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Trading Hiura

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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#21

Posted: August 26, 2019, 3:15 PM Post
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I guess everyone has a price, but I just fail to see a realistic scenario.

Clevinger. That would be my answer. I don't think it makes sense for the Brewers to try and trade a now, MLB proven good young player for prospects. The risk is too high.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#22

Posted: August 26, 2019, 5:07 PM Post
Posts: 434
RollieTime said:
Every player can be had, but trading a 22 year old that we control for 6 years that is on pace for 40+ doubles, 30+ homers, and can hit over .300 if stretched out over a full season doesn’t seem like a wise move for a team looking to compete. The guy is just beginning and he can already rake.

I don’t understand how some posters (including the OP) were totally against trading Hader because we are trying to contend now and in the near future, but are very open to trading this guy. Hader is going to get expensive very quickly and is controlled for 2 less seasons than Hiura. Relievers are also extremely volatile. It’s quite a drop off from Hiura to Shaw, Saladino, and Perez, but that’s what we would be trotting out there to replace him. There aren’t too many good second baseman out there, but even on the free agent market, who out there would we sign to replace him without spending $10+ million to do it who would put up anything close to Hiura? Isn’t removing Hiura from this lineup going to greatly hurt this offense and our future?

Even Yelich, who I’m totally against trading, people want to keep because of how cheap he is for the production he gives. I don’t see why Hiura couldn’t be a perennial all-star just like Yelich. If he is a .300 hitter and puts up 30+ homers, he would have a real shot at being a top 5 MVP candidate, who we would be paying the league minimum to. Especially when his defense gets a little better, he could be truly special. He’s young and hasn’t played much defense the last few years. Wasn’t there a minor league coach that coached Griffey Jr. among others and said Hiura is a talent similar to that? He’s a cornerstone that we build around, not trade away.

Add a guy like Rendon in free agency to pair with Yelich, Hiura, Grisham, Cain, and Braun, we could really have a special offense. Especially if Moose returns and plays some first to allow Rendon to play third, we would have a roster with a very good balance of righties and lefties with some good pop up and down the lineup from both sides. We would feature a lineup that has 3 guys that could realistically finish in the top 10 in MVP voting in Yelich, Rendon, and Hiura.


Do you really think the Brewers have the money to get Rendon? He'll get $22-25M and a 4-5 year deal easily. I think he's way to expensive for the Crew. Moustakas is a better option at around $11M per for 3 years, and spend the rest they would have spent on Rendon for pitching or a SS. I'm still not sold on Grisham. He hasn't done much in a short span in the big leagues to be overly enthusiastic about him(.228/.303).


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#23

Posted: August 26, 2019, 5:21 PM Post
Posts: 701
Location: Washburn, WI
wntrtxn21 said:
RollieTime said:
Every player can be had, but trading a 22 year old that we control for 6 years that is on pace for 40+ doubles, 30+ homers, and can hit over .300 if stretched out over a full season doesn’t seem like a wise move for a team looking to compete. The guy is just beginning and he can already rake.

I don’t understand how some posters (including the OP) were totally against trading Hader because we are trying to contend now and in the near future, but are very open to trading this guy. Hader is going to get expensive very quickly and is controlled for 2 less seasons than Hiura. Relievers are also extremely volatile. It’s quite a drop off from Hiura to Shaw, Saladino, and Perez, but that’s what we would be trotting out there to replace him. There aren’t too many good second baseman out there, but even on the free agent market, who out there would we sign to replace him without spending $10+ million to do it who would put up anything close to Hiura? Isn’t removing Hiura from this lineup going to greatly hurt this offense and our future?

Even Yelich, who I’m totally against trading, people want to keep because of how cheap he is for the production he gives. I don’t see why Hiura couldn’t be a perennial all-star just like Yelich. If he is a .300 hitter and puts up 30+ homers, he would have a real shot at being a top 5 MVP candidate, who we would be paying the league minimum to. Especially when his defense gets a little better, he could be truly special. He’s young and hasn’t played much defense the last few years. Wasn’t there a minor league coach that coached Griffey Jr. among others and said Hiura is a talent similar to that? He’s a cornerstone that we build around, not trade away.

Add a guy like Rendon in free agency to pair with Yelich, Hiura, Grisham, Cain, and Braun, we could really have a special offense. Especially if Moose returns and plays some first to allow Rendon to play third, we would have a roster with a very good balance of righties and lefties with some good pop up and down the lineup from both sides. We would feature a lineup that has 3 guys that could realistically finish in the top 10 in MVP voting in Yelich, Rendon, and Hiura.


Do you really think the Brewers have the money to get Rendon? He'll get $22-25M and a 4-5 year deal easily. I think he's way to expensive for the Crew. Moustakas is a better option at around $11M per for 3 years, and spend the rest they would have spent on Rendon for pitching or a SS. I'm still not sold on Grisham. He hasn't done much in a short span in the big leagues to be overly enthusiastic about him(.228/.303).


Yeah I think they can fit him in. They would have to give out the largest contract in team history by quite a bit, but he’s a young enough player that I think that it would turn out alright. I don’t think he would prevent the Brewers from making other moves as there could be a ton of money off the books this offseason if Stearns decides to go that route.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#24

Posted: August 26, 2019, 5:45 PM Post
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As bad as Hiura's defense has been, he projects out to a 5-ish WAR player over a full season. Braun was "launching the Titanic" bad in 2007. He was a -2.9 dWAR, and over 113 games, his defense was so bad, he was only a 2.0 WAR.

It's tempting to think of what Hiura can bring back, but despite everyone's eye test, he's not so bad at defense that he's "Ryan Braun / historically bad"

I think he makes some really really bad throws and that skews the perception of how "bad" he is at defense. A comically bad throw now and then is still only one error. Hiura is pretty athletic, and makes some decent plays, and if he can't stick at 2nd, let's find a place for the dude. He's going to put up some .325/35/125 seasons. This isn't Domingo Santana we're talking about trading away here, this is a dude that could put up some .950/1.000 OPS seasons (he already is).


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#25

Posted: August 26, 2019, 7:43 PM Post
Posts: 3060
RollieTime said:
wntrtxn21 said:
RollieTime said:
Every player can be had, but trading a 22 year old that we control for 6 years that is on pace for 40+ doubles, 30+ homers, and can hit over .300 if stretched out over a full season doesn’t seem like a wise move for a team looking to compete. The guy is just beginning and he can already rake.

I don’t understand how some posters (including the OP) were totally against trading Hader because we are trying to contend now and in the near future, but are very open to trading this guy. Hader is going to get expensive very quickly and is controlled for 2 less seasons than Hiura. Relievers are also extremely volatile. It’s quite a drop off from Hiura to Shaw, Saladino, and Perez, but that’s what we would be trotting out there to replace him. There aren’t too many good second baseman out there, but even on the free agent market, who out there would we sign to replace him without spending $10+ million to do it who would put up anything close to Hiura? Isn’t removing Hiura from this lineup going to greatly hurt this offense and our future?

Even Yelich, who I’m totally against trading, people want to keep because of how cheap he is for the production he gives. I don’t see why Hiura couldn’t be a perennial all-star just like Yelich. If he is a .300 hitter and puts up 30+ homers, he would have a real shot at being a top 5 MVP candidate, who we would be paying the league minimum to. Especially when his defense gets a little better, he could be truly special. He’s young and hasn’t played much defense the last few years. Wasn’t there a minor league coach that coached Griffey Jr. among others and said Hiura is a talent similar to that? He’s a cornerstone that we build around, not trade away.

Add a guy like Rendon in free agency to pair with Yelich, Hiura, Grisham, Cain, and Braun, we could really have a special offense. Especially if Moose returns and plays some first to allow Rendon to play third, we would have a roster with a very good balance of righties and lefties with some good pop up and down the lineup from both sides. We would feature a lineup that has 3 guys that could realistically finish in the top 10 in MVP voting in Yelich, Rendon, and Hiura.


Do you really think the Brewers have the money to get Rendon? He'll get $22-25M and a 4-5 year deal easily. I think he's way to expensive for the Crew. Moustakas is a better option at around $11M per for 3 years, and spend the rest they would have spent on Rendon for pitching or a SS. I'm still not sold on Grisham. He hasn't done much in a short span in the big leagues to be overly enthusiastic about him(.228/.303).


Yeah I think they can fit him in. They would have to give out the largest contract in team history by quite a bit, but he’s a young enough player that I think that it would turn out alright. I don’t think he would prevent the Brewers from making other moves as there could be a ton of money off the books this offseason if Stearns decides to go that route.


17-18 million a year extra = No Cain.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#26

Posted: August 26, 2019, 8:06 PM Post
Posts: 1738
Location: Madison, WI
Have to admit, I read all those reports saying there is no reason why Hiura can't be an average MLB 2B defensively and I really have to wonder exactly why it was worded that way. There was a time early in his career where it could have been written that there was no reason that Rickie Weeks can't be a plus-plus MLB second baseman because all the athletic tools were certainly there (and in abundance). But watching Weeks, and it was really hard to ever see him becoming a good defensive second baseman, and with Hiura it's really hard to see him becoming even an average defensive second baseman.

The guy sure can hit though.

I know a lot of people just hate short 1B, but I have to wonder if that is where he will end up.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#27

Posted: August 26, 2019, 8:18 PM Post
Posts: 701
Location: Washburn, WI
JosephC said:
Have to admit, I read all those reports saying there is no reason why Hiura can't be an average MLB 2B defensively and I really have to wonder exactly why it was worded that way. There was a time early in his career where it could have been written that there was no reason that Rickie Weeks can't be a plus-plus MLB second baseman because all the athletic tools were certainly there (and in abundance). But watching Weeks, and it was really hard to ever see him becoming a good defensive second baseman, and with Hiura it's really hard to see him becoming even an average defensive second baseman.

The guy sure can hit though.

I know a lot of people just hate short 1B, but I have to wonder if that is where he will end up.


For what it’s worth, Keston Hiura and Prince Fielder are the same height (5’11 or 6’ depending on the website). I don’t think it would be that big of a deal to move him there. I think that Hiura still has a lot of room for improvement at second since he hasn’t played much in the field the last few years. I’m interested to see if by post all-star break in 2020 if there is significant improvement for him. Lack of reps and increase in shifting at the MLB level is causing him to throw from odd angles and different distances that he may not be totally comfortable doing yet.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#28

Posted: August 27, 2019, 12:46 AM Post
Posts: 1006
wntrtxn21 said:
I'm still not sold on Grisham. He hasn't done much in a short span in the big leagues to be overly enthusiastic about him(.228/.303).


What's the point of using avg/obp if you're using only 2 numbers? You already have OBP, at which point avg (Since it ignores power) adds very little information. To illustrate this, Arcia is .227/.294, yet their wRC+/OPS+ is around 30 points apart, or in raw numbers .657 vs 777 OPS. Completely ignoring power will never give an accurate representation of a players production at the plate. Although selective use of stats is a good way to push a narrative.

Grisham might or might not be a good MLB hitter. But he put up a 193 wRC+ in AAA (League adjusted, so the inflated raw numbers don't impact this) and in his first 66 PAs (At 22) in the majors hasn't looked overmatched. The strike zone discipline and contact skills are there (2nd best O-swing % on the team, lowest swinging strike %, highest contact %). That, and a normalization of his current .225 BABIP, should show up in his batting line soon enough. There's every reason to think he'll be at least an average MLB hitter even if one is a glass half empty kind of person. One doesn't have to be an overly optimistic person to think there's a good chance he could be better than that either.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#29

Posted: August 27, 2019, 6:29 AM Post
Posts: 4594
Hiura probably has more value to the brewers organization right now than yelich given how many more years of control they have with him and the option of getting even more with an initial contract extension, and that's despite the fact his defense is bad. As others have pointed out, let Hiura have some time to improve his defense to hopefully become below average at 2nd...he's basically at the low A level of defensive development because he didn't play in the field for 2+ yrs between college and initial few months in the minors due to his arm troubles.

If he can stick at 2b and improve marginally defensively, he has the ceiling of an mvp candidate with the offensive numbers he'll put up. Move him to 1st or OF and he's probably limited to becoming an above league average player at those positions, and probably still isnt great defensively. Sure, if the dh shows up in the nl, he'd be a great fit in that role, too. But it would be dumb to try trading him to an AL team now as a DH.. you would never get anywhere close to equal value in return.

Despite his defensive problems, Hiura solves the 2b offensive black hole this organization has had since Weeks' career was limited by wrist and ankle injuries. Why in the world would the brewers trade that away less than 1 season into his career?


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#30

Posted: August 27, 2019, 8:01 AM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
I'd love for a way to get Rendon here. I think if you squint hard enough you can justify the spending. For example, you cut out the the 10ish mil for Moose and 5ish mil for Shaw. Could let Grandal go at C and save that money too and spend the remainder on pitching. Then Braun's clears the year after. Then Cain's would clear for the back end of the contract. Probably don't/can't go past 5 years with him though so I'd still assume someone trumps us.

For Hiura's D. Yea it sure would suck to have to use an athletic person at DH/1B. There just has to be someplace he can go. With how little he's played 2B though I don't think it's time to give up. Really it's just the throwing that is the killer. Seems mental a bit but just get some expert in to work with him and see how it goes next year. Also, yea it wouldn't surprise me if he's taller than Prince if it comes to going to 1B in 2021. I feel like it was pretty well known Prince's listed height was not accurate and he was a bit shorter than that, in the 5'10 range. Though I've never met him in person so IDK.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#31

Posted: August 27, 2019, 8:50 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
I'd love for a way to get Rendon here.

Rendon is going to get $30M or more on a deal this off season. Probably at least five years.

Arenado got 8-years at $35M/year - although he is a year younger and considered to be a better defensive player. But that's not a bad comp for Rendon.

Rendon is simply a fantastic hitter. .300+ for three years running, 4+ WAR for 5 of the last 6 years. On pace for his best season (1.024 OPS). And at age 30, he's still not that old. The biggest ding against Rendon is that he's had some injuries here and there, but I don't think it will affect his value too much.

I love Rendon, but I doubt we go into $30M territory on a player.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#32

Posted: August 27, 2019, 9:14 AM Post
Posts: 11867
You can forget about Rendon. We aren't giving him $30mil a year and you should be real glad we won't. That fixes one offensive hole, but means we will have a ton of black holes. SS and C for sure and likely one of CF/1B. Would also make it hard to improve the pitching spending that kind of cash on one player when we don't have a ton of payroll to play with as is.

Nice dream, not too realistic.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#33

Posted: August 27, 2019, 9:17 AM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
Yea for sure if it goes to 30. But I'm assuming the current market won't give him that much, but of course who knows. I was thinking more in the 22-27 mil type area for him, down per year if you increase years, etc. Still, as I said I think we'll get trumped as well so I agree with you. Say our offer was like 5/120ish. We could talk ourselves into that but chances are someone does beat it.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#34

Posted: August 27, 2019, 9:24 AM Post
Posts: 434
tmwiese55 said:
I'd love for a way to get Rendon here. I think if you squint hard enough you can justify the spending. For example, you cut out the the 10ish mil for Moose and 5ish mil for Shaw. Could let Grandal go at C and save that money too and spend the remainder on pitching. Then Braun's clears the year after. Then Cain's would clear for the back end of the contract. Probably don't/can't go past 5 years with him though so I'd still assume someone trumps us.

For Hiura's D. Yea it sure would suck to have to use an athletic person at DH/1B. There just has to be someplace he can go. With how little he's played 2B though I don't think it's time to give up. Really it's just the throwing that is the killer. Seems mental a bit but just get some expert in to work with him and see how it goes next year. Also, yea it wouldn't surprise me if he's taller than Prince if it comes to going to 1B in 2021. I feel like it was pretty well known Prince's listed height was not accurate and he was a bit shorter than that, in the 5'10 range. Though I've never met him in person so IDK.


By comparison Rendon is going to get somewhere around $30-32M per yr, 4-5 yr deal. Grandal = $16M Shaw= $4.7M Moustakas = $8+M Total about $29M, less than what it's going to cost for Rendon. With needs at SP & SS, plus the increases for arby players, the money just doesn't add up. Moustakas right now: .263/.334 31HRs 71 RBIs would be just fine at 3B. Imo they re-sign Moose at somewhere around 3 for $33M and spend the money on pitching and SS.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#35

Posted: August 27, 2019, 9:34 AM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
We'll see, but I do think ya'll might be over guessing a bit on what he gets considering how the last few years of FA have gone and he'll be 30 next year. Still, I do agree that we'll be beaten on the deal as I said in my initial post and even that I said 'squint hard enough' to even try to justify a low to mid 20s per year.

If I was Rendon I'd have just taken my 140-150mil from the Nats and been done with it, assuming they offered it at some point in the last year or so.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#36

Posted: August 27, 2019, 1:47 PM Post
Posts: 3060
Sign Donaldson to a 1 or 2 year deal, save 100 million. Get a slight downgrade but still great player that would fit the Yelich window a little better.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#37

Posted: August 27, 2019, 1:59 PM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
Brew crew 92 said:
Sign Donaldson to a 1 or 2 year deal, save 100 million. Get a slight downgrade but still great player that would fit the Yelich window a little better.


Sounds good and all but if I recall the new person running Atl is tied to him back from his Tor days and that's why he went there due to relationship. I'd assume he works something out with them. Probably missed our chance on him last year.

Generally agree with your lower risk track here though, maybe some other similar options like that who are bit better than Moose. Seems contrary to your posts on financials elsewhere though, haha jk.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#38

Posted: August 27, 2019, 2:22 PM Post
Posts: 3060
tmwiese55 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Sign Donaldson to a 1 or 2 year deal, save 100 million. Get a slight downgrade but still great player that would fit the Yelich window a little better.


Sounds good and all but if I recall the new person running Atl is tied to him back from his Tor days and that's why he went there due to relationship. I'd assume he works something out with them. Probably missed our chance on him last year.

Generally agree with your lower risk track here though, maybe some other similar options like that who are bit better than Moose. Seems contrary to your posts on financials elsewhere though, haha jk.


I’m predicting that Stearns goes all in next year. And because of that I am predicting an opening day payroll of 145 million. And if Nelson and Shaw aren’t tendered and Cain is traded, we’d have ~ 80 million in contracts. 65 million to invest in SS 3B CF SP Bullpen. Maybe the Braves decide to put Riley back at his natural 3B position and spend 23 million in another area?


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#39

Posted: August 27, 2019, 3:26 PM Post
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the brewers have 2 solid pieces of their lineup coming back next season guaranteed, and he is one of them with 5 years of control. he is as close to untouchable as one can be.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#40

Posted: August 27, 2019, 4:56 PM Post
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patrickgpe said:
the brewers have 2 solid pieces of their lineup coming back next season guaranteed, and he is one of them with 5 years of control. he is as close to untouchable as one can be.


It is one of those situations where his trade value might be higher than his actual value though...particularly to an American League team...IF his defense is unimprovable, anyway. I don't think it is. Yet.

Yelich's actual value is almost assuredly higher than his trade value.


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