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Relief Pitching Options

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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#21

Posted: July 06, 2019, 10:22 AM Post
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Turang or Ashby are by themselves worth at least $26MM in surplus value each, Turang arguably quite a bit more given the recently improved scouting coming out on him. I wouldn't trade Ashby for Diaz, either, given that he'll be in AA by this time next year.

Dubon and Supak gets to about $35MM in surplus value for me. Dunno if that gets it done for Diaz or not, but I wouldn't be interested in getting into a bidding war for the guy.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#22

Posted: July 06, 2019, 5:15 PM Post
Posts: 271
And That said:
Turang or Ashby are by themselves worth at least $26MM in surplus value each, Turang arguably quite a bit more given the recently improved scouting coming out on him. I wouldn't trade Ashby for Diaz, either, given that he'll be in AA by this time next year.

Dubon and Supak gets to about $35MM in surplus value for me. Dunno if that gets it done for Diaz or not, but I wouldn't be interested in getting into a bidding war for the guy.


Whose guide are you using to get a surplus value for Turang, Ashby, Dubon, and Supak. The highest value for Turang I can find is 16.6.


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#23

Posted: July 06, 2019, 5:32 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
And That said:
Turang or Ashby are by themselves worth at least $26MM in surplus value each, Turang arguably quite a bit more given the recently improved scouting coming out on him. I wouldn't trade Ashby for Diaz, either, given that he'll be in AA by this time next year.

Dubon and Supak gets to about $35MM in surplus value for me. Dunno if that gets it done for Diaz or not, but I wouldn't be interested in getting into a bidding war for the guy.


Whose guide are you using to get a surplus value for Turang, Ashby, Dubon, and Supak. The highest value for Turang I can find is 16.6.


Not going to speak for And That but he is using OFP.

I believe Turang's OFP has probably risen since the beginning of the year I am guessing that Turang is closer to a 60-65 graded prospect now and Ashby closer to 55-60 rating. That puts Ashby at a solid #3 starter and Turang as a regular or an all star capable player. This would increase their value higher.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#24

Posted: July 06, 2019, 9:20 PM Post
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Yah, Turang has moved from a 50 OFP to more of a 55 OFP. At 50 OFP, he’s worth $26MM by Driveline’s research. At 55, it’s $42MM. FanGraphs gave Turang a 45 at the beginning of the year but it’s been a 50 or 55 from everyone else, with more recent data showing 55s.

I use OFP instead of prospect list rankings for value basis because a)there’s better research behind the OFP tie-out to $/WAR, b)OFP is more stable across various sources, c)rankings compare players to other players while OFP compares players to a performance baseline (WAR), and d)it’s closer approximation of the data front offices are using (i.e. they aren’t pulling out top 100 rankings when valuing guys).

Here are the 2019 Driveline WAR valuations:
https://twitter.com/youknowandthat/stat ... 28838?s=21


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#25

Posted: July 07, 2019, 7:30 AM Post
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For a pitching prospect to carry 26 million dollars in surplus value, he'd have to rate at around #60 on the top 100 prospects list on my board, and I haven't seen Ashby anywhere in that neighborhood on any list. We'll see what the mid-season updates look like about a month from now. I'll stick with my guess of Ashby being worth about 5.5 million dollars in prospect surplus value to an average MLB team....and if I have under-estimated that value, I'd still guess that his prospect surplus value would top out at about 10.6 million at this time.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#26

Posted: July 07, 2019, 10:54 AM Post
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JosephC said:
For a pitching prospect to carry 26 million dollars in surplus value, he'd have to rate at around #60 on the top 100 prospects list on my board, and I haven't seen Ashby anywhere in that neighborhood on any list. We'll see what the mid-season updates look like about a month from now. I'll stick with my guess of Ashby being worth about 5.5 million dollars in prospect surplus value to an average MLB team....and if I have under-estimated that value, I'd still guess that his prospect surplus value would top out at about 10.6 million at this time.


Prospect lists is a horrible way of evaluating value. After the top 50 you basically have the same player with the same warts it is basically just a guessing game after 50. You could even argue that anyone beyond the top 25 are basically the same player.

Players beyond the top 50 are players who scouts like because of athleticism or some other non arbitrary reason.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#27

Posted: July 08, 2019, 6:26 AM Post
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nate82 said:
JosephC said:
For a pitching prospect to carry 26 million dollars in surplus value, he'd have to rate at around #60 on the top 100 prospects list on my board, and I haven't seen Ashby anywhere in that neighborhood on any list. We'll see what the mid-season updates look like about a month from now. I'll stick with my guess of Ashby being worth about 5.5 million dollars in prospect surplus value to an average MLB team....and if I have under-estimated that value, I'd still guess that his prospect surplus value would top out at about 10.6 million at this time.


Prospect lists is a horrible way of evaluating value. After the top 50 you basically have the same player with the same warts it is basically just a guessing game after 50. You could even argue that anyone beyond the top 25 are basically the same player.

Players beyond the top 50 are players who scouts like because of athleticism or some other non arbitrary reason.


Anyone can see who the athletes are. Brinson was supposed to be this super prospect 2 years ago. Who's making a bigger impact in the majors right now? Garrett Cooper who had a hard time cracking the Brewer top 25 but could always hit a baseball. Never underestimate guys that hit at every level.


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Online  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#28

Posted: July 08, 2019, 7:12 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
nate82 said:
JosephC said:
For a pitching prospect to carry 26 million dollars in surplus value, he'd have to rate at around #60 on the top 100 prospects list on my board, and I haven't seen Ashby anywhere in that neighborhood on any list. We'll see what the mid-season updates look like about a month from now. I'll stick with my guess of Ashby being worth about 5.5 million dollars in prospect surplus value to an average MLB team....and if I have under-estimated that value, I'd still guess that his prospect surplus value would top out at about 10.6 million at this time.


Prospect lists is a horrible way of evaluating value. After the top 50 you basically have the same player with the same warts it is basically just a guessing game after 50. You could even argue that anyone beyond the top 25 are basically the same player.

Players beyond the top 50 are players who scouts like because of athleticism or some other non arbitrary reason.


Anyone can see who the athletes are. Brinson was supposed to be this super prospect 2 years ago. Who's making a bigger impact in the majors right now? Garrett Cooper who had a hard time cracking the Brewer top 25 but could always hit a baseball. Never underestimate guys that hit at every level.


Exactly.
Stearns has made mistakes, Cooper, drafting Ray, but I think he recognizes the hit tool is by far the most important tool, that’s why Yelich and Cain are brewers, Hiura and Turang drafted.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#29

Posted: July 10, 2019, 11:43 AM Post
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https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1149009673737134083

An old friend is available for free. Sign him up and trade for Will Smith and we're back in business! 2016 business!


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#30

Posted: July 10, 2019, 3:34 PM Post
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Warning Track Power said:
https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1149009673737134083

An old friend is available for free. Sign him up and trade for Will Smith and we're back in business! 2016 business!


Thornburg has been beyond awful since coming off surgery. He's was horrendous in AAA too so the Red Sox are letting him go. No thanks, he's not worth even a minor lg. contract.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#31

Posted: July 10, 2019, 5:09 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Warning Track Power said:
https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1149009673737134083

An old friend is available for free. Sign him up and trade for Will Smith and we're back in business! 2016 business!


Thornburg has been beyond awful since coming off surgery. He's was horrendous in AAA too so the Red Sox are letting him go. No thanks, he's not worth even a minor lg. contract.

I would normally agree but Jeffress bought all relievers enough good will with me that I try it out again.


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Online  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#32

Posted: July 14, 2019, 7:26 AM Post
Posts: 1987
Trade for Ian Kennedy:
Kennedy & 6.5 mil. > T. Williams & Stokes & Lemons

Trade for Will Smith:
Smith> Ray & Henry & Diplan

I have Kennedy for next year as well at 10 mil. And Smith for this year’s stretch run.

I then Option Claudio.
I Move Burnes & Peralta to AAA, to start, and work on their mix, and the end of August I have the option depending on how they are pitching and the big league rotation is doing, put one or both into the rotation or bullpen for the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#33

Posted: July 14, 2019, 8:47 AM Post
Posts: 403
Brew crew 92 said:
Trade for Ian Kennedy:
Kennedy & 6.5 mil. > T. Williams & Stokes & Lemons

Trade for Will Smith:
Smith> Ray & Henry & Diplan

I have Kennedy for next year as well at 10 mil. And Smith for this year’s stretch run.

I then Option Claudio.
I Move Burnes & Peralta to AAA, to start, and work on their mix, and the end of August I have the option depending on how they are pitching and the big league rotation is doing, put one or both into the rotation or bullpen for the playoffs.


I don't see the Brewers giving up Ray for a rental, I think maybe you just don't like him so I can see why you don't mind but I doubt the Brewers share that view. Smith has been really good and may fetch a prospect as good as Ray but the Brewers don't have the prospect depth and can't make it up in FA like some of the other contenders. Someone else said it here yesterday but the recent slide should take most of the Brewers top 10 prospects off the block until the team shows they have turned it around.


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Online  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#34

Posted: July 14, 2019, 9:12 AM Post
Posts: 1987
OldHeidelberg said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Trade for Ian Kennedy:
Kennedy & 6.5 mil. > T. Williams & Stokes & Lemons

Trade for Will Smith:
Smith> Ray & Henry & Diplan

I have Kennedy for next year as well at 10 mil. And Smith for this year’s stretch run.

I then Option Claudio.
I Move Burnes & Peralta to AAA, to start, and work on their mix, and the end of August I have the option depending on how they are pitching and the big league rotation is doing, put one or both into the rotation or bullpen for the playoffs.


I don't see the Brewers giving up Ray for a rental, I think maybe you just don't like him so I can see why you don't mind but I doubt the Brewers share that view. Smith has been really good and may fetch a prospect as good as Ray but the Brewers don't have the prospect depth and can't make it up in FA like some of the other contenders. Someone else said it here yesterday but the recent slide should take most of the Brewers top 10 prospects off the block until the team shows they have turned it around.


Your correct, I don’t like Ray as a prospect. Imo, Grisham has surpassed him as a prospect, but I’m making this trade now, not in 17 days, that will require Not just Ray but Peyton Henry as well.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#35

Posted: July 14, 2019, 9:28 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Trade for Ian Kennedy:
Kennedy & 6.5 mil. > T. Williams & Stokes & Lemons.

Kennedy is 34 and due $16.5M next year, as well as the remainder of that this year (~$8M right now). The Royals will have to throw in a lot more than $6.5M to get those prospects.

For reference, last year a 34-year-old proven closer in Joakim Soria who was making only $9M was acquired for Kodi Medeiros and a 20-year-old DSL arm and the White Sox kicked in $1M to cover the buyout of Soria's 2019 option. If the Brewers weren't going to pay Soria $10M for 2019, they sure as heck aren't going to pay Kennedy $16.5M.

Kennedy isn't a proven closer like Soria, so the net would have to be no more than $3M for the rest of this year and no more than $5M for next year. The Royals would have to kick in at least $16.5M in order to get those prospects, and likely only two of the three.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#36

Posted: July 14, 2019, 10:08 AM Post
Posts: 403
Brew crew 92 said:

Your correct, I don’t like Ray as a prospect. Imo, Grisham has surpassed him as a prospect, but I’m making this trade now, not in 17 days, that will require Not just Ray but Peyton Henry as well.


I am as happy about Grisham as anyone but he is hitting .252 with an .860 OPS on the year, nice but not so great it jumps him ahead of 28 other guys in half a season. I don't think he is having as good a season as Ray did last year. Plus he is a corner OF while Ray can play center in the majors, I guess he is 2 years younger but Ray's all around game still keeps him near the top of our system IMO.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#37

Posted: July 14, 2019, 10:20 AM Post
Posts: 17380
OldHeidelberg said:
Brew crew 92 said:

Your correct, I don’t like Ray as a prospect. Imo, Grisham has surpassed him as a prospect, but I’m making this trade now, not in 17 days, that will require Not just Ray but Peyton Henry as well.


I am as happy about Grisham as anyone but he is hitting .252 with an .860 OPS on the year, nice but not so great it jumps him ahead of 28 other guys in half a season. I don't think he is having as good a season as Ray did last year. Plus he is a corner OF while Ray can play center in the majors, I guess he is 2 years younger but Ray's all around game still keeps him near the top of our system IMO.


Grisham has literally not played any other position than CF this year, so I don't know why you would assume he is limited to the corners while Ray can play CF at this level.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#38

Posted: July 14, 2019, 10:47 AM Post
Posts: 403
adambr2 said:
OldHeidelberg said:
Brew crew 92 said:

Your correct, I don’t like Ray as a prospect. Imo, Grisham has surpassed him as a prospect, but I’m making this trade now, not in 17 days, that will require Not just Ray but Peyton Henry as well.


I am as happy about Grisham as anyone but he is hitting .252 with an .860 OPS on the year, nice but not so great it jumps him ahead of 28 other guys in half a season. I don't think he is having as good a season as Ray did last year. Plus he is a corner OF while Ray can play center in the majors, I guess he is 2 years younger but Ray's all around game still keeps him near the top of our system IMO.


Grisham has literally not played any other position than CF this year, so I don't know why you would assume he is limited to the corners while Ray can play CF at this level.


I guess that is my impression from scouting reports? I could be wrong there as I checked and the one below doesn't say Grisham can't play center in the majors but i thought he profiled more as a corner guy as a MLB starter. He is certainly not as fast as Ray.

From pipeline:

Ray's wheels also serve him well in center field, where he's an above-average defender with at least average arm strength.


Defensively, Grisham primarily plays left field but has seen time at all three outfield positions throughout his career.


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Online  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#39

Posted: July 14, 2019, 10:59 AM Post
Posts: 1987
LouisEly said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Trade for Ian Kennedy:
Kennedy & 6.5 mil. > T. Williams & Stokes & Lemons.

Kennedy is 34 and due $16.5M next year, as well as the remainder of that this year (~$8M right now). The Royals will have to throw in a lot more than $6.5M to get those prospects.

For reference, last year a 34-year-old proven closer in Joakim Soria who was making only $9M was acquired for Kodi Medeiros and a 20-year-old DSL arm and the White Sox kicked in $1M to cover the buyout of Soria's 2019 option. If the Brewers weren't going to pay Soria $10M for 2019, they sure as heck aren't going to pay Kennedy $16.5M.

Kennedy isn't a proven closer like Soria, so the net would have to be no more than $3M for the rest of this year and no more than $5M for next year. The Royals would have to kick in at least $16.5M in order to get those prospects, and likely only two of the three.


Ok, makes sense, all I know is I want Kennedy, his peripherals are good, he should be a real weapon the rest of this year and next.


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Offline  Re: Relief Pitching Options
#40

Posted: July 14, 2019, 11:59 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
Grisham has literally not played any other position than CF this year, so I don't know why you would assume he is limited to the corners while Ray can play CF at this level.

Grisham is not very good in center. He's probably a LF in the bigs.


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