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Resigning Grandal & Moose

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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#81

Posted: October 21, 2019, 3:41 PM Post
Posts: 499
3and2Fastball said:
We had Grandal & Moose and made it to the Wild Card game & no further. If we have a limited budget, why would re-signing them help us get any further if we don't do anything to bolster our pitching?


Because w/o either of them it leaves the Brewers' offense the weakest in the NL Central and one of the bottom 3-4 in the NL. It would leave two gaping holes in the order and nobody to fill them.


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#82

Posted: October 21, 2019, 3:45 PM Post
Posts: 729
3and2Fastball said:
We had Grandal & Moose and made it to the Wild Card game & no further. If we have a limited budget, why would re-signing them help us get any further if we don't do anything to bolster our pitching?


I don't think anyone is suggesting they don't pursue pitching upgrades, but you can't rob peter to pay paul. Their offense, even with Grandal and Moustakas, was just middle of the pack in the NL. They need to make additions to both the offense and pitching whether that's through re-signing their own outgoing free agents or pursuing different players.


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#83

Posted: October 21, 2019, 3:54 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
We had Grandal & Moose and made it to the Wild Card game & no further. If we have a limited budget, why would re-signing them help us get any further if we don't do anything to bolster our pitching?


Well I think missing our MVP might have hurt us in that game and the fact that our best pitcher wasnt stretched out enough to pitch deeper into the game might have hurt, and the fact that we didnt have our set up man also might have hurt us.

No one is saying pitching isnt a problem. However our lineup will have huge holes without Grandal and Moose.

This team isnt going to be able to sign an ace in Free Agency anyway. The starting pitching crop isnt any good and you are going to get stuck paying a ton of money to a guy like Jake Odorizzi


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#84

Posted: October 21, 2019, 4:05 PM Post
Posts: 4813
Location: Madison, WI
Yea, simply because you could improve in other areas quite easily. Cain bounceback, Yelich doesn't get hurt, Hiura up all year, etc. Woodruff healthy all year, Burnes corrected, Knebel healthy, etc.


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#85

Posted: October 21, 2019, 5:35 PM Post
Posts: 12150
Like any other year there will be surprises and there will be disappointments. That is the beauty of it all when it comes to baseball.

We may sign neither of these guys and everyone will start crying that the season is over before it starts. Then Moustakas posts a .720 OPS and Grandal is a DL friendly .750 OPS catcher when he plays. Then after next year both go downhill fast. Suddenly everyone will be so happy we didn’t pay them $30mil+ to be using their bats as canes like Cain is already.

A lot of right moves to be made and many bad ones to be made.


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#86

Posted: October 21, 2019, 9:28 PM Post
Posts: 3741
long ball said:
3and2Fastball said:
We had Grandal & Moose and made it to the Wild Card game & no further. If we have a limited budget, why would re-signing them help us get any further if we don't do anything to bolster our pitching?


I don't think anyone is suggesting they don't pursue pitching upgrades, but you can't rob peter to pay paul. Their offense, even with Grandal and Moustakas, was just middle of the pack in the NL. They need to make additions to both the offense and pitching whether that's through re-signing their own outgoing free agents or pursuing different players.


Mark A is still the owner. If we re-sign both Grandal & Moose, we won't be able to make significant upgrades with the pitching staff, unless Stearns pulls off a miracle trade.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#87

Posted: October 21, 2019, 9:34 PM Post
Posts: 3741
Doesn't have to be a starting pitcher. Will Harris, Drew Pomeranz, Andrew Cashner, Tyler Clippard, Brandon Kintzler, Daniel Hudson. 2-3 of those guys would likely be a big upgrade over the course of a full season...

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Online  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#88

Posted: October 22, 2019, 12:02 PM Post
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I am generally in agreement about guys past 31 or so starting to fade. I think Cain's fade me be overblown given the finger injury.

That said, we probably have a 3 year window here, like it or not. We could drastically change things by dealing Hader, Woodruff, Yelich, etc. but knowing Attanasio, we're going to ride out the 3 years of Yelich and 4 years of Hader/Woodruff and only trade one of them if things begin to look bleak. And it makes some sense. The Cubs are in a bit of disarray even though they have the talent to continue to press the Brewers, the Cards are alright, the Pirates are a dumpster fire, and the Reds might have a good team next year but might go right back into the dumpster if not.

So, if you end up with:

Grandal 3/$57 (as suggested earlier in the thread)
Mous 3/$40 (?)
Throw in Pomeranz at 2/$15

I think you can fit that in along with Thames while nontendering Shaw, Nelson, and maybe declining Anderson, though that I'm not sure of.

Could it all collapse and we're sitting with $45 million of dead money for 2021 and 2022 with Cain, Mous, Grandal? Maybe (though unlikely all of them).

My question is really, outside of some shrewd major trades, what is the alternative? Sure, we can save the cash and not go 3-4 years on some of these guys and we'll be considerably worse with the MVP in his prime for cheap on our roster.

I might be a bit more scared if things get up closer to 4-5 years, but while I trust Stearns to work some magic, we're probably looking at hitting the refresh button in 2023 anyways. Is it going to be the end of the world if Grandal/Moose are riding out their final year on the roster on a 70 win team?


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Online  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#89

Posted: October 22, 2019, 12:20 PM Post
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Cain, Braun, [Moose/Grandal buyouts], Yelich, Thames, Knebel, Davies, Hader is roughly $65 million for 7 players

Woodruff, Hiura, Burnes, Peralta, Claudio, Black, Faria, Pina, Claudio, Suter, Gamel, Houser, Spangenberg is roughly $15-20 million let's say for 14 players. These don't have to be the exact players as they could easily just cut ties with Arcia or Burnes could be in the minors, but roughly the same idea.

If one believes that they can get up to the $125-130 mark again for their (now) 26 man roster, they will probably have $40-45 million to spend on 5 players.

They could backload if they want to, but Mous at $12 million, Grandal at $17 million, Pomeranz at $7 million is $35 for 3 players.

For the final 2 spots, they could then choose to bring back Nelson for ~$5 or Anderson for $8.5 or go external for one more reliever and a depth infielder in some combination. Or I guess keep Shaw, but that means Thames is likely not picked up.

That gets you to right around $125 for your 26 man, just north of $130 for the 40-man.


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#90

Posted: October 22, 2019, 1:57 PM Post
Posts: 12150
Our window may be 3 years, but signing Grandal doesn’t mean 3 years of production. He could have anywhere from 0-3 years of elite performance left.


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#91

Posted: October 22, 2019, 3:22 PM Post
Posts: 4813
Location: Madison, WI
Not pumped about going to 3 years on Grandal and I think I put a line at no way to 4. Go into trying for 2 years and probably cave and give the 3rd if needed to close it. Logic being that one would think at least next year you can trust him to be good(barring injury). So you don't have toooo much risk after that with only two more years to go. Can't imagine the way FA has been lately that anyone is lining up to hand him a 4-5 year deal.


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Online  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#92

Posted: October 23, 2019, 7:34 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Our window may be 3 years, but signing Grandal doesn’t mean 3 years of production. He could have anywhere from 0-3 years of elite performance left.


He just had one of his best years at age 30.

I'd gamble on there being at least 1 or 2 years of elite/very good performance left. That's really all I'd hope for.

Assuming 3 years for Mous/Grandal (and I could see maybe longer), the strain year is 2022. Maybe Cain, Grandal, and Moose have all started to regress or one of them is completely done and you have Hader far into arbitration, Woodruff in arbitration, and Yelich making his highest salary.

At that point you can decide to just go in one more time and sell at the deadline or see if you can move some parts around. It's also possible that that group is better than we think. Hopefully some reinforcements are ready from the minors by then.

It's not ideal, but I'm not sure what else we'd reasonably do. Maybe some shorter impact contracts is doable but I don't see Mark doing a Cleveland thing and selling now to win now and later (i.e. trading Hader for prospects while still remaining competitive).


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#93

Posted: October 23, 2019, 10:26 AM Post
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Some recent catchers & their age 31-34 WAR totals per Bref...

McCann 5.5
Suzuki 5.6
Yadi 9.6
Martin 11.9

Obviously the attrition rate is high at catcher, but I think 8 WAR would be a pretty fair median projection for the next 4 years of Yaz.

I think a 3/51 offer for Yaz & 2/22 for Moose (maybe with a 3rd year vesting option), especially if offered early in FA after both have had looong winters recently, could get it done & be solid deals for all parties.


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#94

Posted: October 23, 2019, 10:49 AM Post
Posts: 12150
So what you saying is we are likely to get less than 8 WAR for the next 3 years with Grandal? That doesn't sound like it is worth $17mil. Are we calling year four a 1 WAR season, so 7 WAR for three years? 2.33 WAR a season? That isn't terrible I suppose...but it also depends on what WAR valuation you like. 2.33 WAR via BRef seems pretty unlikely, but Fangraphs loves him.

I guess I don't follow why you found the average for 31-34 and then your contract is for 31-33. Why wouldn't you calculate 31-33 age seasons for an average?


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Online  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#95

Posted: November 08, 2019, 4:40 PM Post
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Man, it would suck if Grandal goes to anyone in the Central...


Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that "all signs point" toward the Reds making a "serious run" at Yasmani Grandal this offseason.

The Reds haven't signed a major league free agent to a deal worth more than $3 million since 2013 (although, they did trade for Sonny Gray last winter and immediately signed him to a $38 million extension), but it sounds like they're ready to do some spending this offseason. Grandal wound up settling for a one-year contract last winter but should land a multi-year deal this offseason. Playing in Great American Ball Park would obviously be good news for his fantasy value. Nightengale also lists Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna as potential targets for the Reds.

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer
Nov 8, 2019, 9:14 AM ET

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Resigning Grandal & Moose
#96

Posted: November 08, 2019, 5:07 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
turborickey said:
Man, it would suck if Grandal goes to anyone in the Central...


Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that "all signs point" toward the Reds making a "serious run" at Yasmani Grandal this offseason.

The Reds haven't signed a major league free agent to a deal worth more than $3 million since 2013 (although, they did trade for Sonny Gray last winter and immediately signed him to a $38 million extension), but it sounds like they're ready to do some spending this offseason. Grandal wound up settling for a one-year contract last winter but should land a multi-year deal this offseason. Playing in Great American Ball Park would obviously be good news for his fantasy value. Nightengale also lists Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna as potential targets for the Reds.

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer
Nov 8, 2019, 9:14 AM ET


Castellanos and Ozuna would be horrible targets for the Reds but whatever. The only way if I am the Reds that I am going after Castellanos and Ozuna is if they will be playing 1B or the NL adopts the DH next year. Senzel, Ervin, Winker, and Aquino is already a solid 4 deep in the OF. All would be better defensively than Castellanos and Ozuna in the OF.


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