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Shop Lorenzo Cain?

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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 29, 2019, 1:27 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
tmwiese55 said:
With 3 years left this definitely has the possibility of being a pumpkin. Hated that 5th year from the beginning.

This should also be a lesson to the crowd that screams we have to spend big money, need to sign all these FAs and get our payroll up a big portion. We did it, and two years later we want out. Many big contracts signed in FA have albatross back ends. So you shouldn't spend just to spend in the short term, in our situation you have to make smart moves as clunkers will kill us.


Unfortunately, this is probably what landed him. So while it stinks to have, it is more than likely the difference between having him last year or not having him at all. And I do agree with your last paragraph. Many toss around numbers without ever thinking of the ripple effect. I've been a staunch supporter or Ryan Braun and I am still excited that he gets to basically be a Brewer for life but that contract is a bad one and everyone should know it. Unfortunately, sometimes you do have to go down those roads.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 29, 2019, 4:07 PM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
trwi7 said:
And we're still on the hook for the next 3 years at $51 million total for his age 34-36 seasons.


The Dodgers are lighting about $50 million on fire right now with Pollock, Hill, Bailey, part of Kemp, and all of their prospects like Olivera from a few years ago. Friedman is playing this smarter than the last regime, but they're going to have some other dead money soon.

The Astros hit the jackpot in building with young talent and Verlander turning out well, but they could be burning $70 million on Verlander/Greinke if either of those guys fall off a cliff.

Boston won a World Series with about $40 million lit on fire last year.

The Yankees have Ellsbury and Stanton could easily turn into an albatross if he doesn't actually play in games. Plus tons of other injured guys making $5+ million.

The Cubs are lighting endless amounts on fire.


I love how every team you mention is in a different stratosphere than us financially.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 29, 2019, 4:13 PM Post
Posts: 3060
trwi7 said:
bill hAll Star said:
trwi7 said:
And we're still on the hook for the next 3 years at $51 million total for his age 34-36 seasons.


The Dodgers are lighting about $50 million on fire right now with Pollock, Hill, Bailey, part of Kemp, and all of their prospects like Olivera from a few years ago. Friedman is playing this smarter than the last regime, but they're going to have some other dead money soon.

The Astros hit the jackpot in building with young talent and Verlander turning out well, but they could be burning $70 million on Verlander/Greinke if either of those guys fall off a cliff.

Boston won a World Series with about $40 million lit on fire last year.

The Yankees have Ellsbury and Stanton could easily turn into an albatross if he doesn't actually play in games. Plus tons of other injured guys making $5+ million.

The Cubs are lighting endless amounts on fire.


I love how every team you mention is in a different stratosphere than us financially.



[laughing] [laughing] [laughing] [laughing]


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 29, 2019, 7:13 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
When pro-rating 2019 out to a full season, Cain's average bWAR/FWAR over the last six years:

age 28 season = 4.65
age 29 season = 6.65
age 30 season = 2.6
age 31 season = 4.8
age 32 season = 6.3
age 33 season = 1.9

I think the decline is usually factored in at the age 31 season? But Cain went up 2.2 WAR in his age 31 season (missed a bunch of games in his age 30 season), and then instead of going down in his age 32 season, he actually went up another 1.5 WAR.

Rule of thumb is to decrease by 0.5 WAR per season once a player reaches a certain age. But considering his track record, I very much doubt that the average team would start at the low number of 1.9 WAR and start subtracting from that number. Cain's track record is too good for that IMO.

And as far as measuring a player's decline, wouldn't defense factor into making that judgment as well? Cain was a +20 DRS in 2018, so far is a +18 in 2019 and that number is not inning adjusted. With 29 games still left, Cain's could hit the exact same number he had last year. UZR/150 was 11.9 last year, currently 10.5 this year. A slight dip but certainly nothing that would throw up any red flags.

I look at all the numbers, and would suspect that for every GM that would think Cain is over the hill, there would be just as many (and maybe a few more) that would see Cain as just having a bad year offensively and would be a very solid bet to return to a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. And 17 million per year is not a crazy number at all for a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. I would absolutely, 100% agree that the final year is a concern, but IMO that's where the Brewers could throw in some money and the other team could find an appropriately valued prospect that they could live without.

The other thing that factors in is that Cain seems to be pretty well respected around the league and displays some leadership qualities. There is nothing about his makeup that would scare other teams away from wanting him to be a member of their organization.

I'll stand by my assessment from a few pages back, I think that Cain would have slight positive surplus value if put on the market. But I don't think that matters because I don't think Stearns will look to move him. Brewers have had severe run prevention problems this year, and trading away a guy that can play centerfield like Cain just makes that even worse.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 30, 2019, 6:01 AM Post
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There is no rule of thumb, there is no specific age a player declines at, and their is no specific decline pace. Every player is different and highly unpredictable. You can’t just use those averages on a player as so many factors can effect it. In reality I don’t think many players decline like that. Cain could bounce back and have a stellar year or he could literally be toast. There is no way to know that. He is one leg injury from his speed and defense being shattered.

There just is no way to even guess what Cain will do next year. And while you can be optimistic unlikepy amy team would spend $50mil the next three years to find out if a 34 year old CFer can rebound.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 30, 2019, 6:04 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
There is no rule of thumb


Sorry, this completely wrong. There are plenty of kinesiological studies out there that show the physical peak years of the male human athlete. Yep, Cain could be different, but saying there isn't a typical time of athletic peak and anticipated timeframe of decline isn't based in any sort of scientific fact.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 30, 2019, 6:13 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
MrTPlush said:
There is no rule of thumb


Sorry, this completely wrong. There are plenty of kinesiological studies out there that show the physical peak years of the male human athlete. Yep, Cain could be different, but saying there isn't a typical time of athletic peak and anticipated timeframe of decline isn't based in any sort of scientific fact.


I did mention this, not sure if you saw after or before I stuck it in.

Go look at any player and they rarely follow such averages...players are too unique individually. If they weren’t Cain would have been a bad signing from day one as he was already in his 32 season. When I say there is no rule of thumb I’m not saying there aren’t averages, but assuming a player will follow those on an individual basis should no be so fluid.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 30, 2019, 7:36 AM Post
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trwi7 said:
bill hAll Star said:
trwi7 said:
And we're still on the hook for the next 3 years at $51 million total for his age 34-36 seasons.


The Dodgers are lighting about $50 million on fire right now with Pollock, Hill, Bailey, part of Kemp, and all of their prospects like Olivera from a few years ago. Friedman is playing this smarter than the last regime, but they're going to have some other dead money soon.

The Astros hit the jackpot in building with young talent and Verlander turning out well, but they could be burning $70 million on Verlander/Greinke if either of those guys fall off a cliff.

Boston won a World Series with about $40 million lit on fire last year.

The Yankees have Ellsbury and Stanton could easily turn into an albatross if he doesn't actually play in games. Plus tons of other injured guys making $5+ million.

The Cubs are lighting endless amounts on fire.


I love how every team you mention is in a different stratosphere than us financially.


The point was to mention contending teams. A lot of small market teams have just as bad of albatross deals riding out.

If you can't do the math and realize that $50 million lit on fire in Los Angeles or New York is comparable to $25 million lit on fire in Milwaukee (proportions!), then I'm not sure...go ahead and keep thinking you've dunked on me.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 30, 2019, 8:55 AM Post
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The general point here is every team has their core of 15-20 players built from rookie, arby, cheap, and underpriced contracts at $70 million, let's say.

Some teams like the Marlins just stop there as they are tanking or just want to be cheap. That means the Yankees have $130 million more to spend and if the Brewers are contending, they have $60 million to spend that year. Throw on garbage from the past and it's more like the Yankees have $80 million while the Brewers have $40.

There is a limited pool of players to sign or maybe absorb via trade. If every team like the Brewers said, "well, I don't want that to turn into a bad contract!" you'd have Cain going for 3 years, $15 million and everyone would be freaking out that the Yankees just got Cain basically for free. So instead, smart teams bid knowing that they will have to pay market value (or maybe over market value) for said player. They know the back end has risk of being a dumpster fire. Granted, teams are doing a little bit of what I suggested of not wanting to sign the bad contract with the recent offseason/CBA stuff, but it still is not absurd enough that great players are going for free.

That's what the Brewers did with Cain. If you told me Cain would put this season up again for the next 3, I'd consider cutting bait if this theoretical option existed...but I think everyone is forgetting part 2. The Brewers have Christian Yelich and they're hoping for a title. So what as fans do we expect the savings from Cain? Well, you'd have to compete in that exact same market that you got Cain from! So you're going to have to do the same thing most likely to add value from this limited player pool...and you're going to have to replace Cain on top of it all.

So it is just weird to see a lot of Brewer fans saying, "look at me, woke baseball fan...I would like to rid myself of the player that is delivering less value than what he's being paid" when they really don't acknowledge that if that came to fruition, the next step is an extra yacht for Attanasio or just going right back out and signing just as crappy of a contract.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 30, 2019, 1:52 PM Post
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If 1 WAR is worth 8 million dollars (which I believe is the consensus from analytics folks) Cain was a 6.9 WAR player in 2019 (according to baseball reference) which at 8 million dollars per WAR comes out to 55 million dollars of value. This year Cain has a WAR of 2.1 (again at 8 million per WAR) comes out to 16.8 million in value.

From that metric why would anyone shop Cain? He has delivered 72 million dollars in value while being paid 29 million dollars. While they wished Cain would have hit more this year, I'm sure the front office is fine Cain. Even in a decline he could remain a 2.0 WAR player just based on his defense. The only real downside to Cain's contract is the risk of injury and paying him to sit on the DL, and nobody can predict when injuries will strike.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 30, 2019, 7:15 PM Post
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Jopal78! said:
From that metric why would anyone shop Cain? He has delivered 72 million dollars in value while being paid 29 million dollars.


Because being underpaid thus far in his contract doesn't mean that a team like the Brewers shouldn't try to avoid the inverse going forward? We won the first two years. Hooray!


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 31, 2019, 5:58 AM Post
Posts: 3060
JosephC said:
When pro-rating 2019 out to a full season, Cain's average bWAR/FWAR over the last six years:

age 28 season = 4.65
age 29 season = 6.65
age 30 season = 2.6
age 31 season = 4.8
age 32 season = 6.3
age 33 season = 1.9

I think the decline is usually factored in at the age 31 season? But Cain went up 2.2 WAR in his age 31 season (missed a bunch of games in his age 30 season), and then instead of going down in his age 32 season, he actually went up another 1.5 WAR.

Rule of thumb is to decrease by 0.5 WAR per season once a player reaches a certain age. But considering his track record, I very much doubt that the average team would start at the low number of 1.9 WAR and start subtracting from that number. Cain's track record is too good for that IMO.

And as far as measuring a player's decline, wouldn't defense factor into making that judgment as well? Cain was a +20 DRS in 2018, so far is a +18 in 2019 and that number is not inning adjusted. With 29 games still left, Cain's could hit the exact same number he had last year. UZR/150 was 11.9 last year, currently 10.5 this year. A slight dip but certainly nothing that would throw up any red flags.

I look at all the numbers, and would suspect that for every GM that would think Cain is over the hill, there would be just as many (and maybe a few more) that would see Cain as just having a bad year offensively and would be a very solid bet to return to a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. And 17 million per year is not a crazy number at all for a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. I would absolutely, 100% agree that the final year is a concern, but IMO that's where the Brewers could throw in some money and the other team could find an appropriately valued prospect that they could live without.

The other thing that factors in is that Cain seems to be pretty well respected around the league and displays some leadership qualities. There is nothing about his makeup that would scare other teams away from wanting him to be a member of their organization.

I'll stand by my assessment from a few pages back, I think that Cain would have slight positive surplus value if put on the market. But I don't think that matters because I don't think Stearns will look to move him. Brewers have had severe run prevention problems this year, and trading away a guy that can play centerfield like Cain just makes that even worse.


Well if your right in your calculations, this is a no-brainer decision to trade. Even if your off by let’s say 6-10 million, it still NEEDS to be done. Not sure about FA, but there are in-house or trade options available. The zero Cain CF regression, and 41-51 million in savings make it a easy decision. At a minimum if this team wants to contend next year, quite the changes are necessary. 14-17 million next year can help in better ways.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 31, 2019, 6:07 AM Post
Posts: 3060
bill hAll Star said:
The general point here is every team has their core of 15-20 players built from rookie, arby, cheap, and underpriced contracts at $70 million, let's say.

Some teams like the Marlins just stop there as they are tanking or just want to be cheap. That means the Yankees have $130 million more to spend and if the Brewers are contending, they have $60 million to spend that year. Throw on garbage from the past and it's more like the Yankees have $80 million while the Brewers have $40.

There is a limited pool of players to sign or maybe absorb via trade. If every team like the Brewers said, "well, I don't want that to turn into a bad contract!" you'd have Cain going for 3 years, $15 million and everyone would be freaking out that the Yankees just got Cain basically for free. So instead, smart teams bid knowing that they will have to pay market value (or maybe over market value) for said player. They know the back end has risk of being a dumpster fire. Granted, teams are doing a little bit of what I suggested of not wanting to sign the bad contract with the recent offseason/CBA stuff, but it still is not absurd enough that great players are going for free.

That's what the Brewers did with Cain. If you told me Cain would put this season up again for the next 3, I'd consider cutting bait if this theoretical option existed...but I think everyone is forgetting part 2. The Brewers have Christian Yelich and they're hoping for a title. So what as fans do we expect the savings from Cain? Well, you'd have to compete in that exact same market that you got Cain from! So you're going to have to do the same thing most likely to add value from this limited player pool...and you're going to have to replace Cain on top of it all.

So it is just weird to see a lot of Brewer fans saying, "look at me, woke baseball fan...I would like to rid myself of the player that is delivering less value than what he's being paid" when they really don't acknowledge that if that came to fruition, the next step is an extra yacht for Attanasio or just going right back out and signing just as crappy of a contract.


I would argue the Yankees at the drop of a dime could send 170 million easily, right up to the tax threshold, and in a certain year blow past the tax at say 250-260 million, but re-setting the following year. So that would give them an extra 100 million to play with, at least for one year. Same with all the largest markets.

Different stratosphere indeed.


Last edited by Brew crew 92 on August 31, 2019, 6:16 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 31, 2019, 6:11 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
JosephC said:
When pro-rating 2019 out to a full season, Cain's average bWAR/FWAR over the last six years:

age 28 season = 4.65
age 29 season = 6.65
age 30 season = 2.6
age 31 season = 4.8
age 32 season = 6.3
age 33 season = 1.9

I think the decline is usually factored in at the age 31 season? But Cain went up 2.2 WAR in his age 31 season (missed a bunch of games in his age 30 season), and then instead of going down in his age 32 season, he actually went up another 1.5 WAR.

Rule of thumb is to decrease by 0.5 WAR per season once a player reaches a certain age. But considering his track record, I very much doubt that the average team would start at the low number of 1.9 WAR and start subtracting from that number. Cain's track record is too good for that IMO.

And as far as measuring a player's decline, wouldn't defense factor into making that judgment as well? Cain was a +20 DRS in 2018, so far is a +18 in 2019 and that number is not inning adjusted. With 29 games still left, Cain's could hit the exact same number he had last year. UZR/150 was 11.9 last year, currently 10.5 this year. A slight dip but certainly nothing that would throw up any red flags.

I look at all the numbers, and would suspect that for every GM that would think Cain is over the hill, there would be just as many (and maybe a few more) that would see Cain as just having a bad year offensively and would be a very solid bet to return to a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. And 17 million per year is not a crazy number at all for a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. I would absolutely, 100% agree that the final year is a concern, but IMO that's where the Brewers could throw in some money and the other team could find an appropriately valued prospect that they could live without.

The other thing that factors in is that Cain seems to be pretty well respected around the league and displays some leadership qualities. There is nothing about his makeup that would scare other teams away from wanting him to be a member of their organization.

I'll stand by my assessment from a few pages back, I think that Cain would have slight positive surplus value if put on the market. But I don't think that matters because I don't think Stearns will look to move him. Brewers have had severe run prevention problems this year, and trading away a guy that can play centerfield like Cain just makes that even worse.


Well if your right in your calculations, this is a no-brainer decision to trade. Even if your off by let’s say 6-10 million, it still NEEDS to be done. Not sure about FA, but there are in-house or trade options available. The zero Cain CF regression, and 41-51 million in savings make it a easy decision. At a minimum if this team wants to contend next year, quite the changes are necessary. 14-17 million next year can help in better ways.


You say this as fact, but you are literally the ONLY person saying it. Joseph literally says in his post that while he believes Cain may have a smidgen of surplus value, but that it doesn't matter because he isn't going anywhere, and instead you glob onto the value thing to drive home the idea that the Brewers NEED to do this? Like it's some sort of foregone conclusion? Wow ... that's all I have to say. Wow.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 31, 2019, 7:31 AM Post
Posts: 3060
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
JosephC said:
When pro-rating 2019 out to a full season, Cain's average bWAR/FWAR over the last six years:

age 28 season = 4.65
age 29 season = 6.65
age 30 season = 2.6
age 31 season = 4.8
age 32 season = 6.3
age 33 season = 1.9

I think the decline is usually factored in at the age 31 season? But Cain went up 2.2 WAR in his age 31 season (missed a bunch of games in his age 30 season), and then instead of going down in his age 32 season, he actually went up another 1.5 WAR.

Rule of thumb is to decrease by 0.5 WAR per season once a player reaches a certain age. But considering his track record, I very much doubt that the average team would start at the low number of 1.9 WAR and start subtracting from that number. Cain's track record is too good for that IMO.

And as far as measuring a player's decline, wouldn't defense factor into making that judgment as well? Cain was a +20 DRS in 2018, so far is a +18 in 2019 and that number is not inning adjusted. With 29 games still left, Cain's could hit the exact same number he had last year. UZR/150 was 11.9 last year, currently 10.5 this year. A slight dip but certainly nothing that would throw up any red flags.

I look at all the numbers, and would suspect that for every GM that would think Cain is over the hill, there would be just as many (and maybe a few more) that would see Cain as just having a bad year offensively and would be a very solid bet to return to a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. And 17 million per year is not a crazy number at all for a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. I would absolutely, 100% agree that the final year is a concern, but IMO that's where the Brewers could throw in some money and the other team could find an appropriately valued prospect that they could live without.

The other thing that factors in is that Cain seems to be pretty well respected around the league and displays some leadership qualities. There is nothing about his makeup that would scare other teams away from wanting him to be a member of their organization.

I'll stand by my assessment from a few pages back, I think that Cain would have slight positive surplus value if put on the market. But I don't think that matters because I don't think Stearns will look to move him. Brewers have had severe run prevention problems this year, and trading away a guy that can play centerfield like Cain just makes that even worse.


Well if your right in your calculations, this is a no-brainer decision to trade. Even if your off by let’s say 6-10 million, it still NEEDS to be done. Not sure about FA, but there are in-house or trade options available. The zero Cain CF regression, and 41-51 million in savings make it a easy decision. At a minimum if this team wants to contend next year, quite the changes are necessary. 14-17 million next year can help in better ways.


You say this as fact, but you are literally the ONLY person saying it. Joseph literally says in his post that while he believes Cain may have a smidgen of surplus value, but that it doesn't matter because he isn't going anywhere, and instead you glob onto the value thing to drive home the idea that the Brewers NEED to do this? Like it's some sort of foregone conclusion? Wow ... that's all I have to say. Wow.


First off, I’m not the only one that wants rid of Cain. Kinda weird if you read back thru this thread how you’d come to that conclusion.

Secondly, Joseph only states he doesn’t think Stearns will trade because of Cain’s superior run prevention. That’s his opinion. Quite a few posters have said if we can trade Cain without eating much or any $, they WOULD be all for getting that contract off the books.

IF IF IF, we could rid ourselves of this contract without eating any $, you wouldn’t do it?


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 31, 2019, 7:58 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
First off, I’m not the only one that wants rid of Cain. Kinda weird if you read back thru this thread how you’d come to that conclusion.

Secondly, Joseph only states he doesn’t think Stearns will trade because of Cain’s superior run prevention. That’s his opinion. Quite a few posters have said if we can trade Cain without eating much or any $, they WOULD be all for getting that contract off the books.

IF IF IF, we could rid ourselves of this contract without eating any $, you wouldn’t do it?


Everything you post is your opinion. And most of it is tinfoil hat-level odd. So bashing another poster who is backing up his opinion is odd coming from you.

The only reason they signed Cain to begin with is that they didn't have a viable CF alternative. That was roughly 18 months ago. So no, I would not rid ourselves of Cain's contract. He may be a bit overpaid compared to his production moving forward, but I see this team as a contender moving forward, and I don't think you are going to find a better option out there without paying out the nose in either money or prospects for a CF that will be Cain's equal, and I'm not interested in a step down at that spot. So not only do I think that they would not be able to rid themselves of Cain's contract without taking a major hit, I don't think they should.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: August 31, 2019, 8:13 AM Post
Posts: 3060
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
First off, I’m not the only one that wants rid of Cain. Kinda weird if you read back thru this thread how you’d come to that conclusion.

Secondly, Joseph only states he doesn’t think Stearns will trade because of Cain’s superior run prevention. That’s his opinion. Quite a few posters have said if we can trade Cain without eating much or any $, they WOULD be all for getting that contract off the books.

IF IF IF, we could rid ourselves of this contract without eating any $, you wouldn’t do it?


Everything you post is your opinion. And most of it is tinfoil hat-level odd. So bashing another poster who is backing up his opinion is odd coming from you.

The only reason they signed Cain to begin with is that they didn't have a viable CF alternative. That was roughly 18 months ago. So no, I would not rid ourselves of Cain's contract. He may be a bit overpaid compared to his production moving forward, but I see this team as a contender moving forward, and I don't think you are going to find a better option out there without paying out the nose in either money or prospects for a CF that will be Cain's equal, and I'm not interested in a step down at that spot. So not only do I think that they would not be able to rid themselves of Cain's contract without taking a major hit, I don't think they should.


Ha, must admit, tinfoil hat-level odd description is creatively funny. At least you didn’t use the word ALL, instead of most, so there’s that.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 01, 2019, 7:32 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Jopal78! said:
From that metric why would anyone shop Cain? He has delivered 72 million dollars in value while being paid 29 million dollars.


Because being underpaid thus far in his contract doesn't mean that a team like the Brewers shouldn't try to avoid the inverse going forward? We won the first two years. Hooray!


The Brewers don’t pay their own players to play against them with a different club. Jeromy Burnitz is the last player I can recall where they included cash to trade away his contract. That was under a different ownership group.

Even shopping Cain with his contract is going to be a non-starter. So given the facts the Brewers don’t include cash to trade players, and nobody is taking that contract at full price. Cain isn’t going anywhere.

The point of my earlier post, is Cain can fall off a cliff offensively and still put up a 2.0 WAR based on defensive prowess the next three years and the Brewers would have gotten great value from Cain for their money. Even if his hitting skills in fact go into age related decline, it would be atypical if his ability at running, catching and throwing also diminished


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 01, 2019, 9:35 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
The Brewers don’t pay their own players to play against them with a different club. Jeromy Burnitz is the last player I can recall where they included cash to trade away his contract. That was under a different ownership group.



That's a bit of semantics, though. They've had no problems paying Suppan, Wolf, etc. to not play for them via release. Heck, they're still paying Aramas Ramirez and Matt Garza (or were until recently). I don't think you can assume this to be a hard-line stance when it's more likely a function of them not having a lot of high-priced contracts for players that may have some value to actually move.

Jopal78! said:
Even shopping Cain with his contract is going to be a non-starter. So given the facts the Brewers don’t include cash to trade players, and nobody is taking that contract at full price. Cain isn’t going anywhere.

The point of my earlier post, is Cain can fall off a cliff offensively and still put up a 2.0 WAR based on defensive prowess the next three years and the Brewers would have gotten great value from Cain for their money. Even if his hitting skills in fact go into age related decline, it would be atypical if his ability at running, catching and throwing also diminished


You realize that this is a bit double-sided, right? No one would take that contract, but he's great value over the next three years if he plays defense? I simply, IMO of course, can't believe both to be simultaneously correct.

And again, I disagree with the last sentence. The speed will fade, which will cause a reduction in his range. That's not atypical, that's physiologically real. Scientific studies have also shown a linear decline in throwing function due to aging as well.

I'll re-emphasize my stance on this- I think Cain will have value to the 2020 Brewers. I question whether he will to the 2021 and 2022 Brewers. And for that reason, I think you evaluate the possibility of dealing him if someone showed legit interest. Beyond that, for 2020, they're probably a better team with him on it.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 01, 2019, 10:19 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
You realize that this is a bit double-sided, right? No one would take that contract, but he's great value over the next three years if he plays defense? I simply, IMO of course, can't believe both to be simultaneously correct.

I read it that Jopal was concluding the "Brewers would have gotten great value from Cain for their money" over the 5 year contract as he is clearly pointing out the defense he brings would likely be equivalent to his salary the next 3 years. While the overall value he delivered over 5 years would still be value for the Brewers, there isn't any added value projected for the next 3 years unless this years offense is an outlier from his aging curve. Teams aren't going to take on a contract that isn't clearly going to give them some value, they can go to the FA market and sign a market value contract without giving up any prospect.

PeaveyFury said:
And again, I disagree with the last sentence. The speed will fade, which will cause a reduction in his range. That's not atypical, that's physiologically real. Scientific studies have also shown a linear decline in throwing function due to aging as well.

And from those studies it's clear the slope of the decline is different for each individual. Hence, each person will be different in their decline and at this point nobody can predict what an individuals decline will look like. I believe JosephC pointed out that Cain's defense this year is almost identical to last year so their ain't no slope right now. He may start declining soon, but his defense could be elite for another 1-2 years and then begin to decline. Not enough data to know, but being an optimist (like Jopal), we tend to think positively about Brewers players.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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