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OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do

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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#61

Posted: July 11, 2019, 3:38 PM Post
Posts: 403
Wahoo Maniac said:
Not that it's very accurate or realistic but, again, it points to your MLB players as being your best trade chips as good or promising young MLB players always hold more value than a prospect so we shouldn't just be looking at prospects to trade.

Out of curiosity what's the total value of Peralta, Ray, Dubon?

Arcia has 3.5yrs control on his rookie contract, has proven to be a plus defender and has flashed a solid bat over his 400 games. If the Jays believe in the development of his bat/approach they'll see a lot of value in him. He turns 28 with 2 months left on his contract and can anchor the young talented IF there. He has plenty of value. Peralta has 5.5yrs and is a big K guy. He's been inconsistent but when he's on he's really good. He'll have a lot of value as well. They're basically swapping 1.5yrs of a proven successful vet for 5.5yrs of young potential who's flashed success and 1.5yrs of a great pen arm for 3.5yrs of a starting SS. I think it's a win/win. Then again maybe the Jays want prospects and not MLB guys, which is why something like Peralta, Dubon, Ray might be more enticing given the control and how close they are to being MLB ready.


I totally agree about the value of young MLB players, especially ones who were good prospects like Arcia and Peralta. But yeah tough to find a fit when you are trying to add arms at the deadline, a team like the Mets that always tries to contend would probably take the major league guys but not sure about the Jays. Like you say they are trading guys who can't help now for guys who could 2 or 3 years down the road.

Peralta 14.7
Ray 11
Dubon 5.8

So it falls a little short but these are just numbers some system is spitting out, that's not a bad trade package at all IMO.


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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#62

Posted: July 11, 2019, 3:48 PM Post
Posts: 17380
I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.


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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#63

Posted: July 11, 2019, 4:02 PM Post
Posts: 1988
Giles missed time in June with elbow tendinitis > no way I want him, too scary.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#64

Posted: July 11, 2019, 4:04 PM Post
Posts: 403
adambr2 said:
I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.


Well now that it's out there it will be interesting to see how the deadline trades match up. I do agree that you overpay for pitching at the deadline in general and they are right to deal them separately, the combined deal is a pipe dream unless an elite prospect is involved.

I do think Brewer fans here weirdly underrate the value of their own players and overvalue other teams. I guess it's because we watch them so much closer. I look at the career number of guys like Stroman and Boyd and see another Davies yet guys talk about them demanding Hiura and Kyle Tucker and I just don't see it. I don't think I am reading too much into the site, they are trying to give a number for actual value not deadline value so we need to adjust for that. I mean at least it is a number from a neutral source and not just talk about hanging up the phone and the like.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#65

Posted: July 11, 2019, 8:17 PM Post
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I think DS will add an reliever and not a starter that we have been talking about just a hunch


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#66

Posted: July 12, 2019, 10:28 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
adambr2 said:
I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.

No, we're not reading too much into that site. He literally just chimed in saying what the numbers broke down too after it was already discussed a bit, not vice versa.

Yes, I know they've said they want to deal them separately but if one team is able to offer what they're looking for in totality then why would they do two different deals? Ray had a ton of value heading into this season and broke his finger in spring training then didn't tell anyone because he wanted to play. Nobody is putting any stock into his AAA numbers. His injury isn't career altering and now he's back. The only thing that sucks is him missing the first half of the season. He has plenty of value and very well might be less than 1yr away from MLB.

Of course they're going to be expensive. But Arcia, Peralta, Ray isn't remotely close to a cheap package value wise. It just matters how the Jays value a package like this over competing ones. Will other competing teams also view Stroman as the brand he is or the actual performer he is? Because his performance doesn't match his brand (ie he's performed like a really good mid-rotation while having the brand of a frontline starter)


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#67

Posted: July 12, 2019, 1:05 PM Post
Posts: 4577
Location: New Berlin, WI
https://twitter.com/AdamMcCalvy/status/ ... 4726367233

Let's play the what if game. If Corey Ray looks really good and puts up strong numbers over the next 2 weeks in AA, any chance we can get value out of him in a trade? I feel like it would be heavily dependent on scouting, or making a trade with a bad franchise like the Marlins.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#68

Posted: July 12, 2019, 7:28 PM Post
Posts: 271
KeithStone53151 said:
https://twitter.com/AdamMcCalvy/status/1149754874726367233

Let's play the what if game. If Corey Ray looks really good and puts up strong numbers over the next 2 weeks in AA, any chance we can get value out of him in a trade? I feel like it would be heavily dependent on scouting, or making a trade with a bad franchise like the Marlins.


Zero chance. Ray is playing himself out of top prospect status. 2016 at A+ .247/.307... 2017 again at A+ .238/.311... 2018 at AA .239/.323. 2019 before getting hurt at AAA .178/.259.. 49 Ks in 112 PAs. Until Ray proves he can hit better pitching, his value won't be anything other than a lower end of a package.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#69

Posted: July 12, 2019, 7:39 PM Post
Posts: 271
Wahoo Maniac said:
adambr2 said:
I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.

No, we're not reading too much into that site. He literally just chimed in saying what the numbers broke down too after it was already discussed a bit, not vice versa.

Yes, I know they've said they want to deal them separately but if one team is able to offer what they're looking for in totality then why would they do two different deals? Ray had a ton of value heading into this season and broke his finger in spring training then didn't tell anyone because he wanted to play. Nobody is putting any stock into his AAA numbers. His injury isn't career altering and now he's back. The only thing that sucks is him missing the first half of the season. He has plenty of value and very well might be less than 1yr away from MLB.

Of course they're going to be expensive. But Arcia, Peralta, Ray isn't remotely close to a cheap package value wise. It just matters how the Jays value a package like this over competing ones. Will other competing teams also view Stroman as the brand he is or the actual performer he is? Because his performance doesn't match his brand (ie he's performed like a really good mid-rotation while having the brand of a frontline starter)


You value Arcia, Peralta, Ray highly. Many others look at how they are performing and don't see anywhere near what you do. Arcia is not playing that well. CC said his defense is lacking and he is hitting .238/.300.. The Jays have Galvis at SS and he is out performing Arcia. Peralta has been rocked consistently the last two years. He has been decent at times, but his lack of secondary pitches is a glaring weakness. Ray had one year where he hit a lot of HRs, but he hasn't hit above .240 from A+ through AAA ball. Right now none of the three would headline a package for Stroman.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#70

Posted: July 12, 2019, 7:39 PM Post
Posts: 271
Wahoo Maniac said:
adambr2 said:
I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.

No, we're not reading too much into that site. He literally just chimed in saying what the numbers broke down too after it was already discussed a bit, not vice versa.

Yes, I know they've said they want to deal them separately but if one team is able to offer what they're looking for in totality then why would they do two different deals? Ray had a ton of value heading into this season and broke his finger in spring training then didn't tell anyone because he wanted to play. Nobody is putting any stock into his AAA numbers. His injury isn't career altering and now he's back. The only thing that sucks is him missing the first half of the season. He has plenty of value and very well might be less than 1yr away from MLB.

Of course they're going to be expensive. But Arcia, Peralta, Ray isn't remotely close to a cheap package value wise. It just matters how the Jays value a package like this over competing ones. Will other competing teams also view Stroman as the brand he is or the actual performer he is? Because his performance doesn't match his brand (ie he's performed like a really good mid-rotation while having the brand of a frontline starter)


You value Arcia, Peralta, Ray highly. Many others look at how they are performing and don't see anywhere near what you do. Arcia is not playing that well. CC said his defense is lacking and he is hitting .238/.300.. The Jays have Galvis at SS and he is out performing Arcia. Peralta has been rocked consistently the last two years. He has been decent at times, but his lack of secondary pitches is a glaring weakness. Ray had one year where he hit a lot of HRs, but he hasn't hit above .240 from A+ through AAA ball. Right now none of the three would headline a package for Stroman.


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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#71

Posted: July 12, 2019, 8:23 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.

Every team has a package of players they could put together that matches in terms of “trade value”, but the fit of the buyer’s assets with the preferences of the seller obviously matters most. In the case of the Blue Jays they are said to want starting pitching prospects. My assumption is if the Blue Jays packaged Stroman and Giles they would want a starting pitcher that projects to have a higher FV than Freddy Peralta (and higher likelihood to remain in as a starter).


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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#72

Posted: July 12, 2019, 10:40 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
-Sell Moose and bring up Shaw to play 3B.
-Sell Thames and let Aguilar play 1B.
-Sell Grandal and see what you have in Nottingham.
-Sell Chacin, is you can.

That should cover it for free agents to be. Stock up the farm again. Tell Moose and Yaz we will talk in the winter when we’ve figured out this mess of a pitching staff.


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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#73

Posted: July 12, 2019, 10:53 PM Post
Posts: 1988
Brew4U said:
-Sell Moose and bring up Shaw to play 3B.
-Sell Thames and let Aguilar play 1B.
-Sell Grandal and see what you have in Nottingham.
-Sell Chacin, is you can.

That should cover it for free agents to be. Stock up the farm again. Tell Moose and Yaz we will talk in the winter when we’ve figured out this mess of a pitching staff.


Not going to stock the farm selling those 4 players.


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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#74

Posted: July 12, 2019, 11:03 PM Post
Posts: 17380
Chacin is worth nothing. If anyone will take him, it's a salary dump.

I'm fine with selling Thames and starting Jesus full time, but I wouldn't just give him away.

Trading the rentals are probably a good move. I just don't think the return will overwhelm.


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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#75

Posted: July 12, 2019, 11:07 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Brew crew 92 said:
Brew4U said:
-Sell Moose and bring up Shaw to play 3B.
-Sell Thames and let Aguilar play 1B.
-Sell Grandal and see what you have in Nottingham.
-Sell Chacin, is you can.

That should cover it for free agents to be. Stock up the farm again. Tell Moose and Yaz we will talk in the winter when we’ve figured out this mess of a pitching staff.


Not going to stock the farm selling those 4 players.


Yeah, you’re right. Those players are worthless. Wouldn’t get anyone of promise for them. No contending team could use an all star catcher, third basemen, or a .900 OPS’ing 1B. What was I thinking...


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#76

Posted: July 13, 2019, 7:31 AM Post
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I think they could move Chacin and get salary relief and maybe a lottery ticket or two.

I'd be REALLY interested to see if they look to move Cain. He's obviously a large part of the team's success last year, but that contract is looking like a 'hold my beer' level albatross over the next few years. It'd be interesting to see if they'd to a swap for another larger contract like Grienke with some team that isn't good at baseball-ing.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#77

Posted: July 13, 2019, 7:43 AM Post
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I'd be shocked if any decisions are made before July 30th. The next 17 days will determine the path.

Unless they win 75% of their games the rest of the month, I don't see any major acquisitions. Likely a couple of deadline free-agent-to-be acquisitions that will only cost a Marcos Diplan, Bowden Francis, Alec Bettinger, Troy Stokes type of prospect(s), someone like an Anthony Swarzak/Xavier Cedeno bullpen acquisition.

I don't see them selling either, unless they lose 75% of their games the rest of the month.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#78

Posted: July 13, 2019, 7:49 AM Post
Posts: 11984
LouisEly said:
I'd be shocked if any decisions are made before July 30th. The next 17 days will determine the path.

Unless they win 75% of their games the rest of the month, I don't see any major acquisitions. Likely a couple of deadline free-agent-to-be acquisitions that will only cost a Marcos Diplan, Bowden Francis, Alec Bettinger, Troy Stokes type of prospect(s), someone like an Anthony Swarzak/Xavier Cedeno bullpen acquisition.

I don't see them selling either, unless they lose 75% of their games the rest of the month.


Waiting until July 30th and not doing anything during the break seals their fate. This team is more likely to finish sub .500 than make the playoffs. The bullpen needs at least 2 late inning quality relievers as long as Counsell insists on pulling Anderson after 75 or so pitches.


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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#79

Posted: July 13, 2019, 8:22 AM Post
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Standing pat and receiving nothing for our expiring contracts is not a good choice.


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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do
#80

Posted: July 13, 2019, 8:29 AM Post
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i agree and most can't wait and need to sell high


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