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Mets and Brewers talking Thor?

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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#41

Posted: July 10, 2019, 12:31 PM Post
Posts: 4577
Location: New Berlin, WI
turborickey said:
So, if we deal Arcia, like so many here seem to want to do, who is our SS for the remainder of this season? Are you really willing to count on Dubon or Saladino to carry that load? We know what we have in Saladino, which isn't much, and Dubon is a total mystery at this level.

That is a bit scary to me.

I am soooo against trading Turang and Lutz, I truly believe they are our future, along with Hiura.


I tend to agree with thie Dubon/Saladino part. Especially with Saladino being bad so far. I think it would be wise to gauge the market and see what SS would be available for trade before we consider dealing Arcia. If the Dbacks sell, they might have a couple decent options.


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Online  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#42

Posted: July 10, 2019, 12:34 PM Post
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Posts: 12112
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Braun could always return to SS. Probably would help him stack up some WAR for the remainder of the season.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#43

Posted: July 10, 2019, 12:42 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Teams have their OWN lists, top 100 lists are for the fans to have a General idea who SOME of the better prospects are. Clubs prospect lists are done in real time, example would be, Grisham, who’s currently not highly rated on prospect lists, would be on teams lists, because they have scouts that have seen him play recently, teams know he’s broken out.


This is a good point. The break-out guys are typically the ones who are traded at this time of year. Guys who are injured or are underperforming are sometimes added as PBNL types, but are rarely headliners.

Of course the Top 100 lists are for the fans but they're not comprised based on opinions of whoever the writer is. It's based on market intel gathered from scouts/teams and what they're hearing out there. They're updated every 6 months I think so of course they're not fluid like internal rankings by each org. That doesn't negate the point that Ray being on it heading into the season means he actually is valued out there regardless of teams internal boards having him ranked 2nd or lower for our org. There's no way teams currently have Grisham ranked 30th for our system.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#44

Posted: July 10, 2019, 12:52 PM Post
Posts: 502
Wahoo Maniac said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Teams have their OWN lists, top 100 lists are for the fans to have a General idea who SOME of the better prospects are. Clubs prospect lists are done in real time, example would be, Grisham, who’s currently not highly rated on prospect lists, would be on teams lists, because they have scouts that have seen him play recently, teams know he’s broken out.


This is a good point. The break-out guys are typically the ones who are traded at this time of year. Guys who are injured or are underperforming are sometimes added as PBNL types, but are rarely headliners.

Of course the Top 100 lists are for the fans but they're not comprised based on opinions of whoever the writer is. It's based on market intel gathered from scouts/teams and what they're hearing out there. They're updated every 6 months I think so of course they're not fluid like internal rankings by each org. That doesn't negate the point that Ray being on it heading into the season means he actually is valued out there regardless of teams internal boards having him ranked 2nd or lower for our org. There's no way teams currently have Grisham ranked 30th for our system.


Yep - great point. I severely doubt that teams rank Joe Gray and Lucas Erceg higher than Trent Grisham and Drew Rasmussen right now. In fact, I've got to believe that those two guys alone are probably highly thought of right now among MLB scouts. And, Devin Williams is another example of a guy that I'm sure teams would be very interested in, but he's currently not even in the Top 30 prospect list anymore.


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Online  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#45

Posted: July 10, 2019, 12:58 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Might come down to a quantity vs. quality type thing or vice versa depending on what the Mets are looking at doing going forward. If they want a total tear down, they might be looking at multiple lower level guys over valuing 1-2 guys that are doing well at the AAA level.


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Online  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#46

Posted: July 10, 2019, 1:16 PM Post
Posts: 1988
Wahoo Maniac said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Teams have their OWN lists, top 100 lists are for the fans to have a General idea who SOME of the better prospects are. Clubs prospect lists are done in real time, example would be, Grisham, who’s currently not highly rated on prospect lists, would be on teams lists, because they have scouts that have seen him play recently, teams know he’s broken out.


This is a good point. The break-out guys are typically the ones who are traded at this time of year. Guys who are injured or are underperforming are sometimes added as PBNL types, but are rarely headliners.

Of course the Top 100 lists are for the fans but they're not comprised based on opinions of whoever the writer is. It's based on market intel gathered from scouts/teams and what they're hearing out there. They're updated every 6 months I think so of course they're not fluid like internal rankings by each org. That doesn't negate the point that Ray being on it heading into the season means he actually is valued out there regardless of teams internal boards having him ranked 2nd or lower for our org. There's no way teams currently have Grisham ranked 30th for our system.


Right, but because their not fluid, and lag way, way longer than they should imo, it makes them inaccurate for that reason alone.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#47

Posted: July 10, 2019, 1:43 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
turborickey said:
So, if we deal Arcia, like so many here seem to want to do, who is our SS for the remainder of this season? Are you really willing to count on Dubon or Saladino to carry that load? We know what we have in Saladino, which isn't much, and Dubon is a total mystery at this level.

That is a bit scary to me.

I am soooo against trading Turang and Lutz, I truly believe they are our future, along with Hiura.

Yes, I'm more than willing to let Dubon start the rest of the season. He's about to turn 25 and he's mature. The team clearly believes in his ability since he was replacing Arcia at SS last May before the injury. They wanted him back in AAA this year to regain his footing after the injury. He's been grading out at 55 hit, 60 run, 55 arm, 55 field since 2016 when he was in A+. SINCE 2016. He's a pure hitter. And he's improved his power annually while maturing physically over that span. Never once has any scouting report ever said he might have to move off SS. Everything has always been quick hands, quick feet, solid arm, steady defender. In case you're wondering those grades are the exact same as Turang (also now in A+), who everyone is drooling over.

Right now, Arcia is a dime a dozen performer who's inconsistent. I wish that wasn't the case because he's more talented than that but it's reality. I guess I find two things strange: people thinking it's super difficult to replace average defense and below average offense at the SS position and people overlooking Dubon while he grades out like a borderline Top 100 over the past several years with the performance to match it.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#48

Posted: July 10, 2019, 2:27 PM Post
Posts: 4577
Location: New Berlin, WI
Wahoo Maniac said:
turborickey said:
So, if we deal Arcia, like so many here seem to want to do, who is our SS for the remainder of this season? Are you really willing to count on Dubon or Saladino to carry that load? We know what we have in Saladino, which isn't much, and Dubon is a total mystery at this level.

That is a bit scary to me.

I am soooo against trading Turang and Lutz, I truly believe they are our future, along with Hiura.


Right now, Arcia is a dime a dozen performer who's inconsistent. I wish that wasn't the case because he's more talented than that but it's reality. I guess I find two things strange: people thinking it's super difficult to replace average defense and below average offense at the SS position and people overlooking Dubon while he grades out like a borderline Top 100 over the past several years with the performance to match it.


While I generally agree with you that Arcia is not THAT valuable and very replaceable, and that Dubon is underrated...I think you don't give Arcia's defense enough credit. He needs to be a bit more consistent, but he's a heck of a defender. Him being a strong defender helps cover for a mediocre 2b and limited range at 3b. Again, I still agree with you that I think Arcia is fairly replaceable. If we traded Arcia, we definitely should be looking at someone better than Saladino at the utility spot that can play SS. Frankly, we should be looking to improve that spot regardless...but I'd add urgency if we trade Arcia in case Dubon struggles out of the gate.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#49

Posted: July 10, 2019, 5:01 PM Post
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Location: California
Orlando Arcia should not be the reason we do not acquire Thor. Assuming the rest of the deal is reasonable (meaning it's not Hiura, Burnes, Ray & Arcia), if Arcia is the key piece to completing a deal, you make it.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#50

Posted: July 10, 2019, 9:46 PM Post
Posts: 1827
Would Arcia, Burnes, and Houser get it done?


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#51

Posted: July 10, 2019, 9:48 PM Post
Posts: 1827
rickh150 said:
Would Arcia, Burnes, and Houser get it done?


Long term, we do have Wahl and Knebel coming back next year.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#52

Posted: July 10, 2019, 10:19 PM Post
Posts: 502
rickh150 said:
Would Arcia, Burnes, and Houser get it done?


Man, I'd be pissed if I were a Mets fan and this is all that my GM got back in a trade for Thor. Who's the headliner in this deal going back to NYM? A light hitting SS that's already been up in the big leagues for 2+ years, or a SP in Burnes who's shown no signs of any consistency yet at the MLB level?


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Online  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#53

Posted: July 10, 2019, 10:22 PM Post
Posts: 17380
Not a chance.


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Online  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#54

Posted: July 11, 2019, 6:05 AM Post
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It seems the closest the Brewers ever came under Stearns’ leadership to a acquiring a well regarded starting pitcher near the trade deadline was Jose Quintana back in 2017. At the time it seemed like one of the enticing aspects were his multiple years of control.

I think the biggest challenges for the Brewers trying to acquire a mid-to-top rotation starting pitcher this deadline are as follows:

1) Nearly every contending team is in need of another quality starting pitcher. The competition to add starting pitching on the trade market is going to be very high this year. It also doesn’t help that there are also currently more teams still in the playoff hunt than usual.

2) The Brewers have a giant gap between Hiura and their next tier of prospects. I don’t think they’ll be willing to part with Hiura for a starting pitcher (and they shouldn’t), but the next group of prospects aren’t likely valuable enough to headline a trade for an impact starter. I also don’t think many teams trading a quality arm are going to accept a quantity over quality type deal. Even when the Brewers traded a half season of Zack Greinke away they got back a top 50 prospect in return. There are several teams with multiple top prospects that are better positioned to outbid any package the Brewers can put together (sans Hiura).


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Online  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#55

Posted: July 11, 2019, 7:02 AM Post
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Right on! Milwaukee isn’t going to trade for a good controllable starting pitcher and retain Hiura.

As for the rental players, executives know the value of the rental players and teams like the Giants will pick which prospect package they like best for Will Smith, Bumgarner etc


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#56

Posted: July 11, 2019, 7:40 AM Post
Posts: 502
Jopal78! said:
Right on! Milwaukee isn’t going to trade for a good controllable starting pitcher and retain Hiura.

As for the rental players, executives know the value of the rental players and teams like the Giants will pick which prospect package they like best for Will Smith, Bumgarner etc


Yeah, there's just no way that Stearns is going to give up too much for a rental player. Let's look at the guys we've traded for rental players the past two years:

Medeiros for Soria
Lopez and Phillips for Moose
Carmona, Ortiz and Villar for Schoop
Cordell for Swarzak
Taylor Scott for Jeffress

Medeiros, Ortiz, Lopez and Phillips were all once big prospects in our system, but I think we can all agree that at the time of each of these trades - all four had seen their prospect status fall significantly. I'd actually make the argument that Carmona and Cordell were the two guys that I hated to see us trade the most out of this group.

Anyway - I just would find it hard to believe that Stearns is going to give up anyone of significance for a rental player. And because of that, I just don't see us landing any of the big name SP rentals - Wheeler, MadBum, etc. I think he'll continue to have discussions like he always does, but we'll probably end up settling on a couple of relief arms that hopefully shouldn't cost us as much in prospect capital.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#57

Posted: July 11, 2019, 8:32 AM Post
Posts: 4268
1) Nearly every contending team is in need of another quality starting pitcher. The competition to add starting pitching on the trade market is going to be very high this year. It also doesn’t help that there are also currently more teams still in the playoff hunt than usual.

I actually think the pile of NL teams within earshot of contending may help to suppress the trade market this year - not nearly as many teams in true sell mode so there aren't going to be a ton of desired players on the market, and most teams with a shot may take a tepid approach to this year's trade deadline not wanting to sell off the farm chasing fool's gold. Case in point would be what the Pirates did around this time last year trading for Archer. I'm guessing alot of NL teams are going to hope improvement comes internally - either from prospect callups of their own or just having key players start performing better within their own organizations. There's going to be a flurry of trades the last couple days of July, but I'm guessing the market is pretty quiet across the NL until the bitter end. On the AL side, contending teams are much easier to see, which likely means they will be more aggressive improving their rosters via trade. Look for teams like the Twins and Yankees to short up bullpen holes soon - and the Indians, Rays, and A's are going to be players too. The Rangers are just close enough to contention that they could return to making more silly deadline deals chasing pitching, too. I don't think the Astros have much of a team weakness, but they may look to make a splash move and surprise people to try and separate themselves, while the Red Sox would probably like to upgrade but don't have much on the farm to do so.

In the NL, the Braves may go after another starter or pen option, but they've already brought in Keuchel. The Nats are rolling while the Phillies have basically mirrored the Brewers in terms of a disappointing June - I don't see either of those teams getting too nuts via trade unless they are adding relievers, as their answers are more internal. These NL east teams are at a deadline disadvantage since they are in the same division as the Mets and Marlins - two obvious sellers that may gum up potential trades with the teams not wanting to bolster their chances in 2019 nor ship quality prospects to division rivals in any trades. The NL Central is just a blob of teams that are all going to have a tough time getting hot enough to separate themselves in the standings, so I think they'll all have a tough time being aggressive via trade. The NL West is the Dodgers and everyone else - and the Dodgers are so loaded they may have a tough time actually identifying roster upgrades via trade. However, if they want to go for broke this year they have the farm system to make a few impact moves in effort to finally win it all.

Specific to the Brewers, I'd like to see them go after Wheeler - simply to get another reliable starting pitcher for the stretch run that's capable of a dominating couple months. Burnes and Peralta appear to have settled in a bit to their bullpen roles, but it'd also be nice to find one more stud reliever for the back end. I don't think they should meddle with offensive upgrades - they need their own guys to perform. That all being said, if they fall apart over the next couple weeks I think the Brewers absolutely need to become aggressive sellers this deadline - guys like Grandal and Moose, even Albers, Davies, Anderson, Thames, etc. need to be made available for prospects.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#58

Posted: July 11, 2019, 11:49 AM Post
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I think a Thor type (controllable) makes the most sense from Stearns mentality. If the Brewers truly are going to make a trade for a SP it will either be an all in for a Thor-type or it will be a hoping to catch lightning in a bottle Gio-type. The Bumgarner and Wheeler type rentals don't fit Stearns MO in terms of sacrificing good prospects. If you can acquire them at a heavily discounted rate, which is unlikely given the supposed interest surrounding them, I can see it. Like Moustakas last year.

My expectation though is you will either see that a Yelich-type deal for a controllable SP or you will see nibbling around the fringes of the roster.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#59

Posted: July 11, 2019, 1:33 PM Post
Posts: 1260
People talk about the brewers prospects and the drop off after Hiura. Sure, it's big, but guys like Burnes and Peralta to me are tradeable. I don't know if people just don't want to part with them or what?? I easily give up both of them in a Syndergaard deal for example.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#60

Posted: July 11, 2019, 2:27 PM Post
Posts: 490
Arcia/Lutz/Peralta/Turang/$10 mil for Syndergaard/Lagares


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