LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  [ 153 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Shop Lorenzo Cain?

Author Message
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 01, 2019, 10:38 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 8177
xisxisxis said:
I read it that Jopal was concluding the "Brewers would have gotten great value from Cain for their money" over the 5 year contract as he is clearly pointing out the defense he brings would likely be equivalent to his salary the next 3 years. While the overall value he delivered over 5 years would still be value for the Brewers, there isn't any added value projected for the next 3 years unless this years offense is an outlier from his aging curve.


Fair enough. I think the danger, though, is that this viewpoint is reliant on the idea that 1) Cain continues to provide the elite defense for another 1-2 years, and that 2)His offense doesn't decline to the point that it's subtracting from value. So far this year his offense has been flat to slightly positive, making him a very useful player if you play his level of defense. If he maintains, he's right at the 2 WAR= $16 million in salary level, which is perfectly acceptable. If that turns negative, however, it's obviously a different story.

xisxisxis said:
I believe JosephC pointed out that Cain's defense this year is almost identical to last year so their ain't no slope right now. He may start declining soon, but his defense could be elite for another 1-2 years and then begin to decline. Not enough data to know, but being an optimist (like Jopal), we tend to think positively about Brewers players.


I just worry that he'll cliff at some point, which obviously we won't know if it'll happen or not until it does or doesn't. I guess I've just seen too many Brewer signings implode in the last year to be comfortable here. The Brewers usually have to throw that extra year on to get the deal done, and I think it has rarely worked out well historically.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 01, 2019, 4:55 PM Post
Posts: 11867
Claiming Cain still has value if his defense is 2 WAR seems downright wrong. Zero offense and all defense players do not get paid $15mil+ a year. It is just not accurate to say we are still getting our money’s worth at that point. He needs to be average on offense for the defense to be meaningful.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 03, 2019, 8:57 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2593
adambr2 said:
Last season, Cain was one of the more valuable players in the league. Fast forward to a season later, and the remaining 3 years and 50ish million on his contract looks pretty daunting.

The good news is, his defense is still elite to the tune of being a 1.8 WAR player so far despite the poor season by his standards.

My question is, should we be shopping Cain in the offseason? With Grisham appearing to emerge, it would eliminate any issue trying to find him playing time next season. It would also open up salary to pursue other needs in the offseason. Cain still has enough value and is coming off a strong enough 2018 where a team out there might like to take a shot for 3/50.

Realistically, should we pursue this, how much salary should we realistically expect to have to eat, and what, if anything could we expect in return?


I'd just keep both unless the Brewers are dead set on some expensive piece to add in 2020 and we're right up against Attanasio's top budget. If Cain falls off a cliff and Grisham is truly good, then go to Grisham for good and let Cain be a 2 year/$35 million backup for 2 years in 21-22.

I don't think the odds of Grisham emerging to a legitimate starter and Cain falling off the cliff both happening are that likely.

In 2021, Cain's salary should not impede much even if he's useless. I wouldn't get rid of him just to get rid of him and run to the greener grass of Grisham.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 03, 2019, 9:11 AM Post
Posts: 21
Way too early to think about Grisham this way. So far he is Gamel.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 03, 2019, 9:25 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 9172
BillMilton said:
Way too early to think about Grisham this way. So far he is Gamel.


He's also not a CF. I really wish people would stop assuming that Grisham and Cain are interchangeable defensively. They are not.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 03, 2019, 9:45 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2593
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
BillMilton said:
Way too early to think about Grisham this way. So far he is Gamel.


He's also not a CF. I really wish people would stop assuming that Grisham and Cain are interchangeable defensively. They are not.


But that doesn't matter...many fans would be happy with a $120 million payroll and a LF playing CF instead of $135 million payroll with a 2 WAR CF getting paid $17 million in CF.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 03, 2019, 9:53 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 13479
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Right now, I'm not sure Grisham is a major leaguer let alone a starting CF. He has a lot to prove still.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 03, 2019, 10:28 AM Post
Posts: 3060
BillMilton said:
Way too early to think about Grisham this way. So far he is Gamel.


He’s slumping, that’s all. He’s also young and needs to play every day, which he should be doing. Even as bad as he’s been lately, he’s working the count, occasionally getting on via the bb. He’ll hit, if he plays.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 03, 2019, 10:42 AM Post
Posts: 701
Location: Washburn, WI
Brew crew 92 said:
BillMilton said:
Way too early to think about Grisham this way. So far he is Gamel.


He’s slumping, that’s all. He’s also young and needs to play every day, which he should be doing. Even as bad as he’s been lately, he’s working the count, occasionally getting on via the bb. He’ll hit, if he plays.


He could be really tired though... He’s been playing everyday in the minors and now is expected to keep playing when he has no energy. That’s why he’s playing poorly, working counts, and taking walks because he’s saving energy by not swinging the bat.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 03, 2019, 11:07 AM Post
Posts: 3060
RollieTime said:
Brew crew 92 said:
BillMilton said:
Way too early to think about Grisham this way. So far he is Gamel.


He’s slumping, that’s all. He’s also young and needs to play every day, which he should be doing. Even as bad as he’s been lately, he’s working the count, occasionally getting on via the bb. He’ll hit, if he plays.


He could be really tired though... He’s been playing everyday in the minors and now is expected to keep playing when he has no energy. That’s why he’s playing poorly, working counts, and taking walks because he’s saving energy by not swinging the bat.


Good one.
Although, I would argue C the most games in baseball and then when not C playing 1B, should wear on a player to the point of said player getting a heavy bat, you know, 19 homers first 2 1/2 months, 3 since, type of heavy bat. But, no fear, Freitas is here.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 03, 2019, 11:10 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 8177
This is a thread about Cain, as a reminder. Grisham discussion (as a replacement) has a place, but let's not let this go off the rails and make this another thread about Freitas.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 03, 2019, 12:47 PM Post
Posts: 434
Brew crew 92 said:
BillMilton said:
Way too early to think about Grisham this way. So far he is Gamel.


He’s slumping, that’s all. He’s also young and needs to play every day, which he should be doing. Even as bad as he’s been lately, he’s working the count, occasionally getting on via the bb. He’ll hit, if he plays.


He's not slumping until he proves he can actually hit major lg. pitching. A slump would mean he has hit at a high level and now is going through a tough time. So far he has shown only weak results, but in only 90 ABs so the jury is still out.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
Posted: September 08, 2019, 10:00 AM Post
Posts: 6
Just saw this article from MLB.com about 2019's unluckiest hitters. Cain has the highest % of outs on hard contact in MLB in 2019, and is tied for the second-highest gap between wxOBA and wOBA.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-s-unluckiest-hitters-in-2019

Yes, Cain will be another year older next year, but I think we can expect at least somewhat of a bounce-back season from him.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  [ 153 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test