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Baseball Trade Values website

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Online    Baseball Trade Values website
#1

Posted: June 28, 2019, 10:24 AM Post
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For anyone fascinated by player trade values or creating hypothetical trade offers there is now the perfect website:

BaseballTradeValues.com

Let me start by saying... THIS. IS. AWESOME. It values all of the players in the majors as well as top and mid-tier prospects. You can create whatever simulated trades you would like and see where they fall in terms of fair value.

The founder of the site, John Bitzer, appeared on the Effectively Wild Podcast yesterday.

The site has an infinite combination of trades you can propose. If you create an account you can post your trade proposals to their site. I don’t think it’s perfect in terms of the values given to prospects, but it is much closer to accurate than anything I have come across before. It just recently launched, and I have a feeling it will continue to get more and more accurate with time.

Here is a screenshot of proposals from the site (Note: The below proposals aren’t all great, but you get the idea)...

Image


If you listen to the podcast linked above (highly recommended) John explains that it limits you from trading for a superstar without offering at least one player that is around 40%+ of the percentage of that star back in trade (so you can just piece together a dozen guys without much value to make a trade happen). It also has some players with negative trade value (i.e. Braun), and you can exchange money in deals to help cover salaries and make them more realistic.

Another thing that was interesting from the podcast is he explained how the Santana/Gamel trade forced him to tweak his model. He mentioned that it initially looked like a one-sided trade for the Mariners, but that after the trade Stearns admitted Santana being out of options hurt his value. John went back and adjusted his model by devaluing all players that couldn’t be optioned to reflect the difference.

I have been down a rabbit hole using the site since I learned about it yesterday, hope you enjoy it as well! If you create an interesting proposal via the site feel free to share it in this thread. General feedback on the site is welcome also. Again, I don’t think the values are perfect, but most seem in the right ballpark and I am sure the site will continue to improve over time as it is adjusted with future player valuation and surplus value indicators such as real trades and free agent signings.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#2

Posted: June 28, 2019, 10:54 AM Post
Posts: 4570
Location: New Berlin, WI
This thing doesn't factor in the market, I also think one thing people tend not to factor in to trades is premium talent. Is a 5 WAR player only twice as valuable as a 2.5 WAR player? No, he's way way more than that. All that said, this is very well done and has been fun to putz with.

My most recent trade was Will Smith and Sam Dyson for Zack Brown, Peyton Henry, and Troy Stokes. Came out to 8.2 value vs 9.1 value...so we're giving up slightly more value than the Giants...but I think I'd make that trade. If it really ended up being lopsided in reality, they could send us a bit of cash.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#3

Posted: June 28, 2019, 2:21 PM Post
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Posts: 5357
Location: Phoenix, AZ
I did this:

Nationals get:
Burnes, Ray and Brown

Brewers get:
Strasburg

Value wise per that site is the Brewers giving up more but it is close.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#4

Posted: June 28, 2019, 2:56 PM Post
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Posts: 1099
Location: Baltimore, MD
Image

Done!


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#5

Posted: June 28, 2019, 4:36 PM Post
Posts: 4391
Mine:

Brewers get (27.5):
RHRP Greene
3B Paredes

Tigers get (26.3):
1B Aguilar
3B Erceg
C Nottingham
$2 million cash


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#6

Posted: June 28, 2019, 4:42 PM Post
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Posts: 1969
I generally highly dislike magic boxes that you throw names into and it spits out numbers back at you...gives me the heeby jeebies.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#7

Posted: June 28, 2019, 5:39 PM Post
Posts: 1058
Location: Ohio
Thanks for sharing..


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#8

Posted: June 28, 2019, 7:16 PM Post
Posts: 50
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
Here’s what I came up with for Stroman and Giles. I’m not sure I believe the Jays would do this (and as a huge Lutz supporter it would be tough for me) but I do think it could be somewhat close to what a deal might look like with a better third piece than Abreu included.

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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#9

Posted: June 29, 2019, 10:18 AM Post
Posts: 1646
Location: Madison, WI
I just love that this simulator has Sam Dyson as a negative value player. Hopefully the Giants and the entire league outside of the Brewers feel the same way. Would love to see Milwaukee land him for one long-shot fringe prospect.


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Online  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#10

Posted: June 29, 2019, 12:35 PM Post
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The site founder said they are working on updating some of values before the trade deadline, and I noticed some players values did change just yesterday.

One trade value scenario I thought seemed very accurate was Giants LHRP Will Smith (9.3) for Mauricio Dubon (5.8) and Mario Feliciano (3.5). Both sides came out to 9.30 in total value. I thought that was a good indication of what a Will Smith trade might look like especially considering he will be in high demand this deadline. The main return piece being a good, but non-100 type prospect and the second piece being a pre-breakout prospect with high upside. That package would sting a lot, and I don’t think I would actually do it from the Brewers standpoint, but it seems like fair value. One variation that may be easier to stomach from the Brewers point of view would be swapping Feliciano with the similarly valued Lucas Erceg.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#11

Posted: June 29, 2019, 12:54 PM Post
Posts: 1646
Location: Madison, WI
Just for kicks, I went through and ranked the Brewer prospects according to their values.

1. Keston Hiura = 81.8
2. Tristen Lutz = 17.4
3. Brice Turang = 16.6
4. Corey Ray = 11
5. Mauricio Dubon = 5.8
6. Joe Gray = 4.7
7. Payton Henry = 3.6
8. Lucas Erceg = 3.5
9. Mario Feliciano = 3.5
10. Zack Brown = 3.2
11. Jacob Nottingham = 3.0
12. Aaron Ashby = 2.6
13. Carlos Rodriguez = 2.5
14. Pablo Abreu = 2.3
15. Troy Stokes Jr. = 2.3
16. Trent Grisham = 2.2
17. Korry Howell = 2.1
18. Larry Ernesto = 2.1
19. Eduardo Garcia = 2.1
20. Eduarqui Fernandez = 2.0
21. Tyrone Taylor = 1.8
22. Micah Bello = 1.7
23. Trey Supak = 1.6
24. Antonio Pinero = 1.4
25. Je'Von Ward = 1.4
26. Daniel Castillo = 1.3
27. Yeison Coca = 1.3
28. Clayton Andrews = 1.0
29. Adrian Houser = 1.0
30. Caden Lemons = 1.0


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Online  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#12

Posted: June 29, 2019, 4:57 PM Post
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Thanks for taking the time to put the list together JosephC. First impressions are that Lutz, Ray, and Gray might be a little overvalued. I also think Feliciano will be valued higher among other teams than what is currently listed.


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Online  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#13

Posted: June 29, 2019, 5:11 PM Post
Posts: 1978
Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.


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Online  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#14

Posted: June 29, 2019, 5:17 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.

Houser should probably be higher, but no team is giving up great value for a 26 year old right-hander that’s still unproven and until very recently had a likely ceiling of no better than a middle inning reliever.

The list is actually pretty good overall in terms of the way teams would value the players listed above.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#15

Posted: June 29, 2019, 10:55 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.


15th ace, amirite?

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#16

Posted: June 30, 2019, 12:03 AM Post
Posts: 1225
trwi7 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.


15th ace, amirite?



Plus...we're going to trade and sign another 3 or 4.

So we're going to have to be shuffling aces from the big to the minors next year!


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Online  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#17

Posted: June 30, 2019, 5:11 AM Post
Posts: 1978
trwi7 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.


15th ace, amirite?


That might be an exaggeration.

Time will tell.


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Online  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#18

Posted: June 30, 2019, 5:26 AM Post
Posts: 1978
OnTheBlack said:
trwi7 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.


15th ace, amirite?



Plus...we're going to trade and sign another 3 or 4.

So we're going to have to be shuffling aces from the big to the minors next year!


We have one budding Ace in Woodruff, another that should get there at some point moving forward in Burnes, another that could be if they let him start in Rasmussen, I’d stop there, so one ace, maybe 2 more down the road, but I’m not waiting, I’d like to trade for one and sign one, so Woodruff could be my #3 next year. And Houser my #4, who, would be an awfully strong 4, with his ridiculous stuff.


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Online  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#19

Posted: June 30, 2019, 5:33 AM Post
Posts: 1978
Eye Black said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.

Houser should probably be higher, but no team is giving up great value for a 26 year old right-hander that’s still unproven and until very recently had a likely ceiling of no better than a middle inning reliever.

The list is actually pretty good overall in terms of the way teams would value the players listed above.


Ok, I’ll take your word for it since I’m too lazy to really study it and you obviously have, But the brewer values leave a lot to be desired, imo.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#20

Posted: June 30, 2019, 6:31 AM Post
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Smichaelis9 said:
Here’s what I came up with for Stroman and Giles. I’m not sure I believe the Jays would do this (and as a huge Lutz supporter it would be tough for me) but I do think it could be somewhat close to what a deal might look like with a better third piece than Abreu included.


I do this trade tomorrow, FWIW.


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