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Baseball trade values website

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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#21

Posted: July 25, 2019, 9:22 PM Post
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johnbitzer said:
One more thought on this: Would any of you trade Hiura for Matt Olson?


I like Olson, but no way.


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Online  Re: Baseball trade values website
#22

Posted: July 25, 2019, 9:28 PM Post
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johnbitzer said:
One more thought on this: Would any of you trade Hiura for Matt Olson?


Nope

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#23

Posted: July 25, 2019, 9:29 PM Post
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johnbitzer said:
One more thought on this: Would any of you trade Hiura for Matt Olson?


Only if they threw in Khrush!!


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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#24

Posted: July 26, 2019, 3:13 AM Post
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johnbitzer said:
One more thought on this: Would any of you trade Hiura for Matt Olson?


No. While we don't know exactly how good of a hitter Hiura will be in the majors, I think he'll be around or over Olson's 128 wRC+. And because he plays 2B he doesn't even need to eclipse it to be more valuable. Olson is a very good defensive 1B, but I don't put much weight onto that. And in addition to all that, Hiura is a 22 year old with 6 full years of team control after this season, Olson is 25 with 4 years of team control.

Which is not to dunk on Olson, he's a player I would love to see on the Brewers. But not straight up for Hiura.


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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#25

Posted: July 26, 2019, 8:17 AM Post
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Matt Olson is a slightly better version of Travis Shaw


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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#26

Posted: July 26, 2019, 10:14 AM Post
Posts: 12
Okay, that's what I thought. Heck, I'm an A's fan, and I love Matt Olson, but even I would trade him for Hiura in a nanosecond.

My point is to illustrate one key difference between the BTV approach and the Fangraphs approach. The Fangraphs series ranked Olson ahead of Hiura, which in theory means that the Brewers would make that trade because they'd be getting more value (and I would also note that each player would be a fit in terms of positional upgrade in that scenario). But I don't think they would in reality. Our approach is based on what front offices do -- what they've done in the past and therefore would they're most likely to do in the future (as opposed to the FG approach, which is based on what they say).

That's not meant to one-up them; I do respect their series. But I don't think it's super-accurate, because a) they don't test it with real-life examples like this; b) they also don't square it up with their own research on prospect valuations (which, ironically, is what ours is based on -- and which puts Hiura higher).


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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#27

Posted: July 26, 2019, 11:40 AM Post
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johnbitzer said:
One more thought on this: Would any of you trade Hiura for Matt Olson?


Is that a serious question? Not if they had a gun to my head.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#28

Posted: July 26, 2019, 11:57 AM Post
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recte44 said:
johnbitzer said:
One more thought on this: Would any of you trade Hiura for Matt Olson?


Is that a serious question? Not if they had a gun to my head.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The reason for the question being posed was pointed out in the post that preceded yours.

I can remember Dave Cameron discussing how challenging and time consuming the trade value series was for him to put together each year. I really like Kiley's content at FanGraphs, but I don't get the sense he is nearly as invested in this particular annual exercise. Also, obviously relying on feedback from front offices likely leads to a lot of anecdotal influence. He had Brandon Woodruff ranked in the top 50, ahead of both Josh Hader and Keston Hiura whom I would consider significantly more valuable as trade commodities.


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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#29

Posted: July 26, 2019, 12:19 PM Post
Posts: 12
I agree -- we have both Hader and Hiura higher than Woodruff.

And again, testing this anecdotally: as an A's fan, I would give up the sun and moon for either Hader or Hiura. I would not for Woodruff. That's not to disparage Woodruff -- he's a fine pitcher, and looks like he'll settle into a nice career -- but he's not as much of a needle-mover as those two.


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Online  Re: Baseball trade values website
#30

Posted: July 26, 2019, 1:03 PM Post
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I can't separate those 3. In a vacuum, Woodruff is probably a step or 2 below Hiura and Hader, but the Brewers are so thin at SP and have such trouble developing them that it elevates his value for the Brewer organization.


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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#31

Posted: July 31, 2019, 5:30 AM Post
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The analysis from the Reds-Indians-Padres blockbuster trade via the Baseball Trade Values Twitter account...

The values from tonight's blockbuster:

#Indians get: Franmil Reyes ($32.4M), Logan Allen ($14.7M), Yasiel Puig ($6.5m), Scott Moss ($0.4M), Victor Nova (NR) TOTAL - $54.0M

#Padres get: Taylor Trammell ($50.2M)

#Reds get: Trevor Bauer ($34.4M)

The #Padres values are balanced. This means that we're either severely undervaluing Trevor Bauer, or the #Reds overpaid.

We believe it's the latter. Over the past year, we've seen only one overpay in a trade for a starting pitcher - Cincinnati's offseason trade for Sonny Gray.

The #Reds have mentioned the difficulties of luring free agent pitchers to Cincinnati, and their willingness to overpay in a trade as a result.

This is a higher-variance trade than we're used to seeing, but we've seen other high-variance trades from the Reds in the past.


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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#32

Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:44 AM Post
Posts: 353
Eye Black said:
The analysis from the Reds-Indians-Padres blockbuster trade via the Baseball Trade Values Twitter account...

The values from tonight's blockbuster:

#Indians get: Franmil Reyes ($32.4M), Logan Allen ($14.7M), Yasiel Puig ($6.5m), Scott Moss ($0.4M), Victor Nova (NR) TOTAL - $54.0M

#Padres get: Taylor Trammell ($50.2M)

#Reds get: Trevor Bauer ($34.4M)

The #Padres values are balanced. This means that we're either severely undervaluing Trevor Bauer, or the #Reds overpaid.

We believe it's the latter. Over the past year, we've seen only one overpay in a trade for a starting pitcher - Cincinnati's offseason trade for Sonny Gray.

The #Reds have mentioned the difficulties of luring free agent pitchers to Cincinnati, and their willingness to overpay in a trade as a result.

This is a higher-variance trade than we're used to seeing, but we've seen other high-variance trades from the Reds in the past.


Your value ratings show just how worthless much of that type of stuff is. Trammell is hitting a whopping .236 in AA. Regressed badly. To say his "value" is 1.33 times that of a proven MLB starter like Bauer is ludicrous. To say Reyes is 5 TIMES more valuable than Puig is insane. Reyes is a DH, period. No other value. Puig is a proven OF and MLB hitter.


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Online  Re: Baseball trade values website
#33

Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:50 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Eye Black said:
The analysis from the Reds-Indians-Padres blockbuster trade via the Baseball Trade Values Twitter account...

The values from tonight's blockbuster:

#Indians get: Franmil Reyes ($32.4M), Logan Allen ($14.7M), Yasiel Puig ($6.5m), Scott Moss ($0.4M), Victor Nova (NR) TOTAL - $54.0M

#Padres get: Taylor Trammell ($50.2M)

#Reds get: Trevor Bauer ($34.4M)

The #Padres values are balanced. This means that we're either severely undervaluing Trevor Bauer, or the #Reds overpaid.

We believe it's the latter. Over the past year, we've seen only one overpay in a trade for a starting pitcher - Cincinnati's offseason trade for Sonny Gray.

The #Reds have mentioned the difficulties of luring free agent pitchers to Cincinnati, and their willingness to overpay in a trade as a result.

This is a higher-variance trade than we're used to seeing, but we've seen other high-variance trades from the Reds in the past.


Your value ratings show just how worthless much of that type of stuff is. Trammell is hitting a whopping .236 in AA. Regressed badly. To say his "value" is 1.33 times that of a proven MLB starter like Bauer is ludicrous. To say Reyes is 5 TIMES more valuable than Puig is insane. Reyes is a DH, period. No other value. Puig is a proven OF and MLB hitter.


You are looking at the value system too simplistically. Trammell is a 21-year-old blue-chip prospect in AA with a ton of future control. Bauer has about 1 1/3 seasons of control left. Reyes also has a ton of control remaining, while Puig is a free agent after this year. This value system takes future control into account.


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Offline  Re: Baseball trade values website
#34

Posted: July 31, 2019, 7:11 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Your value ratings show just how worthless much of that type of stuff is. Trammell is hitting a whopping .236 in AA. Regressed badly. To say his "value" is 1.33 times that of a proven MLB starter like Bauer is ludicrous. To say Reyes is 5 TIMES more valuable than Puig is insane. Reyes is a DH, period. No other value. Puig is a proven OF and MLB hitter.

You’ve made statements over the past week that lead me to believe you don’t have a very good comprehension on the impact of player control. It seems like you are evaluating players in terms of fantasy value rather than actual asset value. Puig is under team control for 60 more days and a possible playoff run. Franmil Reyes, regardless of your opinion of him, is a 24 year old major league hitter under team control for another 5 years following this one. You don’t understand how one is much more valuable than the other?


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