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Mets and Brewers talking Thor?

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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#61

Posted: July 11, 2019, 3:42 PM Post
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mlloyd10 said:
Arcia/Lutz/Peralta/Turang/$10 mil for Syndergaard/Lagares


Lutz AND Turang?

I'm out...

[sad]


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#62

Posted: July 11, 2019, 3:51 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Brewcrewin07 said:
People talk about the brewers prospects and the drop off after Hiura. Sure, it's big, but guys like Burnes and Peralta to me are tradeable. I don't know if people just don't want to part with them or what?? I easily give up both of them in a Syndergaard deal for example.

I wouldn't give up both as that's a ton of control lost for 2.5yrs of Thor who has injury concerns to begin with. I have no issues parting with Peralta. I just think Burnes is a more polished pitcher and worst case is a big arm in the pen (although I think he sticks in the rotation and figures it out next year). I'd part with Burnes in a package if there was a pitcher coming back with 3.5yrs control. No way I part with both in the same package


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#63

Posted: July 11, 2019, 4:03 PM Post
Posts: 19234
turborickey said:
mlloyd10 said:
Arcia/Lutz/Peralta/Turang/$10 mil for Syndergaard/Lagares


Lutz AND Turang?

I'm out...

[sad]


Mets would be out long before that anyway. I just don't see a real centerpiece here. I guess it's Turang, but there will be teams offering much better centerpieces.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#64

Posted: July 11, 2019, 4:20 PM Post
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If it's Hiura for Syndergaard straight up...does anyone do that?

Given the Brewers historic lack of development in terms of pitching, I am all in favor of trading elite hitting for elite pitching. The years of control are what preclude me from making this move. I keep trying to find a way for the Brewers to acquire Syndergaard without parting with Hiura and I just don't see it. As adam mentions, the Mets will need a sexy headliner and no one in the Brewers system fits the bill other than Hiura.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#65

Posted: July 11, 2019, 4:24 PM Post
Posts: 546
Warning Track Power said:
If it's Hiura for Syndergaard straight up...does anyone do that?

Given the Brewers historic lack of development in terms of pitching, I am all in favor of trading elite hitting for elite pitching. The years of control are what preclude me from making this move. I keep trying to find a way for the Brewers to acquire Syndergaard without parting with Hiura and I just don't see it. As adam mentions, the Mets will need a sexy headliner and no one in the Brewers system fits the bill other than Hiura.


It's tough as I really like the idea of adding an starter like him but I wouldn't. Too many years of Hiura for 2.5 of Thor, that's the difference for me.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#66

Posted: July 11, 2019, 4:43 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Warning Track Power said:
If it's Hiura for Syndergaard straight up...does anyone do that?

No. And the Mets are hurting in a lot of areas so I don't think they necessarily will require one elite prospect, one very good+ propsect + fillers if they can acquire a package of several young controllable MLB players/upper level good prospects. I can see them going either way as the return is going to be good regardless.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#67

Posted: July 11, 2019, 7:56 PM Post
Posts: 1793
Location: Madison, WI
Warning Track Power said:
If it's Hiura for Syndergaard straight up...does anyone do that?

Given the Brewers historic lack of development in terms of pitching, I am all in favor of trading elite hitting for elite pitching. The years of control are what preclude me from making this move. I keep trying to find a way for the Brewers to acquire Syndergaard without parting with Hiura and I just don't see it. As adam mentions, the Mets will need a sexy headliner and no one in the Brewers system fits the bill other than Hiura.


I wouldn't because (A) Hiura has significantly higher surplus value by my calculations and (B) I'd be torn about paying market value for Syndergaard because he's a real hard-thrower that only started 7 games in 2017 and 25 games in 2018. I know there are a lot of people out there that are just willing to accept injuries as part of the package for high-upside players, but I'm not one. Even the best guys don't add a darn thing if they are on the bench with an injury.

But after having given it some thought, even though I wouldn't be a fan of the move, if Stearns did something like:

Brewers get:
RHP-Noah Syndergaard
RHP-Seth Lugo
3B-Todd Frazier

Mets get:
2B-Keston Hiura
RHP-Trey Supak
C-Jacob Nottingham

I really couldn't argue about that too much. I haven't cranked through the math but I'd guess that would be pretty fair, numbers-wise. Brewers lose 6+ years of Hiura but would be trading for 2+ years of Syndergaard and 3+ years of Lugo. Syndergaard would represent a huge upgrade for the rotation and Lugo would be considered the 2nd best reliever on the team. Frazier plays third, Moustakas to second, and while Frazier's bat would be a pitiful long-term comparison to Hiura...currently this season Frazier is slashing .256/.340/.443/.783 against Hiura's .257/.318/.475/.793...so Frazier's bat might not even be that big of a downgrade when limiting the outlook to 2019.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#68

Posted: July 11, 2019, 8:11 PM Post
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I don't see the mets making this move even with their FO


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#69

Posted: July 12, 2019, 7:38 AM Post
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I believe the Mets probably will value players closer to the majors than other prospects. Hiura, Burnes and Peralta would be on the top of their list. I believe Burnes and Peralta have a higher value to the Mets than some are giving them.

I don't believe the Mets are going to go into the blow it all up rebuild and will be looking for players that are closer to the majors or are already in the majors.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#70

Posted: July 12, 2019, 8:10 AM Post
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nate82 said:
I believe the Mets probably will value players closer to the majors than other prospects. Hiura, Burnes and Peralta would be on the top of their list. I believe Burnes and Peralta have a higher value to the Mets than some are giving them.

I don't believe the Mets are going to go into the blow it all up rebuild and will be looking for players that are closer to the majors or are already in the majors.


If the Mets truly value close-to ML assets over lower level guys, I wonder if pitchers such as Houser, Supak or even Knebel, and hitters like Nottingham, Dubon and Grisham are going to hold more appeal? I'd suggest Ray, Taylor and Stokes, but all three of them are scuffling big time, so I doubt they are being looked at heavily as major trade pieces.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#71

Posted: July 12, 2019, 8:42 AM Post
Posts: 546
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
nate82 said:
I believe the Mets probably will value players closer to the majors than other prospects. Hiura, Burnes and Peralta would be on the top of their list. I believe Burnes and Peralta have a higher value to the Mets than some are giving them.

I don't believe the Mets are going to go into the blow it all up rebuild and will be looking for players that are closer to the majors or are already in the majors.


If the Mets truly value close-to ML assets over lower level guys, I wonder if pitchers such as Houser, Supak or even Knebel, and hitters like Nottingham, Dubon and Grisham are going to hold more appeal? I'd suggest Ray, Taylor and Stokes, but all three of them are scuffling big time, so I doubt they are being looked at heavily as major trade pieces.


Ray has been out for so long it's hard to say how teams view him at this point. We do have a few buy low candidates for the Mets if they want MLB pieces. Going into the season most of us thought Burnes would be the top guy of the 3 young pitchers but now who trades Woodruff straight up for Syndergaard? Burnes could be just like him next season with 5 years of control left. Maybe the Mets like Shaw as a bounce back candidate as well if they need a LH power bat. It's not very likely to happen but he is one of the only guys I think the Brewers should make a big deal for right now and he is sort of a buy low guy right now too.

edit: Just realized Ray back in Biloxi


Last edited by OldHeidelberg on July 12, 2019, 8:45 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#72

Posted: July 12, 2019, 8:43 AM Post
Posts: 1793
Location: Madison, WI
Would the Mets love to have Hiura's bat? Sure, any one of 30 MLB teams would. But the problem with Hiura to the Mets is what do they do with Robinson Cano? If the Mets believe JD Davis is the real deal, then where does Hiura fit in with Davis, Cano, Alonso...and many people already believe Rosario should be moved off SS.

Hiura's the only chance I see of these two teams lining up on a Syndergaard trade, but the more one looks at it, the more it just doesn't seem to match up.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#73

Posted: July 12, 2019, 8:54 AM Post
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Switch away from Hiura and start with Grisham + Burnes - I'd think the Brewers would need to add another notable prospect in the lower minors and some filler, but this is the type of package that might interest the Mets if they are serious about dealing Thor and other teams aren't offering up crazy prospect packages the Brewers just can't match. Burnes has obviously had a disappointing season, but the arm and stuff are still there along with quite a bit of team-friendly control. Grisham has had a great 2019, but dealing him this deadline might wind up being the definition of selling high. 2.5 years of Thor is very intriguing for this Brewers team.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#74

Posted: July 12, 2019, 9:07 AM Post
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One reason the Brewers have been able to swing some big trades over the last few years is that they are not afraid to deal off prospects who are close to MLB ready, which other contenders simply haven't been willing to do. The Brewers may not have a ton of nationally-ranked high-end prospects, but what they do have is a lot of MLB-ready talent that could immediately step into roles for rebuilding teams. Other contenders don't like to deal off those types for fear that it will hurt their MLB depth. Thankfully the Brewers are constructed in a way where there is deep talent at nearly every position.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#75

Posted: July 12, 2019, 9:26 AM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
Switch away from Hiura and start with Grisham + Burnes - I'd think the Brewers would need to add another notable prospect in the lower minors and some filler, but this is the type of package that might interest the Mets if they are serious about dealing Thor and other teams aren't offering up crazy prospect packages the Brewers just can't match. Burnes has obviously had a disappointing season, but the arm and stuff are still there along with quite a bit of team-friendly control. Grisham has had a great 2019, but dealing him this deadline might wind up being the definition of selling high. 2.5 years of Thor is very intriguing for this Brewers team.


As much as I would love to trade Grisham this summer as a "headliner" in a deal, are we certain that he's actually bumped back up his trade value that much in just a few months? I mean, we are talking about a kid that was on the verge of losing all "prospect status" that he had left remaining this year if he didn't start to put things together this season. Credit to him for stepping up and doing that so far this year, but I still have to wonder if other teams would shy away from him in a trade - not knowing completely yet what type of player they might be getting?

I could definitely see guys like Burnes, Freddy and Arcia having much more value to teams that are looking for those MLB ready guys that are still young enough to blossom in the coming years.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#76

Posted: July 12, 2019, 9:38 AM Post
Posts: 2043
Which prospects have to be added to the 40 man next year? The amount of guys being left OFF or removed from it and subject to the Rule 5 draft might be a main issue. Just like last year in August, some extra prospects needed to be moved anyway. We couldn't keep them all. Will there be as noticeable crunch as last year?


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#77

Posted: July 12, 2019, 9:50 AM Post
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rickh150 said:
Which prospects have to be added to the 40 man next year? The amount of guys being left OFF or removed from it and subject to the Rule 5 draft might be a main issue. Just like last year in August, some extra prospects needed to be moved anyway. We couldn't keep them all. Will there be as noticeable crunch as last year?


Here are the upper end prospects that the Brewers will be looking at having to put on the 40-man:

AAA:
1. Zach Brown
2. Lucas Erceg
3. Trent Grisham
4. Thomas Jankins
5. Miguel Sanchez

AA:
1. Corey Ray
2. Daniel Brown
3. Jake Gatewood
4. Nate Griep
5. Cody Ponce
6. Joantgel Segovia
7. Weston Wilson

So yeah, depending on how many of these guys figure into the future, they are looking at another roster crunch.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#78

Posted: July 12, 2019, 9:52 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
rickh150 said:
Which prospects have to be added to the 40 man next year? The amount of guys being left OFF or removed from it and subject to the Rule 5 draft might be a main issue. Just like last year in August, some extra prospects needed to be moved anyway. We couldn't keep them all. Will there be as noticeable crunch as last year?

Brown, Ray, Erceg, M. Sanchez, Webb to me are the only that deserve consideration. I think Ray and Brown are the only guys that get protected. I see Erceg as part of a package; same goes for Ponce. Maybe they include Bickford as a flyer for someone too.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#79

Posted: July 12, 2019, 10:08 AM Post
Posts: 1844
Again, give them Peralta, Burnes, Arcia and another smaller piece and I think the trade gets done.


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Offline  Re: Mets and Brewers talking Thor?
#80

Posted: July 12, 2019, 10:38 AM Post
Posts: 587
Brewcrewin07 said:
Again, give them Peralta, Burnes, Arcia and another smaller piece and I think the trade gets done.


Man, that's a ton of young MLB talent that we are giving up on. I just can't see Stearns shipping away those three guys in one deal - for a guy in Thor who's a major injury risk. I think Peralta/Burnes would have to be an either/or situation, but not both. And if we are giving up on Arcia - we better be damn certain that Dubon is ready to contribute from day 1.

Again - I just can't see a scenario where we are going to give up three guys currently on our MLB roster - especially three young guys who all might have their best years in front of them.


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