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Trading Hiura

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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#81

Posted: October 16, 2019, 11:16 AM Post
Posts: 78
Using the Rockies as a partner like above.

Brendan Rodgers 71
Garrett Hampson 10.7
Kyle Freeland 6.1
Wade Davis -15.7
72.00 FVA

Keston Hiura 72.5
Corey Ray 4.8
77.3 FVA

Rockies get a middle of the order bat to make a mashing IF of Arenado/Story/Hiura/McMahon, take a shot on Ray finding his swing in Coors, and cut Davis' salary. Brewers get long term solid contributers in Rogers/Hampson, take a flier on Freeland bouncing back, and eating Davis' salary hoping he can improve by getting out of Coors.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#82

Posted: October 16, 2019, 11:46 AM Post
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I hate COL trades. The Rockie effect of that stadium are just so unpredictable once they leave.

None of those guys excite me, not nearly as much as Hiura excites me.

To be honest, I'd rather trade Hader for a HUGE package rather than Hiura. And not with the Rockies.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#83

Posted: October 16, 2019, 12:29 PM Post
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turborickey said:
I hate COL trades. The Rockie effect of that stadium are just so unpredictable once they leave.

None of those guys excite me, not nearly as much as Hiura excites me.

To be honest, I'd rather trade Hader for a HUGE package rather than Hiura. And not with the Rockies.


We as simple fans can make reasonable guesses.

Very smart organizations like the Yankees and Brewers actually have the tools to make a pretty good guess at these things. One of the only successful players to leave there in recent times is DJ Lemahieu and I think they guessed that he'd hit enough homers over the short RF porch that it was worth it. He also is a great defender and as I noted before, the juiced ball was huge for him. Likely more than it was for others.

Trevor Story is already a passable hitter outside of Coors. It's not like he'd go belly up at the plate away from there.

Story is actually trending right along the Tulo path. If Tulo was healthy, we'd have seen great defense + decent offensive numbers in Toronto. He only had one season that we can really look at (2016), and he put up a 3 WAR in about 3/4 of the season with a .761 OPS (I'd bump Story's numbers up a bit if we still have the juiced ball next year).

Thing is, though, the Blue Jays got Tulo at age 30. The Brewers will get Story in his age 27 season in this scenario.

Corey Dickerson similarly was a completely reasonable hitter outside of Coors as expected. He dropped from roughly a .900 OPS guy to probably an .800 OPS guy. Problem is, he is a poor corner outfield defender. Not much use for him.

I would reasonably project Story putting up a .265/.325/.450 slash line with 25 homers for the Brewers and good/great defense. If the ball remains juiced, maybe bump all of that up slightly.

Tulowitzki did about as expected other than age/injury. Right about what I'd put Story at above. He just got old and fell apart so he underwhelmed those modest expectations in part of his time there.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#84

Posted: October 16, 2019, 1:22 PM Post
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turborickey said:
I hate COL trades. The Rockie effect of that stadium are just so unpredictable once they leave.



DJ LeMahieu is a good example:

2018 H/R splits
H: 317/360/433
R: 229/277/422

2019 Yankees line:
327/375/518

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#85

Posted: October 16, 2019, 1:26 PM Post
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homer said:
turborickey said:
I hate COL trades. The Rockie effect of that stadium are just so unpredictable once they leave.



DJ LeMahieu is a good example:

2018 H/R splits
H: 317/360/433
R: 229/277/422

2019 Yankees line:
327/375/518


I addressed it a few posts. He is a unicorn.

He is the type of hitter that thrived with the juiced ball. Players that hit the ball hard to all fields turned into superstars (see: La Stella, Tommy and McNeil, Jeff).

He went to Yankee Stadium which is easier to hit home runs in than Coors is. He hit 19 there and only 8 on the road.

I think it's pretty easy to have a better prediction of guys outside of odd things like that happening. Unless a guy goes to the 2nd best hitting park and the baseball gets juiced, nothing like this will ever happen again.

If they unjuice the baseball next year, DJ is going to hit roughly .270-.280 as he did on the road prior to Coors Field. With the Yankees he may go a bit higher than usual and hit 20 homers instead of his 10-15 he did with the Rockies because Yankee Stadium is a better HR park (especially for his swing) than Coors.

Everyone else that has left Coors Field recently has gone as expected. Just chop roughly .100, maybe .150 depending on the hitter and new ballpark off of their OPS. Other than guys like Charlie Culberson who was just a rookie when he played his Coors seasons and then developed into a better player years later, you can't really find many other examples of guys that have put up better numbers after they left.


Last edited by bill hAll Star on October 16, 2019, 1:34 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#86

Posted: October 16, 2019, 1:34 PM Post
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homer said:
turborickey said:
I hate COL trades. The Rockie effect of that stadium are just so unpredictable once they leave.



DJ LeMahieu is a good example:

2018 H/R splits
H: 317/360/433
R: 229/277/422

2019 Yankees line:
327/375/518


I remember strongly advocating for the Brewers to sign LeMahieu last offseason, and was met with plenty of vinegar saying that he would be bad outside of Coors. Fact is, if you're a good hitter, you're a good hitter. Coors definitely does help some hitters. I'd argue that a guy like Story is going to be really good wherever he goes.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#87

Posted: October 16, 2019, 1:39 PM Post
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I'm telling you guys - if the ball remains juiced next season, guys like Eric Sogard, Tommy La Stella, and LaMehieu become coveted assets. Those guys get the biggest benefit.

If the ball is not juiced, Sogard is in AAA, La Stella is an MLB utility man, and DJ is a slightly above average starting 2B.

This isn't a "aw shucks we don't know how these guys will do outside of Coors." We do. Luckily for DJ he lost one cheat code and gained another cheat code.

LaMehieu's spray charts and hard hit %s remained very similar. He didn't hit the ball in the air any more than he used to. Because of the juiced ball and his approach at the plate, he maintained a Coors Field BABIP (the ultimate batting average cheat code) outside of Coors Field. That's all it was. Take away the juiced ball and he hits .275.

Somebody find me an MLB mainstay that was a better hitter away from Coors other than career regressions like Murphy or Desmond. The list is essentially empty other than DJ in the juiced ball year. Everyone else falls off a cliff other than oddities like this.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#88

Posted: October 16, 2019, 3:51 PM Post
Posts: 749
Vollbc74 said:
Using the Rockies as a partner like above.

Brendan Rodgers 71
Garrett Hampson 10.7
Kyle Freeland 6.1
Wade Davis -15.7
72.00 FVA

Keston Hiura 72.5
Corey Ray 4.8
77.3 FVA

Rockies get a middle of the order bat to make a mashing IF of Arenado/Story/Hiura/McMahon, take a shot on Ray finding his swing in Coors, and cut Davis' salary. Brewers get long term solid contributers in Rogers/Hampson, take a flier on Freeland bouncing back, and eating Davis' salary hoping he can improve by getting out of Coors.


Rodgers still a prospect and not proven like Hiura. Hampson offers very little more than Arcia. Freeland a little better away from home, but still terrible. Davis has a huge salary and not much else. No thanks. Getting an unproven prospect, a huge paycheck reliever, a guy who wouldn't make the starting rotation, and a bench guy is not even close to value for Hiura.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#89

Posted: October 16, 2019, 3:56 PM Post
Posts: 749
bill hAll Star said:
I'm telling you guys - if the ball remains juiced next season, guys like Eric Sogard, Tommy La Stella, and LaMehieu become coveted assets. Those guys get the biggest benefit.

If the ball is not juiced, Sogard is in AAA, La Stella is an MLB utility man, and DJ is a slightly above average starting 2B.

This isn't a "aw shucks we don't know how these guys will do outside of Coors." We do. Luckily for DJ he lost one cheat code and gained another cheat code.

LaMehieu's spray charts and hard hit %s remained very similar. He didn't hit the ball in the air any more than he used to. Because of the juiced ball and his approach at the plate, he maintained a Coors Field BABIP (the ultimate batting average cheat code) outside of Coors Field. That's all it was. Take away the juiced ball and he hits .275.

Somebody find me an MLB mainstay that was a better hitter away from Coors other than career regressions like Murphy or Desmond. The list is essentially empty other than DJ in the juiced ball year. Everyone else falls off a cliff other than oddities like this.


LaMehieu also is making $12M this year and next. Too much for the Crew especially when Hiura was coming up sometime this year.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#90

Posted: October 16, 2019, 4:36 PM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
Everyone else falls off a cliff other than oddities like this.


Exactly, which is why I don't want the Rockies as a trading partner unless it involves Arenado...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#91

Posted: October 16, 2019, 5:32 PM Post
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I think the Trade Value webesite is pretty neat, and it does a nice job of generating fan site discussion and hot stove fodder, but I'm not sure it always does a great job of actually valuing players properly, or really let's you mish mash players contextually.

A player might be worth X, and another player might be worth Y, but if you just take a pile of players worth XYZ, are they lumped together worth XYZ? I'm not sure that's the case. There's a lot of factors that I don't think a website calculator can take into account. The sum of a pile isn't always worth the whole.

EDIT TO ADD:

I want no part of Trevor Story and the money he's owed outside of Coors, if it involves giving up Huira . I don't like the argument of "Lemahieu hit good in Yankee stadium, so Story will probably/possibly/maybe be fine". 1) Yankee stadium might be as good a hitters park as COors. 2) one guy hit great outside of Coors, and anyone can probably quickly find 10 guys that struggled once they were no longer Rockies. IF they stay with a juiced ball, he will be fine! Welll...... they had a juiced ball this year and he didn't crack an .800 OPS outside of Denver. Is that a gamble the Brewers should take with a cornerstone bat like Keston Huira? I'm not sure about that.

EDIT 2 to add, If the calculator requires the Brewers to take a busted contract like Wade Davis to make it "work", it's fundamentally broken. The Brewers aren't in position to be paying 8.00 ERA relievers 15 million dollars per year to make trades work to get expensive Shortstops, in place of their currently inexpensive .950 OPS 2nd baseman.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#92

Posted: October 16, 2019, 6:42 PM Post
Posts: 325
Are we at all worried about Hirua’s high K-rate (30%) and low contact percentage (65%)? Looking at guys who have K rates of 30%+ and contact rates of 65% or less it isn’t pretty or overly sustainable to be successful. He seems like a guy who will improve, but he almost has to. I don’t think he can sustain success with those rates, especially if they unjuice the ball and the low levels of contact he is making suffers. I’d be open to moving him for the right package, this also doesn’t take in to account the defense.


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Offline  Re: Trading Hiura
#93

Posted: October 17, 2019, 7:08 AM Post
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turborickey said:
bill hAll Star said:
Everyone else falls off a cliff other than oddities like this.


Exactly, which is why I don't want the Rockies as a trading partner unless it involves Arenado...


But Trevor Story falling off a cliff from Coors numbers is still a great player.

I would love to have a .780 OPS shortstop that hits 25-30 homers and plays great defense. I'd maybe even shoot a little higher on the projections if the juiced ball stays in play.


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