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Is it time to consider moving Hader

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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 11:12 AM Post
Posts: 499
JosephC said:
I could see the Dodgers moving major resources to pick up a reliever like Hader but it would be under their terms. That's not to say they would try to low ball the Brewers (like the Yankees would), but they would likely deal from positional excess and take certain players off the board.

If I'm the Dodgers, I'd have zero interest in dealing Lux and Seager....and if I decided to deal Seager like they might then it would only be for bigger fish than a relief pitcher.

We can point to a couple post-season games, but the Dodgers will also be well aware that their bullpen had the #1 ERA in the NL last season and I don't see them having major knee-jerk reactions based on a couple games when 162 games shows they had a good bullpen.

If I'm the Dodgers and I'm looking to deal for Hader, this is my assessment and what my highest offer would likely be:

Dodgers get:
LHP-Josh Hader (roughly 55 million in surplus value)

Brewers get:
C-Keibert Ruiz (MLB.com has him as #33 prospect but I'd slot him lower...approximately #50....surplus value = 38.9 million)
RHP-Tony Gonsolin (#200 pitcher....surplus value = 10.6 million)
1B-Edwin Rios (solid role player prospect....surplus value = 5.5 million)
I'd submit a list of my top 30 prospects that are off the board, Brewers have their pick of the remaining fringe players...surplus value = 2.2 million)
Total value of package = 57.2 million


Not a bad group. Ruiz is a young (21) switch-hitting catcher with no power at all. Good defense and doesn't whiff a lot. Don't know if he is ready for the big leagues. Gonsolin could help the stating rotation immediately. Rios is ready for the big show. I guess this trade would depend on if the Brewers think Ruiz is a starting catcher possibility.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 11:42 AM Post
Posts: 547
Hader for Dustin May and Keibert Ruiz


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 11:52 AM Post
Posts: 42
wntrtxn21 said:
Vollbc74 said:
I think the Dodgers line up well as a trade partner for Hader. They have depth at out positions of need, can afford his soon to be inflating salary, and have the bullpen need.

Josh Hader for Corey Seager, Edwin Rios, and Connor Wong.

Seager is a top of the line SS when healthy and fits our Win-Now window with 2 years of control. He also serves as a good bridge to Turang for 2022.

Rios is a mashing 1B that is blocked in LA and would replace Thames as a LH 1B option and bench bat.

Wong is a high floor C prospect that can be ready for 2021 to replace Pina as our backup or gives us Nottingham insurance if he struggles again in 2020.

SS- Saeger (L)
RF - Yelich (L)
2B - Hiura
3B - Moustakas (L)
1B - Braun/Rios
LF - Grisham (L)
CF - Cain
C - Pina/Freitas

Resign Moose at around 11m AAV and spend remaining $$ on a tier 2 SP (Wheeler/Kuechel/Odorizzi) and high leverage BP arm (Pomeranz/Betances)



No money to get 2 SPs and re-sign Moose and Seager's $6M and arby guys. Pomeranz will be about $5M too. Imo Freitas isn't even on Stearns' radar for a roster spot. They couldn't trust him to catch even one inning when Pina was hurt, so I can't imagine he would be any kind of a backup except at AAA.


I have their payroll at 133.88M with the trade and the following FA's:

Wheeler 4/72m
Moose 2/23m
Betances 2/18m
Pomeranz 3/18m
Lyles 2/12m
Avila 1/4m

Those contracts are all based off various projections from fangraphs and MLBTR.

Now that doesn't factor in buyout $$, but I believe that they can stretch the budget to the 130-140 range.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 11:57 AM Post
Posts: 42
^^^^^^

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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 12:41 PM Post
Posts: 113
If we were to move Hader we better get elite talent in return. We should have no interest in getting a pile of mediocre prospects or guys with limited control. If we cannot get a player like Lux who is a top prospect with many years of control we should just keep Hader.

The sport is becoming more and more dependant on bullpens and we have the best reliever potentially available. A team like the Dodgers that continues to fall short in large part due to a bad bullpen should be willing to trade a guy like Lux to land Hader. Do you think Chicago regrets giving up what they did to rent Chapman who helped them win a championship. Of course Torres has more value than half a season of any reliever but the fact is a reliever like Hader can mean the difference between the Dodgers winning it all or losing in the playoffs year after year.

I fully understand the trade value numbers analysis but sometimes a team needs to overpay to get that final piece. If any team can afford to overpay for Hader its the Dodgers who have a good farm system as well as a huge payroll to replace whoever they trade away.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 12:43 PM Post
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Posts: 491
Location: Chicago
What I don't understand how this trade makes the Brewers a better team. It actually kind of makes another NL competitor substantially stronger.

First of all, the only reason Seager would be available in a trade is the fact the Dodgers already have adequate replacements in house (Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor), and Seager has trouble staying healthy and is a free agent after 2021.

Secondly, by trading Josh Hader to the Dodgers, their bullpen would be transformed into an elite shut down unit with Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia, Jansen, and Hader not to mention quality low leverage arms like Joe Kelly and Dylan Floro and potentially Ross Stripling and Julio Urias.

Under a Seager for Hader swap, the Brewers get an All-Star short stop to plug into their lineup which would help in terms of runs scored, but only for two years. Hader is under team control for 4 more years.

Secondly, the Brewers do not have a high leverage bullpen arm to plug into Hader's spot, therefore weakening their bullpen.

Third, this move would also ADD payroll to the Brewers in the short run (and conversely somewhat ease the Dodgers payroll crunch) as Corey Seager is estimated to make 7.1 million in arbitration in 2020 while Hader is not estimated to top 5 million.

I think the idea of trading for prospects and watching young players bloom is cool too; but the Dodgers would take this trade in a heartbeat and laugh all the way to the NLCS or WS.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 12:53 PM Post
Posts: 113
Jopal78! said:
What I don't understand how this trade makes the Brewers a better team. It actually kind of makes another NL competitor substantially stronger.

First of all, the only reason Seager would be available in a trade is the fact the Dodgers already have adequate replacements in house (Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor), and Seager has trouble staying healthy and is a free agent after 2021.

Secondly, by trading Josh Hader to the Dodgers, their bullpen would be transformed into an elite shut down unit with Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia, Jansen, and Hader not to mention quality low leverage arms like Joe Kelly and Dylan Floro and potentially Ross Stripling and Julio Urias.

Under a Seager for Hader swap, the Brewers get an All-Star short stop to plug into their lineup which would help in terms of runs scored, but only for two years. Hader is under team control for 4 more years.

Secondly, the Brewers do not have a high leverage bullpen arm to plug into Hader's spot, therefore weakening their bullpen.

Third, this move would also ADD payroll to the Brewers in the short run (and conversely somewhat ease the Dodgers payroll crunch) as Corey Seager is estimated to make 7.1 million in arbitration in 2020 while Hader is not estimated to top 5 million.

I think the idea of trading for prospects and watching young players bloom is cool too; but the Dodgers would take this trade in a heartbeat and laugh all the way to the NLCS or WS.


As good of a player as Seager is I have no interest in him as the centerpiece of a Hader deal due to his injury history and his lack of control. Hader is under control for 4 more years so we should be looking for a guy like Lux to head the package coming our way. If we can't get elite talent with a ton of control we can just keep the best reliever in the game.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 1:01 PM Post
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Posts: 2633
Seager had to have Tommy John surgery and was recovering from that in 2019. Are there other major injuries he's had? I think he missed a few weeks one season but that's it, otherwise.

The counterpoint is that if you can acquire a guy that was a 7 WAR shortstop that is 25 years old because he was coming off of Tommy John surgery for only a reliever (yes, I know, the most important reliever in baseball) - you might be getting an extreme value even if he has less control.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 3:22 PM Post
Posts: 499
bill hAll Star said:
Seager had to have Tommy John surgery and was recovering from that in 2019. Are there other major injuries he's had? I think he missed a few weeks one season but that's it, otherwise.

The counterpoint is that if you can acquire a guy that was a 7 WAR shortstop that is 25 years old because he was coming off of Tommy John surgery for only a reliever (yes, I know, the most important reliever in baseball) - you might be getting an extreme value even if he has less control.


Seager has had numerous hamstring injuries in his career including the minor leagues. He missed a month in June-July due to hamstring injury last year.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 3:27 PM Post
Posts: 499
Vollbc74 said:
wntrtxn21 said:
Vollbc74 said:
I think the Dodgers line up well as a trade partner for Hader. They have depth at out positions of need, can afford his soon to be inflating salary, and have the bullpen need.

Josh Hader for Corey Seager, Edwin Rios, and Connor Wong.

Seager is a top of the line SS when healthy and fits our Win-Now window with 2 years of control. He also serves as a good bridge to Turang for 2022.

Rios is a mashing 1B that is blocked in LA and would replace Thames as a LH 1B option and bench bat.

Wong is a high floor C prospect that can be ready for 2021 to replace Pina as our backup or gives us Nottingham insurance if he struggles again in 2020.

SS- Saeger (L)
RF - Yelich (L)
2B - Hiura
3B - Moustakas (L)
1B - Braun/Rios
LF - Grisham (L)
CF - Cain
C - Pina/Freitas

Resign Moose at around 11m AAV and spend remaining $$ on a tier 2 SP (Wheeler/Kuechel/Odorizzi) and high leverage BP arm (Pomeranz/Betances)



No money to get 2 SPs and re-sign Moose and Seager's $6M and arby guys. Pomeranz will be about $5M too. Imo Freitas isn't even on Stearns' radar for a roster spot. They couldn't trust him to catch even one inning when Pina was hurt, so I can't imagine he would be any kind of a backup except at AAA.


I have their payroll at 133.88M with the trade and the following FA's:

Wheeler 4/72m
Moose 2/23m
Betances 2/18m
Pomeranz 3/18m
Lyles 2/12m
Avila 1/4m

Those contracts are all based off various projections from fangraphs and MLBTR.

Now that doesn't factor in buyout $$, but I believe that they can stretch the budget to the 130-140 range.


You have only one backup infielder and 5 OFs. Mercer has only played 3B three times in his career. IF MLB puts the pitcher limet at 13, that would take care of the problem. Great salary chart!


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 07, 2019, 3:31 PM Post
Posts: 788
Location: Washburn, WI
The more I think of it, the more I feel like we should move Hader now. If you can get a guy like Lux or Smith, I think you gotta pull the trigger. If we can get someone like that for 6 years with at least a couple seasons of them making the minimum, it REALLY helps us financially moving forward. Instead of paying Hader ~$5 million this season and another substantial increase next season while rolling with Arcia, you get your SS of the future now while having $4.5 million to spend elsewhere like on retaining Pomeranz, bringing in a nice veteran bench piece late in free agency, or some other need.

I think a bullpen with Pomeranz, Knebel, Suter, Wahl, Guerra, one or both of Burnes and Peralta, Claudio, Devin Williams, and Ray Black is a strong bullpen. Plus I’m pretty high on Luke Barker and Nate Griep and think they could start to contribute as early as midseason 2020 at the MLB level. If Pomeranz is retained, I would definitely be comfortable moving Hader with the other pieces we have to round out the pen.

I don’t think Hader should be moved unless there is at least one significant piece coming back that you can slot into your lineup for Opening Day 2020 whether that’s a catcher, shortstop, or possibly even an outfielder to replace Braun if he is moving to 1st mostly full time in his (most likely) final season with Milwaukee. Even with Grisham, there would be plenty of at bats to go around with Cain needing time off, injuries arising, or possible ineffectiveness. Grisham is far from a lock as an MLB contributor and if we could add a top outfield prospect, I would be all over it.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 12, 2019, 10:44 AM Post
Posts: 113
San Diego is rumored to be willing to move prospects to improve their major league team. I wonder if they would be interested in Hader and what they would be willing to give up out of their loaded farm system.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 12, 2019, 10:58 AM Post
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brewers888 said:
San Diego is rumored to be willing to move prospects to improve their major league team. I wonder if they would be interested in Hader and what they would be willing to give up out of their loaded farm system.


I don't see much of a match, as the majority of the Padres upper-end prospects are multiple years away from making a major league impact, and I personally wouldn't think about dealing Hader for a package that isn't going to contribute during this 2-3 year window. I know that might be short-sighted, but I think the Brewers are in win-now mode, and a few extra A ballers ins't going to help, unless the plan is to flip those guys down the road. I suppose Taylor Trammell would be nice to have as an eventual Cain contingency plan.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 12, 2019, 1:01 PM Post
Posts: 788
Location: Washburn, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
brewers888 said:
San Diego is rumored to be willing to move prospects to improve their major league team. I wonder if they would be interested in Hader and what they would be willing to give up out of their loaded farm system.


I don't see much of a match, as the majority of the Padres upper-end prospects are multiple years away from making a major league impact, and I personally wouldn't think about dealing Hader for a package that isn't going to contribute during this 2-3 year window. I know that might be short-sighted, but I think the Brewers are in win-now mode, and a few extra A ballers ins't going to help, unless the plan is to flip those guys down the road. I suppose Taylor Trammell would be nice to have as an eventual Cain contingency plan.


Francisco Mejia would be a good get off of their major league roster. 5 years of control left on him and then we have our catcher of the future.

How about a return of C Francisco Mejia, RHP Luis Patino (MLB #30 Prospect) that has ace potential and is up to AA, and SS/2B Owen Miller who played all of 2019 in AA and did very well. He could definitely start the year in AAA.

You would get your opening day catcher and catcher of the future, a legit pitching prospect with multiple plus pitches that could help out of the pen in 2020 or possibly take over a starting spot later in the season, and a SS that has done nothing but hit since being drafted in 2018. Good range at short and soft hands. Looks like he could stay at the position. He could be a good get before the 2020 season because if he continues to hit how he has, he will definitely find himself in the top 100 by mid-season. Getting a guy in the upper minors at SS is a good option to have if we are rolling with Arcia to start 2020.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 12, 2019, 2:25 PM Post
Posts: 499
RollieTime said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
brewers888 said:
San Diego is rumored to be willing to move prospects to improve their major league team. I wonder if they would be interested in Hader and what they would be willing to give up out of their loaded farm system.


I don't see much of a match, as the majority of the Padres upper-end prospects are multiple years away from making a major league impact, and I personally wouldn't think about dealing Hader for a package that isn't going to contribute during this 2-3 year window. I know that might be short-sighted, but I think the Brewers are in win-now mode, and a few extra A ballers ins't going to help, unless the plan is to flip those guys down the road. I suppose Taylor Trammell would be nice to have as an eventual Cain contingency plan.


Francisco Mejia would be a good get off of their major league roster. 5 years of control left on him and then we have our catcher of the future.

How about a return of C Francisco Mejia, RHP Luis Patino (MLB #30 Prospect) that has ace potential and is up to AA, and SS/2B Owen Miller who played all of 2019 in AA and did very well. He could definitely start the year in AAA.

You would get your opening day catcher and catcher of the future, a legit pitching prospect with multiple plus pitches that could help out of the pen in 2020 or possibly take over a starting spot later in the season, and a SS that has done nothing but hit since being drafted in 2018. Good range at short and soft hands. Looks like he could stay at the position. He could be a good get before the 2020 season because if he continues to hit how he has, he will definitely find himself in the top 100 by mid-season. Getting a guy in the upper minors at SS is a good option to have if we are rolling with Arcia to start 2020.


I don't think Mejia is enough of a big lg. ready pkg. to move Hader. Miller projects as a 2B more than SS so he's really not going to help. Patino has a big fastball and is still very young. However he pitched only 7 innings in AA and is slated to go there again this year. He projects to be up in 2022.


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Online  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 12, 2019, 2:57 PM Post
Posts: 788
Location: Washburn, WI
Mejia would make sure we don’t have a black hole at C while making the minimum for a couple more seasons, allowing more financial flexibility instead of needing to sign someone to pair with Pina. Miller could take over the Perez role and back up 2B, SS, and 3B, and make minimum the next 2-3 years as well.

Depending on how effective his bat is, he could be the everyday SS. That is his main position. I obviously haven’t seen him play, but scouts say he has good range and good hands at SS as is. He just has an average arm. He could probably come up right now and be as effective as Perez was for us. He’s probably opening the season in AAA and could be the first guy up once an injury arises. Or if Arcia continues to struggle, we have a legit prospect ready to replace him and not need to worry about cycling through the DFA wire to find something mid-season.

And then Patino has a ton of upside. I don’t see any reason he couldn’t be a bullpen piece at the least come August. He’s in AA already and throws 98 with multiple plus pitches. He’s young, but looks like a fast mover through the system.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 12, 2019, 3:22 PM Post
Posts: 547
Lemet/Mejía for Hader

Lemet is a solid #3, maybe #2 starter
Mejia would solve our catcher problem for years.


Last edited by mlloyd10 on November 12, 2019, 3:24 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 12, 2019, 3:22 PM Post
Posts: 586
How is Mejia defensively? I'm not into all of the defensive statistics, so hoping someone else could fill that in for me.

Also, would the Padres have enough SP depth, that they might also throw in one of their current SP's into a deal for Hader? Either Lauer, Lucchesi, Lamet or Quantrill. Are any of those guys worth trading for? I guess I don't know enough about these guys, but they certainly have a bunch of young SP's in their rotation, with more on the way. So, just wondering if they could trade from an area of depth?

Maybe a Hader for Mejia, one of the above SP's and another decent prospect?

Is that a reasonable trade for Hader? Too little or too much in return? To be honest, this deal wouldn't thrill me from a Brewers fan perspective, so the more I think about them as a trade partner - the less interested I am.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
Posted: November 12, 2019, 4:06 PM Post
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madtownhawk said:
How is Mejia defensively? I'm not into all of the defensive statistics, so hoping someone else could fill that in for me.

Also, would the Padres have enough SP depth, that they might also throw in one of their current SP's into a deal for Hader? Either Lauer, Lucchesi, Lamet or Quantrill. Are any of those guys worth trading for? I guess I don't know enough about these guys, but they certainly have a bunch of young SP's in their rotation, with more on the way. So, just wondering if they could trade from an area of depth?

Maybe a Hader for Mejia, one of the above SP's and another decent prospect?

Is that a reasonable trade for Hader? Too little or too much in return? To be honest, this deal wouldn't thrill me from a Brewers fan perspective, so the more I think about them as a trade partner - the less interested I am.


Me too. I'm not convinced that Mejia is anything special. He might be a step up from Nottingham as a young catching prospect, but I don't think that step is as sizable as one would think. He doesn't have any power to speak of, and from what I've seen, his defense is simply ok.


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