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Is it time to consider moving Hader

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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#61

Posted: July 08, 2019, 9:59 AM Post
Posts: 3060
MrTPlush said:
Brew crew 92 said:
What makes us better this year by trading hader for prospects is:

More willing to give up prospects to improve this year because we have the prospect haul coming back from Hader. And maybe a prospect we get back is ML ready. It wouldn’t in my trade proposal but, Stearns could get a ML ready prospect back.

If this trade were made early enough, he might have time to trade a prospect or two received for Hader for immediate help too.


So essentially you want to walk 5 steps back and then trade the prospects to move forward 5 steps.

Since our bullpen has arguably had quite the problems I don't see how rearranging deck chairs is going to help. Yeah, you could have some crazy theory on how we can be just as good and keep a few prospects to boot...but that is the kind of theory that isn't really reality.

Might as well stick the prospects out there and hope we hit it big.


Trade Hader = abundance of good to great prospects added

Replace Hader with inferior but multiple quality pen arms giving us more depth in the pen, and a good closer in Smith, And or Colome or whoever.

I would rather have multiple all star type players at positions other than fireman(admittedly the best there is). Trading hader strengthens the overall team.

No worries of injuries or regression even if slight, from Hader a bonus.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#62

Posted: July 08, 2019, 10:52 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Stearns is acquiring pen arms with Hader still here. There's no way in getting around that. Removing Hader from the pen, even with others being acquired, makes us worse "this year". Trading Hader now makes the org as a whole better but not the MLB team. The MLB team wouldn't be better until most likely 2021 as his return might need some experience at the MLB level before it clicks given you prefer it being all prospects.

I doubt Stearns is worried about parting with prospects this deadline to make the team better since we don't have many impact prospects to begin with and the only FA are Moose/Grandal/Chacin/Thames (if options are declined) so it's not like a bunch of these prospects are going to be needed to backfill spots. If Shaw bounces back he replaces Moose so that's an internal fill along with Nottingham pairing with Pina to replace Grandal. Or they resign Grandal making Nottingham available to move. Or Moose is resigned and Shaw backfills Thames spot internally. Dubon either replaces Saladino or starts over Arcia. All other prospects can easily be traded.

Stearns knows he has Hader and Yelich sitting in his back pocket to immediately improve the upper minors overnight while also most likely adding young, very controllable MLB players.

Unless LAD parts with Verdugo, Lux to start or ATL parts with Riley or Fried + multiple other top prospects then Hader isn't going anywhere.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#63

Posted: July 08, 2019, 11:17 AM Post
Posts: 3060
Wahoo Maniac said:
Stearns is acquiring pen arms with Hader still here. There's no way in getting around that. Removing Hader from the pen, even with others being acquired, makes us worse "this year". Trading Hader now makes the org as a whole better but not the MLB team. The MLB team wouldn't be better until most likely 2021 as his return might need some experience at the MLB level before it clicks given you prefer it being all prospects.

I doubt Stearns is worried about parting with prospects this deadline to make the team better since we don't have many impact prospects to begin with and the only FA are Moose/Grandal/Chacin/Thames (if options are declined) so it's not like a bunch of these prospects are going to be needed to backfill spots. If Shaw bounces back he replaces Moose so that's an internal fill along with Nottingham pairing with Pina to replace Grandal. Or they resign Grandal making Nottingham available to move. Or Moose is resigned and Shaw backfills Thames spot internally. Dubon either replaces Saladino or starts over Arcia. All other prospects can easily be traded.

Stearns knows he has Hader and Yelich sitting in his back pocket to immediately improve the upper minors overnight while also most likely adding young, very controllable MLB players.

Unless LAD parts with Verdugo, Lux to start or ATL parts with Riley or Fried + multiple other top prospects then Hader isn't going anywhere.


I’d put the odds of a Hader Trade at 50% at either this deadline or next years. I’m hoping it’s this year for the reasons I’ve already given. But I’d be ok with next year too. I will say, I believe Stearns will show us what he’s really capable of as a GM, over this next 2 1/2 years more than the last 3 1/2.

I’m hoping for a Hader Trade if for no other reason than most other GMs wouldn’t, And Stearns, imo, needs to do his design work differently than any other GM, because of our payroll being chronically lower than it should, based upon our unarguably best fans in baseball, and never having won a title in our 50 year existence.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#64

Posted: July 08, 2019, 11:29 AM Post
Posts: 5600
Location: New Berlin, WI
Brew crew 92 said:
I’d put the odds of a Hader Trade at 50% at either this deadline or next years.


I'd put it at about 0.1% this year and maybe 1-2% next year. I'd put the odds of the Brewers winning the world series one of the next two years higher than a Josh Hader trade.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#65

Posted: July 08, 2019, 11:58 AM Post
Posts: 13182
Brew crew 92 said:
I’d put the odds of a Hader Trade at 50% at either this deadline or next years.


HighHeat, is that you?

Yes - 50%
No - 50%

Real bold cotton. Haha regardless 50% seems a bit extreme. While we are contending trading away someone with so much control and is so important is really unlikely. It is a nice theory and it has its place in armchair GM world, but it is pretty rare in actuality.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#66

Posted: July 08, 2019, 12:46 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Hader's not being traded at a deadline until he has 1.5yrs remaining or is a rental. Both cases are years down the road


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#67

Posted: July 08, 2019, 1:13 PM Post
Posts: 5197
Location: Madison, WI
I just do not foresee this as even a discussion right now with so much control left, under 1% this year and it only goes up slightly until he's into his 2nd to last year.

I mean, what's the goal? Get 3-4 prospects back where hopefully one is as good as him? And then trade that guy 1.5 years into him being good for more prospects and hope one of them is good?


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#68

Posted: July 08, 2019, 1:56 PM Post
Posts: 660
tmwiese55 said:
I just do not foresee this as even a discussion right now with so much control left, under 1% this year and it only goes up slightly until he's into his 2nd to last year.

I mean, what's the goal? Get 3-4 prospects back where hopefully one is as good as him? And then trade that guy 1.5 years into him being good for more prospects and hope one of them is good?


I would have to agree with this. Even if we find ourselves down 5-6 games at the deadline in a few weeks, it's almost impossible to see a scenario in which a team would be willing to cough up the prospect capital that would be needed for Stearns to even consider moving a guy like Hader that has that much team control and is arguably the most dynamic pen arm in baseball right now. I think it would take a package in the range of:

Braves: Pache, Anderson and Allard
Astros: Whitley and either Tucker/Alvarez
Dodgers: Verdugo, Ruiz and May (maybe we send Braun back in the deal)
Twins: Kirilloff, Graterol and Balazovic

And, I doubt any of those teams would give up anything remotely close to those prospect packages - even for someone as dominant and with that amount of team control as Hader.

Fun to think about though.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#69

Posted: July 08, 2019, 2:00 PM Post
Posts: 3060
tmwiese55 said:
I just do not foresee this as even a discussion right now with so much control left, under 1% this year and it only goes up slightly until he's into his 2nd to last year.

I mean, what's the goal? Get 3-4 prospects back where hopefully one is as good as him? And then trade that guy 1.5 years into him being good for more prospects and hope one of them is good?


Are you being serious with the < 1%?

And not even worthy of discussion?

I Trust Stearns with his track record of trades to be able to acquire MULTIPLE starters on a championship type club, maybe a prospect that turns into an Ace? Maybe it’s a couple all-stars? Maybe he takes 2 or 3 of the 4 or 5 top prospects and acquire’s a stud pitcher?

I haven’t heard much talk(outside of 1 poster) about what happens if Hader regresses or gets injured, then what?

There’s been a lot of talk on this site over the years of having a GM able to have the courage to sell high on a popular player at his peak.

Hader is the best pen arm in the world, but it’s still a PEN arm, I believe multiple all-star position players are more valuable and so are stud starters.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#70

Posted: July 08, 2019, 2:09 PM Post
Posts: 5600
Location: New Berlin, WI
Brew crew 92 said:
tmwiese55 said:
I just do not foresee this as even a discussion right now with so much control left, under 1% this year and it only goes up slightly until he's into his 2nd to last year.

I mean, what's the goal? Get 3-4 prospects back where hopefully one is as good as him? And then trade that guy 1.5 years into him being good for more prospects and hope one of them is good?


Are you being serious with the < 1%?

And not even worthy of discussion?

I Trust Stearns with his track record of trades to be able to acquire MULTIPLE starters on a championship type club, maybe a prospect that turns into an Ace? Maybe it’s a couple all-stars? Maybe he takes 2 or 3 of the 4 or 5 top prospects and acquire’s a stud pitcher?

I haven’t heard much talk(outside of 1 poster) about what happens if Hader regresses or gets injured, then what?

There’s been a lot of talk on this site over the years of having a GM able to have the courage to sell high on a popular player at his peak.

Hader is the best pen arm in the world, but it’s still a PEN arm, I believe multiple all-star position players are more valuable and so are stud starters.


When is the last time a unanimous top 5 reliever in baseball was traded with more than 3 years of team control left on their rookie deal? Hence where the <1% comes in...


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#71

Posted: July 08, 2019, 2:26 PM Post
Posts: 3060
KeithStone53151 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
tmwiese55 said:
I just do not foresee this as even a discussion right now with so much control left, under 1% this year and it only goes up slightly until he's into his 2nd to last year.

I mean, what's the goal? Get 3-4 prospects back where hopefully one is as good as him? And then trade that guy 1.5 years into him being good for more prospects and hope one of them is good?


Are you being serious with the < 1%?

And not even worthy of discussion?

I Trust Stearns with his track record of trades to be able to acquire MULTIPLE starters on a championship type club, maybe a prospect that turns into an Ace? Maybe it’s a couple all-stars? Maybe he takes 2 or 3 of the 4 or 5 top prospects and acquire’s a stud pitcher?

I haven’t heard much talk(outside of 1 poster) about what happens if Hader regresses or gets injured, then what?

There’s been a lot of talk on this site over the years of having a GM able to have the courage to sell high on a popular player at his peak.

Hader is the best pen arm in the world, but it’s still a PEN arm, I believe multiple all-star position players are more valuable and so are stud starters.


When is the last time a unanimous top 5 reliever in baseball was traded with more than 3 years of team control left on their rookie deal? Hence where the <1% comes in...


Well, some GM needs to create a new Precedent, i’m hoping against hope that it’s ours.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#72

Posted: July 08, 2019, 2:29 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 14183
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Hader isn’t going anywhere and if you’re a win-now type of a mindset it really makes no sense no matter how many posts you use to justify it. Surrounding Hader with other quality pen arms would be the correct approach to do.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#73

Posted: July 08, 2019, 2:40 PM Post
Posts: 4947
Hader via JAWS on BRef is already 513th all-time for Relievers. And you can likely pencil him in to be top 375 by season's end. He's on a HOF arch at the moment. You never trade that, I dont care if its Vlad Jr. Extension talks should be considered after this season. You at least lock up his salary and give an extra 2 years control. Late inning. RP position solved for another 6years.

Any poster here that even agreed to a Hader trade in this thread should be temporarily banned until after the trade deadline. Ya'll are that ridiculous to bring that idea here.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#74

Posted: July 08, 2019, 2:57 PM Post
Posts: 3060
brewcrewdue80 said:
Hader via JAWS on BRef is already 513th all-time for Relievers. And you can likely pencil him in to be top 375 by season's end. He's on a HOF arch at the moment. You never trade that, I dont care if its Vlad Jr. Extension talks should be considered after this season. You at least lock up his salary and give an extra 2 years control. Late inning. RP position solved for another 6years.

Any poster here that even agreed to a Hader trade in this thread should be temporarily banned until after the trade deadline. Ya'll are that ridiculous to bring that idea here.


Funny post.

Never in a trillion lifetimes, should he or would he extend Hader, way too high an injury risk over the 6 years. He’s a pitcher that throws nothing but fastballs, and it’s been shown that fastballs are hardest on the elbow. I’ll stop there.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#75

Posted: July 08, 2019, 3:15 PM Post
Posts: 5197
Location: Madison, WI
Brew crew 92 said:
tmwiese55 said:
I just do not foresee this as even a discussion right now with so much control left, under 1% this year and it only goes up slightly until he's into his 2nd to last year.

I mean, what's the goal? Get 3-4 prospects back where hopefully one is as good as him? And then trade that guy 1.5 years into him being good for more prospects and hope one of them is good?


Are you being serious with the < 1%?

And not even worthy of discussion?

I Trust Stearns with his track record of trades to be able to acquire MULTIPLE starters on a championship type club, maybe a prospect that turns into an Ace? Maybe it’s a couple all-stars? Maybe he takes 2 or 3 of the 4 or 5 top prospects and acquire’s a stud pitcher?

I haven’t heard much talk(outside of 1 poster) about what happens if Hader regresses or gets injured, then what?

There’s been a lot of talk on this site over the years of having a GM able to have the courage to sell high on a popular player at his peak.

Hader is the best pen arm in the world, but it’s still a PEN arm, I believe multiple all-star position players are more valuable and so are stud starters.


Sorry, no way another team is going to give up that package with multiple all stars or an Ace pitcher. That's why it's less than 1%. I of course agree all star position players and a true ace are more valuable, but that's also why no one is going to give that to you.

What happens if injured, yea same goes for every player on the team. So, are we just going to perpetually trade good players as soon as they show they're good (but prior to injury) to get more prospects who we hope become good so we can trade for more prospects. Also, the prospects you trade for can also get hurt BTW. This is a discussion for when he gets to 2 years left and/or the team is not trying to win anymore.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#76

Posted: July 08, 2019, 3:22 PM Post
Posts: 3060
tmwiese55 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
tmwiese55 said:
I just do not foresee this as even a discussion right now with so much control left, under 1% this year and it only goes up slightly until he's into his 2nd to last year.

I mean, what's the goal? Get 3-4 prospects back where hopefully one is as good as him? And then trade that guy 1.5 years into him being good for more prospects and hope one of them is good?


Are you being serious with the < 1%?

And not even worthy of discussion?

I Trust Stearns with his track record of trades to be able to acquire MULTIPLE starters on a championship type club, maybe a prospect that turns into an Ace? Maybe it’s a couple all-stars? Maybe he takes 2 or 3 of the 4 or 5 top prospects and acquire’s a stud pitcher?

I haven’t heard much talk(outside of 1 poster) about what happens if Hader regresses or gets injured, then what?

There’s been a lot of talk on this site over the years of having a GM able to have the courage to sell high on a popular player at his peak.

Hader is the best pen arm in the world, but it’s still a PEN arm, I believe multiple all-star position players are more valuable and so are stud starters.


Sorry, no way another team is going to give up that package with multiple all stars or an Ace pitcher. That's why it's less than 1%. I of course agree all star position players and a true ace are more valuable, but that's also why no one is going to give that to you.

What happens if injured, yea same goes for every player on the team.


Prospects.

I trust Stearns to get enough prospect value to improve the team substantially or he won’t do it.

Pitchers have TJ, position players not so much.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#77

Posted: July 08, 2019, 3:29 PM Post
Posts: 4947
Brew crew 92 said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Hader via JAWS on BRef is already 513th all-time for Relievers. And you can likely pencil him in to be top 375 by season's end. He's on a HOF arch at the moment. You never trade that, I dont care if its Vlad Jr. Extension talks should be considered after this season. You at least lock up his salary and give an extra 2 years control. Late inning. RP position solved for another 6years.

Any poster here that even agreed to a Hader trade in this thread should be temporarily banned until after the trade deadline. Ya'll are that ridiculous to bring that idea here.


Funny post.

Never in a trillion lifetimes, should he or would he extend Hader, way too high an injury risk over the 6 years. He’s a pitcher that throws nothing but fastballs, and it’s been shown that fastballs are hardest on the elbow. I’ll stop there.


How's that Fastball injury rate working for Aroldis Chapman? You do know Hader can throw more than just fbs right? He's 25. Not 31. Nobody you replace him with will be near ad good as him. Now you waste 7-14million a year paying for mediocre replacements. Makes sense with the amount of whining already on how record payroll is still being cheap.


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#78

Posted: July 08, 2019, 3:31 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 14183
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Brew crew 92 said:
Prospects.

I trust Stearns to get enough prospect value to improve the team substantially or he won’t do it. .


Name a package worthy of Hader right now. Also, prospects don’t improve your major league club. They can, but they often don’t.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#79

Posted: July 08, 2019, 3:37 PM Post
Posts: 5197
Location: Madison, WI
Prospects.

I trust Stearns to get enough prospect value to improve the team substantially or he won’t do it.

Pitchers have TJ, position players not so much.[/quote]



Position players tear their achilles and ACLs.

So prospects, you get 4 back. Chances are 1 ends up good, at best 2. And chances are even that good 1 is never as good as Hader currently is. But then what do you do when that person proves he's good? Trade him with 4.5 years of control left for to try and repeat the process again until you're left with nothing?


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Offline  Re: Is it time to consider moving Hader
#80

Posted: July 08, 2019, 3:55 PM Post
Posts: 3060
tmwiese55 said:
Prospects.

I trust Stearns to get enough prospect value to improve the team substantially or he won’t do it.

Pitchers have TJ, position players not so much.




Position players tear their achilles and ACLs.

So prospects, you get 4 back. Chances are 1 ends up good, at best 2. And chances are even that good 1 is never as good as Hader currently is. But then what do you do when that person proves he's good? Trade him with 4.5 years of control left for to try and repeat the process again until you're left with nothing?[/quote]

Depends, if it’s the Twins I get 5 back, a couple I package for my biggest need. A couple more I package for another need.


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