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Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need

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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#21

Posted: July 05, 2019, 5:45 PM Post
Posts: 1392
wntrtxn21 said:
Wahoo Maniac said:
I don't think replacing Pina is an answer. He has 19 starts and we've played 88 games. He has 11 pinch hit attempts this year. Whoever is the backup catcher isn't seeing consistent PT with Grandal, nor should they, so expecting someone at a notoriously bad hitting position to start once per week and barely pinch hit to produce a quality stat line is unrealistic. It's more about defense at that point. Plus the analytics suggest Pina is unlucky this year (barrel and hard hit % up, BB rate up, BABIP significantly down plus the eye test says he's been having quality ABs too).

Cain's thumb is clearly an issue, especially given the type of hitter he is, but there's only so many spots to upgrade so you can't do anything about it other than to give Gamel some of his PT or keep him out of the leadoff spot until he figures out a way to be solid playing through it. I'm more than comfortable with Saladino replacing Perez but Dubon should have been up starting for July as if he was performing then Arcia could be moved for a piece that can help the MLB team given he still has plenty of value at his position. Even if Dubon has to replace Saladino so be it but Dubon needs to be up given his plus bat potential. I keep Aguilar too. The biggest issue is his power hasn't been there. Since April 29 he's posted a 260/378 BA/OBP and since May 1 it's been 237/367. He has an excellent BB rate and OBP but he's just not hitting for XB. Hopefully that changes in the 2nd half as he's plenty capable of it.

The current problem isn't a lack of offensive talent. They're just slumping as an entire unit at the same time. I think Hiura ends up in the leadoff spot actually with Yelich, Moose, Grandal following (or Braun mixed in between lefties if need to break it up).


You're right about Cain and until he can get healthy, Gamel might be a better option. I don't like Hiura at the leadoff because he Ks too much. Right now he's at 35% K rate. I'd rather see Grandal in an RBI spot so right now CC has little to choose from at the leadoff spot.


I really don't care how much your leadoff hitter K's. I think it's least important leading off than just about anywhere else in the lineup. As long as he can get on base at a decent clip, I don't really care about his K's.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#22

Posted: July 05, 2019, 6:05 PM Post
Posts: 1392
Wahoo Maniac said:
Brew crew 92 said:
We’ll know soon, what the crew already believes, that Houser is gonna be a stud in the rotation, he’s way ahead of Burnes/peralta with the command of his devastating 4 pitch mix.

Disagree. Houser's a pen arm; he's merely filling in as a rotation arm because he's capable of that.



We don't know if Houser is a pen arm or a starter yet. I feel pretty confident saying he's not an ace, though that'd be 6 we'd have if he were. But he DOES have a pretty nice 4 pitch mix(not devastating, but solid). Good velocity. He's got a BABIP against him of .425 in his stats and he's only started 4 games and has started throughout his minor league career.

I'd leave him out there for the time being. Otherwise, given the options, just go back to Burnes and hope he figures it out. Without a couple of these guys just turning things around, the Brewers are gonna have to get lucky in order to turn it around. This team can't afford to go out and replace Cain, Aguilar, Shaw, Burnes and others who have performed this far under expectations. Chacin another.

I still think Aguilar and Shaw will be good players in the future, but I don't know if they're going to do much this year. Sure doesn't look like it.

And we don't have a farm system that is going to net big returns. Turang should be untouchable for any rental. I doubt the Brewers move him unless it's for something really franchise altering.

So...mostly I think we just have to hope this team starts playing better and playing together.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#23

Posted: July 06, 2019, 7:40 AM Post
Posts: 3060
OnTheBlack said:
Wahoo Maniac said:
Brew crew 92 said:
We’ll know soon, what the crew already believes, that Houser is gonna be a stud in the rotation, he’s way ahead of Burnes/peralta with the command of his devastating 4 pitch mix.

Disagree. Houser's a pen arm; he's merely filling in as a rotation arm because he's capable of that.



We don't know if Houser is a pen arm or a starter yet. I feel pretty confident saying he's not an ace, though that'd be 6 we'd have if he were. But he DOES have a pretty nice 4 pitch mix(not devastating, but solid). Good velocity. He's got a BABIP against him of .425 in his stats and he's only started 4 games and has started throughout his minor league career.

I'd leave him out there for the time being. Otherwise, given the options, just go back to Burnes and hope he figures it out. Without a couple of these guys just turning things around, the Brewers are gonna have to get lucky in order to turn it around. This team can't afford to go out and replace Cain, Aguilar, Shaw, Burnes and others who have performed this far under expectations. Chacin another.

I still think Aguilar and Shaw will be good players in the future, but I don't know if they're going to do much this year. Sure doesn't look like it.

And we don't have a farm system that is going to net big returns. Turang should be untouchable for any rental. I doubt the Brewers move him unless it's for something really franchise altering.

So...mostly I think we just have to hope this team starts playing better and playing together.


This site might not know if he’s a starter, but the brewers do. At least you are willing to leave him as a starter, unlike this board, who want him bullpenned. CC said he’s a starter moving forward. Other than maybe an innings limit, when he’ll probably then go to the pen.

“Nice” “Solid” is underrating his 4 pitch mix, imo. Chris Welch, former big league pitcher and color commentator for the reds tv broadcast, used the phrase “devastating 4 pitch mix” and “exploding”2 seam with “tremendous tailing action”, “Great command, painting the corners all night”,. Obviously, impressed. I agree. Underrated is he.

Not sure I agree with your comment on our farm not being able to net big returns. I believe Toby, when he says our farm is underrated. He knows more about our farm imo, than any one person, outside of the brewers themselves. I think Stearns has a myriad of options at his disposal, and could decide he wants to go big at the deadline, although that’s not his M/O. Under the radar moves for a pen arm or two and a bat, is my prediction.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#24

Posted: July 06, 2019, 4:15 PM Post
Posts: 12103
In the last 28 days covering 43 PA, Aguilar is hitting .278/.395/.444. There's hope he's back to his career level of production.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#25

Posted: July 07, 2019, 2:56 AM Post
Posts: 457
In Houser's starts his "devastating 4 pitch mix" has yielded: 11 IPs - 17 hits - 11 ERs including 3 HRs. If anything he is overrated. He is another Burnes; good stuff but can't keep the other team off the scoreboard. With Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, and now Houser getting smoked, Gio hurt, Chacin and Anderson so unpredictable, CC has limited options. He has to throw somebody other than Davies and Woody out there to start games. Unlike the others, Houser did well in the bullpen and right now he could heip stabilize a pen that has become a mess.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#26

Posted: July 07, 2019, 6:33 AM Post
Posts: 3060
wntrtxn21 said:
In Houser's starts his "devastating 4 pitch mix" has yielded: 11 IPs - 17 hits - 11 ERs including 3 HRs. If anything he is overrated. He is another Burnes; good stuff but can't keep the other team off the scoreboard. With Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, and now Houser getting smoked, Gio hurt, Chacin and Anderson so unpredictable, CC has limited options. He has to throw somebody other than Davies and Woody out there to start games. Unlike the others, Houser did well in the bullpen and right now he could heip stabilize a pen that has become a mess.


Pen arms are easier(less expensive prospect wise)to acquire than Starting pitchers, so of course I’d leave him in the rotation. Gots to have a little patience here, can’t just yank him without giving him a real opportunity to succeed, especially since he’s really been a starter most of his baseball life. And if people can’t see that his mix is special, I don’t know what to tell you.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#27

Posted: July 07, 2019, 6:57 AM Post
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Posts: 477
Location: Chicago
At this point, three games over .500 and sinking like a rock despite playing the soft part of their schedule; I’d anticipate the Brewers stand pat.

With a organization thin on blue chip prospects it’s not worth trading for them to stay in the race for the 2nd wild card position. Roll the bones and see what happens is a more solid strategy


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#28

Posted: July 07, 2019, 7:26 AM Post
Posts: 80
Hate to give up on a season, will always be a die hard brewer fan, but looking at this line up , their are just to many holes to fill. Other than Woodruff , we don't seem to have a picture that can go more than six innings. Our everyday line up has only 1 guy hitting over 300. The highest ave after that is 272. Our relievers are shaky at best. (Aside from Hader) don't know enough about our farm system to comment except for the fact anybody that has come up recently hasn't made a impact as of yet. Maybe Hiura is the exception. Jopal made a good point of not thinning out our farm even more for a WC spot with such a team full of holes.
Then again, who knows maybe we can get hot like last year and everything will be fine. Just not getting that vibe though. GO CREW !!


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#29

Posted: July 07, 2019, 8:08 AM Post
Posts: 3060
Jopal78! said:
At this point, three games over .500 and sinking like a rock despite playing the soft part of their schedule; I’d anticipate the Brewers stand pat.

With a organization thin on blue chip prospects it’s not worth trading for them to stay in the race for the 2nd wild card position. Roll the bones and see what happens is a more solid strategy


I’m starting this off by saying I’m probably more bullish on our minor league system than most, so with that said.

A bat(castellanos) or two(Walker) a couple of pen arms(Smith)(Diekman) a call-up or two(Grisham?Freitas?Devin Williams?Perdomo) all mixed together should get us to the playoffs > cheaply enough.

Not going to give up that much to acquire those players because of the rental effect. And I would argue, we’d possibly be the second or third best team behind the(possibly best team since the 98 Yankees and top 10 team of all time dodgers), and maybe the Braves, Cubbies, but right there nonetheless.

If we’re not gonna give up a lot of prospect capital, why not sign some rentals?


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#30

Posted: July 07, 2019, 11:41 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Brew crew 92 said:
This site might not know if he’s a starter, but the brewers do. At least you are willing to leave him as a starter, unlike this board, who want him bullpenned. CC said he’s a starter moving forward. Other than maybe an innings limit, when he’ll probably then go to the pen.

“Nice” “Solid” is underrating his 4 pitch mix, imo. Chris Welch, former big league pitcher and color commentator for the reds tv broadcast, used the phrase “devastating 4 pitch mix” and “exploding”2 seam with “tremendous tailing action”, “Great command, painting the corners all night”,. Obviously, impressed. I agree. Underrated is he.

Not sure I agree with your comment on our farm not being able to net big returns. I believe Toby, when he says our farm is underrated. He knows more about our farm imo, than any one person, outside of the brewers themselves. I think Stearns has a myriad of options at his disposal, and could decide he wants to go big at the deadline, although that’s not his M/O. Under the radar moves for a pen arm or two and a bat, is my prediction.

What Chris Welch says is irrelevant. Houser's always had 3 pitches and developed a slider this year I believe, which is a very nice pitch for him. But that doesn't make him a starting pitcher. He's been excellent as a multi-inning pen arm. He's been terrible as a starter. He has 4 starts this year in a true starters role plus one he started in a bullpen game so I'm not counting that one. The 4 true starter role starts have been bad. He was great for a couple innings the first start (like he always is as a pen arm) and good through 4-5 innings vs Cincy but there's where it ends. He's a pen arm. He's had zero great starts in 4 attempts. He's starting because why not have him start compared to our other internal options at this point.

I'm a huge fan of Houser. I've been wanting him up since the start of last year but in a pen role because he'll be excellent in that role. We need a vet starter with an expiring contract to take his spot so Houser can go back to the pen giving us a win/win - we improve the rotation and pen at the same time.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#31

Posted: July 07, 2019, 12:18 PM Post
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Posts: 9872
Houser needs to go back into the pen and do what he been doing well.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#32

Posted: July 07, 2019, 2:28 PM Post
Posts: 457
Brew crew 92 said:
Jopal78! said:
At this point, three games over .500 and sinking like a rock despite playing the soft part of their schedule; I’d anticipate the Brewers stand pat.

With a organization thin on blue chip prospects it’s not worth trading for them to stay in the race for the 2nd wild card position. Roll the bones and see what happens is a more solid strategy


I’m starting this off by saying I’m probably more bullish on our minor league system than most, so with that said.

A bat(castellanos) or two(Walker) a couple of pen arms(Smith)(Diekman) a call-up or two(Grisham?Freitas?Devin Williams?Perdomo) all mixed together should get us to the playoffs > cheaply enough.

Not going to give up that much to acquire those players because of the rental effect. And I would argue, we’d possibly be the second or third best team behind the(possibly best team since the 98 Yankees and top 10 team of all time dodgers), and maybe the Braves, Cubbies, but right there nonetheless.

If we’re not gonna give up a lot of prospect capital, why not sign some rentals?


A big problem with Castellanos is he's a butcher in LF. Anyone who has seen him flounder around in the OF knows he is a lot worse than his uzr indicates. If they sign him, Gamel has to go. If Cain sits then Yellich plays CF and you have two terrible defenders in LF (Braun) and Castellanos in RF. Plus is he worth what it would cost in prospects just to be a part-time player? Walker would replace who? Diekman has allowed a lot of runs (19) and has 22 BBs in only 36 IPs. Lots of Ks, but also a lot of baserunners. Smith won't come cheap, but he would help more than the other 3 combined.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#33

Posted: July 09, 2019, 6:40 AM Post
Posts: 12103
nate82 said:
I think a platoon partner for Braun makes sense that also helps at 1B. Castellanos makes the most sense depending on cost.

Arcia or Dubon at the #8 or 9 spot in the order is fine don't need to upgrade there. Pina is fine as the backup catcher.

The biggest hole is at 1B and LF which can be covered by 1 move if done right.

The next biggest hole is at starting pitching but that is going to cost way too much. Relief pitching is probably the best bang for your buck here.


I don't see 1B as a hole. Aguilar sure looks like he's back on track, and Thames while not great has been more than adequate. I think they need to split time to take advantage of a hot Aguilar, and give Thames more time in OF replacing Braun.

There's no getting around this fact. Cain and Braun have been huge disappointments, particularly Cain. A lot on here are all over Arcia, Really? Compare Arcia's numbers to Braun's. There's not much difference, and Braun is batting in the 3 hole most of the time. Watch his AB's. He's got to cheat to get to a fastball, and often looks foolish waving and missing at breaking pitches he couldn't reach with a broom. Cain too looks like he can't get to good fastballs anymore either.

Gamel's cooled off considerably too. Has he gotten exposed?

They could use an outfield bat. A hot Aguilar allowing more time for Thames in the OF might help.

Under the radar move suggestion? Daniel Palka from the White Sox. He hit 27 bombs last year then got off to 1 for 45 start before getting sent down where he's hit 16 HR.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#34

Posted: July 09, 2019, 7:24 AM Post
Posts: 1007
here's no getting around this fact. Cain and Braun have been huge disappointments, particularly Cain. A lot on here are all over Arcia, Really? Compare Arcia's numbers to Braun's. There's not much difference,


Part of the reason the focus is on Arcia over Braun/Cain is that we can't move or option the latter two even if we wanted to. Whether they see less playing time or not, they're going to be with the team the rest of the season (at least). Arcia has options remaining, and while not having a lot of value is someone who could be traded if they decide to go that unlikely route. So it's a roster spot we can theoretically improve upon, while the others aren't. Unless they release Braun, but that's not happening.

And while Braun's numbers are poor for a corner OF, there is most certainly a difference between their numbers; .271/.320/.454 (Braun) for a wRC+ of 100 vs .239/.300/.406 (Arcia) for a wRC+ of 80.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#35

Posted: July 09, 2019, 9:20 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Lathund said:
here's no getting around this fact. Cain and Braun have been huge disappointments, particularly Cain. A lot on here are all over Arcia, Really? Compare Arcia's numbers to Braun's. There's not much difference,


Part of the reason the focus is on Arcia over Braun/Cain is that we can't move or option the latter two even if we wanted to. Whether they see less playing time or not, they're going to be with the team the rest of the season (at least). Arcia has options remaining, and while not having a lot of value is someone who could be traded if they decide to go that unlikely route. So it's a roster spot we can theoretically improve upon, while the others aren't. Unless they release Braun, but that's not happening.

And while Braun's numbers are poor for a corner OF, there is most certainly a difference between their numbers; .271/.320/.454 (Braun) for a wRC+ of 100 vs .239/.300/.406 (Arcia) for a wRC+ of 80.

Braun was hitting 281 with a 900+ OPS until his utterly worthless 10 game stretch (3-34) in mid-April. Since then (April 20) he's slashing 299/351/832 (116 wrc+). On the season overall, minus that junk stretch, his numbers are going to be very similar to that but with a slightly lower BA/OBP but higher OPS. That's 87% of his season's PA he's posted those numbers.

Arcia had a 2 month stretch from April 2 to June 5 where he slashed 278/346/800 (106 wrc+). That's 67% of his season though. The other 33% he's been garbage. This is one reason I'd trade Arcia at the deadline. He's never consistent. He hasn't been consistent this year. He was terrible most of last year as well as 2016 (I cut him some slack there since he was super young and a rookie but he didn't show much either). There's a reason they acquired and started Saladino early last year - there's a reason they brought up Saladino to give him starts at SS over a week ago. Defense is part of it but consistency is a main bullet point. Braun's consistent at least even when he's aging. He'll have a couple junk 1-2wk stretches over the season but otherwise he's consistent.

13% garbage vs 33% garbage. That's a major difference. Again, it goes back to consistency. Also, Cain's probably had that thumb issue for longer than they've said so he's most likely played injured most of the season. It's difficult to pound on him when he's playing through nerve damage in his thumb but I've learned that's what this site does apparently. The lack of objectivity is astounding to me thus far here. The only conclusion I can draw regarding Braun is people don't like him because of what drew him a suspension/how he initiatlly handled it and they're just tired of him as he's been here forever. I'm sure his salary vs production is part of it as well but that's how baseball has worked in the past so it shouldn't even a valid point. There's a place to have those opinions but one can still be objective when speaking about a player still.

LF isn't going to be addressed at the deadline. Won't even be thought about unless Braun gets injured and is out for an extended period of time. 1b won't be addressed either as Thames has been good all year and Aguilar's power is coming back (his BA/OBP have been fine since the start of May). Neither will backup Catcher. I highly doubt they address CF given Cain can still play defense and is a team leader so they'll just have to deal with his inconsistent play.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#36

Posted: July 09, 2019, 3:47 PM Post
Posts: 8578
Brew crew 92 said:
Jopal78! said:
At this point, three games over .500 and sinking like a rock despite playing the soft part of their schedule; I’d anticipate the Brewers stand pat.

With a organization thin on blue chip prospects it’s not worth trading for them to stay in the race for the 2nd wild card position. Roll the bones and see what happens is a more solid strategy


I’m starting this off by saying I’m probably more bullish on our minor league system than most, so with that said.

A bat(castellanos) or two(Walker) a couple of pen arms(Smith)(Diekman) a call-up or two(Grisham?Freitas?Devin Williams?Perdomo) all mixed together should get us to the playoffs > cheaply enough.

Not going to give up that much to acquire those players because of the rental effect. And I would argue, we’d possibly be the second or third best team behind the(possibly best team since the 98 Yankees and top 10 team of all time dodgers), and maybe the Braves, Cubbies, but right there nonetheless.

If we’re not gonna give up a lot of prospect capital, why not sign some rentals?


Are you buying or selling? In another thread you're talking about trading Hader. Why would you trade Hader, but buy a couple bats and relievers for a playoff run?

Also, regarding Houser, you seem to really take the ceiling of a pitcher and believe that's absolutely, no doubt, what they're going to be. Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, Perdomo, Rasmussen, others I can't recall. Now Houser. There have been thousands of pitchers who had as good or better stuff than any of these guys who were never any good in MLB, or had a brief stint of success and vanished.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#37

Posted: July 09, 2019, 5:20 PM Post
Posts: 3060
FVBrewerFan said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Jopal78! said:
At this point, three games over .500 and sinking like a rock despite playing the soft part of their schedule; I’d anticipate the Brewers stand pat.

With a organization thin on blue chip prospects it’s not worth trading for them to stay in the race for the 2nd wild card position. Roll the bones and see what happens is a more solid strategy


I’m starting this off by saying I’m probably more bullish on our minor league system than most, so with that said.

A bat(castellanos) or two(Walker) a couple of pen arms(Smith)(Diekman) a call-up or two(Grisham?Freitas?Devin Williams?Perdomo) all mixed together should get us to the playoffs > cheaply enough.

Not going to give up that much to acquire those players because of the rental effect. And I would argue, we’d possibly be the second or third best team behind the(possibly best team since the 98 Yankees and top 10 team of all time dodgers), and maybe the Braves, Cubbies, but right there nonetheless.

If we’re not gonna give up a lot of prospect capital, why not sign some rentals?


Are you buying or selling? In another thread you're talking about trading Hader. Why would you trade Hader, but buy a couple bats and relievers for a playoff run?

Also, regarding Houser, you seem to really take the ceiling of a pitcher and believe that's absolutely, no doubt, what they're going to be. Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, Perdomo, Rasmussen, others I can't recall. Now Houser. There have been thousands of pitchers who had as good or better stuff than any of these guys who were never any good in MLB, or had a brief stint of success and vanished.


Regarding Houser, I see the same thing the brewers do, a 4 pitch mix, with command of those 4 pitches > Starter. He dominated pitching out of the pen, but unlike Burnes in the pen, who condensed his arsenal to FB Slider, Houser continued throwing his complete mix with success, so he should have success moving forward as a starter. He’s not a robot, he needs to pitch to get stretched to where he has his stamina back, and that takes time. With patience, the payoff should be big.

Regarding Hader and am I buying or selling? I’m doing both at the same time.

I trade Hader this deadline because:

1.) This deadline is shaping up to be a huge sellers market. Teams that have great farm systems that need a pitcher like Hader to either get into the playoffs(Rays) win their division(Twins)(Braves) or Win the Series(Dodgers)(Astros). There’s not an abundance of great pitchers available so that makes Hader valuable, then add the 4 1/2 years of control and you get potentially the largest prospect haul ever. At some point in time a precedent needs set, it might as well be done by Stearns.

2.) protection from regression or injury. Either of which would be potentially devastating to the prospect haul received.

The 5 top prospects received would be Franchise altering immediately, if ML ready plug in, if not, stash and develop, allowing for liberal use of our prospects currently in our system to be used to improve the team now, a starter(Stroman?Wheeler?Bauer) 2-3 pen arms(Smith?Colome? ???) Bat(Castellanos? ?) i would argue with said moves the team could still win this year, and be able to, with the stud prospects received, better themselves again this offseason, by trading said prospects for ML stars.

I believe our best window to win a title in the near future is 19/20, because Yelich will need traded after next year. So I would spend my $ And prospect capitol this year and offseason and next deadline. Trading Hader this year helps me acquire more star players during said window.


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Offline  Re: Does finding Hitting now become the #1 need
#38

Posted: July 13, 2019, 7:24 AM Post
Posts: 490
Pitching is the top need, but Cain at the top is painful, and Thanes st lead off would stack the lefties. Miguel Rojas of the Marlins would be a decent leadoff option until Cain hopefully gets going. SS could use improvement over Arcia.


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