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Padres Trade Brewing?

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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#81

Posted: July 30, 2019, 8:41 AM Post
Posts: 1997
RoCoBrewfan said:
As Jopal stated, Braun's OPS'ing .800 and still producing at the plate. It could be worse, he could be Pujols.

Grisham's been pretty "meh" throughout much of his minor league career. He's suddenly mashing in 6 weeks at AAA (where almost everyone at San Antonio hits, even Tyler Saladino), so if I can get a big overpay based on that 6 weeks of production, I'd take it in a hurry. I'm not suggesting he'll be a bust or not a productive big leaguer, but if the Brewers can get a 2 or even a 3 type starter with multiple years of control for Grisham+, it's something they should seriously consider (IMO)


I think to say he has only mashed for six weeks in AAA is disingenuous.

Yes, the PCL is a hitters paradise. But, I think the Southern League is pretty average for hitter vs. pitcher stats, right. So his .875 OPS in AA is pretty darn good before being promoted. His whole season has been very good, not just six weeks.


Last edited by Roderick on July 30, 2019, 8:44 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#82

Posted: July 30, 2019, 8:44 AM Post
Posts: 1802
monkeyman343434 said:
Everyone in AAA is hitting a lot better this year due to the fact they're using the MLB juiced ball this season, but that doesn't take away from the fact that Grisham has put up a 173 wRC+ in his time in AAA. He really does look like the perfect player to take over in LF in 2021, the only problem is what to do with him in 2020. He really shouldn't be the 4th OF, as that would be bad for his growth, but maybe he comes up as the starter if one of the 3 starting OFs gets hurt in 2020 and he could get the DH abs in interleague series. I really hope they don't deal him away at the deadline. Think he finally has developed into what they were hoping when they drafted him, that's what the minors are all about, developing, guys don't automatically put up 1.000 OPS numbers when they're in A, or A+, they're there to hone their skills and turn into what Grisham has finally turned into this year. Glad they stuck with him and that he finally put it all together


Me too, because now his trade value is much higher.


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#83

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:09 AM Post
Posts: 525
So, if the Padres do trade Thor to SD for Margot+, the Padres would have even more of a surplus of SP. So, assuming we are talking to SD about some of their SP - which of the following group would you most like to see the Brewers get in a return for someone like Grisham:

Lucchesi
Lauer
Allen
Morejon

I'm leaving Paddock, Quantrill and Gore off of this list, as I'm guessing those guys are untouchable.


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Online  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#84

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:10 AM Post
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I think you just put Grisham back in AAA next year and call him up after an injury. Braun will probably only play 110 - 125 games next year.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#85

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:13 AM Post
Posts: 636
madtownhawk said:
So, if the Padres do trade Thor to SD for Margot+, the Padres would have even more of a surplus of SP. So, assuming we are talking to SD about some of their SP - which of the following group would you most like to see the Brewers get in a return for someone like Grisham:

Lucchesi
Lauer
Allen
Morejon

I'm leaving Paddock, Quantrill and Gore off of this list, as I'm guessing those guys are untouchable.


Lucchesi would be my first choice but I’m not sure the Padres would consider moving him.


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#86

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:13 AM Post
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Grisham has a 173 wRC+ and a 178 DRC+ in AAA. Relative to a league full of mashers, his offensive production is about 75% better than said mashers.

75%.

People also tend to forget how young he is, I think. 21 months ago, he was not legally able to drink.


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#87

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:21 AM Post
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And That said:
Grisham has a 173 wRC+ and a 178 DRC+. Relative to a league full of mashers, his offensive production is about 75% better than said mashers.

75%.


Also, he's 22. Hit .854 in the rookie leagues at 18. Then he struggled in A/A+ but was 2-3 years younger than league avg. And had a couple nagging injuries to deal with.

Numbers only tell part of the story though, otherwise Brinson would have been in the AS game this year. Grisham has a short swing, good eye, can draw walks...all things that usually translate well to MLB. I don't think he's a sure thing, but there's enough there that I want to find out.


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#88

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:23 AM Post
Posts: 677
And That said:
Grisham has a 173 wRC+ and a 178 DRC+ in AAA. Relative to a league full of mashers, his offensive production is about 75% better than said mashers.

75%.

People also tend to forget how young he is, I think. 21 months ago, he was not legally able to drink.


I agree he is better than most at AAA. But using 21 months as a point seems like a stretch. That’s like me saying my daughter graduated high school 32 months ago, which is basically 3 years.


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#89

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:25 AM Post
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ThisIsMyCrew said:
But using 21 months as a point seems like a stretch. That’s like me saying my daughter graduated high school 32 months ago, which is basically 3 years.

Ok? He's young for the league.


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#90

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:29 AM Post
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Comparing Grisham to someone like Saladino is deeply flawed. Yeah, we should be skeptical of a hot streak that doesn't follow from past performance, and we should take into account park affects. But, Grisham's emergence shows signs of being more than a fluke. He's a young guy for the league who was a highly regarded hitter in the draft but whose performance seemed to suffer due to his overly passive approach at the plate. His wRC+ has still always been 100+ despite him being quite young for his leagues, and he's always run good OBP even when his BA and SLG seemed disappointing. (In part, that reflects challenging environments for hitters in the Brewers' low minors, R+ excepted. Of course Grisham skipped R+.). Now as he's addressed the flaw that everyone saw in his approach, the results have followed. He's got less defensive value than some other brewers OF prospects, but some of the arguments about his offensive potential sound more like attempts to win an argument than serious evaluations of his future value.


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#91

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:31 AM Post
Posts: 401
With how little the Mets gave up to get Stroman, there is no way we need to give up our top prospect for anyone we acquire this deadline.


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#92

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:36 AM Post
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And yes, given his age, he might reasonably be compared to a 2018 college draftee. Most of the top college bats from that draft started this season in A ball and have had a half season of AA. (I guess at least one is in Arizona Cardinals training camp...)


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#93

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:36 AM Post
Posts: 1802
shanedog19 said:
With how little the Mets gave up to get Stroman, there is no way we need to give up our top prospect for anyone we acquire this deadline.


I agree, they won't have to give up Turang.


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#94

Posted: July 30, 2019, 10:36 AM Post
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shanedog19 said:
With how little the Mets gave up to get Stroman, there is no way we need to give up our top prospect for anyone we acquire this deadline.


exactly.

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PrinceFielderx1 Said:
If the Brewers don't win the division I should be banned. However, they will.


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#95

Posted: July 30, 2019, 11:03 AM Post
Posts: 537
Kay did make his way into the top 100 before they came out with the mis-season top 100


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#96

Posted: July 30, 2019, 11:46 AM Post
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And That said:
Grisham has a 173 wRC+ and a 178 DRC+ in AAA. Relative to a league full of mashers, his offensive production is about 75% better than said mashers.

75%.

People also tend to forget how young he is, I think. 21 months ago, he was not legally able to drink.

Its also worth noting that over his last 200 PA at AA, he was 90% better than that league of I suppose, not mashers and had a 1.5:1 BB:K ratio.


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#97

Posted: July 30, 2019, 2:25 PM Post
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Dinelson Lamet would be an interesting pitcher from the Padres to acquire if available.

He seems like he'd be a dominant bullpen arm IMO.

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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#98

Posted: July 30, 2019, 2:37 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Dinelson Lamet would be an interesting pitcher from the Padres to acquire if available.

He seems like he'd be a dominant bullpen arm IMO.


Bullpen this year and then starter this year


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
#99

Posted: July 30, 2019, 2:48 PM Post
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I firmly believe Grisham should be valued around a top 30-50 MLB prospect, much higher than his media ranking.

There's plenty of reason to believe that what he is doing now isn't flukey.

If the industry doesn't value him that highly, that's fine. I'll be more than happy to see him develop into our likely LF of the future. But to want to just cash in on him now because he didn't do this in the past, is flawed, IMO.

Grisham always had the ability to play baseball at this level, and as others have said, he is still ridiculously young and developing. This is not some 30 year old journeyman just putting up great AAA numbers out of nowhere.


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Offline  Re: Padres Trade Brewing?
Posted: July 30, 2019, 2:59 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
I firmly believe Grisham should be valued around a top 30-50 MLB prospect, much higher than his media ranking.

There's plenty of reason to believe that what he is doing now isn't flukey.

If the industry doesn't value him that highly, that's fine. I'll be more than happy to see him develop into our likely LF of the future. But to want to just cash in on him now because he didn't do this in the past, is flawed, IMO.

Grisham always had the ability to play baseball at this level, and as others have said, he is still ridiculously young and developing. This is not some 30 year old journeyman just putting up great AAA numbers out of nowhere.


I think you are overvaluing Grisham by quite a bit.

I think Stearns would be wise to sell high on Grisham while he has regained a lot of his value.

Not sold on him becoming anything more than a replacement level player at the big league level.

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