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Is it time to consider moving Hader

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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#41

Posted: July 06, 2019, 1:01 PM Post
Posts: 2201
What team gives them enough back? The package would have to be similar in prospects to what OKC received in picks from the Clippers for George. It would also HAVE to be after this season, since we still have a good shot at the postseason and Wold Series with one year players Moose and Grandal.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#42

Posted: July 06, 2019, 1:07 PM Post
Posts: 3060
Fear The Chorizo said:
I get that its disappointing the brewers aren't 20 games over 500 and they have plenty if warts, but they are still a 1st place team in a deep division. For what they did over the offseason, it would be foolish at this point to sell, particularly with Hader.

Ride it out, if they tank over the next few weeks then they should look long and hard at trading guys like Moose and Grandal, maybe some other relievers who are actually having good years like Albers...Hader has too much team friendly control left for the brewers to ever actually get equal value in return by dealing him now - maybe they revisit that option 2 offseasons from now.

Odds are much higher that they add, not sell, by july 31st.


The selling high on Hader is NOT being a seller at the deadline. It’s selling high on Hader, AND using the massive prospect haul to better the team immediately, THIS YEAR. Sellers and buyers at the same time. Pen arms no matter how awesome(Hader)can be replaced with pen arms that can still close out the win. Some of the top prospects received can be used to acquire a top player or two to help win THIS year and the future. This eliminates possible injury and even slight regression from Hader being a concern moving forward.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#43

Posted: July 06, 2019, 1:13 PM Post
Posts: 2201
Brew crew 92 said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
I get that its disappointing the brewers aren't 20 games over 500 and they have plenty if warts, but they are still a 1st place team in a deep division. For what they did over the offseason, it would be foolish at this point to sell, particularly with Hader.

Ride it out, if they tank over the next few weeks then they should look long and hard at trading guys like Moose and Grandal, maybe some other relievers who are actually having good years like Albers...Hader has too much team friendly control left for the brewers to ever actually get equal value in return by dealing him now - maybe they revisit that option 2 offseasons from now.

Odds are much higher that they add, not sell, by july 31st.


The selling high on Hader is NOT being a seller at the deadline. It’s selling high on Hader, AND using the massive prospect haul to better the team immediately, THIS YEAR. Sellers and buyers at the same time. Pen arms no matter how awesome(Hader)can be replaced with pen arms that can still close out the win. Some of the top prospects received can be used to acquire a top player or two to help win THIS year and the future. This eliminates possible injury and even slight regression from Hader being a concern moving forward.


I don't see this scenario playing out in three weeks..... again, maybe the offseason when tine isn't as much a factor.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#44

Posted: July 06, 2019, 1:18 PM Post
Posts: 3060
rickh150 said:
What team gives them enough back? The package would have to be similar in prospects to what OKC received in picks from the Clippers for George. It would also HAVE to be after this season, since we still have a good shot at the postseason and Wold Series with one year players Moose and Grandal.


Teams with the prospects and the need for Hader at this year’s deadline:

1.) Twins
2.) Astros
3.) Rays
4.) Braves
5.) Dodgers


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#45

Posted: July 06, 2019, 1:27 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Brew crew 92 said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
I get that its disappointing the brewers aren't 20 games over 500 and they have plenty if warts, but they are still a 1st place team in a deep division. For what they did over the offseason, it would be foolish at this point to sell, particularly with Hader.

Ride it out, if they tank over the next few weeks then they should look long and hard at trading guys like Moose and Grandal, maybe some other relievers who are actually having good years like Albers...Hader has too much team friendly control left for the brewers to ever actually get equal value in return by dealing him now - maybe they revisit that option 2 offseasons from now.

Odds are much higher that they add, not sell, by july 31st.


The selling high on Hader is NOT being a seller at the deadline. It’s selling high on Hader, AND using the massive prospect haul to better the team immediately, THIS YEAR. Sellers and buyers at the same time. Pen arms no matter how awesome(Hader)can be replaced with pen arms that can still close out the win. Some of the top prospects received can be used to acquire a top player or two to help win THIS year and the future. This eliminates possible injury and even slight regression from Hader being a concern moving forward.

That's not how it works though. All these prospects aren't going to help the MLB team immediately. What will happen is we'll lose Hader in the pen making our MLB team much worse while the organziation as a whlole improves its overall quality/depth. Those are two very different things. Best case scenario is we'd get 1 player back in the package who either has some MLB experience or are ready and just need that opportunity (if this is the case it's going to have to be a stud rotation arm or a pen arm - and it took forever to get a stud bat in Hiura at this level as Stearns wants vets for the stretch/playoffs, not rookies unless they're in the pen like Woodruff/Burnes).


Last edited by Wahoo Maniac on July 06, 2019, 1:28 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#46

Posted: July 06, 2019, 1:28 PM Post
Posts: 765
RollieTime said:
trwi7 said:
ThisIsMyCrew said:
There is zero incentive to trading him.


Sure there is. Relievers are so volatile. Edwin Diaz was every bit as good as Hader was last year, if not better and now he has an ERA pushing 6 with a FIP of around 4 and is giving up hard contact nearly half the time. Same is true for Blake Treinen and Jose Leclerc and Jose Alvarado and Jeurys Familia and Joakim Soria and Jeremy Jeffress and Dellin Betances.


Yup. I suggested trading Knebel the last two offseasons now and it really would of been wise to do so. He was bad most of last season before the final month. He probably regained most of his value back by being so dominant late in the year and in the postseason. Now he is missing all of this season.

For the Brewers to have continued success, they need to make moves to keep filtering young talent into the organization. Trading relief pitchers after career years is a fantastic way of doing that. Moving guys like Tyler Thornburg, Knebel, and Hader is something the Brewers should continue exploring each and every offseason. With Hader’s odd throwing motion and how hard he pitches, he is definitely a TJ candidate in his career. If he needs TJ surgery in June of next year and can’t pitch in the postseason for us in 2020 and misses all of 2021 as well, now you’re down to 2 years of control and his value at rock bottom. The window of opportunity to cash in on him would be gone.

There’s a lot to consider in regards of what to do with Hader.


Sure! Maybe in the off-season. The team is in first place right now in the NL Central. Why would we trade our best pitcher who is and will be a huge part of our success. I get the concept of trading to fill the pipeline. But how often are we talking about guys who never make it? How many miserable years we have had missing the playoffs. Now a first place team on July 6th and we want to sell off our best pitcher, who will get CY Young votes. Seems crazy to me.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#47

Posted: July 06, 2019, 1:35 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
RollieTime said:
trwi7 said:
ThisIsMyCrew said:
There is zero incentive to trading him.


Sure there is. Relievers are so volatile. Edwin Diaz was every bit as good as Hader was last year, if not better and now he has an ERA pushing 6 with a FIP of around 4 and is giving up hard contact nearly half the time. Same is true for Blake Treinen and Jose Leclerc and Jose Alvarado and Jeurys Familia and Joakim Soria and Jeremy Jeffress and Dellin Betances.


Yup. I suggested trading Knebel the last two offseasons now and it really would of been wise to do so. He was bad most of last season before the final month. He probably regained most of his value back by being so dominant late in the year and in the postseason. Now he is missing all of this season.

For the Brewers to have continued success, they need to make moves to keep filtering young talent into the organization. Trading relief pitchers after career years is a fantastic way of doing that. Moving guys like Tyler Thornburg, Knebel, and Hader is something the Brewers should continue exploring each and every offseason. With Hader’s odd throwing motion and how hard he pitches, he is definitely a TJ candidate in his career. If he needs TJ surgery in June of next year and can’t pitch in the postseason for us in 2020 and misses all of 2021 as well, now you’re down to 2 years of control and his value at rock bottom. The window of opportunity to cash in on him would be gone.

There’s a lot to consider in regards of what to do with Hader.

After Knebel's amazing 2017 why would the Brewers trade him heading into 2018 when he still had 4yrs control with a super competitive team in the hunt for a ring? That's the absolute worst time to trade someone like Knebel. Also, he had some injuries throughout 2018 starting in April but when he was healthy he was dominant like he was in 2017. Thornburg was traded during a time when the Brewers were rebuilding and not capable of making a deep run. It was the perfect time to trade him to add to the org and help build its foundation in the near and distant future (Shaw at MLB level filling 3b spot for years to come and Dubon in the minors). That's what Thornburg brought back with 2yrs control and less success/worst stuff than Knebel and certainly nowhere near the success of Hader. Knebel will be ready for next season with 2yrs control and a still very competitive team capable of that deep run. Even if he's traded before 2021 with 1yr control he'll still bring back a great return (assuming he's solid next year as it usually takes a year after TJ to settle back in) while giving us an excellent performance at the end of 2018 and hopefully helping the team next year as well. It's win/win.

The Brewers could also extend him a couple years giving them more time to use him and trade him with more control.

Hader also doesn't have an odd throwing motion that makes him susceptible to TJ and he sits between 93-97 depending how rested he is as opposed to someone who consistently throws 98-100. I guess I just don't understand the logic behind pushing for a Hader trade now while remaining silent on Yelich given he'll have 3yrs control after this year for like 42M or something. What if he regresses? What if he tears is ACL like Dubon did? Are we only having this conversation because Hader is a reliever?


Last edited by Wahoo Maniac on July 06, 2019, 1:41 PM, edited 2 times in total.

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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#48

Posted: July 06, 2019, 1:36 PM Post
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Posts: 5863
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Brew crew 92 said:
rickh150 said:
What team gives them enough back? The package would have to be similar in prospects to what OKC received in picks from the Clippers for George. It would also HAVE to be after this season, since we still have a good shot at the postseason and Wold Series with one year players Moose and Grandal.


Teams with the prospects and the need for Hader at this year’s deadline:

1.) Twins
2.) Astros
3.) Rays
4.) Braves
5.) Dodgers



You can cross off the Rays, Twins, and Braves. These type of moves are things they don't normally do especially the Rays.

That leaves you with the Astros and the Dodgers. I don't see the Dodgers going out and paying what it would cost to acquire Hader and I don't see the Astros doing it either.

Again it is way too early to be trading Hader. This maybe an off season move but is probably more of a 2021 move. I just don't see a team trading away the talent needed for the Brewers to make a trade. This is the same issue the Angels had with Trout. There is basically no team out there that will even offer the amount of value to fulfill the kind of trade that would be needed.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#49

Posted: July 07, 2019, 8:03 AM Post
Posts: 80
I know it doesn't seem to matter, because we want the best deal. But if does happen , definitely prefer sending him to AL.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#50

Posted: July 07, 2019, 8:23 AM Post
Posts: 3060
nate82 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
rickh150 said:
What team gives them enough back? The package would have to be similar in prospects to what OKC received in picks from the Clippers for George. It would also HAVE to be after this season, since we still have a good shot at the postseason and Wold Series with one year players Moose and Grandal.


Teams with the prospects and the need for Hader at this year’s deadline:

1.) Twins
2.) Astros
3.) Rays
4.) Braves
5.) Dodgers



You can cross off the Rays, Twins, and Braves. These type of moves are things they don't normally do especially the Rays.

That leaves you with the Astros and the Dodgers. I don't see the Dodgers going out and paying what it would cost to acquire Hader and I don't see the Astros doing it either.

Again it is way too early to be trading Hader. This maybe an off season move but is probably more of a 2021 move. I just don't see a team trading away the talent needed for the Brewers to make a trade. This is the same issue the Angels had with Trout. There is basically no team out there that will even offer the amount of value to fulfill the kind of trade that would be needed.


Then we take what we’d get with 3 1/2 yrs of control, for 2 reasons:

Protect from injury and regression, this is being overlooked way to much in my opinion, especially regression. Even if there’s slight regression his value goes down substantially, right now his overwhelming dominant aura adds to his value, imo.

Timing > the players we get back will/can help us THIS year and next. Waiting costs us wins.

So the prospect package would be closer to the 3 1/2 year control but team would get the 4 1/2.

You don’t know that the Rays Twins Braves wouldn’t be in. There’s never been a pen arm with the control like Hader On the market in the history of baseball.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#51

Posted: July 08, 2019, 6:12 AM Post
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Posts: 7033
nate82 said:
You can cross off the Rays, Twins, and Braves. These type of moves are things they don't normally do especially the Rays.

The Twins front office is now led by Derek Falvey. The Twins have done a masterful job building a competitive roster since his hire in the Fall of 2016. Falvey and Stearns were with the Cleveland Indians at the same time in 2012 (they were co-directors of baseball operations), with Stearns reportedly focused on player contracts, data analysis, and strategy, while Falvey worked on player acquisitions. During 2015-2016 Falvey was the Indians Asst. GM, which included pulling off the Andrew Miller trade at the deadline in 2016 (trading away Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller, and J.P. Feyereisen) on their way to playing in the World Series. That was the same July that the Brewers and Indians came to terms on a Jonathan Lucroy deal that was ultimately nixed by Lucroy.

I wouldn’t completely count out the Twins as a team that may make some big trade headlines at some point. They have the prospect inventory to do it, and if Falvey and company believe they have a legitimate chance to play for the World Series than they may be incentivized to make a big splash.

Regarding the Dodgers (mentioned earlier), one player I would love to pry from them is Wisconsin native SS Gavin Lux. He seems on the path to becoming a star and is likely only a year away from making his major league debut.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#52

Posted: July 08, 2019, 7:29 AM Post
Posts: 3060
Eye Black said:
nate82 said:
You can cross off the Rays, Twins, and Braves. These type of moves are things they don't normally do especially the Rays.

The Twins front office is now led by Derek Falvey. The Twins have done a masterful job building a competitive roster since his hire in the Fall of 2016. Falvey and Stearns were with the Cleveland Indians at the same time in 2012 (they were co-directors of baseball operations), with Stearns reportedly focused on player contracts, data analysis, and strategy, while Falvey worked on player acquisitions. During 2015-2016 Falvey was the Indians Asst. GM, which included pulling off the Andrew Miller trade at the deadline in 2016 (trading away Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller, and J.P. Feyereisen) on their way to playing in the World Series. That was the same July that the Brewers and Indians came to terms on a Jonathan Lucroy deal that was ultimately nixed by Lucroy.

I wouldn’t completely count out the Twins as a team that may make some big trade headlines at some point. They have the prospect inventory to do it, and if Falvey and company believe they have a legitimate chance to play for the World Series than they may be incentivized to make a big splash.

Regarding the Dodgers (mentioned earlier), one player I would love to pry from them is Wisconsin native SS Gavin Lux. He seems on the path to becoming a star and is likely only a year away from making his major league debut.


Funny timing with your post, and my post in the sell thread. But I must say, IF we trade Hader I hope it’s to an American League team, but the best deal should take precedence.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#53

Posted: July 08, 2019, 7:43 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Brew crew 92 said:
Timing > the players we get back will/can help us THIS year and next. Waiting costs us wins.

I have to ask, given you keep pounding on this, and I'm not speaking about the future because that's the point of the trade, to land multiple top tier prospects to help the team in the future. But if we're losing Hader in the pen "this year" then how do we upgrade that loss "this year" via the trade?


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#54

Posted: July 08, 2019, 7:43 AM Post
Posts: 13182
It would take some insane perfect package to move Hader. You are either trading him and starting a full-blown rebuild or somehow a contending team is sending so much can't miss AA-AAA talent it actually would make sense. Hader is an essential piece to us contending short term I just can't fathom them trading him. The Astros are probably the only team that has the kind of insane prospects that trading a few off for Hader wouldn't deplete their system and maybe make sense. The only other two teams I could see are the Dodgers or Braves.

Dodgers are probably the most logical team because they have to be getting desperate to win and Hader could honestly put them over the top. However that much control of Hader is arguably worth one of the premier prospects in the game...not sure the Dodgers possess that. The Astros have the prospects, no doubt, but they may not be that desperate to trade away their reinforcements. Braves are an interesting possibility.

It is so hard to match up on a trade of such magnitude. There are arguably only a handful of teams with the prospects to do it that would want him. Add in the fact we are competing and have a bright short term future the trade would have to be not only good, but likely be AA-AAA elite talent so we could have a quick turnaround.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#55

Posted: July 08, 2019, 8:13 AM Post
Posts: 3060
Wahoo Maniac said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Timing > the players we get back will/can help us THIS year and next. Waiting costs us wins.

I have to ask, given you keep pounding on this, and I'm not speaking about the future because that's the point of the trade, to land multiple top tier prospects to help the team in the future. But if we're losing Hader in the pen "this year" then how do we upgrade that loss "this year" via the trade?


Example:

Acquire Will Smith from the Giants.
Smith > Supek & Stokes & Griep

Acquire Jake Diekman from KC.
Diekman > Olzyck

Claudio optioned for Diekman. I then also call up D Williams and IF he excels, I send Burnes down to start.

We could win just as many games with this bullpen than if we had Hader, I believe. But if that’s not a good enough back end Trade for Colome, at least we’d have him next year too.

The players given up in these trades are far inferior to the players acquired by selling Hader. Imo.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#56

Posted: July 08, 2019, 8:13 AM Post
Posts: 5600
Location: New Berlin, WI
MrTPlush said:
Dodgers are probably the most logical team because they have to be getting desperate to win and Hader could honestly put them over the top. However that much control of Hader is arguably worth one of the premier prospects in the game...not sure the Dodgers possess that. The Astros have the prospects, no doubt, but they may not be that desperate to trade away their reinforcements. Braves are an interesting possibility.


This won't happen, but for pure speculation purposes...I think something like Verdugo + Lux + Smith could be interesting, also add in them taking Braun and his contract. No way the Dodgers would be willing to give that up, but I think it has to be something like that to give up Hader. All those guys are either MLB ready or in the upper minors and very close to MLB ready.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#57

Posted: July 08, 2019, 8:19 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Brew crew 92 said:
Wahoo Maniac said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Timing > the players we get back will/can help us THIS year and next. Waiting costs us wins.

I have to ask, given you keep pounding on this, and I'm not speaking about the future because that's the point of the trade, to land multiple top tier prospects to help the team in the future. But if we're losing Hader in the pen "this year" then how do we upgrade that loss "this year" via the trade?


Example:

Acquire Will Smith from the Giants.
Smith > Supek & Stokes & Griep

Acquire Jake Diekman from KC.
Diekman > Olzyck

Claudio optioned for Diekman. I then also call up D Williams and IF he excels, I send Burnes down to start.

We could win just as many games with this bullpen than if we had Hader, I believe. But if that’s not a good enough back end Trade for Colome, at least we’d have him next year too.

The players given up in these trades are far inferior to the players acquired by selling Hader. Imo.

Maybe I didn't accurately phrase my question. It was in regard to you saying previously that trading Hader, not anybody else, that can help this team win now. That's who I was referring to. Solely trading Hader. Stearns is going to acquire pen arms regardless at the deadline even with Hader still here. But if you lose Hader what exactly are we acquiring from that specific trade that makes us better "this year"? Because that's what you're said previously...unless I somehow misinterpreted everything


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#58

Posted: July 08, 2019, 8:32 AM Post
Posts: 3060
What makes us better this year by trading hader for prospects is:

More willing to give up prospects to improve this year because we have the prospect haul coming back from Hader. And maybe a prospect we get back is ML ready. It wouldn’t in my trade proposal but, Stearns could get a ML ready prospect back.

If this trade were made early enough, he might have time to trade a prospect or two received for Hader for immediate help too.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#59

Posted: July 08, 2019, 9:32 AM Post
Posts: 13182
Brew crew 92 said:
What makes us better this year by trading hader for prospects is:

More willing to give up prospects to improve this year because we have the prospect haul coming back from Hader. And maybe a prospect we get back is ML ready. It wouldn’t in my trade proposal but, Stearns could get a ML ready prospect back.

If this trade were made early enough, he might have time to trade a prospect or two received for Hader for immediate help too.


So essentially you want to walk 5 steps back and then trade the prospects to move forward 5 steps.

Since our bullpen has arguably had quite the problems I don't see how rearranging deck chairs is going to help. Yeah, you could have some crazy theory on how we can be just as good and keep a few prospects to boot...but that is the kind of theory that isn't really reality.

Might as well stick the prospects out there and hope we hit it big.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#60

Posted: July 08, 2019, 9:57 AM Post
Posts: 4947
[quote="brewers888"]This team doesn't look like a true contender and with Moustakas and Grandal likely gone after the season we have many holes to fill. With a less than stacked farm system and only Hiura looking to be an impact offensive force it may be time to consider cashing in one of our two biggest assets and move Hader if we can get a huge package in return.

To be honest I would even consider moving Yelich but what do you guys think of the possibility of moving Hader. We should only do this if we can get a great return but I think its something we should consider. Teams like Houston, Tampa, and Atlanta have the need and the farm systems to make such a deal.[/quote

https://tenor.com/0avE.gif


Last edited by brewcrewdue80 on July 08, 2019, 10:00 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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