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OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do

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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#41

Posted: July 10, 2019, 9:36 AM Post
Posts: 1825
PeaveyFury said:
Brewcrewin07 said:
But right now..As long as the Cubs are being mediocre, that's your window. .


The funny thing is, the Cubs are only mediocre because of the bad moves they made to win one WS which drastically cut the window they had. A team like Milwaukee has to have more balance. If you want to go all in and win one just to win one like the 108-year drought team did, it will likely come at the cost of success beyond that.


Or in hindsight..... one looks back at 2008, 2011, and 2018 and thinks it would have been nice to add another piece(like a bat at short in 2011 or ace last year) and see how that could have improved the team since, in my mind, the little engine cannot be expected to be in it every season. I would tend to make bolder moves when we are are in it come July 31 because of this thinking. The whole model of being playoff competitive yearly..... I'm not sold on it.

I see us taking a step back next year, as is. Who doesn't?? No Grandal or Moose likely, right? No immediate upgrades there. I would expect us to be much more aggressive at this year's deadline (and it's a hard deadline at that so no Stearns' bargain hunting in August) since next year is likely a step back unless we trade for a top of the order bat or ace that we can control next year.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#42

Posted: July 10, 2019, 9:40 AM Post
Posts: 1825
clancyphile said:
sveumrules said:
There's no prospect that's untouchable for me in the right deal.

If we're acquiring a player with multiple years of control at a position of need I'd be fine dealing Turang, Lutz, Grisham, Rasmussen, Ashby, whoever if Stearns & company think we're getting good value back.

For a rental though? No way.

My best guess is Stearns & company will do the same thing they did last deadline & deal prospects they view as superfluous for minor upgrades around the margins.


Agreed.

Some prospects (Turang, Grisham, Ashby, Rasmussen, Supak) would require a king's ransom of sorts in return.


They can't do the same as last year because deals in August cannot be done. The team has 3 weeks to get it figured out.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#43

Posted: July 10, 2019, 10:12 AM Post
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have to think DS spent the Break working on deals


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#44

Posted: July 10, 2019, 10:16 AM Post
Posts: 375
Add a bullpen piece or two and maybe a bench bat, but other than that stand pat.


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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#45

Posted: July 10, 2019, 10:20 AM Post
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shanedog19 said:
Add a bullpen piece or two and maybe a bench bat, but other than that stand pat.


This is where I think they go as well. Perhaps they'll pick up a starter like Wheeler if the cost isn't prohibitive, but I think a couple pen arms and a consistent bench bat are the priorities.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#46

Posted: July 10, 2019, 10:52 AM Post
Posts: 1259
rickh150 said:
PeaveyFury said:
Brewcrewin07 said:
But right now..As long as the Cubs are being mediocre, that's your window. .


The funny thing is, the Cubs are only mediocre because of the bad moves they made to win one WS which drastically cut the window they had. A team like Milwaukee has to have more balance. If you want to go all in and win one just to win one like the 108-year drought team did, it will likely come at the cost of success beyond that.


Or in hindsight..... one looks back at 2008, 2011, and 2018 and thinks it would have been nice to add another piece(like a bat at short in 2011 or ace last year) and see how that could have improved the team since, in my mind, the little engine cannot be expected to be in it every season. I would tend to make bolder moves when we are are in it come July 31 because of this thinking. The whole model of being playoff competitive yearly..... I'm not sold on it.

I see us taking a step back next year, as is. Who doesn't?? No Grandal or Moose likely, right? No immediate upgrades there. I would expect us to be much more aggressive at this year's deadline (and it's a hard deadline at that so no Stearns' bargain hunting in August) since next year is likely a step back unless we trade for a top of the order bat or ace that we can control next year.


This is so spot on...When has a small market team ever been in playoff contention on a yearly basis?? It just doesn't happen. That's why when you have a chance to not only make the playoffs but advance to the World Series, you go for it, and don't look back. You simply, have to. Go big, or go home. If Stearns only makes a few minor moves this year, shame on him for "cheating" the fans and his current players like that. Trade what you have to trade without it effecting your chances this year(guys like Burnes, Peralata, Arica are prime trade bait to me) and get some big things done. He owes it to the fans and the current team.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#47

Posted: July 11, 2019, 12:53 AM Post
Posts: 17369
Brewcrewin07 said:
That's why when you have a chance to not only make the playoffs but advance to the World Series, you go for it, and don't look back. You simply, have to. Go big, or go home. If Stearns only makes a few minor moves this year, shame on him for "cheating" the fans and his current players like that. Trade what you have to trade without it effecting your chances this year(guys like Burnes, Peralata, Arica are prime trade bait to me) and get some big things done. He owes it to the fans and the current team.


This is the 3rd straight year you have said this. If we had followed your line of thinking, there would be nothing left to trade. Ironically, we wouldn't be contending anyway, because we would have traded everything we have to land Quintana, and in turn -- Yelich wouldn't be here. You know we can't go big every year, right?

In any event, I'm not sure why you think this team, other than just getting really lucky, has a chance to get by even the Braves much less the Dodgers in the NL playoffs, two far superior teams. Half the teams in the NL should feel they have just as good of a chance. At what point are you not going to "go for it?"

Here's your other problem. We don't have a lot of trade capital. Any of these really really big fish that you want, if we don't put Hiura or Hader on the table, which we won't because that also hurts us now, almost any contender out there can and will outbid us. These Burnes, Peralta, Arcia pieces, aren't going to get it done if it's for someone that teams like the Astros or Braves have any desire for.


Last edited by adambr2 on July 11, 2019, 4:48 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#48

Posted: July 11, 2019, 1:34 AM Post
Posts: 1230
82brewcrew82 said:
Eye Black said:
I think anyone hoping this team’s roster is going to look significantly different by the end of the All-Star break is setting themselves up for disappointment.

They’ll make moves this month, but I would doubt many (if any) occur by this Friday.

I think this sentiment will extend straight through the trade deadline. Pretty much every team in contention can outbid us if they want to. It's going to be a couple of under the radar moves and not much more. The players we have are going to have to play better.



It's pretty much all about this. If Aguilar can keep his little mini-resurgence going, that'd be great. Shaw figuring it out would help, but that'd be a bonus at this point.

Cain, Aguilar, Chacin, Burnes all need to perform closer to what they're capable of. If that happens and it need to start to happen in the next couple weeks, then it makes sense to go out and add a reliever. If those players don't get it going, then selling a few select players would make more sense and go into next year trying to re-load and bounce back.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#49

Posted: July 11, 2019, 1:55 AM Post
Posts: 1230
clancyphile said:
sveumrules said:
There's no prospect that's untouchable for me in the right deal.

If we're acquiring a player with multiple years of control at a position of need I'd be fine dealing Turang, Lutz, Grisham, Rasmussen, Ashby, whoever if Stearns & company think we're getting good value back.

For a rental though? No way.

My best guess is Stearns & company will do the same thing they did last deadline & deal prospects they view as superfluous for minor upgrades around the margins.


Agreed.

Some prospects (Turang, Grisham, Ashby, Rasmussen, Supak) would require a king's ransom of sorts in return.



Turang, absolutely.
Rasmussen...he looks like a really promising pitcher, but he's also had two TJ's.
Grisham...meh, he's coming on. A "kings ransom" though? Unlikely.

Ashby is a nice young lefty. Not the type that you need a kings ransom for and Supak?

I guess maybe our definition of kings ransom are vastly different.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#50

Posted: July 11, 2019, 4:51 AM Post
Posts: 1259
adambr2 said:
Brewcrewin07 said:
That's why when you have a chance to not only make the playoffs but advance to the World Series, you go for it, and don't look back. You simply, have to. Go big, or go home. If Stearns only makes a few minor moves this year, shame on him for "cheating" the fans and his current players like that. Trade what you have to trade without it effecting your chances this year(guys like Burnes, Peralata, Arica are prime trade bait to me) and get some big things done. He owes it to the fans and the current team.


This is the 3rd straight year you have said this. If we had followed your line of thinking, there would be nothing left to trade. Ironically, we wouldn't be contending anyway, because we would have traded everything we have to land Quintana, and in turn -- Yelich wouldn't be here. You know we can't go big every year, right?

In any event, I'm not sure why you think this team, other than just getting really lucky, has a chance to get by even the Braves much less the Dodgers in the NL playoffs, two far superior teams. Half the teams in the NL should feel they have just as good of a chance. At what point are you not going to "go for it?"


I'm not going to "go for it" when the talent level clearly isn't good enough to make the playoffs. You play 5 game series and 7 game series in baseball, anything can happen. We've seen it many times before. Conversely, I'm not sure why so many are hesitant to trade "prospects"?? They are just that...unproven talent. When has a small market team ever been in playoff contention every year?? It just doesn't happen, and hasn't happened. When you have the chance to make the playoffs, you simply have to go for it..next year isn't guaranteed for anything.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#51

Posted: July 11, 2019, 5:50 AM Post
Posts: 1980
OnTheBlack said:
82brewcrew82 said:
Eye Black said:
I think anyone hoping this team’s roster is going to look significantly different by the end of the All-Star break is setting themselves up for disappointment.

They’ll make moves this month, but I would doubt many (if any) occur by this Friday.

I think this sentiment will extend straight through the trade deadline. Pretty much every team in contention can outbid us if they want to. It's going to be a couple of under the radar moves and not much more. The players we have are going to have to play better.



It's pretty much all about this. If Aguilar can keep his little mini-resurgence going, that'd be great. Shaw figuring it out would help, but that'd be a bonus at this point.

Cain, Aguilar, Chacin, Burnes all need to perform closer to what they're capable of. If that happens and it need to start to happen in the next couple weeks, then it makes sense to go out and add a reliever. If those players don't get it going, then selling a few select players would make more sense and go into next year trying to re-load and bounce back.


Imo, the NL this year, outside of LA, is as weak as it’s gonna be for as far as my eyes can see.

LA- max payroll/Friedman > elite for years ahead
Atlanta- just scratching the surface.
Phil- $$$
SD- next year big leap.
Col- Young team getting better
Cinc- Young Team/strong farm/better
Pitt- Young Team/strong farm/better
Chic- still gonna be good

Imo, we have our best window to win this year and next, we can win the central this year and next with the right moves, and it starts at this year’s deadline. How we do in the next 2 weeks doesn’t effect what needs done at the deadline. This team is ready to go on a run at some point in the near future, and with 2 pen arms added(D.Williams?Last year’s Burnes2.0)bat?, starter?, this team can get there.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#52

Posted: July 11, 2019, 10:47 AM Post
Posts: 17369
Brewcrewin07 said:
I'm not going to "go for it" when the talent level clearly isn't good enough to make the playoffs. You play 5 game series and 7 game series in baseball, anything can happen. We've seen it many times before. Conversely, I'm not sure why so many are hesitant to trade "prospects"?? They are just that...unproven talent. When has a small market team ever been in playoff contention every year?? It just doesn't happen, and hasn't happened. When you have the chance to make the playoffs, you simply have to go for it..next year isn't guaranteed for anything.


Well this is how we were operating 5-10 years ago. The problem is you eventually completely deplete your farm system and have no trade chips left to make these deals, (we were in a position where one of our top prospects, Erik Komatsu was good enough to land....a 35 year old Jerry Hairston) and at some point your veterans are weaker, you can't retain the better ones and you end up in a rebuild which we did. .

It isn't that bad yet, but we already don't have much of a farm system left. Who specifically are these big acquisitions you want to make and who are you giving up to get them? Again, if it's truly a huge get, most 'contenders' which is probably half the league, will be in on it, and guys like Freddy Peralta and Orlando Arcia aren't going to cut it when you're competing with farm systems like Houston, Atlanta, and San Diego.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#53

Posted: July 11, 2019, 1:45 PM Post
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Location: Chicago
I suppose the real answer to what the Brewers GM should do is driven by what your interest is as a fan: A.) Do you want to see the Brewers be aggressive and do what they have to in trying to make the playoffs when they are a contender (which also probably leads to some lean years down the road); or B.) Do you want to see them be conservative but generally be around .500 year in, year out, maybe catching some breaks once a decade or so and make the playoffs?

I'm okay with them being aggressive. It was so much more entertaining to follow the team in 2008, 2011 and 2018 than it was in 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2014 for example. Further, if your drafting in the bottom half of the round its not as though the team is going to be stock piling blue chip prospects year in and year out, so a couple of lean years after being aggressive is probably better for the system anyways.


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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#54

Posted: July 11, 2019, 2:05 PM Post
Posts: 4216
Location: Madison, WI
One thing that popped into my head scanning through this and kind of unintended consequence of the one deadline is that adding that bench bat (like Grandy last year) isn't really possible in the normal way anymore since roster expansion doesn't happen for a month. so whatever bench bat you get would have to replace one of the bench guys we currently have. Obviously we have room to improve on Salad/PErez but obviously you're limited to SS ability only. It's not so easy just to grab an extra bat for the sake of it anymore.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#55

Posted: July 11, 2019, 2:13 PM Post
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Wahoo Maniac said:
I'd focus on one trade. Stroman and Giles package. It's 1 move but feels like 2 given Houser gets bumped to the pen bolstering it with Giles. I'd look at using Arcia and Peralta as MLB guys to include in the package.


I could get behind that.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#56

Posted: July 11, 2019, 2:21 PM Post
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homer said:
Wahoo Maniac said:
I'd focus on one trade. Stroman and Giles package. It's 1 move but feels like 2 given Houser gets bumped to the pen bolstering it with Giles. I'd look at using Arcia and Peralta as MLB guys to include in the package.


I could get behind that.


This makes a lot of sense. Throw in Corey Ray and a young lottery guy and call it a done deal. Stroman and Giles for this year and next year fits pretty dang well.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#57

Posted: July 11, 2019, 2:38 PM Post
Posts: 498
I'd be on board with this idea as well, but I still question if a package of Arcia, Freddy, Ray + lottery ticket is enough to get a deal like this done? Do we have any idea what type of value Arcia and Freddy still have - now that both have been up 2-3 years with varied success at the MLB level? Also, does Corey Ray have much value anymore? Seems like somewhat of a lopsided trade package in our favor here - at least on paper.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#58

Posted: July 11, 2019, 2:45 PM Post
Posts: 913
I think that if we see any major moves, they'll be for a player with multiple years of team control remaining; I don't think Stearns will be in on the expensive rentals. If no major move like that (And I'm not sure if there are any like that out there) we'll see cheaper rentals. Finding this years Gio, Swarzak or Soria on the pitching side, Neil Walker or Mike Moustakas on the position player side. And I again think Stearns will try to get what he can for prospects on the 40-man (Diplan, Stokes, Taylor) or impending minor league FAs and Rule 5 candidates. Fairly slim pickings overall there, but at least relievers (Certainly ones with some money left on their contract) can be had for relatively little. That's not to say there won't be some more highly rated prospects traded for bigger targets, but I don't think that's the primary focus.

And I'm fine with that. I think the team is better than the negative run differential would suggest (Cain, Aguilar, Burnes, Chacin etc. will almost certainly be better in the 2nd half than the 1st), but I don't think it's all that much better. Not good enough that any move the Brewers can realistically make would turn the team into a real WS contender. Any team *can* win once they're in the playoffs, but even adding the best starter and best closer available on the market won't make the Brewers the favourite against the Dodgers, let alone the Yankees or Astros. If our division standings looked like the NLE but with us instead of the Braves, I'd be much more inclined to make bigger moves. But combine how much the team needs to improve, and that said improvement might not even result in getting to the playoffs, and the limited resources to make those moves, and I don't see how any big moves really "move the needle" enough to justify their cost. Deadline deals, especially for the better players, are almost always poor value. And that's fine if they push you over the edge, but bring in a rebuild without nothing to show for the "window" if they don't.

I'd also leave any business to relatively late in the month, to better gauge whether there's any point to it to begin with. If both the division lead and the WC slip further away it might even be more prudent to trade the impending free agents (Moustakas and Grandal in particular) instead.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#59

Posted: July 11, 2019, 2:49 PM Post
Posts: 402
madtownhawk said:
I'd be on board with this idea as well, but I still question if a package of Arcia, Freddy, Ray + lottery ticket is enough to get a deal like this done? Do we have any idea what type of value Arcia and Freddy still have - now that both have been up 2-3 years with varied success at the MLB level? Also, does Corey Ray have much value anymore? Seems like somewhat of a lopsided trade package in our favor here - at least on paper.



We know all these answers! OK I am getting a little too much mileage out of the trade value site but it's fun.

Stroman and Giles = 37.5 total value
Arcia, Peralta, Ray = 49.8

So no need for Ray or a lottery pick...


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#60

Posted: July 11, 2019, 3:16 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
OldHeidelberg said:
madtownhawk said:
I'd be on board with this idea as well, but I still question if a package of Arcia, Freddy, Ray + lottery ticket is enough to get a deal like this done? Do we have any idea what type of value Arcia and Freddy still have - now that both have been up 2-3 years with varied success at the MLB level? Also, does Corey Ray have much value anymore? Seems like somewhat of a lopsided trade package in our favor here - at least on paper.



We know all these answers! OK I am getting a little too much mileage out of the trade value site but it's fun.

Stroman and Giles = 37.5 total value
Arcia, Peralta, Ray = 49.8

So no need for Ray or a lottery pick...

Not that it's very accurate or realistic but, again, it points to your MLB players as being your best trade chips as good or promising young MLB players always hold more value than a prospect so we shouldn't just be looking at prospects to trade.

Out of curiosity what's the total value of Peralta, Ray, Dubon?

Arcia has 3.5yrs control on his rookie contract, has proven to be a plus defender and has flashed a solid bat over his 400 games. If the Jays believe in the development of his bat/approach they'll see a lot of value in him. He turns 28 with 2 months left on his contract and can anchor the young talented IF there. He has plenty of value. Peralta has 5.5yrs and is a big K guy. He's been inconsistent but when he's on he's really good. He'll have a lot of value as well. They're basically swapping 1.5yrs of a proven successful vet for 5.5yrs of young potential who's flashed success and 1.5yrs of a great pen arm for 3.5yrs of a starting SS. I think it's a win/win. Then again maybe the Jays want prospects and not MLB guys, which is why something like Peralta, Dubon, Ray might be more enticing given the control and how close they are to being MLB ready.


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