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SS market

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Offline  Re: SS market
#41

Posted: July 25, 2019, 10:43 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
Colorado is a team I think should tear it down and tank. They have some really bad contracts and very little talent.


Do they?

They went out and overpaid a bunch of relievers because their assumed good, young pitching staff was making $5 million COMBINED per year last year and pretty much this year.

So sure, Wade Davis, Shaw, etc. were overpaid for relievers but I saw their intent.

However, next year is the final contract year for Davis, McGee, Shaw, and Murphy. Desmond is on the books in 2021 for $8 million.

So I do get the idea that they might not have much upward mobility at this point, it's not like they're cash-strapped forever. If their owner wants to spend up and win next year, he can. The following year they are a blank slate other than Blackmon and Arenado, basically. I don't think contracts will be holding them back.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#42

Posted: July 25, 2019, 10:47 AM Post
Posts: 677
You weren’t kidding. They are a mess.

Paying $18 mil for a 5 ERA closer. $15 mil for a -1.3 war CF. $10 mil for a -.1 war 2nd baseman. Arenado and Blackmon havebeen pretty solid. I stopped at players making $10 mil. But all these players are signed for atleast next year at a min of $10 mil.

3 of there top 7 salaried players are relied pitchers.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#43

Posted: July 25, 2019, 10:50 AM Post
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Location: Chicago
What about Addison Russell?

Yes, he plays for a Division rival, and yes he has some personal baggage. However, the Cubs just optioned him to AAA despite not having a replacement at 2B. I assume they are done with the Russell and if they can't trade him he will be non-tendered after the season.

Despite the fact the Brewers are a division rival, perhaps Cubs management would prefer to get something for Russell than drop him for nothing in the off-season. Russell remains a solid defender at shortstop and second base. He hasn't hit much the last two plus seasons, but his .733 OPS this year is better than Arcia, Perez, Saladino, etc., and his career marks top those players as well. Russell is arbitration eligible for two more seasons.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#44

Posted: July 25, 2019, 11:04 AM Post
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ThisIsMyCrew said:
You weren’t kidding. They are a mess.

Paying $18 mil for a 5 ERA closer. $15 mil for a -1.3 war CF. $10 mil for a -.1 war 2nd baseman. Arenado and Blackmon havebeen pretty solid. I stopped at players making $10 mil. But all these players are signed for atleast next year at a min of $10 mil.

3 of there top 7 salaried players are relied pitchers.


Teams with "bad contracts" are ones like Miguel Cabrera or Chris Davis spanning 3-5 more years. Or Pujols.

The Rockies' contracts barely make a dent in their long-term outlook is the point.

Some people will say, "lol Wade Davis isn't worth $17 million next year" but the reality is that they probably have room to sign some guys next year and if they really wanted to could sign a 10 year/$300 million player the following year and stay within their usual budget.

The sign of a team that needs to rebuild with horrendous contracts is not one that has a pretty blank slate after 2020 is all I was saying. One could still argue that they don't have enough to compete next year and not enough coming up in the minors, that is a fair argument.

Arenado and maybe Blackmon are the worst contracts but neither of those are concerns in the 2-3 year outlook.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#45

Posted: July 25, 2019, 11:08 AM Post
Posts: 985
Jopal78! said:
What about Addison Russell?

Yes, he plays for a Division rival, and yes he has some personal baggage


That's a hard no from me. Jeffress (DUI) and Braun (Cheating, and how he handled it) could be said to have "some personal baggage", but Russell is on a whole different level to that. I absolutely do not want him on the Brewers. He's a better player than Arcia, but I'd never want to replace Arcia with Russell.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#46

Posted: July 25, 2019, 11:11 AM Post
Posts: 4851
Location: New Berlin, WI
Lathund said:
Jopal78! said:
What about Addison Russell?

Yes, he plays for a Division rival, and yes he has some personal baggage


That's a hard no from me. Jeffress (DUI) and Braun (Cheating, and how he handled it) could be said to have "some personal baggage", but Russell is on a whole different level to that. I absolutely do not want him on the Brewers. He's a better player than Arcia, but I'd never want to replace Arcia with Russell.


We should never ever make an even remotely substantial trade with the Cubs. I could care less about the whole moral superiority nonsense, we're talking about baseball and trying to help the Brewers win. We agree in the end, but for extremely different reasons.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#47

Posted: July 25, 2019, 11:18 AM Post
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Lathund said:
Jopal78! said:
What about Addison Russell?

Yes, he plays for a Division rival, and yes he has some personal baggage


That's a hard no from me. Jeffress (DUI) and Braun (Cheating, and how he handled it) could be said to have "some personal baggage", but Russell is on a whole different level to that. I absolutely do not want him on the Brewers. He's a better player than Arcia, but I'd never want to replace Arcia with Russell.

Amen to this. I would rather lose than root for someone who abuses women. Just my feelings on the subject.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#48

Posted: July 25, 2019, 11:25 AM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
ThisIsMyCrew said:
You weren’t kidding. They are a mess.

Paying $18 mil for a 5 ERA closer. $15 mil for a -1.3 war CF. $10 mil for a -.1 war 2nd baseman. Arenado and Blackmon havebeen pretty solid. I stopped at players making $10 mil. But all these players are signed for atleast next year at a min of $10 mil.

3 of there top 7 salaried players are relied pitchers.


Teams with "bad contracts" are ones like Miguel Cabrera or Chris Davis spanning 3-5 more years. Or Pujols.

The Rockies' contracts barely make a dent in their long-term outlook is the point.

Some people will say, "lol Wade Davis isn't worth $17 million next year" but the reality is that they probably have room to sign some guys next year and if they really wanted to could sign a 10 year/$300 million player the following year and stay within their usual budget.

The sign of a team that needs to rebuild with horrendous contracts is not one that has a pretty blank slate after 2020 is all I was saying. One could still argue that they don't have enough to compete next year and not enough coming up in the minors, that is a fair argument.

Arenado and maybe Blackmon are the worst contracts but neither of those are concerns in the 2-3 year outlook.


Jumping on my own take here, if the Rockies truly did want to just do an ownership cash grab next year, their relievers would be interesting:

Davis' road ERA: 0.96
McGee road ERA: 1.32
Shaw road ERA: 3.42

Those are the "bad (read: not that bad anymore)" contracts, all of which are only on the hook for 2020. If the Rockies want to just line their owners' pockets or hit a reset button, I'd be interested in grabbing one of those guys and paying a % of the contract while not giving up much of anything.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#49

Posted: July 25, 2019, 11:32 AM Post
Posts: 636
Not only is Russell a bad human being, he’s not a very good ball player. Hard pass.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#50

Posted: July 25, 2019, 11:33 AM Post
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I'd probably just pass on Russell. There may still be something there but I don't think he's a huge upgrade at this point. Throw in the baggage (yes, I, too, will let everyone know that I am boldly against domestic abuse on here) and it probably isn't worth sending anything of value for Russell. I honestly didn't understand why the Cubs jumped through so many hoops to give him more chances. It feels dirty, but if he was a really could player you could somewhat understand it but Russell's offense has fizzled and his defense is good but I can go get his production elsewhere.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#51

Posted: July 25, 2019, 11:58 AM Post
Posts: 4851
Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
I'd probably just pass on Russell. There may still be something there but I don't think he's a huge upgrade at this point. Throw in the baggage (yes, I, too, will let everyone know that I am boldly against domestic abuse on here) and it probably isn't worth sending anything of value for Russell. I honestly didn't understand why the Cubs jumped through so many hoops to give him more chances. It feels dirty, but if he was a really could player you could somewhat understand it but Russell's offense has fizzled and his defense is good but I can go get his production elsewhere.


I think everyone is against abusing women, except for a very small minority of people that do it. But I tend to agree, I just don't think he's that good. This isn't like a Roberto Osuna situation where the guy is actually a stud, and you can get away with making an announcement denouncing his actions but use the player(and probably behind the scenes be sure to straighten him out). Russell might be mildly more valuable than Arcia at most, but not enough of an upgrade to be worth anything. And again, I would never ever trade with the cubs on principle.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#52

Posted: July 25, 2019, 5:39 PM Post
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I'm not against getting Story. I'm against selling a bunch of our top 10 prospects to get a guy who isn't an 800 OPS guy outside of Coors field, and is probably a 3 WAR guy if he's not a Rockie. I dont want to sell the farm for a guy who's value is inflated because he's a Rockie.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#53

Posted: July 29, 2019, 6:54 AM Post
Posts: 479
Greg Garcia would be a nice utility upgrade and a nice leadoff option with his 350+OBP


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Offline  Re: SS market
#54

Posted: July 29, 2019, 7:04 AM Post
Posts: 27
How about just giving Dubon a chance?


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Offline  Re: SS market
#55

Posted: July 29, 2019, 7:24 AM Post
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PaulLeoMolitor said:
How about just giving Dubon a chance?


Yeah, my thoughts exactly. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect him to hit at Arcia/Saladino levels right now, and getting him acclimated to the bigs now could pay dividends in future years. Seems to make sense for the short and long term. If he isn’t dealt, I’d be surprised if he isn’t up again in August.

What is best in life? To crush the Cardinals, Cubs, and Manny Machado, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their fanboys.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#56

Posted: July 29, 2019, 7:47 AM Post
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I hope the Brewers tell Arcia the job is yours for the remainder of the season and give Arcia a shot of confidence. Then if nothing gets better and they want to address the position, do it in the off season.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#57

Posted: July 29, 2019, 7:53 AM Post
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I agree roll with Arcia


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Offline  Re: SS market
#58

Posted: July 29, 2019, 8:16 AM Post
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Does Jonathan Villar make sense for the crew if they do want another option? Having a very nice season for Baltimore and plays 2B/SS. As great as Slamadino is I think Villar would be a better player.


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Offline  Re: SS market
#59

Posted: July 29, 2019, 8:40 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
Does Jonathan Villar make sense for the crew if they do want another option? Having a very nice season for Baltimore and plays 2B/SS. As great as Slamadino is I think Villar would be a better player.


No. Please God, no.

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Offline  Re: SS market
#60

Posted: July 29, 2019, 9:36 AM Post
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SS is the biggest opportunity to improve on the position player side, and to do so without having to DFA a player you'd ideally like to keep since Arcia (and Saladino for that matter) has options. Arcia, Saladino and Perez have combined for -0.8 fWAR (And yeah, that includes time at other positions as well for Perez/Saladino). Even a slightly below-average SS could improve on that by at least a win.

Looking at players with 1000+ PAs since Arcia entered the league in 2016 (He has 1502 PAs), his 71 wRC+ is the 6th worst behind Hamilton, Escobar, Echevarria, Owings, Hedges. His 0.3 fWAR is 9th worst. It's also not a case of an early struggle bringing his later numbers down, he has a 68 wRC+ this year. Over the last two months it's at 40, so not a positive in-season trend either. He is doing some things differently this year though, swinging less often at pitches, especially outside the zone, but it isn't paying off yet. His BABIP is down which could explain it, but at the same time Statcast doesn't think he's being unlucky, giving him only a .216 xBA, close to last years .214 or his career .229. And the eye test isn't pretty, he flails at the plate still, not a balanced fundamentally sound swing there. I wouldn't put much weight on the upcoming point, since I've heard it said he is a hard worker and great clubhouse presence etc., but the frequent slamming of bats and helmets after making outs isn't what I'd think makes for the best way towards a consistent approach.

As far as defense goes, defensive metrics don't like him. And at this sample size, defensive metrics do matter. The issue with them isn't that they're not accurately measuring defense, they operate by assigning credit for plays made and penalties for plays not made, which is basically what defense is. The issue is instead that even over relatively long periods of time, the amount of balls hit towards a player that he can make a play on, and the quality of the hits and speed of runner, defensive alignment and base-out states etc. can vary quite a lot. But Arcia is at around 2.5 full seasons worth of data over 4 different seasons, which is comparable in accuracy to roughly a full seasons worth of a stat like OPS+/wRC+, so it does tell us a fair bit. The defensive metrics handles things like shifts (Or rather batted balls where several different positions make plays) differently, yet he's not elite or even good by any of them. Baserunning isn't an asset either, he's not very fast and not a very good baserunner, just about average overall by the baserunning metrics at FG, B-ref and Bpro.

The three main WAR frameworks (fWAR, rWAR/bWAR, WARP) do disagree slightly about Arcia; but their overall assesment (Treating his 1500 PAs as the equivalent of just over two full season) ranges between replacement level (0.3 fWAR), bench player (2.3 rWAR) and an average starter (4.3 WARP). So it depends a bit on what metric you trust most, but looking at them overall it's not a very rosy picture. And nearly all the value comes from 2017 in all three cases.

If it was a matter of having to give up on Arcia (i.e no options and no roster space), I would understand the reluctance to make a move at the deadline, as he is still young and will have 3 years of team control remaining after this year, but that's not an issue here since he does have options. But, the real problem here is the SS market. Most options I can think of have been mentioned. There are guys like Santana who is having a career year and will be expensive due to several years of control. There's someone like Galvis who is an upgrade, but not a major one at all. A guy like Forsythe who is more of a utility man with limited SS experience and who has cooled off the since suggestions was made.

The top 10 teams by fWAR from SS this year are 9 playoff contenders and the Padres who obviously aren't selling there. Several selling teams have guys at SS they probably want for when they're in contention (Mondesi, Tim Anderson, maybe Goodrum?). Others have guys that wouldn't be any real upgrade. Someone like Elvis Andrus is on a big contract and mainly a defense first option. Maybe J.P Crawford, but he's probably not moving.

TL;DR SS is definitely in need of an upgrade and should be a priority. Problem is there's not a lot out there...


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