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Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray [Old Title, Concept Revisited]

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Offline  Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray [Old Title, Concept Revisited]
#1

Posted: July 16, 2019, 8:29 AM Post
Posts: 2030
Sorry all you people that want them to sell...I would LOVE this move.

Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
1h


Source: #Brewers among teams showing interest in #DBacks LHP Robbie Ray. @MLBNetwork @MLB


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#2

Posted: July 16, 2019, 8:33 AM Post
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Brewcrewin07 said:
Sorry all you people that want them to sell...I would LOVE this move.

Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
1h


Source: #Brewers among teams showing interest in #DBacks LHP Robbie Ray. @MLBNetwork @MLB


I like Ray, but they'd have to back the prospect truck up to make this deal. Like totally decimate their top prospects list, plus likely give up ML assets as well. I think Ray would likely command a similar package to what they dealt for Greinke.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#3

Posted: July 16, 2019, 8:36 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Brewcrewin07 said:
Sorry all you people that want them to sell...I would LOVE this move.

Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
1h


Source: #Brewers among teams showing interest in #DBacks LHP Robbie Ray. @MLBNetwork @MLB


Perfect move. Trade for this guy and sell our 1-year deals away and go after it next year when we have a competent team in place.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#4

Posted: July 16, 2019, 8:41 AM Post
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I thought a potential Robbie Ray move made a ton of sense this past off-season if a deal could have been made (link). A LHP that has proven to be consistent in a park that plays very similarly to Miller Park. The biggest knock on Ray is he gives up a ton of walks (4.5 per 9 innings over the past three seasons).

I do wonder if the Diamondbacks would prioritize guys that could be in their lineup or rotation over the next year such as Freddy Peralta, Trent Grisham, Mauricio Dubon. They have pretty solid infielders, so not sure if Dubon would be a great fit.

If the Brewers do make this move I wouldn't hate them trying to work LHRP Andrew Chafin into the deal as well. Like Ray, Chafin is also under contract through next season.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#5

Posted: July 16, 2019, 9:14 AM Post
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The Diamondbacks are a weird team. They made the LDS in 2017 after winning 93 games (Pythagorean of 96 wins), went 82-80 last year (Pythagorean of 86) and decided to trade of their best player Goldschmidt and had two key free agents leave: Corbin and Pollock. They're sitting 47-47 this year (with a Pythagorean of 52-42 ) and they contemplating selling off further.

If I was Milwaukee I'd pounce on a Robbie Ray deal at whatever the prospect cost. They'd acquire a quality controllable starting pitcher and in the process weaken one of the NL playoff contending teams in the process. A 2 for 1!


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#6

Posted: July 16, 2019, 9:34 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:

I like Ray, but they'd have to back the prospect truck up to make this deal. Like totally decimate their top prospects list, plus likely give up ML assets as well. I think Ray would likely command a similar package to what they dealt for Greinke.


According to the trade value site he has 22.9 million in value, so we are talking something like Lutz and Dubon by their measure. Like a lot of guys that are brought up in these trades I go look at the career stats and am not so impressed, only one really good season. Still seems like a good idea if he can be had as cheaply as Lutz/Dubon but I don't think he compares well to the value of 2 years of Greinke when we made that trade. Greinke was and actually still is a better pitcher.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#7

Posted: July 16, 2019, 11:53 AM Post
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You have to look at the entire picture. Ray has pitched 111 innings this year across twenty starts. He has pitched deeper into games than anyone on the Brewers current staff but for Woodruff. He has 145 strike outs in those 111 innings. That bests everyone on the Brewers staff (Woodruff 126Ks in 108 innings). He has allowed 47 earned runs in 111 innings. Woodruff by comparison has allowed 44 in 108 innings, so again Ray has been very similar to Woodruff in 2019. The walks and homeruns are the only blemish on Ray. Yet his homeruns allowed per/9 of 1.3 is still better than Chacin, Chase Anderson, Burnes, Peralta and is equal to Houser.

Based on results Robbie Ray immediately would slot in as the Brewers 2nd best starter, and if Gio Gonzalez comes back and pitches even to his career numbers the Brewers rotation would look significantly better than it does right now.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#8

Posted: July 16, 2019, 11:55 AM Post

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Crazy idea...take on Greinke and his contract as a deal for Ray. Send them 2-3 lotto tickets in A ball. The benefit to them is getting out from under the Greinke contract.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#9

Posted: July 16, 2019, 12:37 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
JackNicholson1974 said:
Crazy idea...take on Greinke and his contract as a deal for Ray. Send them 2-3 lotto tickets in A ball. The benefit to them is getting out from under the Greinke contract.


That won't happen, even if Joseph comes on and calculates that Greinke is a negative value contract...it would still take good prospects to get the Dbacks to move him. Your best bet is to look at the Astros trade for Verlander as a comparable. The Tigers paid a chunk of the contract but got some good prospects back in return. It's not a perfect comparison but should be a good template to look at.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#10

Posted: July 16, 2019, 12:48 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
JackNicholson1974 said:
Crazy idea...take on Greinke and his contract as a deal for Ray. Send them 2-3 lotto tickets in A ball. The benefit to them is getting out from under the Greinke contract.


That won't happen, even if Joseph comes on and calculates that Greinke is a negative value contract...it would still take good prospects to get the Dbacks to move him. Your best bet is to look at the Astros trade for Verlander as a comparable. The Tigers paid a chunk of the contract but got some good prospects back in return. It's not a perfect comparison but should be a good template to look at.


Second this, and the other element is that while teams will openly try to get out of contracts, I feel like Greinke's might be one where optics matter.

The Marlins were filleted (pun intended) for being cheap but even at that, the Stanton move made sense in some ways. Yes it was probably cheap as heck, but in theory if the Marlins were doing an earnest rebuild, you don't want a mid/late 20s Stanton making $30 million in 2024.

Teams will of course attach something to get rid of completely dead weight.

But this one would be an All-Star pitcher with only 2 years left. Yes, he is a huge risk to decline and has been, but the theoretical trade of Ray attached to Greinke to get rid of him would be, "we're rebuilding as of today and by the way, we are just going to pocket $70 million in the process" because Greinke's deal probably won't get in the way of a competitive D-Backs team in 3-5 years.

To look at the trade, as Keith says, we'd probably have to throw some prospects in. If the haul isn't absurd, this wouldn't be too crazy of a trade, though you're basically trading Moose, Grandal, and said prospects for Greinke/Ray in 2020. I doubt we'd be spending money to fill 3B or C next year.

Has a huge risk of backfiring, but it's pretty likely that we're blowing things up in 2021 regardless unless some better luck/MLB talent is injected in.


Last edited by bill hAll Star on July 16, 2019, 12:50 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#11

Posted: July 16, 2019, 12:50 PM Post
Posts: 716
Jopal78! said:
You have to look at the entire picture. Ray has pitched 111 innings this year across twenty starts. He has pitched deeper into games than anyone on the Brewers current staff but for Woodruff. He has 145 strike outs in those 111 innings. That bests everyone on the Brewers staff (Woodruff 126Ks in 108 innings). He has allowed 47 earned runs in 111 innings. Woodruff by comparison has allowed 44 in 108 innings, so again Ray has been very similar to Woodruff in 2019. The walks and homeruns are the only blemish on Ray. Yet his homeruns allowed per/9 of 1.3 is still better than Chacin, Chase Anderson, Burnes, Peralta and is equal to Houser.

Based on results Robbie Ray immediately would slot in as the Brewers 2nd best starter, and if Gio Gonzalez comes back and pitches even to his career numbers the Brewers rotation would look significantly better than it does right now.


That combination of walks and homers sounds like a ticking time bomb. But I am actually fine with making a play for him, getting someone who could help turn it around this year but more importantly starts us on our retool plan for next is just the sort for thing we should be looking at. Plus we know the team would love a lefty in the rotation. But I am not backing up our not so heavy prospect truck for guys like him, Stroman, or Boyd. I keep bringing up Davies whenever we discuss these starting pitching trades but it helps me to understand what we can expect when I compare him to a pitcher I know. Davies has 7.8 bWAR in 557.1 career innings, Ray has 9.2 in 727.1.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#12

Posted: July 16, 2019, 1:10 PM Post
Posts: 41
Location: Madison
I'm not as enthusiastic about Ray as some. But assuming they want a reliable or better starter and\or a quality reliever I would be willing to offer among the following minor league players (with Arcia the exception): Arcia or Dubon; Corey Ray or Trent Grisham; any pitcher(s) except Rasmussen, Ashby, or Antoine Kelly; any position players except Turang, Feliciano, or Lutz. This would adequately protect depth the next few years.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#13

Posted: July 16, 2019, 7:14 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
A couple weeks back, when I was still thinking the team would be in a buying mode, I figured Ray would be the best non-rental starter they could land with what they had in the minors minus Hiura. I had the price figured closer to 30 million than the 22.9 million listed on the baseballtradevalue site. I don't think a deal gets made without Turnag being the centerpiece, so it would be critical that the Diamondbacks like Turang. If so, I think the Ray for Turang + Supak + Bello would be a pretty fair deal.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#14

Posted: July 17, 2019, 8:41 AM Post
Posts: 78
Ray & Holland (22.2M Surplus)

for

Peralta & Ray (25.7 Surplus)

Surplus is based off of trade value site.

Brewers overpay a little in a surplus sense, but I believe they need to because the site is a little high on Ray during his down year.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#15

Posted: July 17, 2019, 9:31 AM Post
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Couple options here:

1. If Attanasio could afford to do it (and none of us really know if he could), I would eat as much of the Greinke contract (2 years $70m after this year) as possible if they could also acquire Ray for limited prospect return.
2. I would very much be interested in acquiring Ray and Archie Bradley, who is having a down year but was quite good in 2017 and 2018, and is signed through 2022.
3. I would also be interested in Greinke alone if they could pay down the contract a little and not expect great prospects in return.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#16

Posted: July 17, 2019, 10:50 AM Post
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Harry Dalton said:
I'm not as enthusiastic about Ray as some. But assuming they want a reliable or better starter and\or a quality reliever I would be willing to offer among the following minor league players (with Arcia the exception): Arcia or Dubon; Corey Ray or Trent Grisham; any pitcher(s) except Rasmussen, Ashby, or Antoine Kelly; any position players except Turang, Feliciano, or Lutz. This would adequately protect depth the next few years.


If they are looking for pitching what's left to offer them? Arcia may interest them. Grisham may interest them as part of a package, but where's the pitching they'd want?


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#17

Posted: July 17, 2019, 10:58 AM Post
Posts: 2030
wntrtxn21 said:
Harry Dalton said:
I'm not as enthusiastic about Ray as some. But assuming they want a reliable or better starter and\or a quality reliever I would be willing to offer among the following minor league players (with Arcia the exception): Arcia or Dubon; Corey Ray or Trent Grisham; any pitcher(s) except Rasmussen, Ashby, or Antoine Kelly; any position players except Turang, Feliciano, or Lutz. This would adequately protect depth the next few years.


If they are looking for pitching what's left to offer them? Arcia may interest them. Grisham may interest them as part of a package, but where's the pitching they'd want?


Peralta...IF and only if Ray is the top arm they'd get. if they get him plus another bigger arm, then I'd put Peralta in that deal.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#18

Posted: July 17, 2019, 11:10 AM Post
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It works out sort of nicely that the Brewers play a four game series against the Diamondbacks starting tomorrow, but won’t face Ray since he’s scheduled to pitch today.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#19

Posted: July 17, 2019, 11:20 AM Post
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Warning Track Power said:
Couple options here:

1. If Attanasio could afford to do it (and none of us really know if he could), I would eat as much of the Greinke contract (2 years $70m after this year) as possible if they could also acquire Ray for limited prospect return.
2. I would very much be interested in acquiring Ray and Archie Bradley, who is having a down year but was quite good in 2017 and 2018, and is signed through 2022.
3. I would also be interested in Greinke alone if they could pay down the contract a little and not expect great prospects in return.


Thinking outside the box along these lines is a good thing, IMO.

Ideally, I'd go for option #1 - Ray and Greinke for a combination of Nottingham, Erceg, and Chase Anderson. Keep to that.

That provides a rotation of Woodruff, Greinke, Ray, Davies, and Gio when all are healthy.
Bullpen of Hader, Peralta, Jeffress, Houser, Peralta, Claudio, Jackson, Guerra, and Chacin.

Hard part after that is extending Moose and Grandal... but that pitching staff gives Milwaukee a very good shot at a World Series win.


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Offline  Re: Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray
#20

Posted: July 17, 2019, 4:53 PM Post
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Has there been any real indication that the Dbacks are desperate to dump Greinke's contract? Even if they were, would they package a trade asset like Ray with him and seriously devalue the return just to do so?


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