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Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?

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Offline  Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#1

Posted: July 06, 2019, 6:18 AM Post
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Posts: 298
It seems half a decade that the Brewers have been in talks with the Mets about acquiring Wheeler, it frankly seems inevitable at this point, I’m just not sure what it would cost in terms of in house talent.

1 day ago — https://reviewingthebrew.com/2019/07/05 ... cks-trade/


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#2

Posted: July 06, 2019, 7:01 AM Post
Posts: 4266
If I'm the brewers I ask the mets about adding Diaz to the wheeler trade and then seeing what the cost would be - they could use both and Diaz has 3 years left of team control


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#3

Posted: July 06, 2019, 7:43 AM Post
Posts: 1646
Location: Madison, WI
I think Wheeler is the starter I'd go after. I do worry a bit about the price. I'd currently value him at 12.6 million in surplus value (projecting him as being good for 1.7 WAR over the remainder of the season). I'd be willing to do something like:

Wheeler for Tristen Lutz and Clayton Andrews
Wheeler for Aaron Ashby, Payton Henry and Je'Von Ward

I could see bidding easily go above those levels. I would not be willing to deal Turang in a Wheeler deal, unless I was also getting a real quality reliever from the Mets. I think the price on Edwin Diaz would be sky-high just based on what the Mets paid to get him, so I would have to assume he is out. Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo would be great, but the price including Lugo would be huge because he has 3.5 years of team control left...so this is probably not realistic. The Mets do have Justin Wilson in the pen, he's been hurt most of this year but was a hot name a couple years ago. He has also had some ugly peripherals recently with walks, but could prove to be a hot-hand down the stretch. He's under contract for 5 million next year, so if the Mets want to dump him, maybe the Brewers take Wilson and leverage that to keep Wheeler's price at "one less fringe prospect." But clearly at this point, Wilson does not fall in the "we'll include Turang but to do that will also need Justin Wilson in the deal" category (at least I wouldn't anticipate that).


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Online  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#4

Posted: July 06, 2019, 7:58 AM Post
Posts: 1978
I don’t think Stearns is going to get into a bidding war over anyone. Just not who he is. Quality starter, even a rental is out, imo. Under the radar move for a starter, maybe, but I don’t think so. How many starters has Stearns traded for since he’s been the boss? I can’t think of one.

He’s going bullpen, and he’s going rental. And it again, won’t be a pitcher that he has to outbid to land.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#5

Posted: July 06, 2019, 12:03 PM Post
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I mean we did trade for Gio Gonzalez just last deadline, so it's clear he's not allergic to the concept. Chase Anderson, too, was an established starter that Stearns got in trade.

We're likely to need at least one new starter next year so I wouldn't be stunned to see a deal for a guy who has some team control left. We don't have a lot of prospect capital but Stearns definitely seems willing to spend what he has...I can imagine some reshuffling of the major league roster with Arcia or Aguilar available as well.


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Online  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#6

Posted: July 06, 2019, 1:11 PM Post
Posts: 1978
SoCalBrewfan said:
I mean we did trade for Gio Gonzalez just last deadline, so it's clear he's not allergic to the concept. Chase Anderson, too, was an established starter that Stearns got in trade.

We're likely to need at least one new starter next year so I wouldn't be stunned to see a deal for a guy who has some team control left. We don't have a lot of prospect capital but Stearns definitely seems willing to spend what he has...I can imagine some reshuffling of the major league roster with Arcia or Aguilar available as well.


That’s two more than I could think of, so yes he’s done it before, we’ll see what happens at the deadline.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#7

Posted: July 08, 2019, 2:31 PM Post
Posts: 498
JosephC said:
I think Wheeler is the starter I'd go after. I do worry a bit about the price. I'd currently value him at 12.6 million in surplus value (projecting him as being good for 1.7 WAR over the remainder of the season). I'd be willing to do something like:

Wheeler for Tristen Lutz and Clayton Andrews
Wheeler for Aaron Ashby, Payton Henry and Je'Von Ward

I could see bidding easily go above those levels. I would not be willing to deal Turang in a Wheeler deal, unless I was also getting a real quality reliever from the Mets. I think the price on Edwin Diaz would be sky-high just based on what the Mets paid to get him, so I would have to assume he is out. Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo would be great, but the price including Lugo would be huge because he has 3.5 years of team control left...so this is probably not realistic. The Mets do have Justin Wilson in the pen, he's been hurt most of this year but was a hot name a couple years ago. He has also had some ugly peripherals recently with walks, but could prove to be a hot-hand down the stretch. He's under contract for 5 million next year, so if the Mets want to dump him, maybe the Brewers take Wilson and leverage that to keep Wheeler's price at "one less fringe prospect." But clearly at this point, Wilson does not fall in the "we'll include Turang but to do that will also need Justin Wilson in the deal" category (at least I wouldn't anticipate that).


I would not give up any of Lutz, Ashby or Henry for a 2 month rental in Wheeler. We're talking about three guys who I would put in our Top 10 prospect list right now. Are you telling me that it's really going to take that much to get a 2-month SP rental at the deadline this year? If so, count me in as a "strong pass" on a guy like Wheeler. The only way I might consider it is if you could assure me that we'd be able to re-sign him in the offseason for a team friendly type deal.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#8

Posted: July 08, 2019, 2:47 PM Post
Posts: 4570
Location: New Berlin, WI
JosephC said:
I think Wheeler is the starter I'd go after. I do worry a bit about the price. I'd currently value him at 12.6 million in surplus value (projecting him as being good for 1.7 WAR over the remainder of the season). I'd be willing to do something like:

Wheeler for Tristen Lutz and Clayton Andrews
Wheeler for Aaron Ashby, Payton Henry and Je'Von Ward

I could see bidding easily go above those levels. I would not be willing to deal Turang in a Wheeler deal, unless I was also getting a real quality reliever from the Mets. I think the price on Edwin Diaz would be sky-high just based on what the Mets paid to get him, so I would have to assume he is out. Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo would be great, but the price including Lugo would be huge because he has 3.5 years of team control left...so this is probably not realistic. The Mets do have Justin Wilson in the pen, he's been hurt most of this year but was a hot name a couple years ago. He has also had some ugly peripherals recently with walks, but could prove to be a hot-hand down the stretch. He's under contract for 5 million next year, so if the Mets want to dump him, maybe the Brewers take Wilson and leverage that to keep Wheeler's price at "one less fringe prospect." But clearly at this point, Wilson does not fall in the "we'll include Turang but to do that will also need Justin Wilson in the deal" category (at least I wouldn't anticipate that).



How is 2 months of a 4.7 ERA starter worth those prospects? I know you have your ways of coming up with these calcs, that just seems like a crazy price to me. I'll also at baseball reference has him at 1 WAR this season so far, not sure how you project he'll post 1.7 WAR in less starts unless you're assuming he'll be way better in the 2nd half.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#9

Posted: July 08, 2019, 2:54 PM Post
Posts: 498
KeithStone53151 said:
JosephC said:
I think Wheeler is the starter I'd go after. I do worry a bit about the price. I'd currently value him at 12.6 million in surplus value (projecting him as being good for 1.7 WAR over the remainder of the season). I'd be willing to do something like:

Wheeler for Tristen Lutz and Clayton Andrews
Wheeler for Aaron Ashby, Payton Henry and Je'Von Ward

I could see bidding easily go above those levels. I would not be willing to deal Turang in a Wheeler deal, unless I was also getting a real quality reliever from the Mets. I think the price on Edwin Diaz would be sky-high just based on what the Mets paid to get him, so I would have to assume he is out. Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo would be great, but the price including Lugo would be huge because he has 3.5 years of team control left...so this is probably not realistic. The Mets do have Justin Wilson in the pen, he's been hurt most of this year but was a hot name a couple years ago. He has also had some ugly peripherals recently with walks, but could prove to be a hot-hand down the stretch. He's under contract for 5 million next year, so if the Mets want to dump him, maybe the Brewers take Wilson and leverage that to keep Wheeler's price at "one less fringe prospect." But clearly at this point, Wilson does not fall in the "we'll include Turang but to do that will also need Justin Wilson in the deal" category (at least I wouldn't anticipate that).



How is 2 months of a 4.7 ERA starter worth those prospects? I know you have your ways of coming up with these calcs, that just seems like a crazy price to me. I'll also at baseball reference has him at 1 WAR this season so far, not sure how you project he'll post 1.7 WAR in less starts unless you're assuming he'll be way better in the 2nd half.


According to Joel Sherman - it sounds like the Mets have engaged the Red Sox on talks regarding Wheeler already. So, it's probably not worth even going down this road, as we'll just have to overpay at this point to get him. And, as I mentioned above - I'm just not on board with doing that, and I hope Stearns isn't either.


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Online  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#10

Posted: July 08, 2019, 3:24 PM Post
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Location: Chicago
The Mets GM (Van Wagenen) has proven to be a doofus; so I wouldn't rule anything out. In fact the whole Cano/Diaz for Jay Bruce and Swarzak Plus hasn't worked out for the Mets. Cano has sucked, Diaz has gotten pounded. The Mariners already traded off Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak, so they basically dumped a bunch of salary on the Mets for a couple of good looking prospects albeit ones who are a few years off.


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Online  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#11

Posted: July 08, 2019, 4:13 PM Post
Posts: 533
Carlos Gomez is a free agent after being released by the Mets, maybe the Brewers could sign him to a minor league deal and take a crack at another Gomez for Wheeler swap because The Mets are The Mets? /blue


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#12

Posted: July 08, 2019, 4:30 PM Post
Posts: 913
KeithStone53151 said:
JosephC said:
I think Wheeler is the starter I'd go after. I do worry a bit about the price. I'd currently value him at 12.6 million in surplus value (projecting him as being good for 1.7 WAR over the remainder of the season). I'd be willing to do something like:

Wheeler for Tristen Lutz and Clayton Andrews
Wheeler for Aaron Ashby, Payton Henry and Je'Von Ward

I could see bidding easily go above those levels. I would not be willing to deal Turang in a Wheeler deal, unless I was also getting a real quality reliever from the Mets. I think the price on Edwin Diaz would be sky-high just based on what the Mets paid to get him, so I would have to assume he is out. Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo would be great, but the price including Lugo would be huge because he has 3.5 years of team control left...so this is probably not realistic. The Mets do have Justin Wilson in the pen, he's been hurt most of this year but was a hot name a couple years ago. He has also had some ugly peripherals recently with walks, but could prove to be a hot-hand down the stretch. He's under contract for 5 million next year, so if the Mets want to dump him, maybe the Brewers take Wilson and leverage that to keep Wheeler's price at "one less fringe prospect." But clearly at this point, Wilson does not fall in the "we'll include Turang but to do that will also need Justin Wilson in the deal" category (at least I wouldn't anticipate that).



How is 2 months of a 4.7 ERA starter worth those prospects? I know you have your ways of coming up with these calcs, that just seems like a crazy price to me. I'll also at baseball reference has him at 1 WAR this season so far, not sure how you project he'll post 1.7 WAR in less starts unless you're assuming he'll be way better in the 2nd half.


I don't really like those deals either, giving up anything of real value for a rental, but the answer to the first question is simply that he's not a 4.7 ERA starter. He's at 3.88 for his career, and this year he has the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career while HR rate is only moderately up. His FB velocity is also the highest of his career. He's not helped by having one of the worst defenses in the league (30th by DRS, 28th by UZR) behind him, and I don't imagine that bullpen is doing him any favors either. So he's pitching a lot better than is reflected by his ERA. And as far as the Brewers go, him simply averaging 6.26 IP/start would do wonders for the bullpen even if it was at the current ERA. Which it likely won't be. He'd improve this rotation by a lot, no question about that. It's simply a matter of price.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#13

Posted: July 09, 2019, 7:21 AM Post
Posts: 10828
Brew crew 92 said:
I don’t think Stearns is going to get into a bidding war over anyone. Just not who he is.


Do you think we were the only bidder when we got Cain? Yelich?

Wheeler is no Manny Machado, I doubt such a bidding war for Wheeler happens.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#14

Posted: July 09, 2019, 7:32 AM Post
Posts: 913
MrTPlush said:
Brew crew 92 said:
I don’t think Stearns is going to get into a bidding war over anyone. Just not who he is.


Do you think we were the only bidder when we got Cain? Yelich?

Wheeler is no Manny Machado, I doubt such a bidding war for Wheeler happens.


It's more a case of Stearns having a price in mind and not exceeding it (Some agents have said as much) as a result of a bidding war. If the bidding starts at $65m and Stearns is willing to go to $80m he's probably OK with a bidding war. But if it starts at $80m he's not.


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Online  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#15

Posted: July 09, 2019, 7:46 AM Post
Posts: 1978
MrTPlush said:
Brew crew 92 said:
I don’t think Stearns is going to get into a bidding war over anyone. Just not who he is.


Do you think we were the only bidder when we got Cain? Yelich?

Wheeler is no Manny Machado, I doubt such a bidding war for Wheeler happens.


With starters being the hottest commodity there is in baseball, and with so few available at this year’s deadline, and reading about the Yankees among many others going hard after Wheeler, just not all that confident we’re going to land him.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#16

Posted: July 09, 2019, 10:22 AM Post
Posts: 270
Lathund said:
KeithStone53151 said:
JosephC said:
I think Wheeler is the starter I'd go after. I do worry a bit about the price. I'd currently value him at 12.6 million in surplus value (projecting him as being good for 1.7 WAR over the remainder of the season). I'd be willing to do something like:

Wheeler for Tristen Lutz and Clayton Andrews
Wheeler for Aaron Ashby, Payton Henry and Je'Von Ward

I could see bidding easily go above those levels. I would not be willing to deal Turang in a Wheeler deal, unless I was also getting a real quality reliever from the Mets. I think the price on Edwin Diaz would be sky-high just based on what the Mets paid to get him, so I would have to assume he is out. Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo would be great, but the price including Lugo would be huge because he has 3.5 years of team control left...so this is probably not realistic. The Mets do have Justin Wilson in the pen, he's been hurt most of this year but was a hot name a couple years ago. He has also had some ugly peripherals recently with walks, but could prove to be a hot-hand down the stretch. He's under contract for 5 million next year, so if the Mets want to dump him, maybe the Brewers take Wilson and leverage that to keep Wheeler's price at "one less fringe prospect." But clearly at this point, Wilson does not fall in the "we'll include Turang but to do that will also need Justin Wilson in the deal" category (at least I wouldn't anticipate that).



How is 2 months of a 4.7 ERA starter worth those prospects? I know you have your ways of coming up with these calcs, that just seems like a crazy price to me. I'll also at baseball reference has him at 1 WAR this season so far, not sure how you project he'll post 1.7 WAR in less starts unless you're assuming he'll be way better in the 2nd half.


I don't really like those deals either, giving up anything of real value for a rental, but the answer to the first question is simply that he's not a 4.7 ERA starter. He's at 3.88 for his career, and this year he has the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career while HR rate is only moderately up. His FB velocity is also the highest of his career. He's not helped by having one of the worst defenses in the league (30th by DRS, 28th by UZR) behind him, and I don't imagine that bullpen is doing him any favors either. So he's pitching a lot better than is reflected by his ERA. And as far as the Brewers go, him simply averaging 6.26 IP/start would do wonders for the bullpen even if it was at the current ERA. Which it likely won't be. He'd improve this rotation by a lot, no question about that. It's simply a matter of price.


I think Wheeler's high ERA is partly due to the number of HRs (16) he's given up so far. He only allowed 14 HRs all of last year. He has had some problems pitching from the stretch. Still he's a 2 month rental. It would really depend on what the Mets would take to deal him.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#17

Posted: July 09, 2019, 12:02 PM Post
Posts: 4570
Location: New Berlin, WI
I stand by that I don't think Wheeler is worth 1.7 WAR over the last 2 months. That said, I'm well aware the market will dictate price...and very likely a team will have to pay a premium in the given market. I guess it wouldn't surprise me if it took that caliber of prospects to land Wheeler...I just think it would be an overpay from a value perspective.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#18

Posted: July 09, 2019, 12:44 PM Post
Posts: 498
I know hindsight is always 20/20, but you have to wonder if Stearns wishes he could go back in time a few months and make a harder push to bring Miley back? It just pains me to see him putting up solid numbers again this year (in the AL no less), and realizing how great he would look in this rotation right now. I know we thought we had things covered with Burnes, Freddy, Woodruff and perhaps even Jimmy coming back - but obviously only one of those guys has really panned out for us. And, to think Miley signed for just 1 year at 4.5M.

I have no idea if we even tried to make a run at Miley, but it sure would be nice to have a time-travel machine to go back and fix that mistake.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#19

Posted: July 09, 2019, 12:55 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Lathund said:
KeithStone53151 said:
JosephC said:
I think Wheeler is the starter I'd go after. I do worry a bit about the price. I'd currently value him at 12.6 million in surplus value (projecting him as being good for 1.7 WAR over the remainder of the season). I'd be willing to do something like:

Wheeler for Tristen Lutz and Clayton Andrews
Wheeler for Aaron Ashby, Payton Henry and Je'Von Ward

I could see bidding easily go above those levels. I would not be willing to deal Turang in a Wheeler deal, unless I was also getting a real quality reliever from the Mets. I think the price on Edwin Diaz would be sky-high just based on what the Mets paid to get him, so I would have to assume he is out. Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo would be great, but the price including Lugo would be huge because he has 3.5 years of team control left...so this is probably not realistic. The Mets do have Justin Wilson in the pen, he's been hurt most of this year but was a hot name a couple years ago. He has also had some ugly peripherals recently with walks, but could prove to be a hot-hand down the stretch. He's under contract for 5 million next year, so if the Mets want to dump him, maybe the Brewers take Wilson and leverage that to keep Wheeler's price at "one less fringe prospect." But clearly at this point, Wilson does not fall in the "we'll include Turang but to do that will also need Justin Wilson in the deal" category (at least I wouldn't anticipate that).



How is 2 months of a 4.7 ERA starter worth those prospects? I know you have your ways of coming up with these calcs, that just seems like a crazy price to me. I'll also at baseball reference has him at 1 WAR this season so far, not sure how you project he'll post 1.7 WAR in less starts unless you're assuming he'll be way better in the 2nd half.


I don't really like those deals either, giving up anything of real value for a rental, but the answer to the first question is simply that he's not a 4.7 ERA starter. He's at 3.88 for his career, and this year he has the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career while HR rate is only moderately up. His FB velocity is also the highest of his career. He's not helped by having one of the worst defenses in the league (30th by DRS, 28th by UZR) behind him, and I don't imagine that bullpen is doing him any favors either. So he's pitching a lot better than is reflected by his ERA. And as far as the Brewers go, him simply averaging 6.26 IP/start would do wonders for the bullpen even if it was at the current ERA. Which it likely won't be. He'd improve this rotation by a lot, no question about that. It's simply a matter of price.

Wheeler is a pitcher that analytics guys will like. But 42% of his starts this year aren't good. Last year 31% of his starts weren't good but went on a tear the final 2 months to cut it to that 31%. The consistency hasn't been there. He's still a solid pitcher but I think whatever the Mets get for him will be in overpay relative to his performance and I'd personally shy away from him.


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Offline  Re: Brewers -Wheeler, inevitable?
#20

Posted: July 09, 2019, 1:12 PM Post
Posts: 498
[quote= Wheeler is a pitcher that analytics guys will like. But 42% of his starts this year aren't good. Last year 31% of his starts weren't good but went on a tear the final 2 months to cut it to that 31%. The consistency hasn't been there. He's still a solid pitcher but I think whatever the Mets get for him will be in overpay relative to his performance and I'd personally shy away from him.[/quote]

Yeah, this is my general feeling as well. I just do not want to overpay for someone like Wheeler, and with the dearth of available SP candidates at the deadline, I'm guessing that anyone with a pulse is going to cost way too much in terms of prospects. Some team is going to vastly overpay for a guy like Wheeler, and I'd prefer that it isn't the Brewers. With that said though - we need SP help, and I'm really not sure where that's going to come from? Do we go ahead and really overpay for a SP that has more team control (i.e. Matthew Boyd), or do we simply hope that Gio comes back healthy in the 2nd half and hope that someone in the grouping of Freddy, Houser, Jimmy or Burnes finds their way back into the rotation and gets things figured out?


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