cole with the Astros.

Solely because he has had some impressive peripherals at Double-A this year and is now 24 years old I have started to wonder if Alec Bettinger could be a (very) long shot dark horse to get a shot at some point?

Lastly, I hope Brent Suter gets a chance to pitch some meaningful innings this season, but I guess it would be more realistic to expect him to come out of the bullpen than to be a starter.


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#36

Posted: July 25, 2019, 8:30 AM Post
Posts: 12102
Lynn isn't a rental. He's signed for 2 more years. Texas is going to ask a lot.


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#37

Posted: July 25, 2019, 8:34 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Would love to get Gray. He’d be a pitcher that would make sense on giving up quality prospects. Only thing that scares me are his walks.


Last edited by Brew4U on July 25, 2019, 8:35 AM, edited 1 time in total.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#38

Posted: July 25, 2019, 8:34 AM Post
Posts: 12102
Nova's overall numbers are bad but he's shown some life lately and he's 2-0 vs. the the Cubs. If they deal for 2 starters, he would make a nice cheap option for the second.


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Online  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#39

Posted: July 25, 2019, 8:39 AM Post
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Posts: 9272
Eye Black said:
I like the list JMB, but wouldn't Lance Lynn belong in Tier 3 since he is under contract through 2021? Maybe I misunderstood that part.

It is maybe a little farfetched that he'll get traded, but I might include Jon Gray in tier 1. Again, it's unlikely he'll be moved this deadline, but I could see the Rockies trading him for MLB ready prospects this winter when he'll have just 2 years remaining. I would put him as a potential TOR breakout candidate if he goes to the right organization. Sort of like the ascension of Gerrit Cole with the Astros.

Solely because he has had some impressive peripherals at Double-A this year and is now 24 years old I have started to wonder if Alec Bettinger could be a (very) long shot dark horse to get a shot at some point?

Lastly, I hope Brent Suter gets a chance to pitch some meaningful innings this season, but I guess it would more realistic to expect him to come out of the bullpen than to be a starter.


You're right ... i forgot that his deal with the Rangers was 3 years. I assumed it was a 1-year deal, but I got his deals with the Rangers this past spring and with the Twins last year confused.

Good point on Gray as well. That would be one heck of a talented arm to grab. I think Freeland could be classified as that as well, but I doubt the Rockies sell him at such a low point.


Last edited by Joey Meyer Bombs on July 25, 2019, 8:42 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition
#40

Posted: July 25, 2019, 8:41 AM Post
Posts: 5116
Location: New Berlin, WI
Eye Black said:
I like the list JMB, but wouldn't Lance Lynn belong in Tier 3 since he is under contract through 2021? Maybe I misunderstood that part.

It is maybe a little farfetched that he'll get traded, but I might include Jon Gray in tier 1. Again, it's unlikely he'll be moved this deadline, but I could see the Rockies trading him for MLB ready prospects this winter when he'll have just 2 years remaining. I would put him as a potential TOR breakout candidate if he goes to the right organization. Sort of like the ascension of Gerrit Cole with the Astros.

Solely because he has had some impressive peripherals at Double-A this year and is now 24 years old I have started to wonder if Alec Bettinger could be a (very) long shot dark horse to get a shot at some point?

Lastly, I hope Brent Suter gets a chance to pitch some meaningful innings this season, but I guess it would more realistic to expect him to come out of the bullpen than to be a starter.


I've been wondering about the Rockies and selling. I'm sure Arenado would be super thrilled to sign a big extension and have the team sell hard during the last of his prime years.


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