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Shop Lorenzo Cain?

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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#41

Posted: August 20, 2019, 1:52 PM Post
Posts: 3060
If I’m David Stearns, I don’t take the chance of another horrible offensive season from Cain. He’s past prime, defensively he will get worse, Tyrone Taylor can probably provide close to the same offense if healthy, with pretty good defense. 17 million can be spent in a better area of need. And if we re-tool > saved and used at a more opportune time.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#42

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:07 PM Post
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Have we banned this guy yet?


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#43

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:10 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
MrTPlush said:
Well going by WAR money values Mike Trout should be paid $65mil or so and Heran Perez was worth almost $30mil the last three years.

Yah, that sounds kinda silly doesn't it? WAR money values just seem like a way to rationalize an overpaid veteran.


Right, if we went by these WAR values everyone would have a $200+ million payroll.


I'm guessing that it factors in the idea that some star players are still making $500k or $3 million on rookie deal or arbitration, no?

Regardless, I'd like to ship away the overpriced veteran so that we can have some extra cash on hand to...sign another overpriced veteran.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#44

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:11 PM Post
Posts: 800
Brew crew 92 said:
If I’m David Stearns, I don’t take the chance of another horrible offensive season from Cain. He’s past prime, defensively he will get worse, Tyrone Taylor can probably provide close to the same offense if healthy, with pretty good defense. 17 million can be spent in a better area of need. And if we re-tool > saved and used at a more opportune time.


Come on. Tyrone Taylor?

[laughing]


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#45

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:19 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
If I’m David Stearns, I don’t take the chance of another horrible offensive season from Cain. He’s past prime, defensively he will get worse, Tyrone Taylor can probably provide close to the same offense if healthy, with pretty good defense. 17 million can be spent in a better area of need. And if we re-tool > saved and used at a more opportune time.


This is the hottest of your "what have you done for me lately" hot takes. IMO the Brewers are not in the situation of having to cut costs.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#46

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:29 PM Post
Posts: 12928
SoCalBrewfan said:
There's plenty of evidence that teams approach player valuation with something similar to a WAR and $/win calculation. (At least those with analytic frames, but that seems like almost all teams these days.) You might not buy it or understand it, but it really doesn't matter...it's how team management thinks.


Well, obviously, they have to. They don't just toss dollar amounts into a BINGO machine and pick one out.

But as another poster said the $8mil WAR that is commonly used is ridiculous. Not to mention another dozen odd things go into valuing a player that you just simply can't quantify with stats. Merchandise sales they will bring in, value of them after they retire if a major contract. Some teams value certain things over other things.

I mean the amount of guys who go in and get what WAR says they should is a rarity. It would be hard to really figure out what players actually seem to get per WAR...because sometimes guys get big contracts for consistency, versatility, just came off a huge year, among other things where taking his previous 3 year average wouldn't exactly be useful and predictive WAR formulas are so flawed you can't really use that either.

Like I said before going off WAR Perez has been a $10mil a year player recently. The only person on this planet who thinks Perez is that valuable is Clancy (seriously, he once proposed a contract with similar yearly rates). If I was throwing darts at a wall I would say the actual value for 1 WAR is probably in the neighborhood of $4mil-$5mil (in a very general sense). That seems to be more in line with what guys achieve. That seems like a sweet spot for your typical player in the 2-3 WAR range. 4-5 WAR players probably overshoot that and <2 WAR players probably undershoot that a bit.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#47

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:38 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
SoCalBrewfan said:
There's plenty of evidence that teams approach player valuation with something similar to a WAR and $/win calculation. (At least those with analytic frames, but that seems like almost all teams these days.) You might not buy it or understand it, but it really doesn't matter...it's how team management thinks.


Well, obviously, they have to. They don't just toss dollar amounts into a BINGO machine and pick one out.

But as another poster said the $8mil WAR that is commonly used is ridiculous. Not to mention another dozen odd things go into valuing a player that you just simply can't quantify with stats. Merchandise sales they will bring in, value of them after they retire if a major contract. Some teams value certain things over other things.

I mean the amount of guys who go in and get what WAR says they should is a rarity. It would be hard to really figure out what players actually seem to get per WAR...because sometimes guys get big contracts for consistency, versatility, just came off a huge year, among other things where taking his previous 3 year average wouldn't exactly be useful and predictive WAR formulas are so flawed you can't really use that either.

Like I said before going off WAR Perez has been a $10mil a year player recently. The only person on this planet who thinks Perez is that valuable is Clancy (seriously, he once proposed a contract with similar yearly rates). If I was throwing darts at a wall I would say the actual value for 1 WAR is probably in the neighborhood of $4mil-$5mil (in a very general sense). That seems to be more in line with what guys achieve. That seems like a sweet spot for your typical player in the 2-3 WAR range. 4-5 WAR players probably overshoot that and <2 WAR players probably undershoot that a bit.


You're embellishing the Perez thing a bit. He was a 1.1 WAR guy in 2016 when he stole 34 bases and hit 13 homers in 3/4 of a season all while playing decent defense around the field. That might actually be worth $8m.

The next 2 years he was .6 WAR. Is it insane that a decent utility guy makes $4.5 million? That's a bit high but not out of line.

This year he was -.2 WAR.

So in Hernan's 4 years with the Brewers he's been "worth" 4 years, $16 million and he actually had one "good" year even if it was filled with empty stats.

Again, I think this $8 million per WAR factors in that an average team probably already has 10 WAR worth of players across 4-5 guys at a cost of $10 million total that are on rookie deals/early arby.


Last edited by bill hAll Star on August 20, 2019, 2:41 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#48

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:40 PM Post
Posts: 3060
brooks_quichenick said:
Brew crew 92 said:
If I’m David Stearns, I don’t take the chance of another horrible offensive season from Cain. He’s past prime, defensively he will get worse, Tyrone Taylor can probably provide close to the same offense if healthy, with pretty good defense. 17 million can be spent in a better area of need. And if we re-tool > saved and used at a more opportune time.


Come on. Tyrone Taylor?

[laughing]


If healthy, yes.
Another high draft pick that last year when healthy put up his best year. High hopes going into this year, and like Trent Grisham looked great in ST. Then has been injured a lot of this year. Could be a sleeper, and if healthy could better Cain offensively.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#49

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:43 PM Post
Posts: 12928
brooks_quichenick said:
Brew crew 92 said:
If I’m David Stearns, I don’t take the chance of another horrible offensive season from Cain. He’s past prime, defensively he will get worse, Tyrone Taylor can probably provide close to the same offense if healthy, with pretty good defense. 17 million can be spent in a better area of need. And if we re-tool > saved and used at a more opportune time.


Come on. Tyrone Taylor?

[laughing]


I mean Lorenzo Cain is notably below a .700 OPS...speaking just offensively that is pretty easy to outdo. So if you were really confident Cain is over the hill not coming back replacing him offensively would be a job a blind squirrel could accomplish.

Now if we truly believe Lorenzo Cain is a 2 WAR player solely on defense this year then that is a bit harder to replace. Which personally once you get that bad on offense I am not sure a 2 WAR blackhole is as good as a 2 WAR player who gets half that from both offense/defense. Not sure my total opinion on that, but I do start to question the value of a defense only player when comparing to an average at everything player.


Last edited by MrTPlush on August 20, 2019, 2:49 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#50

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:46 PM Post
Posts: 12928
bill hAll Star said:
You're embellishing the Perez thing a bit. He was a 1.1 WAR guy in 2016 when he stole 34 bases and hit 13 homers in 3/4 of a season all while playing decent defense around the field. That might actually be worth $8m.


He was a 2.0 WAR guy according to bWAR...do we have to use Fangraphs in such an exercise? Is there a proper WAR to use over another for the $8mil rule? Honestly asking...I don't know. Does the $8mil number come from Fangraphs?

Because according to bWAR Perez has been worth $16mil, $8mil, and $8mil the previous three years.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#51

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:47 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
brooks_quichenick said:
Brew crew 92 said:
If I’m David Stearns, I don’t take the chance of another horrible offensive season from Cain. He’s past prime, defensively he will get worse, Tyrone Taylor can probably provide close to the same offense if healthy, with pretty good defense. 17 million can be spent in a better area of need. And if we re-tool > saved and used at a more opportune time.


Come on. Tyrone Taylor?

[laughing]


I mean Lorenzo Cain is notably below a .700 OPS...speaking just offensively that is pretty easy to outdo. So if you were really confident Cain is over the hill not coming back replacing him offensively would be a job a blind squirrel could accomplish.


I think the thing you are doing is assigning a near-certainty to Cain being washed up.

The one thing that is a near certainty is that someone like Tyrone Taylor would struggle to put up a .650, maybe .700 OPS.

I really don't have a strong opinion on the matter, you may be right about Cain. The issue that for every time that you're right about a Cain being washed up, you're also wrong about Braun's bat (the threads early the last few years) or any other guy like Carlos Santana that has had a renaissance.

There is a nonzero chance that Cain is a superstar next year. There is a zero chance that Tyrone Taylor is a superstar. This is why Cain is being paid the money he is even if the odds of something like that happen become lower and lower every year.


Last edited by bill hAll Star on August 20, 2019, 2:48 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#52

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:47 PM Post
Posts: 3060
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
If I’m David Stearns, I don’t take the chance of another horrible offensive season from Cain. He’s past prime, defensively he will get worse, Tyrone Taylor can probably provide close to the same offense if healthy, with pretty good defense. 17 million can be spent in a better area of need. And if we re-tool > saved and used at a more opportune time.


This is the hottest of your "what have you done for me lately" hot takes. IMO the Brewers are not in the situation of having to cut costs.


If going for it in 2020, if Cain rebounds closer to 2018, then of course he’s worth keeping, but what if, like I believe, he’ll never be anything close to 2018 Cain, what if he’s 2019 Cain? Then What?


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#53

Posted: August 20, 2019, 2:51 PM Post
Posts: 12928
bill hAll Star said:
I think the thing you are doing is assigning a near-certainty to Cain being washed up.


I am assigning nothing to Cain personally. I am saying though is if one personally thinks Cain is washed up at this point replacing him is effortless offensively. It is almost impossible to do worse. I am just saying for Mr '92's sake he isn't that crazy if he 100% is in belief Cain is a goner offensively because a .675 OPS is pretty horrendous for an OFer.

And I am definitely NOT advocating Tyrone Taylor in any form.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#54

Posted: August 20, 2019, 3:12 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
bill hAll Star said:
I think the thing you are doing is assigning a near-certainty to Cain being washed up.


I am assigning nothing to Cain personally. I am saying though is if one personally thinks Cain is washed up at this point replacing him is effortless offensively. It is almost impossible to do worse. I am just saying for Mr '92's sake he isn't that crazy if he 100% is in belief Cain is a goner offensively because a .675 OPS is pretty horrendous for an OFer.

And I am definitely NOT advocating Tyrone Taylor in any form.


That's fine, but even if one scout or fan believes that Cain is washed up, the reason he was paid $75 million dollars is to provide more than $15 million/year of value (2018) and to have a chance to do that again.

A, "I judge things only by how much a player is paid" group can all celebrate when the Brewers bring in Juan Lagares for $3 million next year. It's a damn certainty that he will probably cap out at 1 WAR. *BUT* he will only be paid $3 million.

If we could just cut Cain's salary this offseason at no cost, I'd think about it...there could be uses on 3 players that may fill CF, SS, and C admirably if we're really on a budget but I'm not sure we need to if Attanasio wants to spend on some of those positions even with Cain.

But we probably can't do that so the option is to trade him for an equal risk or pay down some of the salary in prospects or cash.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#55

Posted: August 20, 2019, 3:47 PM Post
Posts: 5088
Location: Madison, WI
If someone would straight take the contract off your hands, sure you probably do it.

But that won't be the case, you're either eating some money or taking on a bad contract yourself. Plus, you're essentially selling very low. It's very rare to fall off this drastically in one season, remember a mere 11ish months ago he was MVP discussion worthy. Combine that with that we know of a litany of injuries he's been dealing with, including the same thumb we saw mess up Braun and I'd strongly gamble that he rebounds next year. As long as he doesn't get hurt again which of course is an issue to factor in though at his age. So combine the odds of some kind of improvement, even if not to 2018 level with the fact that you're still going to be paying some of that money (eating or in taking on bad contract) well you might as well just cross your fingers on the rebound.

Note if relevant, I was one at the time of signing kind of gritting my teeth at giving this to a player at his age and injury history, so I'm by no means a 'cain homer' so to speak. Especially when we had a 550K outfielder on roster who just put up 30 HR on a 370ish obp or whatever it was and was controlled for years (I know the D stuff). Darn our cheap owner though.

Also, anyone notice the dichotomy of one thread demanding to spend money for the sake of spending money and how in just a year after spending on the largest FA contract in team history that we need to rid ourselves of said money.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#56

Posted: August 20, 2019, 4:10 PM Post
Posts: 1101
The $/WAR figure is simply the average of the current free agent contracts out there and the production of those players, and thus changes year to year. And you don't compare that to Hernan Perez (or Keston Hiura or Walker Buehler or Cody Bellinger) because they're not available to be signed only for money, you can't spend your money on them. The free agent pool will always for the most part consist of aging player who you will be overpaying for. You can't fill up your entire payroll with pre-arb and arbitration players, they just don't make enough money. So if a team wants to spend the remaining money, it obviously has to be spent on the players actually available to be signed (Or salary dump trades, I guess). So when considering whether to make free agent signing, or evaluating how good a signing has been, it makes the most sense to compare it to what else you could have spent that money on. Value isn't linear, and things like roster spots and positional distribution and other things also play into it. So sometimes paying $15m/WAR can make sense, and sometimes paying $4m/WAR might not make sense. But even so, when taken together, if a team is paying less than the league average for the production they're getting, that's a sign they've spent their money relatively well.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#57

Posted: August 20, 2019, 5:22 PM Post
Posts: 2017
Location: Madison, WI
It would be very interesting to see how a handful of teams currently value Cain.

Pro-rating out 2019 to a full-season, Cain's recent WAR values:
bWAR = 2017=5.4, 2018=6.9, 2019=2.3
fWAR = 2017=4.3, 2018=5.7, 2019=1.2

Average of all 6 numbers is 4.3. Then knock off 0.5 WAR per season, and if doing so Cain would be good for 9.9 WAR total from 2020-2022.

But if just using the average of 2019, and then knocking off 0.5 WAR per season, then Cain would only project to 2.4 WAR from 2020-2022.

Cain will make 51 million from 2020-2022.

9.9 WAR * 9 million = 89.1 million - 51 million = +38.1 million in surplus value
OR
2.4 WAR * 9 million = 21.6 million - 51 million = -29.4 million in surplus value

Obvious conclusion is that both the big positive number and the big negative number are unrealistic. Just add the two together and it comes out as +8.7 million. Just throwing out all the math, I would guess that Cain still has a slightly positive surplus value despite the subpar season. A +8.7 million in surplus value does not seem like that bad a number. That would basically be getting one role player prospect plus one fringe prospect in return (that's something like a #15 prospect plus a #26 or later prospect off a team's top prospect list).


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#58

Posted: August 20, 2019, 9:17 PM Post
Posts: 1911
I don’t think there’s really a market for Cain that would bring “good” value as we see it. This is quickly becoming an absolutely horrendous signing by David Stearns. The neglect of the pitching staff offseason after offseason and trade deadline after trade deadline makes me ask *** did we even sign Lo for if we weren’t serious about competing?

It reeks of a large scale “bring home the hometown guy that everybody wishes we kept” to placate the fans while business as usual continues. I am a big fan of Cain, but quickly getting frustrated watching joker after joker “patch” an inning together as the offense does its job.

Can’t wait for Brent Suter and his 62mph fastball to save our season baby. Sell that hope brewers media.


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#59

Posted: August 21, 2019, 7:50 AM Post
Posts: 5088
Location: Madison, WI
Cain looked great and like his old self last night. Sign him to an extension now!!


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Offline  Re: Shop Lorenzo Cain?
#60

Posted: August 21, 2019, 2:11 PM Post
Posts: 20235
Tyrone Taylor is essentially a non-prospect at this point and could be a 40 man casualty anytime we need the space. I hardly even know what to think of any analysis that he could just come right up and replace Cain's production.


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