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Shop Lorenzo Cain?

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Offline  Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#1

Posted: August 14, 2019, 5:46 PM Post
Posts: 18409
Last season, Cain was one of the more valuable players in the league. Fast forward to a season later, and the remaining 3 years and 50ish million on his contract looks pretty daunting.

The good news is, his defense is still elite to the tune of being a 1.8 WAR player so far despite the poor season by his standards.

My question is, should we be shopping Cain in the offseason? With Grisham appearing to emerge, it would eliminate any issue trying to find him playing time next season. It would also open up salary to pursue other needs in the offseason. Cain still has enough value and is coming off a strong enough 2018 where a team out there might like to take a shot for 3/50.

Realistically, should we pursue this, how much salary should we realistically expect to have to eat, and what, if anything could we expect in return?


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#2

Posted: August 14, 2019, 6:12 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Last season, Cain was one of the more valuable players in the league. Fast forward to a season later, and the remaining 3 years and 50ish million on his contract looks pretty daunting.

The good news is, his defense is still elite to the tune of being a 1.8 WAR player so far despite the poor season by his standards.

My question is, should we be shopping Cain in the offseason? With Grisham appearing to emerge, it would eliminate any issue trying to find him playing time next season. It would also open up salary to pursue other needs in the offseason. Cain still has enough value and is coming off a strong enough 2018 where a team out there might like to take a shot for 3/50.

Realistically, should we pursue this, how much salary should we realistically expect to have to eat, and what, if anything could we expect in return?


I don't think the Brewers would have to eat much salary. The advanced stats point to Cain having a very unlucky year and he should rebound.

Grisham is not a CF he should be playing LF. The best option after Cain in CF is Ray and that would be a drop off in both defense and offense. Depending on what the Brewers would be looking for they could get something like Contreras and another prospect for Cain from the Braves. If you go by the baseballtradevalues site something like Cain for Contreras and Toussaint works with the Braves.

Or something like this to the Rays:
Brewers get Baz Lowe and Schnell
Rays get Cain and $10m

If Cain were to be made available there would be a lot of teams inquiring about him. The Yankees make some sense here also as they will be clearing some payroll after this season though I think they will want to go with their younger players so they can sign one of Strasburg or Cole or both.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#3

Posted: August 14, 2019, 6:12 PM Post
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Yes, if we can trade him, and it helps the team, do it.

No hesitation.

Problem is, other teams can see his offensive regression as well as us, and at some point, due to his age, his defensive regression will kick in too.

Other teams know all this, so finding a buyer, imo, is going to be next to impossible.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#4

Posted: August 14, 2019, 6:14 PM Post
Posts: 12075
Yeah his value as a trade piece is rather limited. You might find a taker, but they'd get very little in return, and Brewers would have to eat plenty of salary.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#5

Posted: August 14, 2019, 6:45 PM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Yeah his value as a trade piece is rather limited. You might find a taker, but they'd get very little in return, and Brewers would have to eat plenty of salary.


Or take on another bad contract


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#6

Posted: August 14, 2019, 7:56 PM Post
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Another player where it wouldn’t of made sense to deal this past offseason but it was probably his peak value to do so. And his only chance to. Just gotta hope he can figure it out after maybe healing up this offseason. Otherwise it’s rather messy for the Brewers because they sunk a lot of money into what could be a pretty crappy older player.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#7

Posted: August 14, 2019, 10:21 PM Post
Posts: 1972
Par with other deals made when players with potential have a dip in performance.... Gennett (nothing), Santana, Aguilar.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#8

Posted: August 14, 2019, 10:39 PM Post
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It’s a tough spot to be in. His offense has plummeted, he’s been some unlucky, his defense is elite and he’s getting old. Moreover there are guys knocking for pt. I think that I’d rather keep him for next year and optimistically plan on improvement. He’s gone up and down some. That centerfield defense of his would leave a void. Injuries are bound to happen and Grisham is looking the part. It looks to me like Gamel could find himself struggling to stay up. Having mlb ready guys ready when injury comes is big it’s part of what our 2018 team strength was. Having Gamel as aaa depth would be great. Gamel still has an option right? My choice would be to keep Cain and try winning a championship. I still believe he helps towards that goal.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#9

Posted: August 14, 2019, 11:14 PM Post
Posts: 7994
I wouldn't trade Cain. We have plenty of payroll flexibility. We can open the season with the following:
CF- Cain, with Gamel, Yelich, and Grisham backing up
LF- Braun (60 starts)/Grisham
RF- Yelich, with occasional Grisham/Gamel starts
3b- ? Moose or Shaw. I'm kind of wondering if the Brewers will
SS- Arcia, Perez backing up
2b- Hiura
1b- Thames (102 starts)/Braun (60 starts)
C- Pina with Nottingham backing up

We don't have enough outfield depth in the minors to start dealing our starting caliber outfielders.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#10

Posted: August 15, 2019, 12:09 AM Post
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Per the StatCast leaderboards Cain has been the 16th most "unlucky" hitter this year.

He has an actual average/slugging of 248/358 when his "expected" results based on the quality of his batted balls is 283/401.

If he hit to his expected results he would have around a 100 wRC+ instead of his current 76 mark.

His defense is still top notch & his offense should be due for a rebound.

Hold.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#11

Posted: August 15, 2019, 1:17 AM Post
Posts: 1390
sveumrules said:
Per the StatCast leaderboards Cain has been the 16th most "unlucky" hitter this year.

He has an actual average/slugging of 248/358 when his "expected" results based on the quality of his batted balls is 283/401.

If he hit to his expected results he would have around a 100 wRC+ instead of his current 76 mark.

His defense is still top notch & his offense should be due for a rebound.

Hold.


Agreed. I'm also not someone who believes in "clubhouse presence" very much, but whatever value one can provide in that area, Cain certainly provides a great deal of it.

Last year was close to a career year for him, so the poor luck makes the drop off look that much worse, but I think he'll rebound next year. He's still a really impresive CF'er and his contract isn't that bad. 16,17,18 over the next 3 years.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#12

Posted: August 15, 2019, 5:50 AM Post
Posts: 2839
Trade this offseason. Grisham to CF next year. War in CF will increase with his vastly superior offense. 16 million can be invested wisely in another or other area’s if going for it. If re-tooling, pay down contract to acquire a quality prospect or two.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#13

Posted: August 15, 2019, 6:52 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Trade this offseason. Grisham to CF next year. War in CF will increase with his vastly superior offense. 16 million can be invested wisely in another or other area’s if going for it. If re-tooling, pay down contract to acquire a quality prospect or two.


As long as you can stomach the enormous defensive downgrade at the most important defensive OF position. I think an OF of Yelich in RF, Grisham in CF and Braun in LF would arguably be the worst defensive OF in baseball.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#14

Posted: August 15, 2019, 7:01 AM Post
Posts: 4418
For me its tough, because I think his offensive struggles are directly related to his right thumb problem...if it was as simple as resting it this offseason to guarantee it will be 100 percent next year, no way I trade him - but if this is now the new norm because it will continue giving him problems, then I'd be fine with dealing Cain. If it somehow provided some salary relief


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#15

Posted: August 15, 2019, 7:11 AM Post
Posts: 1002
sveumrules said:
Per the StatCast leaderboards Cain has been the 16th most "unlucky" hitter this year.

He has an actual average/slugging of 248/358 when his "expected" results based on the quality of his batted balls is 283/401.

If he hit to his expected results he would have around a 100 wRC+ instead of his current 76 mark.

His defense is still top notch & his offense should be due for a rebound.

Hold.


Pretty much exactly my take on it. I don't think we can expect his 2018 performance going forward, but being around a league-average hitter with his CF defense and value on the bases still makes him a well-above average regular.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#16

Posted: August 15, 2019, 7:14 AM Post
Posts: 11384
You guys are really sadly mistaken if you think we wouldn't have to eat a big chunk of money to dump Cain. All defense, no offensive players are not highly valued. Billy Hamilton got 1/$5.5mil last offseason from a garbage team that probably signed him hoping he would miraculously figure it out at 28 years old and to put a "flashy" player out there. Now Cain is definitely better than Hamilton, but really that is the same concept Cain is this year...defense, no offense.

I also don't think any team is going to put huge stock into him being "unlucky". People have been using that excuse for Braun three years now and he has not reverted back to All Star numbers like advanced stats say he should put up if he wasn't so unlucky.

Simply imagine Cain hitting the open market this winter, what do you think he is going to get? Mind you he is coming off a year in which he put up zero offense and his only value was defense. Keep in mind he is going to be 34(!) years old. First off he is getting a one year deal. No one is giving a multi year deal to a 34 year old OF who may provide nothing on offense. So what? 1/$12mil from a team figuring the defense gives him a high floor and he may rebound a bit offensively? If he gets a two year deal it probably isn't over $8-$10mil a year. Which in my opinion is a pretty bullish prediction.

We would have to at least eat the last year of that deal just to get rid of him, likely more to expect anything useful in return. Doing that still assumes the acquiring team values him at about 2/$30mil...not to sure about that. Might as well keep him and hope he rebounds.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#17

Posted: August 15, 2019, 7:29 AM Post
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Keep in mind y'all, that Cain has notably been playing through injuries this year. There's been ample articles on his ability to play through pain per his growth/advice from Tori Hunter. He's not the same hitter he was last year...some type of pain is lingering in him and affecting his ability to be at his best offiensively.

I would not trade him one bit. He's a prime candidate for a bounce back year offensively next year. If anything...we should be putting him on the 10 day IR so that he can have some time to heal up for the stretch run. Let TG get some run. Braun is playing spectacularly...nearing the .300 mark. We are going to need Cain for Sept!


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#18

Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:11 AM Post
Posts: 4954
Location: New Berlin, WI
sveumrules said:
Per the StatCast leaderboards Cain has been the 16th most "unlucky" hitter this year.

He has an actual average/slugging of 248/358 when his "expected" results based on the quality of his batted balls is 283/401.

If he hit to his expected results he would have around a 100 wRC+ instead of his current 76 mark.

His defense is still top notch & his offense should be due for a rebound.

Hold.


And from when I looked recently, I think he's actually been hitting the ball harder lately than he had earlier in the year. I would be his expected results since the break are better than the 283/401 numbers. I'm expecting him to finish really strong.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#19

Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:13 AM Post
Posts: 4532
Location: Madison, WI
Generally agree with brewtank. I think once healthy he'll be fine again next year, sure probably won't match 2018 but he'll be a solid hitter again. Sure, if someone were to take on the full salary you probably do it since you have a 550K replacement sitting here. But I don't think anyone will take that on. With injuries and and Braun playing some at 1B there should be plenty of ABs to go around. I'd probably advocate more liberal use of the DL next year instead of playing through so many injuries too, which would free up PT.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#20

Posted: August 15, 2019, 8:59 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Generally agree with brewtank. I think once healthy he'll be fine again next year, sure probably won't match 2018 but he'll be a solid hitter again. Sure, if someone were to take on the full salary you probably do it since you have a 550K replacement sitting here. But I don't think anyone will take that on. With injuries and and Braun playing some at 1B there should be plenty of ABs to go around. I'd probably advocate more liberal use of the DL next year instead of playing through so many injuries too, which would free up PT.

Rosters go to 26 next year, which might actually mean they will keep players with small injuries active because they have the extra roster spot.

Cain will be fine.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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