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Baseball Trade Values website

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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#21

Posted: June 30, 2019, 6:49 AM Post
Posts: 18985
I'd do that in a second as well. I'd have to think the Jay's wouldn't, despite the valuations lining up.

Stroman and Giles would be a huge get and I'd be willing to include Turang in a deal to land those two.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#22

Posted: June 30, 2019, 7:19 AM Post
Posts: 86
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
adambr2 said:
I'd do that in a second as well. I'd have to think the Jay's wouldn't, despite the valuations lining up.

Stroman and Giles would be a huge get and I'd be willing to include Turang in a deal to land those two.

Yeah, I probably should’ve clarified the Lutz comment. I would pull the trigger on that immediately as well, it’d sting a bit for me to see Lutz go but it certainly wouldn’t deter me from making the trade. I would also be willing to include Turang if that’s what it took. Don’t think the fan base as a whole would be thrilled, but you have to give to get!


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#23

Posted: June 30, 2019, 10:01 AM Post
Posts: 1742
Location: Madison, WI
Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison.

1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8)
2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6)
3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11)
4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4)
5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2)
6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8)
7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6)
8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5)
9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7)
10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2)
11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6)
12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6)
13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7)
14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5)
15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0)
16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8)
17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3)
18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6)
Everyone else = 2.2

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.


Last edited by JosephC on June 30, 2019, 11:38 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#24

Posted: June 30, 2019, 10:15 AM Post
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JosephC said:
I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

Thanks for sharing your insights JC!

One note on the above valuing of the Brewers draft picks is the site has the following entry regarding the Comp A selection the Brewers traded away...


Breakdown of the Rangers’ return
Although this seems like a minor trade on the surface, we found it notable for two reasons:
First, Alex Claudio was a productive reliever who came with three years of control (albeit at escalating cost for all three arb years).
Second, since this was a cold, 1-1 trade, it signified an opportunity to place a value on all Competitive Round A draft picks. If Claudio’s value = Comp A draft pick value, then all Comp A draft picks should also have around the same value.

Based on our methodology, we ended up at $11.3M for Claudio, which squared with several other trades of similar draft picks. Thus:

Rangers get: Comp A pick: 11.3

Breakdown of the Brewers’ return
The Brewers were all in, after coming an inch away from the 2018 World Series, so trading a draft pick (who would in theory be a long way away from helping the MLB team) for immediate relief help (which they sorely needed) — and one at reasonable salary cost — was an easy decision.

Brewers get: Claudio: 11.3


So if they value the Comp A selection at 11.3, I would guess they would have Ethan Small valued somewhat closer to that number. I think it’s reasonable to think that recent draft picks would be valued a little higher by teams and most lose value over time as some of the prospect shine wears off. Regarding Claudio specifically, he is now valued at 5.2 on the website, so either they found they were too high on him initially or they adjusted for performance/cost/control.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#25

Posted: June 30, 2019, 11:33 AM Post
Posts: 1742
Location: Madison, WI
Two quick notes regarding my evaluation of Small's prospect surplus value.

I had previously evaluated Comp A picks at top ten organizational prospect level and valued the picks at around 11 million in surplus value. But someone on this board (can't remember who), suggested that was a bit high so I went through and looked at comp A picks from the last couple years and in weak systems those picks could wind up at #7/#8 on a team's rankings, but in strong systems those picks could be as low at #16. Average and median numbers were in the #11-#12 range so I reclassified those picks at being worth more around 7 million in surplus value. So normally, a guy at the end of round one should be slightly higher than 7 million in surplus value. But its really hard to make this evaluation because, not only are we talking about getting a player, we are also talking about the size of the draft pool money as well. I would actually think most teams probably have more value associated with the pick than just the player himself.

But then ranking has to play in the estimate as well. Brady Singer is a good example. He may have been the 18th pick in the draft, but it was obvious that he would be valued much higher than that even with an average MiLB start. Fast forward one season, and although he was the 18th pick in the draft, he currently sits at #45 on the MLB Pipeline top 100. That's with a 3.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.5 K/9...nothing wrong with those numbers but nothing eye-popping either. And I'm not anticipating a major drop when the top 100 list is updated, but time will tell on that. Small seemed to sit at #55-#60 on most of the draft ranking lists, and I don't necessarily think the consensus view of the league is that he has "top 30 draft value" just because the Brewers picked him at #28. I think Small fits more solidly in the "role-player prospect" tier of players and have slotted him as such. He hits the minors and tears it up and then up the list he'll go.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#26

Posted: July 02, 2019, 5:45 PM Post
Posts: 222
JosephC said:
Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison.

1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8)
2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6)
3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11)
4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4)
5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2)
6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8)
7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6)
8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5)
9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7)
10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2)
11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6)
12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6)
13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7)
14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5)
15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0)
16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8)
17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3)
18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6)
Everyone else = 2.2

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

You think Corey Ray is almost three times as valuable as Trent Grisham?


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#27

Posted: July 02, 2019, 9:14 PM Post
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Posts: 2222
RWeeksFan23 said:
JosephC said:
Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison.

1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8)
2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6)
3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11)
4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4)
5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2)
6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8)
7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6)
8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5)
9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7)
10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2)
11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6)
12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6)
13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7)
14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5)
15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0)
16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8)
17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3)
18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6)
Everyone else = 2.2

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

You think Corey Ray is almost three times as valuable as Trent Grisham?



It's amazing how fast the "value" of a prospect can change.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#28

Posted: July 03, 2019, 6:50 AM Post
Posts: 1742
Location: Madison, WI
RWeeksFan23 said:
JosephC said:
Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison.

1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8)
2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6)
3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11)
4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4)
5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2)
6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8)
7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6)
8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5)
9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7)
10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2)
11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6)
12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6)
13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7)
14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5)
15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0)
16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8)
17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3)
18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6)
Everyone else = 2.2

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

You think Corey Ray is almost three times as valuable as Trent Grisham?


The surplus values I assign are based on various top prospect lists. Generally I won't elevated players above "role-player prospect" status until they establish themselves as "top 10 organizational type prospects"....which in the Brewer's case would probably be more along the lines of a top 8 prospect since they have a pretty weak system. At the time the prospect lists are updated, and if Grisham moves up as expected, then his surplus value will be adjusted up.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#29

Posted: July 03, 2019, 7:55 AM Post
Posts: 3060
JosephC said:
RWeeksFan23 said:
JosephC said:
Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison.

1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8)
2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6)
3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11)
4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4)
5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2)
6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8)
7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6)
8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5)
9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7)
10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2)
11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6)
12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6)
13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7)
14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5)
15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0)
16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8)
17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3)
18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6)
Everyone else = 2.2

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

You think Corey Ray is almost three times as valuable as Trent Grisham?


The surplus values I assign are based on various top prospect lists. Generally I won't elevated players above "role-player prospect" status until they establish themselves as "top 10 organizational type prospects"....which in the Brewer's case would probably be more along the lines of a top 8 prospect since they have a pretty weak system. At the time the prospect lists are updated, and if Grisham moves up as expected, then his surplus value will be adjusted up.


The problem with this site is it’s not close to being accurate, how could it be, without constant updates. The brewer list is a good example. But ultimately the only assessment site that matters is the front office.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#30

Posted: July 03, 2019, 8:33 AM Post
Posts: 1742
Location: Madison, WI
brewerfan surplus value estimates:

Drew Rasmussen on April 11, 2019 = 3 million
Drew Rasmussen on May 4, 2019 = 100 million
Drew Rasmussen on July 3, 2109 = 3 million

Can't deny that constant updates would be much more accurate!


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#31

Posted: July 03, 2019, 8:48 AM Post
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Posts: 9272
JosephC said:
brewerfan surplus value estimates:

Drew Rasmussen on April 11, 2019 = 3 million
Drew Rasmussen on May 4, 2019 = 100 million
Drew Rasmussen on July 3, 2109 = 3 million

Can't deny that constant updates would be much more accurate!


I just spit coffee all over my keyboard ... so thanks for that [laughing]


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#32

Posted: July 03, 2019, 9:35 AM Post
Posts: 3060
JosephC said:
brewerfan surplus value estimates:

Drew Rasmussen on April 11, 2019 = 3 million
Drew Rasmussen on May 4, 2019 = 100 million
Drew Rasmussen on July 3, 2109 = 3 million

Can't deny that constant updates would be much more accurate!


How bout making changes only when warranted, based upon real time monitoring of all the players. Another words, working a little harder at that site to be more accurate.

Serious question > how do you think a front office would value Rasmussen right now?

Grisham right now?


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#33

Posted: July 03, 2019, 9:47 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5550
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Brew crew 92 said:
JosephC said:
brewerfan surplus value estimates:

Drew Rasmussen on April 11, 2019 = 3 million
Drew Rasmussen on May 4, 2019 = 100 million
Drew Rasmussen on July 3, 2109 = 3 million

Can't deny that constant updates would be much more accurate!


How bout making changes only when warranted, based upon real time monitoring of all the players. Another words, working a little harder at that site to be more accurate.

Serious question > how do you think a front office would value Rasmussen right now?

Grisham right now?


That is near impossible to keep updated.

I don't believe a teams valuation of either player has changed all that much. Fans tend to over value and under value players based on recent success or failure.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#34

Posted: July 03, 2019, 9:54 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 9272
nate82 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
JosephC said:
brewerfan surplus value estimates:

Drew Rasmussen on April 11, 2019 = 3 million
Drew Rasmussen on May 4, 2019 = 100 million
Drew Rasmussen on July 3, 2109 = 3 million

Can't deny that constant updates would be much more accurate!


How bout making changes only when warranted, based upon real time monitoring of all the players. Another words, working a little harder at that site to be more accurate.

Serious question > how do you think a front office would value Rasmussen right now?

Grisham right now?


That is near impossible to keep updated.

I don't believe a teams valuation of either player has changed all that much. Fans tend to over value and under value players based on recent success or failure.


I agree, especially for those players who are already known as high-end prospects. A down month or even down season isn't going to hugely effect their trade value. Of course, it does change the optics of the trade in the eyes of fans, but I doubt that makes little to any difference. A team dealing for Ray is going to look at his upside, while a team looking at Grisham is likely going to temper expectations. Every team is going to want a package of prospects that are currently playing well, but prospects currently scuffling don't automatically lose their prospect value.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#35

Posted: July 03, 2019, 10:08 AM Post
Posts: 3060
Scouts that have been watching Grisham since spring training are going to grade him way way way higher than prospect lists or especially this site. Same with Rasmussen,imo.

Looking over the brewer list, your composite valuations are obviously more accurate than the sites, and if they are that far off on just about every brewer valuation, then there gonna be off on all teams players. Am I wrong here?


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#36

Posted: July 03, 2019, 10:27 AM Post
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Posts: 6522
JosephC - Hilarious. I've been guilty of buying into the sudden prospect helium more times than I would like to admit. As nate82 mentioned, I am certain front offices are much better at taking the long-view (and less game results based) when it comes to prospect valuation. As is often said, player development is not a linear path.

Brew crew 92 - If you don't believe the site's valuations are very accurate that is fine, and I think you have expressed that in multiple posts now so everyone should have a pretty good sense of where you stand on it. Obviously the values given to players are never going to be 100% accurate and will even carry significant variance from each organization's internal player scouting evaluations. I don't think the website is making claims they've created some type of full-proof blanket system that can't be argued or adjusted. It should be used more as a guide to get a general sense of player's ballpark value. In many cases factors beyond just straight value will enter the equation (i.e. organizational needs; roster construction; a team's competitive cycle; etc).

If you want to criticize their product I would encourage you to gain an understanding of the methodology and what they are actually attempting to accomplish. A good start would be to go back and listen to the podcast that was linked in the initial post. They are updating the values of MLB players daily. I don't know how often they are updating prospect values, but I can certainly understand the difficulties that would present. As others mentioned, front offices aren't typically going to put much stock in a couple of months of counting stats, either. There is also always going to be a wide variance of scouting opinions on prospects, so that will certainly remain a challenge for them. That being said, I don't think their current values are as wild as you are making them out to be.

Teams have much better information than what is publicly available, so the website will never be perfect. What it will hopefully provide is some sense of whether a potential trade is within the realm of possibility or or not from a value standpoint. As they discussed on the podcast, one of the true tests will be reviewing their numbers as actual trades occur. That will present an opportunity to going back and view how close or far off they were from matching up in estimated value. As trades occur this month I will take a look at what the website had the various players valued at and post the comparison in this thread.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#37

Posted: July 03, 2019, 10:47 AM Post
Posts: 3060
Eye Black said:
JosephC - Hilarious. I've been guilty of buying into the sudden prospect helium more times than I would like to admit. As nate82 mentioned, I am certain front offices are much better at taking the long-view (and less game results based) when it comes to prospect valuation. As is often said, player development is not a linear path.

Brew crew 92 - If you don't believe the site's valuations are very accurate that is fine, and I think you have expressed that in multiple posts now so everyone should have a pretty good sense of where you stand on it. Obviously the values given to players are never going to be 100% accurate and will even carry significant variance from each organization's internal player scouting evaluations. I don't think the website is making claims they've created some type of full-proof blanket system that can't be argued or adjusted. It should be used more as a guide to get a general sense of player's ballpark value. In many cases factors beyond just straight value will enter the equation (i.e. organizational needs; roster construction; a team's competitive cycle; etc).

If you want to criticize their product I would encourage you to gain an understanding of the methodology and what they are actually attempting to accomplish. A good start would be to go back and listen to the podcast that was linked in the initial post. They are updating the values of MLB players daily. I don't know how often they are updating prospect values, but I can certainly understand the difficulties that would present. As others mentioned, front offices aren't typically going to put much stock in a couple of months of counting stats, either. There is also always going to be a wide variance of scouting opinions on prospects, so that will certainly remain a challenge for them. That being said, I don't think their current values are as wild as you are making them out to be.

Teams have much better information than what is publicly available, so the website will never be perfect. What it will hopefully provide is some sense of whether a potential trade is within the realm of possibility or or not from a value standpoint. As they discussed on the podcast, one of the true tests will be reviewing their numbers as actual trades occur. That will present an opportunity to going back and view how close or far off they were from matching up in estimated value. As trades occur this month I will take a look at what the website had the various players valued at and post the comparison in this thread.


Thank you for that explanation, and for the comparisons ahead.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#38

Posted: July 07, 2019, 8:31 AM Post
Posts: 44
I've had a lot of fun playing around with this site over the last week, but some of the values, even understanding how they landed there, seem a little off. For example, I've noticed a lot of Atlanta proposals (presumably made by Atlanta fans) are built around Ender Inciarte (18.5) and Lius Gohara (13.8, despite being out the entire season with a shoulder injury). Fun tool, but still requires some common sense!

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-10857/

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-10854/


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#39

Posted: July 07, 2019, 12:41 PM Post
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LincolnDD said:
Fun tool, but still requires some common sense!

Completely agree. It is fun to use and seemingly close-ish on a lot of player values, but occasionally they don’t pass the “smell test”. It is probably best used as a general guide in constructing a trade idea, but ultimately teams needs, motivations, and own internal player evaluations need to matchup with one another for a trade to actually happen.


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Offline  Re: Baseball Trade Values website
#40

Posted: July 13, 2019, 2:14 PM Post
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Posts: 6522
The Rays and Rangers just completed a one-for-one trade...

The Rays traded away INF/OF Nick Solak who was the #93 overall ranked prospect according to FanGraphs and in return received right-handed relief pitcher Peter Fairbanks from the Rangers.

The value attributed to each on the Baseball Trade Value site is as follows...

2B Nick Solak - 6.4

RHRP Peter Fairbanks - 5.7

So fairly close value according to the website.


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