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Mets and Brewers talking Thor?

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Offline  Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#1

Posted: July 09, 2019, 11:41 PM Post
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Location: The dark fields of the republic
Morosi stirs the pot, as is his wont:

https://www.mlb.com/news/noah-syndergaard-trade-possibilities

I find it hard to believe this is in any way likely, but we aren’t too far removed from Stearns having the reputation of a man who zigs when expected to zag, so I suppose anything is possible.

The linked article states that, according to the infamous unnamed sources, the Brewers are “monitoring” Syndergaard, which presumably means—well, that’s unclear. Brewers have had scouts at his starts, perhaps? Or they’ve called to express interest, as intimated by the article? Morosi’s tea leaves are murkier than I would find palatable if it were my cup I was staring at, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

This gets me thinking about what it would take to land him. The headline itself suggests a king’s ransom, and that is to be expected. The Mets are the Mets of lore for good reason, and it’s easy to start playing the fantasy game of wondering just how poor a trade that organization could make. Peralta, Arcia, Turang...? Surely such a blunder would get their GM fired, and he’s in hot enough water already. By any objective standard, those three don’t approach 2/3’s of Thor’s value, and at least another high-end prospect would be required—Ray at minimum, no doubt, and the Mets would want another pitcher, too. Steep, indeed, and a painful subtraction from the team’s future.

But the legitimacy of a Syndergaard-Woodruff pairing going into any potential playoff series is quite tantalizing, no?

What is best in life? To crush the Cardinals, Cubs, and Manny Machado, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their fanboys.


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Online  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#2

Posted: July 10, 2019, 12:10 AM Post
Posts: 4711
Thor is not arby-eligible until after 2020, and hits free agency after 2022. He is 26, but this year has seen a bit of a regression, with ERA up over 1.60 from previous years.

I'd offer Orlando Arcia, Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan, and Caden Lemons.

Then, try to get Thor to sign a 6-year, $84 million extension.
($12 million bonus, $12 million per year)


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#3

Posted: July 10, 2019, 12:38 AM Post
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clancyphile said:
Thor is not arby-eligible until after 2020, and hits free agency after 2022. He is 26, but this year has seen a bit of a regression, with ERA up over 1.60 from previous years.

I'd offer Orlando Arcia, Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan, and Caden Lemons.

Then, try to get Thor to sign a 6-year, $84 million extension.
($12 million bonus, $12 million per year)


Thor was arby eligible LAST year as a super 2. He avoided arbitration both last year and this year by signing before it came before the panel. '20 and '21 are his last 2 arby eligible years.

He will command more than the Brewers are willing to give up (I hope). I'd guess the starting point would be Peralta and Burnes and Turang or Hiura.


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Online  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#4

Posted: July 10, 2019, 12:39 AM Post
Posts: 4711
Oxy said:
clancyphile said:
Thor is not arby-eligible until after 2020, and hits free agency after 2022. He is 26, but this year has seen a bit of a regression, with ERA up over 1.60 from previous years.

I'd offer Orlando Arcia, Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan, and Caden Lemons.

Then, try to get Thor to sign a 6-year, $84 million extension.
($12 million bonus, $12 million per year)


Thor was arby eligible LAST year as a super 2. He avoided arbitration both last year and this year by signing before it came before the panel. '20 and '21 are his last 2 arby eligible years.

He will command more than the Brewers are willing to give up (I hope). I'd guess the starting point would be Peralta and Burnes and Turang.


For me to even consider that, the Mets would have to be offering Thor and McNeil


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#5

Posted: July 10, 2019, 4:53 AM Post
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clancyphile said:
Oxy said:
Thor was arby eligible LAST year as a super 2. He avoided arbitration both last year and this year by signing before it came before the panel. '20 and '21 are his last 2 arby eligible years.

He will command more than the Brewers are willing to give up (I hope). I'd guess the starting point would be Peralta and Burnes and Turang.


For me to even consider that, the Mets would have to be offering Thor and McNeil

The ship has sailed on any chance to acquire Jeff McNeil. I would have loved for the Brewers to make a run at him this past off-season, but with his continued success this year he is going to be a staple of their lineup for years to come. The best chance for an impact bat from the Mets at this point is to target corner IF/OF J.D. Davis, but that is a completely different thread for a different day.

The only way I could see the Brewers acquiring Syndergaard without giving up Keston Hiura would be to take on some of the Mets bad contracts. The good news is the Mets have plenty of those to unload. There is no way the Brewers would take on the contract of Robinson Cano, but beyond him they possess overpriced commitments to players such as Yoenis Cespedes, Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie, Juan Lagares, and Jason Vargas.

If the Mets were financially motivated to move either Cespedes’ contract or a couple of the other contracts combined, and the Brewers were somehow willing to take on the underwater financial commitments then maybe there would be a slim chance you could get Syndergaard for Burnes/Peralta, Turang, Lutz, etc.

I would be ecstatic to see the Brewers acquire Thor, but I have a hard time seeing this one as a match.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#6

Posted: July 10, 2019, 6:22 AM Post
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I suppose Syndergaard is only available because the Mets area franchise in disarray.

If Jose Quintana with 3.5 years of team control cost the Cubs Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease and others.

The Brewers don’t have a comparable prospect to Jimenez and trading Syndergaard for lower level minor leaguers signals the Mets are going to rebuild; thus they’d likely demand Turang, Lutz, Devin Williams, and a pitcher Bettinger, Ashby etc.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#7

Posted: July 10, 2019, 6:42 AM Post
Posts: 2056
clancyphile said:
Thor...

I'd offer Orlando Arcia, Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan, and Caden Lemons.
)


Not even close to what the Mets would need to seriously look at the deal. Mets can still hold on to him for another year and still trade him, so they will be holding out for the kings ransom.

I don't even think we could trade the Mets Arcia if we wanted, they would want Dubon or Turang.

I would think Turang, Peralta, Ray, Ashby would be the ask for 2.5 years of Syndergaard. Considering he will be paid a steep arby pricetag the last two years and his play has come down some maybe you pay less - but the Mets GM could play it safe and keep him another year easily. There is no motivation to sell unless he knows he is getting a good haul.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#8

Posted: July 10, 2019, 6:59 AM Post
Posts: 1392
Jopal78! said:
I suppose Syndergaard is only available because the Mets area franchise in disarray.

If Jose Quintana with 3.5 years of team control cost the Cubs Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease and others.

The Brewers don’t have a comparable prospect to Jimenez and trading Syndergaard for lower level minor leaguers signals the Mets are going to rebuild; thus they’d likely demand Turang, Lutz, Devin Williams, and a pitcher Bettinger, Ashby etc.




Well, I hate the "If this team had to give up these propsects for this pitcher, then we'd have to give up these prospect for this pitcher," type logic. It makes sense, but sometimes you overpay. The Cubs did that with Quintana and they did that much-much worse in another trade that's been cited in the Chapman trade.

I understand doing it for Chapman, not for Quintana.


That said, I'm not trading Turang, Rassmussen, Keston or Burnes. 3 of them because of their pure ability, Rassmussen because I just don't think teams are going to value him that highly after such a short stint. More likely they're going to try to get him thrown in there with a couple other more highly touted prospects.

Turang is going to end up being a really highly ranked prospect IMO and he's going to be a prototypical leadoff hitter for a while-while sticking at SS.

He's everything you'd want except for I don't think he has that real big arm at SS. I've seen and agree with Trea Turner comps.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#9

Posted: July 10, 2019, 7:07 AM Post
Posts: 1392
clancyphile said:
Thor is not arby-eligible until after 2020, and hits free agency after 2022. He is 26, but this year has seen a bit of a regression, with ERA up over 1.60 from previous years.

I'd offer Orlando Arcia, Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan, and Caden Lemons.

Then, try to get Thor to sign a 6-year, $84 million extension.
($12 million bonus, $12 million per year)


Why not REALLY sweeten the pot and go all in with Cam Roegner?

It doesn't even make sense to call if that's all you're going to offer. You would probably lose credibility as a GM if that was your starting point. It'd be one thing if Arcia and Peralta were off to big starts, but they're not and Diplan and Lemons are nothing. They're throw-in's. Diplan is hardly that. Lemons is a guy you keep around because JUUUST maybe one day.


That's a lot closer to what you'd offer for Jason Vargas than it is for what you'd offer for Syndergaard. And frankly, I don't even want Syndergaard unless you could get him for such a laughably cheap package. I kinda feel like he derailed his career when he forced the Mets to let him start when they knew he was injured and then ended up missing a big chunk of the season a couple years ago.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#10

Posted: July 10, 2019, 7:22 AM Post
Posts: 602
OnTheBlack said:
clancyphile said:
Thor is not arby-eligible until after 2020, and hits free agency after 2022. He is 26, but this year has seen a bit of a regression, with ERA up over 1.60 from previous years.

I'd offer Orlando Arcia, Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan, and Caden Lemons.

Then, try to get Thor to sign a 6-year, $84 million extension.
($12 million bonus, $12 million per year)


Why not REALLY sweeten the pot and go all in with Cam Roegner?

It doesn't even make sense to call if that's all you're going to offer. You would probably lose credibility as a GM if that was your starting point. It'd be one thing if Arcia and Peralta were off to big starts, but they're not and Diplan and Lemons are nothing. They're throw-in's. Diplan is hardly that. Lemons is a guy you keep around because JUUUST maybe one day.


That's a lot closer to what you'd offer for Jason Vargas than it is for what you'd offer for Syndergaard. And frankly, I don't even want Syndergaard unless you could get him for such a laughably cheap package. I kinda feel like he derailed his career when he forced the Mets to let him start when they knew he was injured and then ended up missing a big chunk of the season a couple years ago.


Yeah, there is simply no way that a package of Arcia, Peralta, Diplan and Lemons is going to land you a guy like Thor - even if he is having a down year. I'd have to think the Mets would demand Hiura in the package, and then you'd probably also have to go with either Peralta/Burnes and then probably either Ashby/Rasmussen. And, honestly - that might not even be the best offer on the table?


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#11

Posted: July 10, 2019, 7:31 AM Post
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I doubt that Hiura is on the table in any trade packages, but there is probably a way to create a package that doesn't include Hiura. If the Mets are looking for helium prospects, a package of Turang, Ashby and Grisham perhaps gets the deal done. Other guys who are having strong seasons who may interest the Mets include Dubon, Payton Henry, Supak, Feliciano, Rasmussen, Nottingham and Bello. The Mets also originally drafted Adam Hill, so they obviously like him.

If the Mets are looking for high upside, buy-low types, the system is full of them. Those aren't typically the types you see dealt this time of year, though. If a team is trading a star at the deadline, they are going to want guys who are performing in the minors.


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Online  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#12

Posted: July 10, 2019, 7:36 AM Post
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Cool. How do we get Dominic Smith in the deal too?

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#13

Posted: July 10, 2019, 7:51 AM Post
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I think the fair asking price on Syndergaard probably should have dropped significantly over the last few months. His best year occurred in 2016...generally I take the three year splits...and we are far enough into this season where I'd use a pro-rated 2019 WAR value and throw out 2016. Production in 2017 was minimal (injury) and he's been very good in terms of peripherals in 2019 but not very good in terms of run prevention.

Yearly bWAR/fWAR average:
2016 = 5.45
2017 = 0.95 (only 7 starts)
2018 = 4.10
2019 (pro-rated to full season) = 2.35
Four year average = 3.2
Three year average = 2.5

Mets would likely argue that the 2017 number is artificially low due to injury and the multi-year average numbers should be adjusted up...I'd guess they would still look for 4+ WAR per season compensation, although I think it's pretty unlikely they would get that, even for a hard-throwing type like Syndergaard. If they do, it would put his surplus value at around 66 million which would be extremely difficult for the Brewers to achieve. They would need to include so many minor leaguers not named Hiura that it's almost impossible that a deal could be reached. At this point, if Stearns really, really, really wanted Syndergaard, then it would really make more sense to just offer Hiura and then get the Mets to add in a reliever to make it a fair deal. If one believes Syndergaard is at least a 4 WAR player moving forward, then a Hiura for Syndergaard + Seth Lugo deal would be a fair deal IMO. I personally just think putting a 4 WAR value on Syndergaard is a bit too optimistic at this point.

Fair value really should be somewhere between the 3.2 WAR per season and the 2.5 WAR per season numbers I've outlined above. I'd estimate he'll make 21.75 million through 2021...if using the high WAR number that would put his surplus value at approximately 48.45 million and the when using the low WAR number the surplus value would only be approximately 33.15 million. Impossible for me to believe that the Mets would deal him for that lower number, but if they would, a package like Turang + Brown + Feliciano would be enough. The higher number would require a package like Turang + Lutz + Brown + Feliciano + Supak.

For another perspective, the Trade Value website puts Syndergaard's value at 88.1 million, which was probably a fair enough value 12 months ago but seems ridiculously high now. 88.1 million surplus value + and estimated 21.75 million in salary puts his value over the next 2+ years at 109.85 million. 109.85 million / 9 million (assuming 1 WAR = 9 million) = 12.2 WAR. With 2.44 years of team control remaining, 12.2/2.44 = (strangely enough) exactly 5 WAR per season. Syndergaard was all that 5 WAR and more in 2016, but hasn't been back there in the last three years. Removing Hiura, I have the total prospect surplus value of all the remaining non-fringe Brewer prospects at only about 117 million. So if this is the price the Mets need for Syndergaard, then the Brewers are probably out right from the get-go. Would need to include a name like Yelich, Hader or Hiura just to get the ball rolling.

After looking through all the data, I'd say odds are overwhelming that Stearns asks, the Mets say that either Hader or Hiura would be an absolute requirement to getting a deal done, and that's the end of it.


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Online  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#14

Posted: July 10, 2019, 8:03 AM Post
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JosephC said:
I think the fair asking price on Syndergaard probably should have dropped significantly over the last few months. His best year occurred in 2016...generally I take the three year splits...and we are far enough into this season where I'd use a pro-rated 2019 WAR value and throw out 2016. Production in 2017 was minimal (injury) and he's been very good in terms of peripherals in 2019 but not very good in terms of run prevention.

Yearly bWAR/fWAR average:
2016 = 5.45
2017 = 0.95 (only 7 starts)
2018 = 4.10
2019 (pro-rated to full season) = 2.35
Four year average = 3.2
Three year average = 2.5

Mets would likely argue that the 2017 number is artificially low due to injury and the multi-year average numbers should be adjusted up...I'd guess they would still look for 4+ WAR per season compensation, although I think it's pretty unlikely they would get that, even for a hard-throwing type like Syndergaard. If they do, it would put his surplus value at around 66 million which would be extremely difficult for the Brewers to achieve. They would need to include so many minor leaguers not named Hiura that it's almost impossible that a deal could be reached. At this point, if Stearns really, really, really wanted Syndergaard, then it would really make more sense to just offer Hiura and then get the Mets to add in a reliever to make it a fair deal. If one believes Syndergaard is at least a 4 WAR player moving forward, then a Hiura for Syndergaard + Seth Lugo deal would be a fair deal IMO. I personally just think putting a 4 WAR value on Syndergaard is a bit too optimistic at this point.

Fair value really should be somewhere between the 3.2 WAR per season and the 2.5 WAR per season numbers I've outlined above. I'd estimate he'll make 21.75 million through 2021...if using the high WAR number that would put his surplus value at approximately 48.45 million and the when using the low WAR number the surplus value would only be approximately 33.15 million. Impossible for me to believe that the Mets would deal him for that lower number, but if they would, a package like Turang + Brown + Feliciano would be enough. The higher number would require a package like Turang + Lutz + Brown + Feliciano + Supak.

For another perspective, the Trade Value website puts Syndergaard's value at 88.1 million, which was probably a fair enough value 12 months ago but seems ridiculously high now. 88.1 million surplus value + and estimated 21.75 million in salary puts his value over the next 2+ years at 109.85 million. 109.85 million / 9 million (assuming 1 WAR = 9 million) = 12.2 WAR. With 2.44 years of team control remaining, 12.2/2.44 = (strangely enough) exactly 5 WAR per season. Syndergaard was all that 5 WAR and more in 2016, but hasn't been back there in the last three years. Removing Hiura, I have the total prospect surplus value of all the remaining non-fringe Brewer prospects at only about 117 million. So if this is the price the Mets need for Syndergaard, then the Brewers are probably out right from the get-go. Would need to include a name like Yelich, Hader or Hiura just to get the ball rolling.

After looking through all the data, I'd say odds are overwhelming that Stearns asks, the Mets say that either Hader or Hiura would be an absolute requirement to getting a deal done, and that's the end of it.


Agreed. There's no centerpiecing Arcia, Burnes, Peralta, Lutz, or Turang around Syndergaard. They'll want Hiura or Hader (knowing we obviously aren't giving them Yelich), we'll say no, and that will be the end of it.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#15

Posted: July 10, 2019, 8:16 AM Post
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Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the Brewers are among the teams showing interest in Mets starter Noah Syndergaard.

Milwaukee is also known to have interest in Syndergaard's rotation mate Zack Wheeler, who seems certain to be dealt given that he is an impending free agent. Morosi writes that a trade of Syndergaard this month "is possible -- if a heavy price is paid." The 26-year-old right-hander is under club control through 2021, and the Mets probably don't want to sell low on him in a down 2019 season. Syndergaard came into the year with a 2.93 ERA and 9.9 K/9 through his first 518 1/3 major league innings but has so far stumbled to a 4.68 ERA and 8.6 K/9 in 105 2/3 frames.


Source: MLB.com

Jul 10, 2019, 9:30 AM ET


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#16

Posted: July 10, 2019, 8:22 AM Post
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I am not shocked we are interest and/or want him...but I don't think we have the prospects to entertain such deals. Unless they decide to trade Hiura we probably can't be players for elite guys controllable over 2 more years. It just takes way too big of a package.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#17

Posted: July 10, 2019, 8:26 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
Agreed. There's no centerpiecing Arcia, Burnes, Peralta, Lutz, or Turang around Syndergaard. They'll want Hiura or Hader (knowing we obviously aren't giving them Yelich), we'll say no, and that will be the end of it.

It's just as obvious we're not giving up 4.5yrs of Hader as he's more valuable than 2.5yrs of Thor. Plus it wouldn't make any sense on our end to ever make that swap. If you're offering several of Arcia, Burnes, Peralta, Turang, Lutz, Ray, Brown then there's really no centerpiece. It's just a quality package across the board lacking a true headliner. Hiura is the only actual centerpiece we have that's realistic value wise but we're not giving up 6yrs of him for 2.5yrs of Thor. Mets won't trade him this deadline.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#18

Posted: July 10, 2019, 9:01 AM Post
Posts: 5239
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Jopal78! said:
I suppose Syndergaard is only available because the Mets area franchise in disarray.

If Jose Quintana with 3.5 years of team control cost the Cubs Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease and others.

The Brewers don’t have a comparable prospect to Jimenez and trading Syndergaard for lower level minor leaguers signals the Mets are going to rebuild; thus they’d likely demand Turang, Lutz, Devin Williams, and a pitcher Bettinger, Ashby etc.


Jimenez was in A ball at the time of the trade. He was highly regarded, but not a top 5 prospect in baseball at the time. Cease had a good year coming back from injury but again...just was coming back from TJ and had serious command issues. The rest of the return was meh. I like both prospects and as a Brewer fan, loved the trade...but those prospects look better now than they did when traded for.

That said, I do generally agree that we don't have a prospects of the caliber Jimenez was even at the time of trade. Turang is close, maybe the speed/defense is enough to cancel out Jimenez tremendous power...hard to say. We do have pitchers of roughly similar value as Cease, but nobody with his combination of draft pedigree and upside.

My guess for Syndergaard, they want one of our two young pitchers and a couple more good prospects. Something like Peralta + Lutz + stuff. Maybe we get lucky and they value Ray highly instead of Lutz?


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#19

Posted: July 10, 2019, 9:07 AM Post
Posts: 5239
Location: New Berlin, WI
Wahoo Maniac said:
adambr2 said:
Agreed. There's no centerpiecing Arcia, Burnes, Peralta, Lutz, or Turang around Syndergaard. They'll want Hiura or Hader (knowing we obviously aren't giving them Yelich), we'll say no, and that will be the end of it.

It's just as obvious we're not giving up 4.5yrs of Hader as he's more valuable than 2.5yrs of Thor. Plus it wouldn't make any sense on our end to ever make that swap. If you're offering several of Arcia, Burnes, Peralta, Turang, Lutz, Ray, Brown then there's really no centerpiece. It's just a quality package across the board lacking a true headliner. Hiura is the only actual centerpiece we have that's realistic value wise but we're not giving up 6yrs of him for 2.5yrs of Thor. Mets won't trade him this deadline.


I feel like the only team that has a chance to put together a package for Thor is the Dodgers, or maybe the Astros. Both have the prospects, and i feel like both probably wouldn't have a huge issue giving up high end prospects simply because of how good they are at player development. Trade 2 top prospects, they'll develop 5 more next year. What do they care...

If the Dodgers float Lux and one of their two catchers...that will definitely be enough to get a conversation going. And both players are at positions that they are very deep and don't really NEED to plug the roster immediately. They can also surely add a good arm to the package and give the Mets a nice 3 for 1 deal.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#20

Posted: July 10, 2019, 9:25 AM Post
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"Talking" and "Have interest in" are two completely different things. Also, who knows what Brodie wants. Based on his previous moves I can't see him going for a total rebuild trade of far off minor leaguers. He's probably looking for MLB ready guys. Arcia, Burnes, Peralta are certainly guys he'd be looking at. Huira and Hader too but they're not going anywhere, or shouldn't be.


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