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Trading Hiura

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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#61

Posted: September 09, 2019, 8:52 AM Post
Posts: 5197
Location: Madison, WI
I'd slightly disagree in that he's fairly athletic/fast so it would kind of suck to not find someplace he can adequately play other than 1B/DH. I'm not saying he's like Javy Baez athletic or something, just saying he's not a bigger guy who's a stiff that you normally put at DH/1B. If the arm is that bad with strength, then it seems 2B or bust. To me the issues have been accuracy on throws. Reduce the absolutely brutally inaccurate throws by half and it moves him towards respectability really quickly.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#62

Posted: September 09, 2019, 9:47 AM Post
Posts: 13182
tmwiese55 said:
I'd slightly disagree in that he's fairly athletic/fast so it would kind of suck to not find someplace he can adequately play other than 1B/DH. I'm not saying he's like Javy Baez athletic or something, just saying he's not a bigger guy who's a stiff that you normally put at DH/1B. If the arm is that bad with strength, then it seems 2B or bust. To me the issues have been accuracy on throws. Reduce the absolutely brutally inaccurate throws by half and it moves him towards respectability really quickly.


I'm not trying to say he is Eric Thames slow/unathletic...but he certainly isn't going to cover a ton of ground or make up for bad instincts with his speed. If we couldn't stand watching Khris Davis in the OF I would really hate to see Hiura out there. Any struggle in addition to his arm would nosedive his OF defense to scary territory. I guess I would rather take -2.5 WAR at 2B over moving him to the OF and getting -2.0 WAR because of less opportunities to screw up...just for example sake. I think he is more competent than a Ryan Braun who was a -3.0 WAR guy in just 113 games at 3B.

I think he can improve, but I doubt it really ever gets great. I am hoping he can get to a Rickie Weeks level of defense at worst. Which would require a big reduction in errors as his range/arm aren't ever going to give him bonus points on defense. His double play turning has been a pleasant surprise on a positive note. I was expecting that to be worse than it is.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#63

Posted: September 09, 2019, 5:35 PM Post
Posts: 2242
Location: Madison, WI
I'm guessing Hiura will be like Jeff Kent...a poor defender that you can live with considering the offensive impact he has.

He was on pace to pretty much be a 4.5 - 5.0 WAR player had he been in the big leagues since opening day and was with the team for all 170+ days of the regular season. If he was a great defender at 2B, he might have the upside of an 8 - 10 WAR player per year. Even if he doesn't improve defensively, he still has 5 - 6 WAR upside with his offensive capabilities...and generally nobody complains about players who post 5+ WAR in a season.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#64

Posted: September 10, 2019, 7:35 AM Post
Posts: 5112
I'm guessing much of Hiura's issues with throwing accuracy come from positioning in shifts - many times the 2B winds up playing shallow RF or directly behind 2B, which makes those throws much longer or from a different angle than where second basemen would traditionally field a ball and throw to first. I think his arm is strong enough to play the position, but he needs more work making the variety of throws the 2B position requires considering all the shifting.

His glovework is ok, however Hiura's hands are like stones at times that lead to dropping throws on tag plays or struggling to field sharply hit balls. That can be improved over time, too.

I doubt Hiura is in the running for any gold gloves at the Keystone position, and that's just fine. If he hits to his abilities and marginally improves defensively he's a 6-8 WAR player over the course of a MLB season, which is fringe MVP range for a second baseman.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#65

Posted: October 16, 2019, 6:40 AM Post
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The founder of the Baseball Trade Values website, John Bitzer, came up with the following proposal, and I am curious if others would be willing to make this move? I am on the fence about it, but thought it might make for an interesting conversation...

Reminder: John is a registered poster here at Brewerfan.net, and may join the discussion on this one at some point.


Here is a LINK to the below trade proposal:

Image

John also left these comments on the site regarding his proposal:

”The Brewers need to go all-in at this point, while their Yelich/Cain window is still open. Story matches that window, and he’s a perfect fit for Milwaukee, as they’re one of the few contending teams looking for a SS upgrade. They also need starting pitching (hence Gray), would be willing to take on Davis as he still has some field value, and might take a shot on a change of scenery guy in Hoffman. Oh, and they could use Wolters to help replace Grandal. It’s a one-stop shop trade for them!

In return, they give up Hiura, a franchise talent who would go to Coors Field and hit like bananas. He’d pair with Rodgers for a young up-the-middle combination that, when coupled with Arenado, could form a new core for Colorado.”



So would you support this deal from the Brewers standpoint?


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#66

Posted: October 16, 2019, 6:52 AM Post
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Posts: 10234
Eye Black said:
The founder of the Baseball Trade Values website, John Bitzer, came up with the following proposal, and I am curious if others would be willing to make this move? I am on the fence about it, but thought it might make for an interesting conversation...

Reminder: John is a registered poster here at Brewerfan.net, and may join the discussion on this one at some point.


Here is a LINK to the below trade proposal:

Image

John also left these comments on the site regarding his proposal:

”The Brewers need to go all-in at this point, while their Yelich/Cain window is still open. Story matches that window, and he’s a perfect fit for Milwaukee, as they’re one of the few contending teams looking for a SS upgrade. They also need starting pitching (hence Gray), would be willing to take on Davis as he still has some field value, and might take a shot on a change of scenery guy in Hoffman. Oh, and they could use Wolters to help replace Grandal. It’s a one-stop shop trade for them!

In return, they give up Hiura, a franchise talent who would go to Coors Field and hit like bananas. He’d pair with Rodgers for a young up-the-middle combination that, when coupled with Arenado, could form a new core for Colorado.”



So would you support this deal from the Brewers standpoint?


Wow, that would certainly be a tempting proposal. This would be the ultimate "all-in" move for 2020-21, as Story and Gray are free agents after 2021. It does create a hole at 2B though. Do they just hand the job to Spangenberg with the hope that he can be a serviceable bottom-of-the-order bat?


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#67

Posted: October 16, 2019, 7:25 AM Post
Posts: 13182
Cash strapped Brewers trading away one of their main offensive pieces and then taking on $17mil dead money in a trade? We then take on major salary in Gray/Story (probably at least another $17mil).

So to summarize right now we have added about $34mil to the payroll next year, essentially swapped offense between Hiura/Story, got an overrated starter in Gray, Hoffman who was hideous last year, and a terrible hitting catcher.

Of course this depends greatly on how you feel Story would hit outside of Coors. His current OPS away from home is .756. So maybe generous saying he will be even with Hiura...maybe Hiura would out hit him, IDK. Figured it is safe to say they are aN offensive wash. While Story plays the more premium position we have no one to even play 2B and the market isn't great. So overall between 2B/SS I don't think we really get better...at least not lets spend $34mil and get exponentially less control better. Wolters "helping" replace Grandal is interesting to say the least. Wolters is horrid despite spending half his time in Coors.

This isn't tempting at all to me. I will keep Hiura and go spend $34mil way better ways than that. To me "all in" means getting exponentially better and dramatically increasing your chances short term. I don't think this trade is a dramatic increase to our chances. For the same cost we could keep Hiura, sign Moustakas, sign Grandal, and probably snag a starter for the rotation.

I could think of numerous things I would rather do than this trade.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#68

Posted: October 16, 2019, 7:35 AM Post
Posts: 12338
MrTPlush said:
Cash strapped Brewers trading away one of their main offensive pieces and then taking on $17mil dead money in a trade? We then take on major salary in Gray/Story (probably at least another $17mil).

So to summarize right now we have added about $34mil to the payroll next year, essentially swapped offense between Hiura/Story, got an overrated starter in Gray, Hoffman who was hideous last year, and a terrible hitting catcher.

Of course this depends greatly on how you feel Story would hit outside of Coors. His current OPS away from home is .756. So maybe generous saying he will be even with Hiura...maybe Hiura would out hit him, IDK. Figured it is safe to say they are aN offensive wash. While Story plays the more premium position we have no one to even play 2B and the market isn't great. So overall between 2B/SS I don't think we really get better...at least not lets spend $34mil and get exponentially less control better. Wolters "helping" replace Grandal is interesting to say the least. Wolters is horrid despite spending half his time in Coors.

This isn't tempting at all to me. I will keep Hiura and go spend $34mil way better ways than that. To me "all in" means getting exponentially better and dramatically increasing your chances short term. I don't think this trade is a dramatic increase to our chances. For the same cost we could keep Hiura, sign Moustakas, sign Grandal, and probably snag a starter for the rotation.

I could think of numerous things I would rather do than this trade.


Ditto. The last thing this team needs if it's going all in is dead money and losing a premier bat with the kind of control Hiura. It's not enough return to get them over the hump and almost assures a fire sale rebuild in 2022.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#69

Posted: October 16, 2019, 7:35 AM Post
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Posts: 1307
So this proposal is essentially trading Keston Huira for two expensive years of Trevor Story and the Rockies garbage?

I'm sure the Rockies would do this in a heartbeat.

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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#70

Posted: October 16, 2019, 7:39 AM Post
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Posts: 14184
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Yeah, I don't quite get that trade. I'm all for moving Hiura if the price is right but that certainly isn't it.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#71

Posted: October 16, 2019, 7:46 AM Post
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I'm obviously skewed. I've always liked Trevor Story. I think Gray and Hoffman are prime bounce-back candidates too.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#72

Posted: October 16, 2019, 7:46 AM Post
Posts: 20582
Uh, Jon Gray is not "garbage". He is a major part of this deal.

I'm not saying I'd for sure do it, but to call Gray garbage is just really inaccurate.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#73

Posted: October 16, 2019, 7:54 AM Post
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Posts: 4533
Gray is weird because he was worse away from Coors field this year. Overall on the year his numbers were pretty solid actually.

You would get two years of Gray. Two years of Story. Hoffman has been brutal in the majors but I guess he could bounce back. Not sure I do that for Huira but it would definitely help us the next two years


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#74

Posted: October 16, 2019, 7:54 AM Post
Posts: 1307
Location: Ohio
adambr2 said:
Uh, Jon Gray is not "garbage". He is a major part of this deal.
I'm not saying I'd for sure do it, but to call Gray garbage is just really inaccurate.


Where is the like/ +1 button to support & back these comments????


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#75

Posted: October 16, 2019, 8:03 AM Post
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Posts: 10234
If they could find a way to pry Kyle Freeland away instead of one of the other pieces, I would be really on board. He had a pretty terrible 2019, but looked like an ace in 2018. He's another prime bounce-back guy.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#76

Posted: October 16, 2019, 8:14 AM Post
Posts: 5197
Location: Madison, WI
Interesting and creative idea. But I think Plush's take more or less nails it. you're essentially swapping Story/Hiura's production and hole at the other spot but one is cheap and controlled for like 6 more years in exchange for a ton of salary and some pitching, but not any pitching that is going to make anyone too excited. Good effort but I don't think quite right in order to give up such a near lock to be a massive hitter on the cheap like Hiura.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#77

Posted: October 16, 2019, 8:53 AM Post
Posts: 13182
I think it would make more sense for the Brewers to keep Hiura and try to get one of Gray or Story outright. That seems way more "win now" to me. Using prospects (Burnes/Peralta/Turang/etc.) and not making massive subtractions to the MLB roster.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#78

Posted: October 16, 2019, 9:11 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 7421
Eye Black said:
The founder of the Baseball Trade Values website, John Bitzer, came up with the following proposal, and I am curious if others would be willing to make this move? I am on the fence about it, but thought it might make for an interesting conversation...

Reminder: John is a registered poster here at Brewerfan.net, and may join the discussion on this one at some point.


Here is a LINK to the below trade proposal:

Image

John also left these comments on the site regarding his proposal:

”The Brewers need to go all-in at this point, while their Yelich/Cain window is still open. Story matches that window, and he’s a perfect fit for Milwaukee, as they’re one of the few contending teams looking for a SS upgrade. They also need starting pitching (hence Gray), would be willing to take on Davis as he still has some field value, and might take a shot on a change of scenery guy in Hoffman. Oh, and they could use Wolters to help replace Grandal. It’s a one-stop shop trade for them!

In return, they give up Hiura, a franchise talent who would go to Coors Field and hit like bananas. He’d pair with Rodgers for a young up-the-middle combination that, when coupled with Arenado, could form a new core for Colorado.”



So would you support this deal from the Brewers standpoint?

My biggest concern is Story's performance away from Coors. At Coors, he puts up a 1.000 OPS. Away from Coors, he's an .800 OPS. The latter number is not bad for a SS, but it's not great.

I'd be afraid we'd get a good, but not great player, who will be really expensive, and under control for only three years.

Still, it's an interesting idea. I like Gray (and Hoffman as a throw in). And many players thrive outside of Coors (look at LaMahieu). It's not like Story couldn't adjust to playing in a different environment.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#79

Posted: October 16, 2019, 9:18 AM Post
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Posts: 2805
reillymcshane said:
Eye Black said:
The founder of the Baseball Trade Values website, John Bitzer, came up with the following proposal, and I am curious if others would be willing to make this move? I am on the fence about it, but thought it might make for an interesting conversation...

Reminder: John is a registered poster here at Brewerfan.net, and may join the discussion on this one at some point.


Here is a LINK to the below trade proposal:

Image

John also left these comments on the site regarding his proposal:

”The Brewers need to go all-in at this point, while their Yelich/Cain window is still open. Story matches that window, and he’s a perfect fit for Milwaukee, as they’re one of the few contending teams looking for a SS upgrade. They also need starting pitching (hence Gray), would be willing to take on Davis as he still has some field value, and might take a shot on a change of scenery guy in Hoffman. Oh, and they could use Wolters to help replace Grandal. It’s a one-stop shop trade for them!

In return, they give up Hiura, a franchise talent who would go to Coors Field and hit like bananas. He’d pair with Rodgers for a young up-the-middle combination that, when coupled with Arenado, could form a new core for Colorado.”



So would you support this deal from the Brewers standpoint?

My biggest concern is Story's performance away from Coors. At Coors, he puts up a 1.000 OPS. Away from Coors, he's an .800 OPS. The latter number is not bad for a SS, but it's not great.

I'd be afraid we'd get a good, but not great player, who will be really expensive, and under control for only three years.

Still, it's an interesting idea. I like Gray (and Hoffman as a throw in). And many players thrive outside of Coors (look at LaMahieu). It's not like Story couldn't adjust to playing in a different environment.


LaMahieu is a perfect hitter for the juiced ball and Yankee Stadium is almost as good of a park as Coors. Better for homers (but not even close for AVG/XBH). But DJ squares up the ball well to all fields, which is the type of hitter that absolutely thrived on the juiced ball this year. He basically hit a ton of juiced ball homers in Yankee Stadium this year. That's the explanation for his explosion away from Coors. He used to be terrible playing away games.

All of that said, the benefit of Story, even if he's a .780 OPS guy outside of Coors, is that he's a great defender. That means he's a really good shortstop. Hiura plays bad defense at a not-important position but might be a better bat.

Wade Davis was fine outside of Coors the past few years. He fell apart late this season away but I think he'd be a useful bullpen arm to potentially revive.

Hoffman is probably a lost prospect but could be revived to give you 2-3 nice years of pitching control.

I like this deal. I'd do it.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#80

Posted: October 16, 2019, 11:09 AM Post
Posts: 156
No way am I trading away a super elite bat in Hiura when our lineup didn't score enough as it was. We would be giving away control years and lessening the offense while adding a ton in payroll. The focus when this team was struggling was almost exclusively focused on the pitching and not nearly enough attention was spent on an underachieving offense.

Hiura is a guy to try to lock up past his 6 plus years of control not a guy to trade. Story is a good player but with only two years of control and his less than stellar numbers away from Colorado he cannot be the key piece in trading away a guy like Hiura. Story strikes out a ton and would just add to this teams issues driving in runs without hitting HRs.

Gray and Hoffman are both interesting guys but don't really offer more upside than Burnes and Peralta especially when you factor in the years of control we have with our guys vs the two years left to turn Gray around. This team should never take on a contract like Wade Davis and Wolters adds nothing.

We need more hitters like Hiura and taking him away from this team would be a huge mistake. I understand his defense is not good but Keston is a special hitter and really the type that we should lock up past his 6 years of control. No way would I even consider a deal like this.


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