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OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do

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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do

Posted: July 13, 2019, 9:16 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Brew4U said:
Standing pat and receiving nothing for our expiring contracts is not a good choice.

This is correct. But it only applies if said team isn't competitive. They're 1.5 games back in the division right now and .5 games back in WC. You're not making decisions to sell them off right now.

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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do

Posted: July 13, 2019, 9:19 AM Post
Posts: 735
LouisEly said:
I'd be shocked if any decisions are made before July 30th. The next 17 days will determine the path.

Unless they win 75% of their games the rest of the month, I don't see any major acquisitions. Likely a couple of deadline free-agent-to-be acquisitions that will only cost a Marcos Diplan, Bowden Francis, Alec Bettinger, Troy Stokes type of prospect(s), someone like an Anthony Swarzak/Xavier Cedeno bullpen acquisition.

I don't see them selling either, unless they lose 75% of their games the rest of the month.

Yeah if we were just competing for a wildcard I think the selling decision would be easier but with the division wide open I think they owe it to the fans to at least stay the course and see what happens. Like a lot of us this morning I am not feeling too good about our chances, they better make those relief pitcher acquisitions soon.

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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do

Posted: July 13, 2019, 9:29 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
wntrtxn21 said:
Wahoo Maniac said:
No, we're not reading too much into that site. He literally just chimed in saying what the numbers broke down too after it was already discussed a bit, not vice versa.

Yes, I know they've said they want to deal them separately but if one team is able to offer what they're looking for in totality then why would they do two different deals? Ray had a ton of value heading into this season and broke his finger in spring training then didn't tell anyone because he wanted to play. Nobody is putting any stock into his AAA numbers. His injury isn't career altering and now he's back. The only thing that sucks is him missing the first half of the season. He has plenty of value and very well might be less than 1yr away from MLB.

Of course they're going to be expensive. But Arcia, Peralta, Ray isn't remotely close to a cheap package value wise. It just matters how the Jays value a package like this over competing ones. Will other competing teams also view Stroman as the brand he is or the actual performer he is? Because his performance doesn't match his brand (ie he's performed like a really good mid-rotation while having the brand of a frontline starter)

You value Arcia, Peralta, Ray highly. Many others look at how they are performing and don't see anywhere near what you do. Arcia is not playing that well. CC said his defense is lacking and he is hitting .238/.300.. The Jays have Galvis at SS and he is out performing Arcia. Peralta has been rocked consistently the last two years. He has been decent at times, but his lack of secondary pitches is a glaring weakness. Ray had one year where he hit a lot of HRs, but he hasn't hit above .240 from A+ through AAA ball. Right now none of the three would headline a package for Stroman.

The difference between me and you (along with many others) is that I make sure to objectively analyze each player while factoring in as many variables as possible, including those that can't be measured statistically, as opposed to looking at a final stat line believing that tells the entire story.

I've CLEARLY stated it's based on how the Jays (insert any other team here) value Arcia. I've never once said Arcia has excellent value. I've said he holds plenty of value still due to his pedigree, age, control (3.5yrs), defense (which will come back to plus) and offensive flashes (if the Jays believe he develops more consistency they'll value him highly). Yes, the Jays have Galvis who has an option for next year where he's set to make 5.5M whereas Arcia is heading into arbitration and what do you think he'll make after his 2018/2019? A: nowhere near 5.5M then he'll have an additional 2yrs control after that. Will Galvis continue to perform at that level or at his previous level, in which case Arcia holds more value due to the aforementioned.

Peralta, like Arcia, is talented but lacks consistency. He's flashed domination at this level at ages 21/22. He has a plus curve and pretty decent change so if the control of those pitches become more consistent (and actually called since we never call them) he's a very good rotation arm then. Again, young with potential who's flashed at this level. A young, talented MLB player who's flashed dominance has more value than most prospects. Also, Shane Bieber got hit last year too giving up 10.2 H9. A year later he's an AS. He obviously has more control than Peralta so can consistently use his secondary pitches. But Peralta is a year younger and has cut his BB9 almost in half while keeping his K9 the same. There's been improvements incertain areas and setbacks in others.

When it comes to Ray you're intentionally ignoring context and other variables. He's made mechanical adjustments since his first season and if I recall correctly, essentially played all of A+ with a knee injury affecting him. Then came back 100% healthy for the first time since being drafted and put up a big AA. No, he didn't just hit a bunch of HR. He hit 32 doubles, 7 triples, stole 37 bases, had a OBP 85pts higher than his BA with a 137 wrc+ playing good defense in CF (premium position). And while 1yr young for level isn't that young you also need to factor in that the greatest jump in the minors is jumping into AA. Ray then looked great in spring training until he broke his finger or tore a ligament in it (whatever it was) then he played April with that injury before he was shut down. He didn't perform like garbage "then" get injured - he was injured before the regular season began hence my statement nobody is going to buy into his performance this April because he was injured (fingers are kind of important for hitters). He was put back in the Top 100 heading into this season, meaning scouts/teams (not all obviously) see a lot of potential in him. Other teams might value him as the 3rd best prospect in our system while others might value him as the top (excluding Hiura here). He absolutely has value regardless.

I don't expect us to trade for Stroman anyway. I just think him and Giles should at least be targets and I think we're in a spot right now where trading some young MLB talent is the way to go instead of just prospects.

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Online  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do

Posted: July 13, 2019, 9:47 AM Post
Posts: 2167
Location: Madison, WI
Hate to think that a small sample size like 7-10 days can really swing big decisions that could really affect the future of the franchise. But I think that's where the Brewers are at.

I would have been a pretty aggressive buyer just a week ago, Hiura off-the-board but everyone else available in the right deal. After last night's game, I'd shift to being a very conservative buyer. At this point I'd be completely removing Hiura, Turang, Ray, Lutz, Brown, Dubon, Ashby, Feliciano, Grisham and Supak which would limit my buying to non-elite relievers. I just would have a hard time making significant investments in this club with the way they've played lately. 8-16 in the last 24 games with 100% of those games coming against teams with losing records.

Brewers have 7-10 games to get their stuff in order. They have games against the Braves and Diamondbacks coming up, if they look bad in those series it would be pretty easy to flip the switch and be a seller.

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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do

Posted: July 15, 2019, 8:00 AM Post
Posts: 4924
At this stage, after all these losses, Stearns needs to trade Moose and Grandal. Get back upside prospects that are more along than the draft picks would have been. Shaw at 3rd. Pina at catcher easy full time replacements. You just can't find enough fixings for the team with our minors. Hiura has to be thought of right now as #4 most important player behind Yelich, Hader, and Woodruff. So after him we're only offering up projects. Not one other stud to a team. And that's for the first trade! You have at least 3 to make.

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Offline  Re: OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do

Posted: July 15, 2019, 9:29 AM Post
Posts: 505
I think the team is going to get a big dose of humble pie in this series against the Braves. Assuming that happens, I would go into full sell mode. I would look to move Grandal, Moose, any of our relievers not named Hader, and I would see if there is a taker out there for Arcia and Braun. Shaw, Pina, and Dubon become every day starters rest of season, and hopefully we pick up a nice stable of prospects to replenish the farm system.

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