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Is it time to consider moving Hader

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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 12, 2019, 12:24 PM Post
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If you can get Lux for Hader straight up you do it. If he can play short that would be fantastic.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 12, 2019, 12:59 PM Post
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Lux is probably more valuable when considering cost and years.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 12, 2019, 3:32 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
nate82 said:
turborickey said:
What about Lux for Hader straight up? I'd think that LA would have to throw in a couple lower level lottery tickets, but this would intrigue me.

I think we could get more though, but the thought of having Lux is exciting.


Lux has more value than Hader. Woodruff for Lux is closer but I think Lux has a little bit more value than Woodruff.


Geez. Lux is a prospect. A good one no doubt, but still a prospect. I disagree wholeheartedly that a player that has proven next to nothing in MLB is worth substantially more than a super young top 3 MLB reliever with multiple years of control, much less a young ace-caliber pitcher with multiple years of control. Lets get real here.


Yes lets get real here. Cost + years of control makes Lux more valuable.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 12, 2019, 6:33 PM Post
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Three years of Gavin Lux at league minimum pre-Arby salaries is even more valuable to the Dodgers than it is to other teams given their Luxury Tax situation.

I don't think the Dodgers would entertain dealing Dustin May, Will Smith or Kelbert Ruiz for Hader for the same reason, even if they are just prospects or recently graduated.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 12, 2019, 8:05 PM Post
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Top prospects are traded for veterans every year. I realize that Lux has a lot of value, but Hader more than likely has more value than any reliever in the majors. I'm sorry, but saying I'm just not going to believe that Lux, an unproven prospect, has significantly more value than Hader, a known high end All Star commodity.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 12, 2019, 9:23 PM Post
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Lux is a consensus top 10 prospect, FanGraphs has him at a 60 FV. That puts his surplus value somewhere in the neighborhood of 55-80 million dollars depending on your preferred methodology.

Hader has averaged around 2.5 WAR per full season, even if you assume no attrition/injury risk & put him down for 10 WAR over his remaining four years, that is about 80 million in on field value.

Once you subtract four seasons of escalating Arby salaries from Josh's already optimistic 10 WAR projection it's pretty easy to get to the point where Lux has more surplus value.

The other thing to consider, besides nebulous prospect rankings & dollar to WAR calculations, is that the current Dodgers regime has never traded a prospect the caliber of Lux. Buehler, Urias, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson & Will Smith were also all just (really highly ranked) prospects at one point too & they are all still Dodgers.

Maybe top prospects are traded for veterans every year, but not by the Dodgers.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 13, 2019, 5:22 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
Lux is a consensus top 10 prospect, FanGraphs has him at a 60 FV. That puts his surplus value somewhere in the neighborhood of 55-80 million dollars depending on your preferred methodology.

Hader has averaged around 2.5 WAR per full season, even if you assume no attrition/injury risk & put him down for 10 WAR over his remaining four years, that is about 80 million in on field value.

Once you subtract four seasons of escalating Arby salaries from Josh's already optimistic 10 WAR projection it's pretty easy to get to the point where Lux has more surplus value.

The other thing to consider, besides nebulous prospect rankings & dollar to WAR calculations, is that the current Dodgers regime has never traded a prospect the caliber of Lux. Buehler, Urias, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson & Will Smith were also all just (really highly ranked) prospects at one point too & they are all still Dodgers.

Maybe top prospects are traded for veterans every year, but not by the Dodgers.


I always figured it was safely assumed that WAR is not a very viable stat when comparing a pitcher (especially a reliever) to a position player. You are right, the Dodgers have managed to hang on to pretty much all of their high-end prospects ... but at the same time, they haven't ever really had the need they do now in the pen either.

I guess this is just something we'll have to agree to disagree on. I personally think Lux's value is getting to a unicorn level of inflation here ... almost to the point where if he were to become a Brewer, and he didn't immediately bring Hiura's bat along with Gold Glove-level defense to the SS position, people would be disappointed. For me, not every top prospect turns into a star player, while Hader is a star already. It's as simple as that. I totally get the other side of the argument. I just think this is a case of prospect envy where we prop up the opposing team's property, while perhaps discounting ours. The Brewers are taking on more risk in a deal like this.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 13, 2019, 7:53 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
Lux is a consensus top 10 prospect, FanGraphs has him at a 60 FV. That puts his surplus value somewhere in the neighborhood of 55-80 million dollars depending on your preferred methodology.

Hader has averaged around 2.5 WAR per full season, even if you assume no attrition/injury risk & put him down for 10 WAR over his remaining four years, that is about 80 million in on field value.

Once you subtract four seasons of escalating Arby salaries from Josh's already optimistic 10 WAR projection it's pretty easy to get to the point where Lux has more surplus value.

The other thing to consider, besides nebulous prospect rankings & dollar to WAR calculations, is that the current Dodgers regime has never traded a prospect the caliber of Lux. Buehler, Urias, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson & Will Smith were also all just (really highly ranked) prospects at one point too & they are all still Dodgers.

Maybe top prospects are traded for veterans every year, but not by the Dodgers.


Yeah but Dodgers haven't won it all in more than 30 years and the frustration is palpable for a franchise with extremely high expectations. It doesn't have to be a straight up Hader for Lux deal. Brewers have a lot of guys who fall in the "sweetener" category.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 13, 2019, 8:06 AM Post
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The math indicates that the Brewers, not the Dodgers, would need to add any sweeteners though...

Lux (55 to 80 million surplus value) > Hader (80 million minus four years of Arby salaries)

Most teams (especially one as smart as the Dodgers) will also bake some injury/attrition risk into their Hader projections, so the 10 WAR/80 million starting point is probably already high to begin with.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 13, 2019, 8:15 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
The math indicates that the Brewers, not the Dodgers, would need to add any sweeteners though...

Lux (55 to 80 million surplus value) > Hader (80 million minus four years of Arby salaries)

Most teams (especially one as smart as the Dodgers) will also bake some injury/attrition risk into their Hader projections, so the 10 WAR/80 million starting point is probably already high to begin with.


The Brewers aren't idiots, and they would bake the same injury risk into their offer. Plus, I don't think the Brewers would be the ones going to the Dodgers. The Dodgers would be the pursuers here, so the Brewers would hold that card. The Brewers certainly do not need to trade Hader. Not at all.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 13, 2019, 8:32 AM Post
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The 55-80 million surplus value estimation range for Lux already has the risk baked into it...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-t ... valuation/

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb ... d-edition/


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 13, 2019, 8:41 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
The 55-80 million surplus value estimation range for Lux already has the risk baked into it...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-t ... valuation/

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb ... d-edition/


Fair enough. Obviously the valuations don't take leverage into account, though. I'd argue that the Brewers would hold a large portion of the leverage in this particular situation.

Its because of that that I don't think the Brewers would even consider dealing Hader unless they feel bowled over by an offer. I don't know if Lux by himself would do that. Of course, we have no idea how much value the Brewers place on Lux either.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 13, 2019, 11:36 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
The math indicates that the Brewers, not the Dodgers, would need to add any sweeteners though...

Lux (55 to 80 million surplus value) > Hader (80 million minus four years of Arby salaries)

Most teams (especially one as smart as the Dodgers) will also bake some injury/attrition risk into their Hader projections, so the 10 WAR/80 million starting point is probably already high to begin with.


Surplus value is meaningless when talking about an unproven player. Lux has potential. Hader is a proven all-star. There are lots of examples where "high surplus value" prospects didn't pan out in the big leagues. The Brewers have had their fair share of such prospects. Until Lux proves he is of MLB caliber, Hader remains more valuable, especially to the Dodgers who already have Seagers.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 13, 2019, 5:37 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
sveumrules said:
The math indicates that the Brewers, not the Dodgers, would need to add any sweeteners though...

Lux (55 to 80 million surplus value) > Hader (80 million minus four years of Arby salaries)

Most teams (especially one as smart as the Dodgers) will also bake some injury/attrition risk into their Hader projections, so the 10 WAR/80 million starting point is probably already high to begin with.


Surplus value is meaningless when talking about an unproven player. Lux has potential. Hader is a proven all-star. There are lots of examples where "high surplus value" prospects didn't pan out in the big leagues. The Brewers have had their fair share of such prospects. Until Lux proves he is of MLB caliber, Hader remains more valuable, especially to the Dodgers who already have Seagers.


Surplus value is not meaningless when talking about an unproven player. Both the links upthread discuss the methodology & front offices perform their own proprietary versions of the same exercise to aid in determining the values of prospects in their & other team's systems.

Edwin Diaz, Blake Treinen & Jose LeClerc were all as good or better than Hader in 2018, how did they do in 2019? Look at the top 10 relievers in 2017, how did they do in 2019.

Relievers, even elite ones, carry just as much if not more risk than elite position prospects with a broad range of across the board skills like Lux.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: October 14, 2019, 1:58 PM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
sveumrules said:
Lux is a consensus top 10 prospect, FanGraphs has him at a 60 FV. That puts his surplus value somewhere in the neighborhood of 55-80 million dollars depending on your preferred methodology.

Hader has averaged around 2.5 WAR per full season, even if you assume no attrition/injury risk & put him down for 10 WAR over his remaining four years, that is about 80 million in on field value.

Once you subtract four seasons of escalating Arby salaries from Josh's already optimistic 10 WAR projection it's pretty easy to get to the point where Lux has more surplus value.

The other thing to consider, besides nebulous prospect rankings & dollar to WAR calculations, is that the current Dodgers regime has never traded a prospect the caliber of Lux. Buehler, Urias, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson & Will Smith were also all just (really highly ranked) prospects at one point too & they are all still Dodgers.

Maybe top prospects are traded for veterans every year, but not by the Dodgers.


Yeah but Dodgers haven't won it all in more than 30 years and the frustration is palpable for a franchise with extremely high expectations. It doesn't have to be a straight up Hader for Lux deal. Brewers have a lot of guys who fall in the "sweetener" category.


I think this is the "wild card" in all of this. The Dodgers are going to be DESPERATE to win it all next season, after falling short 7 straight years now. Especially after this past season where they had the best record in the NL and one of the best records in all of baseball, and didn't even make it to the NLCS. AND, it was their late inning bullpen that eventually let them down. So, while a deal like this will probably never happen - I think there is a lot that makes sense here. And, if 3 months of Chapman nets the Yankees Torres, how can 4 years of Hader not be worth more than just Gavin Lux? If I'm Stearns, I'm asking for Lux and Ruiz for Hader, and I honestly wouldn't rule out asking for another prospect in the deal as well.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 05, 2019, 11:40 AM Post
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Hader to the Mets for Andres Gimenez (blocked), Dom Smith (blocked), Mark Vientos and Shervyn Newton.

All of a sudden we actually have some position player prospects with one ready to play everyday this year (Smith), and one who is fairly close (Gimenez) plus a couple other interesting guys.

Controllable young talent! We need some.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 05, 2019, 12:20 PM Post
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Oxy said:
Hader to the Mets for Andres Gimenez (blocked), Dom Smith (blocked), Mark Vientos and Shervyn Newton.

All of a sudden we actually have some position player prospects with one ready to play everyday this year (Smith), and one who is fairly close (Gimenez) plus a couple other interesting guys.

Controllable young talent! We need some.


Meh....no thanks. I see nothing but major question marks in the four guys you listed. Yeah, maybe our farm system ranking gets a slight boost, but I would want 1-2 "can't miss" prospects for a guy like Hader if we are going to trade him away this early.

Just look what the Mets had to give up last year for Edwin Diaz. Kelenic and Dunn came back in that package!


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 05, 2019, 12:31 PM Post
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madtownhawk said:

Meh....no thanks. I see nothing but major question marks in the four guys you listed. Yeah, maybe our farm system ranking gets a slight boost, but I would want 1-2 "can't miss" prospects for a guy like Hader if we are going to trade him away this early.

Just look what the Mets had to give up last year for Edwin Diaz. Kelenic and Dunn came back in that package!


I would have agreed with this in July. A true blue chip prospect plus a few high upside guys. However, now we also save $5-$6M this year (+ likely $10-12M in his arby 4 2023 year).

That trade value website dropped his suplus value from around $80M to around $48M. We might get one blue chipper now, but I don't want to put all my eggs in one prospect basket... Those are 4 high upside guys at positions of extreme need for the franchise. I think that's about as good as we are going to get.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 05, 2019, 2:13 PM Post
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To me the case for selling Hader is actually getting pretty strong. He's going to get pricey, he's a reliever which by his very nature makes him potentially volatile going forward, and he's still got a ton of value.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 05, 2019, 2:55 PM Post
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Oxy said:
I think that's about as good as we are going to get.


Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage.


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