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Lyles extension?

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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#21

Posted: August 29, 2019, 8:27 AM Post
Posts: 5116
Location: New Berlin, WI
I never thought this was THAT crazy either. It wouldn't surprise me if a team gave him a 2 year deal in the $10-12 million range. I don't know that it's wise for the Brewers to spend that money that much money on a very questionable arm, but the upside he's shown can probably get him a deal in that range.


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#22

Posted: August 29, 2019, 8:36 AM Post
Posts: 4721
Location: Madison, WI
Yea I'd definitely want him back but I doubt this guy is getting anything guaranteed beyond one year. Maybe a team option after or something if he finishes strong. I just don't think the market for him would be that strong so you're bidding against yourself. But I for sure wouldn't be doing it now when you still have another month of sample to see how he does. If he returns to his normal form over the next 5 starts well then he'll be exactly what he's been his whole career. Very few guys miraculously find it his age and after this much time of not being good.

Conversely, could you imagine the bashing this guy would've gotten by some folks here after the stretch he had with Pit before we acquired him? It would've been a Stearns fireable offense that he was being trouted out there every start.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on August 29, 2019, 8:57 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#23

Posted: August 29, 2019, 8:43 AM Post
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Posts: 13550
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Lyles is making $2M this season. Now we want to give him $10+M? Yikes.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#24

Posted: August 29, 2019, 8:44 AM Post
Posts: 11914
tmwiese55 said:
Yea I'd definitely want him back but I doubt this guy is getting anything guaranteed beyond one year. Maybe a team option after or something if he finishes strong. I just don't think the market for him would be that strong so you're bidding against yourself. But I for sure wouldn't be doing it now when you still have another of sample to see how he does. If he returns to his normal form over the next 5 starts well then he'll be exactly what he's been his whole career. Very few guys miraculously find it his age and after this much time of not being good.

Conversely, could you imagine the bashing this guy would've gotten by some folks here after the stretch he had with Pit before we acquired him? It would've been a Stearns fireable offense that he was being trouted out there every start.


Probably not only because we didn't give anything up and I think people saw the entire deadline as a joke not trying to actually improve. Hard to be that mad when a terrible pick up ends up terrible.

Jordan Lyles:

April: 2.42 ERA
May: 3.68 ERA
June: 6.00 ERA
July: 11.12 ERA
August: 2.86 ERA
September: -----

It is...interesting to say the least.


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#25

Posted: August 29, 2019, 8:49 AM Post
Posts: 2981
I guess I would take Lyles over Anderson at this point as I doubt Lyles gets anywhere near $8.5 million like Anderson is set to get. Guarantee one year with a team option for a second. Just a stop gap with the hope that Burnes or Peralta could still turn it around as a starter.


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#26

Posted: August 29, 2019, 9:04 AM Post
Posts: 4721
Location: Madison, WI
[Show] Spoiler
MrTPlush said:
tmwiese55 said:
Yea I'd definitely want him back but I doubt this guy is getting anything guaranteed beyond one year. Maybe a team option after or something if he finishes strong. I just don't think the market for him would be that strong so you're bidding against yourself. But I for sure wouldn't be doing it now when you still have another of sample to see how he does. If he returns to his normal form over the next 5 starts well then he'll be exactly what he's been his whole career. Very few guys miraculously find it his age and after this much time of not being good.

Conversely, could you imagine the bashing this guy would've gotten by some folks here after the stretch he had with Pit before we acquired him? It would've been a Stearns fireable offense that he was being trouted out there every start.


Probably not only because we didn't give anything up and I think people saw the entire deadline as a joke not trying to actually improve. Hard to be that mad when a terrible pick up ends up terrible.

Jordan Lyles:

April: 2.42 ERA
May: 3.68 ERA
June: 6.00 ERA
July: 11.12 ERA
August: 2.86 ERA
September: -----

It is...interesting to say the least.


Yea what a crazy year it's been for him. Glad we're getting the good end of it. I never saw this coming, I thought a multi inning relief guy and was fine with it as I didn't want to 'go for it' at this deadline.

I think I phrased poorly but I just meant imagine if he had that June/July stretch for us and how prone some folks are to massive sweeping judgments based of small samples. Same folks saying how this guy has all of a sudden figured it out would've been saying this guy is atrocious and has no space on an MLB roster merely 6 weeks ago if they'd have been watching every day and subsequently that Stearns needs to be on the hot seat for having him


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#27

Posted: August 29, 2019, 12:23 PM Post
Posts: 5116
Location: New Berlin, WI
I actually think a fair comparison would be Wade Miley. Who had flashes of brilliance, but came to us on a dirt-cheap deal. He had a really nice year for us, but was also hurt for a chunk of it. I think their ages were also similar. He got 4.5M over 1 year. So yeah maybe 1 year plus an option is the max a team will give him. But let's not try to argue he's some journeyman that will be getting $1-2 million again. He's been relatively healthy throughout his career, I would say a baseline for him for next year is probably what Miley got this year. More likely something like 1/$5m with a team option for $8.5m with $1m buyout...option vests with 150 IP, also maybe add some incentives. Again, not sure I want this. Just trying to gauge what his value might be.


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#28

Posted: August 29, 2019, 12:31 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
I actually think a fair comparison would be Wade Miley. Who had flashes of brilliance, but came to us on a dirt-cheap deal. He had a really nice year for us, but was also hurt for a chunk of it. I think their ages were also similar. He got 4.5M over 1 year. So yeah maybe 1 year plus an option is the max a team will give him. But let's not try to argue he's some journeyman that will be getting $1-2 million again. He's been relatively healthy throughout his career, I would say a baseline for him for next year is probably what Miley got this year. More likely something like 1/$5m with a team option for $8.5m with $1m buyout...option vests with 150 IP, also maybe add some incentives. Again, not sure I want this. Just trying to gauge what his value might be.


I think Miley may have gotten a little bump in interest and salary because he's a lefty, and had success in the league previous to last year (he was actually very good for the DBacks). Other than that, it's a good comparison. I'd say Lyles is looking at a 1 year, $3.5 million deal, with perhaps a $4 million team option.


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#29

Posted: August 29, 2019, 1:04 PM Post
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Werent there rumors that he was tipping his pitches in June/July with the Pirates? We fixed that issue and he found his early success again? It would make some sense and wpuld be a credit to him/explain some of his poor results.


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#30

Posted: August 29, 2019, 1:23 PM Post
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Posts: 13550
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Wade Miley can be tossed into this too if you are willing to accept that he was far better over the course of his career compared to Lyles. I feel like I'm trasing Lyles (even though I was the one that brought it up that he could be in the rotation next year in our IGT yesterday) but he really has been pretty terrible over his career. Maybe he has found something with Milwaukee and he will go on to reaching his potential as a 1st round pick but he still hasn't done a damn thing to warrant any sort of security in this game.

Chacin: 20 career WAR
Miley: 12.5 career WAR
Lyles: -2.5 career WAR

Even with that, Miley could only secure $4.5M from the Astros last offseason as he came off one of the better finishes in the game in 2018.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#31

Posted: August 29, 2019, 1:31 PM Post
Posts: 18984
I mentioned in the IGT but the only type of 3 year deal I'd be willing to do with Lyles would be of the Jeremy Jeffress type.

Something like 1 year/3.5M, for 2020, then

2021:5 million team option, $500K buyout
2022: 7 million team option, $500K buyout

That would secure us if he ends up being the real deal and guarantees 4M to Lyles. Seems more than fair given the career credentials that others have pointed out.

Anything else to me is overboard. We are still talking about a 4.55 ERA and 4.72 FIP this year, and his recent success could come back down to earth just like it did in Pittsburgh.


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#32

Posted: August 29, 2019, 2:41 PM Post
Posts: 716
Location: Washburn, WI
Oxy said:
Werent there rumors that he was tipping his pitches in June/July with the Pirates? We fixed that issue and he found his early success again? It would make some sense and wpuld be a credit to him/explain some of his poor results.


I heard that as well. He was tipping his pitches and the coaching staff didn’t pick up on it in Pittsburgh. The Brewers pointed it out to him after acquiring him and had him correct the issue.

I wouldn’t mind bringing him back on a one year deal for about $3-4 million as rotation depth and using him in the bullpen as well as the rotation as needed. I don’t think he will command more than that in free agency.


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#33

Posted: August 29, 2019, 2:50 PM Post
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Oxy said:
Werent there rumors that he was tipping his pitches in June/July with the Pirates? We fixed that issue and he found his early success again? It would make some sense and would be a credit to him/explain some of his poor results.


Chris Hook's pixie dust?


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#34

Posted: August 29, 2019, 3:37 PM Post
Posts: 4721
Location: Madison, WI
Since ya'll mentioned this I looked at his game log. Oddly he faced MKE 3 times in a row in June. Looks like 2 then a DL stint and another. 6 inning for 4 Runs. 3 for 3 runs then three weeks later 6 for 3 runs. So with that much time on him yea maybe they found something.


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#35

Posted: September 03, 2019, 6:35 AM Post
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Posts: 476
Location: Chicago
Lyles is a useful pitcher, but if your goal is to be a contending club he is a player you cycle back to in January for depth. There’s no reason to give him an extension. The millions you sink into him now could very well be the difference between landing a difference making pitcher or not


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#36

Posted: September 03, 2019, 10:44 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Since ya'll mentioned this I looked at his game log. Oddly he faced MKE 3 times in a row in June. Looks like 2 then a DL stint and another. 6 inning for 4 Runs. 3 for 3 runs then three weeks later 6 for 3 runs. So with that much time on him yea maybe they found something.


y'all?

UGH!


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#37

Posted: September 03, 2019, 11:56 AM Post
Posts: 4721
Location: Madison, WI
turborickey said:
tmwiese55 said:
Since ya'll mentioned this I looked at his game log. Oddly he faced MKE 3 times in a row in June. Looks like 2 then a DL stint and another. 6 inning for 4 Runs. 3 for 3 runs then three weeks later 6 for 3 runs. So with that much time on him yea maybe they found something.


y'all?

UGH!


You expressed your dislike of a made up word by using another made up word, haha.

This topic got brought up in the last few months ago and then got to the WI phrase "yous". As in, "Yous guys goin to da game dis afternoon". Never really thought about it before but at least Y'all has meaning in the combining of you and all. "Yous" really makes no sense


Last edited by tmwiese55 on September 04, 2019, 7:20 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#38

Posted: September 03, 2019, 8:55 PM Post
Posts: 11914
Surprised this thread didn’t get bumped within five minutes of him completing his start tonight. He is better than Greinke!


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#39

Posted: September 03, 2019, 9:55 PM Post
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Since Lyles became a Brewer again:

Lyles 38.2 IP 2.56 ERA
Greinke 42.1 IP 3.83 ERA

[smile]

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Lyles extension?
#40

Posted: September 04, 2019, 4:27 AM Post
Posts: 4130
homer said:
Since Lyles became a Brewer again:

Lyles 38.2 IP 2.56 ERA
Greinke 42.1 IP 3.83 ERA

[smile]

So if Greinke is getting paid 3/104 this year through 2022....Lyles is worth at least 3/110.

Lots of FA pitchers who will be getting a lot of attention in this FA market. I like what he's done, but no real reason to rush it IMO. He has been great though. He's helped keep the Brewers hanging around in the WC race. Or at least still in spitting distance.


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