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Seattle Mariners

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Offline  Seattle Mariners
#1

Posted: July 21, 2019, 6:28 AM Post
Posts: 332
I know this isn't the "big name" pitcher trade but how about Tim Beckham, Mike Leake, Roenis Elias and 5 million dollars for Maurico Dubon, Taylor Williams, and Bubba Derby?

Why?
Bechkam replaces Saladino. It appears Dubon is not going to get a shot. Dubon and JP Crawford give the Mariners a young middle infield. Beckham is a versatile middle infielder and puts the ball in play.
Leake is better than what we have and the 5 millions goes towards his 2020 salary. He also wants out of Seattle for they may sell cheap.
Elias and Houser can set up Hader. Elias is controllable and does display elite stuff at times, just not Hader elite. Elias gives Milwaukee a closer alternative.
Williams and Derby are pieces that we can sell because they are blocked and are not big sells.

Critics, blast away! The trade does address three of Milwaukee's issues.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#2

Posted: July 21, 2019, 7:08 AM Post
Posts: 12133
It addresses the issues but are those guys really upgrades? Leake's no better than Chase Anderson. Elias is no better than Jeffress, and while Beckham is an upgrade over Saladino, offensively he's Perez with a little more HR pop. That being said, I'm not sure Williams and Derby have much value and could get it done.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#3

Posted: July 21, 2019, 9:03 AM Post
Posts: 332
Leake has better and more reliable than the entire rotation other than Woodruff in 2019.
Elias has big, lefty velocity and is rising, Jeffress has inconsistent velocity.
Beckham is a lot better SS than Perez. The Brewers need a reserve SS. The Mariners may want to make JP Crawford their everyday, uncontested SS.
Williams and Derby have little value to the Brewers but they are taking on Leake's contract. I think the Mariners would like to get out from under it. Arguably, Dubon is the most sought after player in the trade which off sets the two lesser players Milwaukee is giving up.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#4

Posted: July 21, 2019, 9:39 AM Post
Posts: 88
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
Leake has better and more reliable than the entire rotation other than Woodruff in 2019.
Elias has big, lefty velocity and is rising, Jeffress has inconsistent velocity.
Beckham is a lot better SS than Perez. The Brewers need a reserve SS. The Mariners may want to make JP Crawford their everyday, uncontested SS.
Williams and Derby have little value to the Brewers but they are taking on Leake's contract. I think the Mariners would like to get out from under it. Arguably, Dubon is the most sought after player in the trade which off sets the two lesser players Milwaukee is giving up.

Why does everyone hate Davies? Leake has absolutely not been better or more reliable than Davies this year... I guess I wouldn’t mind this deal but I agree with others that I sort of doubt our proposed package gets it done.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#5

Posted: July 21, 2019, 10:31 AM Post
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Smichaelis9 said:
BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
Leake has better and more reliable than the entire rotation other than Woodruff in 2019.
Elias has big, lefty velocity and is rising, Jeffress has inconsistent velocity.
Beckham is a lot better SS than Perez. The Brewers need a reserve SS. The Mariners may want to make JP Crawford their everyday, uncontested SS.
Williams and Derby have little value to the Brewers but they are taking on Leake's contract. I think the Mariners would like to get out from under it. Arguably, Dubon is the most sought after player in the trade which off sets the two lesser players Milwaukee is giving up.

Why does everyone hate Davies? Leake has absolutely not been better or more reliable than Davies this year... I guess I wouldn’t mind this deal but I agree with others that I sort of doubt our proposed package gets it done.


Leake is not a Brewer. Therefore he must be better.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#6

Posted: July 21, 2019, 10:48 AM Post
Posts: 12169
JohnBriggs12 said:
It addresses the issues but are those guys really upgrades? Leake's no better than Chase Anderson. Elias is no better than Jeffress, and while Beckham is an upgrade over Saladino, offensively he's Perez with a little more HR pop. That being said, I'm not sure Williams and Derby have much value and could get it done.


Leake wouldn’t replace Chase Anderson, he would replace Chacín...who is one of the worst starters to consistently pick up a baseball among competing teams.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#7

Posted: July 21, 2019, 11:30 AM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
Leake is another Davies type of a pitcher which is fine and if you are replacing Chacin with Leake that is also fine.
Beckham replacing Saladino is fine but I would rather replace Saladion with Dubon or Perez.
I don't like Elias at all though as he walks way too many.

I wouldn't give up either Dubon or Williams in this package.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#8

Posted: July 21, 2019, 11:40 AM Post
Posts: 1844
MrTPlush said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
It addresses the issues but are those guys really upgrades? Leake's no better than Chase Anderson. Elias is no better than Jeffress, and while Beckham is an upgrade over Saladino, offensively he's Perez with a little more HR pop. That being said, I'm not sure Williams and Derby have much value and could get it done.


Leake wouldn’t replace Chase Anderson, he would replace Chacín...who is one of the worst starters to consistently pick up a baseball among competing teams.


Leake isn't that much better than Chacin IMO...if they are going for a starter, I'd prefer it be a BIG starter, that moves the needle significantly. Same with the bullpen arms they may acquire.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#9

Posted: July 21, 2019, 11:45 AM Post
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Brewcrewin07 said:
Leake isn't that much better than Chacin IMO.


Out of curiosity, what are you basing that on?


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#10

Posted: July 21, 2019, 12:44 PM Post
Posts: 332
Besides getting blown up once, look at the length of Leake's starts. I don't dislike Davies at all. Lining up pitcher like below would avoid throwing two guys on back to back days with similar stuff. I'm speechless that anyone would think Jeffress and Elias are equal. The Brewers need an innings eater so they can use the pen, and mainly Claudio accordingly and that is what Leake is.

1. Woodruff
2. Gonzalez
3. Leake
4. Anderson
5. Davies


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#11

Posted: July 21, 2019, 7:43 PM Post
Posts: 503
BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
I know this isn't the "big name" pitcher trade but how about Tim Beckham, Mike Leake, Roenis Elias and 5 million dollars for Maurico Dubon, Taylor Williams, and Bubba Derby?

Why?
Bechkam replaces Saladino. It appears Dubon is not going to get a shot. Dubon and JP Crawford give the Mariners a young middle infield. Beckham is a versatile middle infielder and puts the ball in play.
Leake is better than what we have and the 5 millions goes towards his 2020 salary. He also wants out of Seattle for they may sell cheap.
Elias and Houser can set up Hader. Elias is controllable and does display elite stuff at times, just not Hader elite. Elias gives Milwaukee a closer alternative.
Williams and Derby are pieces that we can sell because they are blocked and are not big sells.

Critics, blast away! The trade does address three of Milwaukee's issues.


Why would the Crew want to take on Leake's salary? He may be marginally better than a #5 (4.80 FIP - 24 dingers already - more hits than IPs), but his salary is more than the Crew wants for a #5 and in no way a difference maker. Elias 4.85 ERA - 4.91 WHIP - 1.34 WHIP - a HR every 5 IPs. He is worse than Albers, Jeffress, Guerra, Houser. Not much help for the Brewers and the Mariners get a salary dump plus a pretty good prospect.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#12

Posted: July 21, 2019, 8:28 PM Post
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Posts: 496
Location: Chicago
He doesn’t walk anybody and he doesn’t strike many batters out. So basically the ball is put in play against him. Being a fly ball pitcher who pitches to contact; that style of game doesn’t really suit Miller Park. (With three hitters parks in the division explains likely why the Cardinals paid Seattle to take him a year into his contract).


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#13

Posted: July 23, 2019, 6:16 AM Post
Posts: 12133
Given the choice of adding Leake at a reasonable cost or trying to get by with a 4 man rotation sans Woodruff and including the struggling Chacin, I'd opt for adding Leake and going with 5 starters. He's a 2.1 WAR guy so far this year per B-R. He'd be a decent replacement for Chacin in the 2020 rotation too.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#14

Posted: July 23, 2019, 7:08 AM Post
Posts: 503
JohnBriggs12 said:
Given the choice of adding Leake at a reasonable cost or trying to get by with a 4 man rotation sans Woodruff and including the struggling Chacin, I'd opt for adding Leake and going with 5 starters. He's a 2.1 WAR guy so far this year per B-R. He'd be a decent replacement for Chacin in the 2020 rotation too.


Leake isn't worth the approx $15-16M (IF Sea. throws in $5M) he would cost for 2020. He's a #5 and that's far too much for a #5.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#15

Posted: July 23, 2019, 7:53 AM Post
Posts: 1779
Location: Madison, WI
The Cardinals are already picking up a pretty big chunk of Leake's contract. Subtract out what the Cardinals are paying and his annual salaries are: 11 million in 2019, 11 million in 2020, 5 million buyout in 2021. The Mariners paid 18 million of the 21 million left on Jay Bruce's contract when they traded him to Philadelphia. The Mariners also paid the Yankees 8 million when sending Edwin Encarnacion to New York. Subtract out what the Cardinals are paying Leake, and the remainder due is almost exactly 20 million. The Mariners would likely pick up at least half of that total. I'm pretty confident that if the Brewers made a trade for Leake that the most they would be on the hook would be something like 2 million this year, 5.5 million next year and 2.5 million of the 2021 buyout.

Leake is a crazy up-and-down pitcher, but there is one very attractive aspect of his game:
2019 = on pace for 31 starts, 195 2/3 innings
2018 = 31 starts, 185 2/3 innings
2017 = 31 starts, 186 innings
2016 = 30 starts, 176 2/3 innings
2015 = 30 starts, 192 innings
2014 = 33 starts, 214 1/3 innings
2013 = 31 starts, 192 1/3 innings
2012 = 30 starts, 179 innings
He will take the ball and give the team innings. The juiced ball is the only thing to worry about with him. From 2016-2018, he posted a very solid 3.96 FIP. That has ballooned to 4.80 this year and it's almost entirely due to the home run (HR/9 was 1.0 from 2016-2018, has jumped to 1.7 in 2019).

I definitely would not dismiss Leake if what I suspect is true and the Mariners would pick up 50+% of his remaining salary. The HR aspect is a definite concern but when looking at some of the numbers....his HR/FB ratio sits at 17.0% and that's above league average but it's not crazy high (league average is around 15.2%). His ground ball percentage sits at 46.3% which is above average (ranks 29 out of 76 qualifiers). And the prospect return to Seattle would probably qualify as something next to zero (I don't think a Bubba Derby would be out of the question). There is enough value here that I would be interested if Seattle initiated talks.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#16

Posted: July 24, 2019, 5:37 PM Post
Posts: 1099
I thought when one team trades cash along with a player, even if that player gets traded again, the original money doesn't go with the player. I could be way off though.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#17

Posted: July 24, 2019, 6:49 PM Post
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Location: Chicago
With injuries to Woodruff and Chacin; I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers traded for Leake. Cardinals paying contract down to 11 million per year, so he’d be owed roughly 5 million this year and 11 next year.

Brewers could probably have him for next to nothing talent wise if they absorb the contract.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#18

Posted: July 24, 2019, 7:02 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
Jopal78! said:
With injuries to Woodruff and Chacin; I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers traded for Leake. Cardinals paying contract down to 11 million per year, so he’d be owed roughly 5 million this year and 11 next year.

Brewers could probably have him for next to nothing talent wise if they absorb the contract.


Nottingham for Leake would be about fair.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#19

Posted: July 24, 2019, 7:27 PM Post
Posts: 503
Jopal78! said:
With injuries to Woodruff and Chacin; I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers traded for Leake. Cardinals paying contract down to 11 million per year, so he’d be owed roughly 5 million this year and 11 next year.

Brewers could probably have him for next to nothing talent wise if they absorb the contract.


Plus the $5M buyout in 2021 brings the total to approx. $21M for one year. Leake isn't worth even 1/2 that much.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#20

Posted: July 24, 2019, 10:43 PM Post
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The Weatherman
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Every time I see Mike Leake on the mound I am amazed that the guy still has a job. Then I remember he is on the last place Mariners and he plays half his games in the Seattle marine layer. His 5.90 road ERA is probably a good estimate of what his ERA would be with the Brewers. And that might be generous.

The only Mariner I would want is Marco Gonzales.


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