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Is it time to consider moving Hader

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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 05, 2019, 4:29 PM Post
Posts: 499
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Oxy said:
I think that's about as good as we are going to get.


Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage.


I agree 100%. Gimenez didn't live up to expectations in AA (.250/.305/.695 OPS). The Mets downgraded him after his showing in there. Smith did well, but he's a 1B and easily replaceable. Vientos is still in A ball and 3-4 years away. Newton stunk in A ball (.209/.283) and is 4-5 years away IF he gets that far. All together the package isn't close to what Hader is worth to the Brewers. They get an Ok 1B and nothing else for years, if at all.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 05, 2019, 5:14 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Oxy said:
I think that's about as good as we are going to get.


Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage.


I agree 100%. Gimenez didn't live up to expectations in AA (.250/.305/.695 OPS). The Mets downgraded him after his showing in there. Smith did well, but he's a 1B and easily replaceable. Vientos is still in A ball and 3-4 years away. Newton stunk in A ball (.209/.283) and is 4-5 years away IF he gets that far. All together the package isn't close to what Hader is worth to the Brewers. They get an Ok 1B and nothing else for years, if at all.


You guys are probably right, but I just have some horrible feeling that either Hader gets hurt as is done for a year and never comes back right or downright loses his command and the BBs skyrocket before the already way-too-high HR rate and he is quickly a borderline MLBer let alone dominant closer.

Call me jaded by 30 Brewer years of 1-2 years of an elite closer and then worthlessness...


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 05, 2019, 5:30 PM Post
Posts: 4645
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Oxy said:
I think that's about as good as we are going to get.


Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage.


Were I the Brewers GM, the Mets would need to offer a package that started with Jeff McNeil and Dom Smith, plus minor-league pitchers Andrew Mitchell and Garrison Bryant, and in return they get Hader and Lucas Erceg.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 05, 2019, 6:56 PM Post
Posts: 4442
What about the Atlanta Braves? They would clearly have the SP our team needs. Their 3 highest Games Finished RP, not one below 3.7ERA. But now I'm looking and they traded 2 SP prospects this season including a guy I'd take all day in Kolby Allard!!! OMG for a 17.2IP 4.08ERA 33yr old Chris Martin. Wow. Ian Anderson would be the top SP prospect now. Not as high at #2, Kyle Wright(may be living on #5 pick) but #3 is Bryce Wilson who MLB.com says is the first HS player to reach the Majors from 2016. Same class as Anderson. So there's that.

Minnesota is another team I'm wondering about. Top prospect is Royce Lewis a SS who is currently blocked by one Jorge Polanco a 5.7WAR SS this season and signed for 4more years with 2 option years beyond that. Maybe you can flip Hader and Arcia for Polanco and the Twins #2 SP prospect ranked 75th currently, Jordan Balazovic. Twins would open up SS for Lewis and by the looks of it have a heckuva shut down Bullpen based on last season's stats.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 05, 2019, 8:47 PM Post
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I wouldn't touch Atlanta starting pitching prospects with a 100-foot pole. Overhyped, overrated junk. It's why they are constantly stealing and begging for starting pitching despite having all these "highly-rated" starters in their system.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 06, 2019, 4:01 PM Post
Posts: 586
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Oxy said:
I think that's about as good as we are going to get.


Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage.


Exactly! We're not trading away one of the best/nastiest relievers in the game (that we still control for several more years) to a "blah" package of prospects. I don't care what the trade value database/reports tell you, there's just no way that Stearns is making that kind of move. A team would have to knock our socks off with an offer this winter if we are going to be dealing Hader - and it would have to include young talent that is MLB ready, because our window to win is now.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 06, 2019, 4:07 PM Post
Posts: 586
brewcrewdue80 said:
What about the Atlanta Braves? They would clearly have the SP our team needs. Their 3 highest Games Finished RP, not one below 3.7ERA. But now I'm looking and they traded 2 SP prospects this season including a guy I'd take all day in Kolby Allard!!! OMG for a 17.2IP 4.08ERA 33yr old Chris Martin. Wow. Ian Anderson would be the top SP prospect now. Not as high at #2, Kyle Wright(may be living on #5 pick) but #3 is Bryce Wilson who MLB.com says is the first HS player to reach the Majors from 2016. Same class as Anderson. So there's that.

Minnesota is another team I'm wondering about. Top prospect is Royce Lewis a SS who is currently blocked by one Jorge Polanco a 5.7WAR SS this season and signed for 4more years with 2 option years beyond that. Maybe you can flip Hader and Arcia for Polanco and the Twins #2 SP prospect ranked 75th currently, Jordan Balazovic. Twins would open up SS for Lewis and by the looks of it have a heckuva shut down Bullpen based on last season's stats.


The Twins might be a team that would have some interest in Hader, but I guess I can't see them giving up Polanco. They are clearly in a win-now mode as well, so why would they want to give up their stud, controllable SS in this deal - and replace him with the no-hitting SS in Arcia? Yeah, they'd get Hader back in return - but I doubt this is something they'd be willing to do. Maybe they'd throw us an offer of Royce Lewis and Balazovic for Hader, but this does nothing for our win-now mentality, as neither of those guys are ready to contribute quite yet at the MLB level.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 8:45 AM Post
Posts: 42
I think the Dodgers line up well as a trade partner for Hader. They have depth at out positions of need, can afford his soon to be inflating salary, and have the bullpen need.

Josh Hader for Corey Seager, Edwin Rios, and Connor Wong.

Seager is a top of the line SS when healthy and fits our Win-Now window with 2 years of control. He also serves as a good bridge to Turang for 2022.

Rios is a mashing 1B that is blocked in LA and would replace Thames as a LH 1B option and bench bat.

Wong is a high floor C prospect that can be ready for 2021 to replace Pina as our backup or gives us Nottingham insurance if he struggles again in 2020.

SS- Saeger (L)
RF - Yelich (L)
2B - Hiura
3B - Moustakas (L)
1B - Braun/Rios
LF - Grisham (L)
CF - Cain
C - Pina/Freitas

Resign Moose at around 11m AAV and spend remaining $$ on a tier 2 SP (Wheeler/Kuechel/Odorizzi) and high leverage BP arm (Pomeranz/Betances)


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 8:55 AM Post
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Vollbc74 said:
I think the Dodgers line up well as a trade partner for Hader. They have depth at out positions of need, can afford his soon to be inflating salary, and have the bullpen need.

Josh Hader for Corey Seager, Edwin Rios, and Connor Wong.

Seager is a top of the line SS when healthy and fits our Win-Now window with 2 years of control. He also serves as a good bridge to Turang for 2022.

Rios is a mashing 1B that is blocked in LA and would replace Thames as a LH 1B option and bench bat.

Wong is a high floor C prospect that can be ready for 2021 to replace Pina as our backup or gives us Nottingham insurance if he struggles again in 2020.

SS- Saeger (L)
RF - Yelich (L)
2B - Hiura
3B - Moustakas (L)
1B - Braun/Rios
LF - Grisham (L)
CF - Cain
C - Pina/Freitas

Resign Moose at around 11m AAV and spend remaining $$ on a tier 2 SP (Wheeler/Kuechel/Odorizzi) and high leverage BP arm (Pomeranz/Betances)


Rios certainly fits the bill as a LH power bat who is capable of playing multiple positions. His best spot is 1B, but he can also play 3B and the corner OF. Really does seem like a Stearns-type guy. Wong is also a very versatile guy who spent time at 3B. This is the exact type of deal I see the Brewers making if they were to deal Hader ... getting a young proven major league piece back, along with two prospects who are pretty much ready for the show.

Nice work! This is the best package I've seen yet. I love Hader, but I think I'd do this deal, as it shores up SS, 1B and C with some really solid upside.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 8:57 AM Post
Posts: 1777
Location: Madison, WI
This has been a pretty interesting thread with valid points made by both sides.

Has there been one credible report that the Dodgers are interested in Hader, or is that just BrewerFan speculation? I did a quick internet search and couldn't find anything that suggests the Dodgers have an interest in trading for Hader.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 9:04 AM Post
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JosephC said:
This has been a pretty interesting thread with valid points made by both sides.

Has there been one credible report that the Dodgers are interested in Hader, or is that just BrewerFan speculation? I did a quick internet search and couldn't find anything that suggests the Dodgers have an interest in trading for Hader.


It's been pretty much educated speculation. It is pretty easy to connect the dots, though. The Dodgers were a favorite to get to the World Series, but a pen implosion/lack of solid pen depth can be blamed for them not getting there. They are an organization that takes the "go big or go home" philosophy to shoring up problem areas. They also have a totally stacked farm system and multiple young player depth at spots where the Brewers have huge needs. Acquiring a 25-year old two-time-consecutive reliever of the year with multiple years of team control, while dealing from positions of extreme depth, makes almost perfect sense.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 9:30 AM Post
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The Dodgers are an organization IMO that will fix their bullpen in other ways than sending the farm for a reliever. They also aren't one to overreact to one little thing like that.

They could just go into the season, build their standard 15 game lead, and trade for 4 Daniel Hudsons at the deadline for less than they'd have to give up to get Hader.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 9:41 AM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
The Dodgers are an organization IMO that will fix their bullpen in other ways than sending the farm for a reliever. They also aren't one to overreact to one little thing like that.

They could just go into the season, build their standard 15 game lead, and trade for 4 Daniel Hudsons at the deadline for less than they'd have to give up to get Hader.


Is it really overreacting, though, when it would be addressing a problem that has spanned several seasons now? The above trade scenario would be far from "sending the farm for a reliever". Seager, the centerpiece of the deal, has Gavin Lux bearing down on him for playing time, not to mention Chris Taylor and Keke Hernandez that can play there as well. They also have a blue chip SS prospect in Jeter Downs and another very good one in Jacob Amaya. Rios is blocked by several players at 1B, as is Wong at C. That system is simply loaded ... which makes it all the more likely that they eventually use some of those prospects as currency to shore up problem areas of the ML roster.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 9:44 AM Post
Posts: 1777
Location: Madison, WI
I could see the Dodgers moving major resources to pick up a reliever like Hader but it would be under their terms. That's not to say they would try to low ball the Brewers (like the Yankees would), but they would likely deal from positional excess and take certain players off the board.

If I'm the Dodgers, I'd have zero interest in dealing Lux and Seager....and if I decided to deal Seager like they might then it would only be for bigger fish than a relief pitcher.

We can point to a couple post-season games, but the Dodgers will also be well aware that their bullpen had the #1 ERA in the NL last season and I don't see them having major knee-jerk reactions based on a couple games when 162 games shows they had a good bullpen.

If I'm the Dodgers and I'm looking to deal for Hader, this is my assessment and what my highest offer would likely be:

Dodgers get:
LHP-Josh Hader (roughly 55 million in surplus value)

Brewers get:
C-Keibert Ruiz (MLB.com has him as #33 prospect but I'd slot him lower...approximately #50....surplus value = 38.9 million)
RHP-Tony Gonsolin (#200 pitcher....surplus value = 10.6 million)
1B-Edwin Rios (solid role player prospect....surplus value = 5.5 million)
I'd submit a list of my top 30 prospects that are off the board, Brewers have their pick of the remaining fringe players...surplus value = 2.2 million)
Total value of package = 57.2 million


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 10:09 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
bill hAll Star said:
The Dodgers are an organization IMO that will fix their bullpen in other ways than sending the farm for a reliever. They also aren't one to overreact to one little thing like that.

They could just go into the season, build their standard 15 game lead, and trade for 4 Daniel Hudsons at the deadline for less than they'd have to give up to get Hader.


Is it really overreacting, though, when it would be addressing a problem that has spanned several seasons now? The above trade scenario would be far from "sending the farm for a reliever". Seager, the centerpiece of the deal, has Gavin Lux bearing down on him for playing time, not to mention Chris Taylor and Keke Hernandez that can play there as well. They also have a blue chip SS prospect in Jeter Downs and another very good one in Jacob Amaya. Rios is blocked by several players at 1B, as is Wong at C. That system is simply loaded ... which makes it all the more likely that they eventually use some of those prospects as currency to shore up problem areas of the ML roster.


Their system has been loaded for a decade and they've barely given anyone up in a trade. Willie Calhoun and some other fodder.

They're pretty smart. I know that some will say, "yeah, but they didn't win a World Series so they need to do something" but they've been, what, a handful of outs away 2 years ago and in the game last year.

Maybe ownership or fans light a fire under their management to do something shortsighted, but if I'm the Dodgers, I just keep churning out head-and-shoulders the best team in the NL on aggregate and eventually if I get there 5, 10 more times...luck will finally even out.

I wouldn't give up a huge portion of my franchise in hopes that Josh Hader pitches well for 8 innings 5 months into the season. They can wait on this one unless they think the Padres are going to come roaring out of the gates this season.

As JosephC pointed out, the Dodgers had a good bullpen in the regular season. If I'm the Dodgers and I have my usual 10+ game lead in July, then I deal for 4 stud relievers. Maybe I even look to trade for Josh Hader then if the Brewers aren't pitching well...but there's minimal point in doing it now. Hader would be "useless" for 5 months because they're going to win the division with or without him.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 10:15 AM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
bill hAll Star said:
The Dodgers are an organization IMO that will fix their bullpen in other ways than sending the farm for a reliever. They also aren't one to overreact to one little thing like that.

They could just go into the season, build their standard 15 game lead, and trade for 4 Daniel Hudsons at the deadline for less than they'd have to give up to get Hader.


Is it really overreacting, though, when it would be addressing a problem that has spanned several seasons now? The above trade scenario would be far from "sending the farm for a reliever". Seager, the centerpiece of the deal, has Gavin Lux bearing down on him for playing time, not to mention Chris Taylor and Keke Hernandez that can play there as well. They also have a blue chip SS prospect in Jeter Downs and another very good one in Jacob Amaya. Rios is blocked by several players at 1B, as is Wong at C. That system is simply loaded ... which makes it all the more likely that they eventually use some of those prospects as currency to shore up problem areas of the ML roster.


Their system has been loaded for a decade and they've barely given anyone up in a trade. Willie Calhoun and some other fodder.

They're pretty smart. I know that some will say, "yeah, but they didn't win a World Series so they need to do something" but they've been, what, a handful of outs away 2 years ago and in the game last year.

Maybe ownership or fans light a fire under their management to do something shortsighted, but if I'm the Dodgers, I just keep churning out head-and-shoulders the best team in the NL on aggregate and eventually if I get there 5, 10 more times...luck will finally even out.

I wouldn't give up a huge portion of my franchise in hopes that Josh Hader pitches well for 8 innings 5 months into the season. They can wait on this one unless they think the Padres are going to come roaring out of the gates this season.


I guess we have different views on what "a huge portion of the franchise" is. Seager is very good, but they have several ready-made replacements for him, including one in Lux who some consider the best prospect in MLB. Rios and Wong are simply fillers for them. They wouldn't be trading any of those precious high-end prospects that they have been so wont to hang onto. But Seager, Rios and Wong would all be hugely valuable to a team like the Brewers that has big organizational holes at all 3 spots.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 10:26 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
bill hAll Star said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:

Is it really overreacting, though, when it would be addressing a problem that has spanned several seasons now? The above trade scenario would be far from "sending the farm for a reliever". Seager, the centerpiece of the deal, has Gavin Lux bearing down on him for playing time, not to mention Chris Taylor and Keke Hernandez that can play there as well. They also have a blue chip SS prospect in Jeter Downs and another very good one in Jacob Amaya. Rios is blocked by several players at 1B, as is Wong at C. That system is simply loaded ... which makes it all the more likely that they eventually use some of those prospects as currency to shore up problem areas of the ML roster.


Their system has been loaded for a decade and they've barely given anyone up in a trade. Willie Calhoun and some other fodder.

They're pretty smart. I know that some will say, "yeah, but they didn't win a World Series so they need to do something" but they've been, what, a handful of outs away 2 years ago and in the game last year.

Maybe ownership or fans light a fire under their management to do something shortsighted, but if I'm the Dodgers, I just keep churning out head-and-shoulders the best team in the NL on aggregate and eventually if I get there 5, 10 more times...luck will finally even out.

I wouldn't give up a huge portion of my franchise in hopes that Josh Hader pitches well for 8 innings 5 months into the season. They can wait on this one unless they think the Padres are going to come roaring out of the gates this season.


I guess we have different views on what "a huge portion of the franchise" is. Seager is very good, but they have several ready-made replacements for him, including one in Lux who some consider the best prospect in MLB. Rios and Wong are simply fillers for them. They wouldn't be trading any of those precious high-end prospects that they have been so wont to hang onto. But Seager, Rios and Wong would all be hugely valuable to a team like the Brewers that has big organizational holes at all 3 spots.


The Dodgers are really good because they hoard these guys. They were able to still win the division with half of their team injured in 2018 because of this.

There are certain times where I am willing to trade a "blocked" guy away or the blocker away, but if I can keep them on my roster and have minimal other holes...why not keep them? The Dodgers have a very high payroll and the ability to do this.

The Dodgers can just start Seager with Lux at 2B and either trade Taylor or just keep him as their super utility guy yet again given that they like to platoon. This is even more likely with the 26 man roster.

If the Dodgers want an elite player they can just open up their checkbook and sign a free agent instead of giving up a chunk of prospects or a good MLB player.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 10:36 AM Post
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Turner is 35 this year and on the final year of his deal. Seager, who I'm advocating they keep instead of trading for Hader, has 2 years left. Hernandez has 1 year left, Taylor 2.

They're going to need all of this next wave to cover their infield. If I'm the Dodgers, I keep them all and continue to dominate the division from 2022-2025 instead of trade one of my guys for 2020-2021 (and more from the minors, potentially) for 8 innings of Josh Hader in the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 10:49 AM Post
Posts: 499
Vollbc74 said:
I think the Dodgers line up well as a trade partner for Hader. They have depth at out positions of need, can afford his soon to be inflating salary, and have the bullpen need.

Josh Hader for Corey Seager, Edwin Rios, and Connor Wong.

Seager is a top of the line SS when healthy and fits our Win-Now window with 2 years of control. He also serves as a good bridge to Turang for 2022.

Rios is a mashing 1B that is blocked in LA and would replace Thames as a LH 1B option and bench bat.

Wong is a high floor C prospect that can be ready for 2021 to replace Pina as our backup or gives us Nottingham insurance if he struggles again in 2020.

SS- Saeger (L)
RF - Yelich (L)
2B - Hiura
3B - Moustakas (L)
1B - Braun/Rios
LF - Grisham (L)
CF - Cain
C - Pina/Freitas

Resign Moose at around 11m AAV and spend remaining $$ on a tier 2 SP (Wheeler/Kuechel/Odorizzi) and high leverage BP arm (Pomeranz/Betances)



No money to get 2 SPs and re-sign Moose and Seager's $6M and arby guys. Pomeranz will be about $5M too. Imo Freitas isn't even on Stearns' radar for a roster spot. They couldn't trust him to catch even one inning when Pina was hurt, so I can't imagine he would be any kind of a backup except at AAA.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 10:56 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Vollbc74 said:
I think the Dodgers line up well as a trade partner for Hader. They have depth at out positions of need, can afford his soon to be inflating salary, and have the bullpen need.

Josh Hader for Corey Seager, Edwin Rios, and Connor Wong.

Seager is a top of the line SS when healthy and fits our Win-Now window with 2 years of control. He also serves as a good bridge to Turang for 2022.

Rios is a mashing 1B that is blocked in LA and would replace Thames as a LH 1B option and bench bat.

Wong is a high floor C prospect that can be ready for 2021 to replace Pina as our backup or gives us Nottingham insurance if he struggles again in 2020.

SS- Saeger (L)
RF - Yelich (L)
2B - Hiura
3B - Moustakas (L)
1B - Braun/Rios
LF - Grisham (L)
CF - Cain
C - Pina/Freitas

Resign Moose at around 11m AAV and spend remaining $$ on a tier 2 SP (Wheeler/Kuechel/Odorizzi) and high leverage BP arm (Pomeranz/Betances)



No money to get 2 SPs and re-sign Moose and Seager's $6M and arby guys. Pomeranz will be about $5M too. Imo Freitas isn't even on Stearns' radar for a roster spot. They couldn't trust him to catch even one inning when Pina was hurt, so I can't imagine he would be any kind of a backup except at AAA.


I'll add again that I can't imagine the Dodgers even getting close to making this deal, but if they would...sign me up.

Seager + Pomeranz = $13m AAV, $11 for Moose...

He said "tier 2" but I think the Brewers would have roughly $15-20m AAV for one last big splash like a backloaded tier 2 pitcher or Grandal.

Again, the Dodgers would not make this trade, though.


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