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Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)

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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#21

Posted: November 04, 2019, 6:10 PM Post
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Add Julio Teherán to the free agent starting pitcher list now that Atlanta declined his $12 million option.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#22

Posted: November 04, 2019, 7:01 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
I've always been hot and cold on Teheran. Definitely never lived up to the prospect hype but when it comes down to the one thing that matters most...run prevention...he's been pretty solid. And the thing that is #2 on the matters most list...durability...he's been pretty solid there too.

His K/BB ratio is always pretty mediocre which is the main reason the FIP and xFIP tend to look mediocre. However, he just has an overwhelming history of his ERA (again, the actual run prevention number) outperforming his FIP. His ERA has been better 7 consecutive seasons, hard to say there is anything fluky when it happens seven years in a row. Over those seven seasons...3.64 ERA...4.22 FIP...191 innings pitched. Over the last three year the FIP is a pretty ugly 4.82 which will drive the market way down, but the ERA is a far better 4.09.

The only number that prevents me from really liking Teheran in a Brewer's uniform is the ground ball percentage. He's sat at around 39% over the last three seasons. I just plugged a minimum of 120 innings pitched into Fangraphs database, and it returned 104 results. Teheran's GB% ranked 80 out of 104, so he's in the bottom 25%. If it wasn't for that, I'd really be attracted to him as a potential bargain signing. I just think many teams will project him to be around a 5'ish FIP player over the next couple of years which will really drive the price-tag down. And as already discussed, there is a solid 7 year history that strongly suggest that his run prevention will outperform the peripherals.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#23

Posted: November 05, 2019, 7:21 AM Post
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Fangraphs included an interesting addition to the Starting Pitching names in their 2020 Top 50 Free Agents article...


41. Kwang Hyun Kim, SP, Age 32

Contract Estimate
Type	                Years	AAV	Total
Kiley McDaniel 2.00 $7.0 M $14.0 M
Median Crowdsource 2.00 $5.0 M $10.0 M
Avg Crowdsource 2.55 $6.2 M $15.8 M


Player Notes
Kim has been at the center of an awful lot of winning dating back to his amateur career. MVP of a high school national championship team and a gold medal and MVP winner at the 2006 World Juniors, he won gold medals in the 2008 Olympics, 2014 Asian Games, and 2015 Premier12 tournament, plus four KBO titles (‘07, ‘08, ‘10, ‘18) and a KBO MVP (‘08) with SK Wyverns, the KBO club with which Kim is under contract for one more season. The Wyverns finished 88-55 this year, and Kim is a cornerstone of their rotation.

If he comes stateside, it won’t be the first time Kim has been posted. The Padres won his negotiating rights for $2 million back in 2014 but could not reach an agreement after a physical. Kim had Tommy John a few years later and missed all of 2017. His walk rates, which were terrifying throughout his early and mid-20s, got much better in the latter half of that decade of life, especially after he returned from surgery.

Many pitchers return from TJ with a new physique thanks to their time away from throwing, during which they’re focused on the rest of their body. That’s not the case here, as Kim’s athleticism is seeping away, his arm slot has lowered a bit, and he’s less balanced over his blocking leg than he used to be. Stuff wise, Kim has a nasty, tilt-a-whirl slider he deploys as his primary swing and miss weapon; the rest of his repertoire (a low-90s fastball, low-70s curveball, and upper-70s changeup) is average or below. It’s a fifth starter/swingman look, barring some kind of velo explosion out of a bullpen. The question then becomes: is what teams are willing to pay for that sort of profile enticing enough for SK, a competitive team, to ship away such a vital part of their rotation?


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#24

Posted: November 05, 2019, 8:49 AM Post
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I am pretty sure DS is going to add a quality starter this offseason someone who going to go more than 4 or 5 Innings.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#25

Posted: November 05, 2019, 9:53 PM Post
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I think the Brewers will go after Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, & Jake Odorizzi. No idea if they'll manage to sign one of them

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#26

Posted: November 06, 2019, 6:40 PM Post
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brewmann04 said:
I am pretty sure DS is going to add a quality starter this offseason someone who going to go more than 4 or 5 Innings.


I thought that last year, and I'm not falling into that trap again this year... although I do hope to be wrong about that... [laughing]


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#27

Posted: November 06, 2019, 6:58 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
I'd have interest in the all the guys that are in the same tier as Wheeler, but I think all those guys will end up going for more money then they are really worth. I'm having a hard time finding a pitcher that I like and think would be a good fit at the right price. Keuchel maybe...those ugly peripherals but the ground ball rate could play up in Miller Park. Still, not really all that excited about him either.

The more and more I look, the more and more I'd like to see the Brewers make a bigger offer to Grandal. Not really finding all that much in free agency that excites me.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#28

Posted: November 06, 2019, 7:19 PM Post
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anglotiger said:
brewmann04 said:
I am pretty sure DS is going to add a quality starter this offseason someone who going to go more than 4 or 5 Innings.


I thought that last year, and I'm not falling into that trap again this year... although I do hope to be wrong about that... [laughing]


It will be interesting to see how he constructs the roster in light of the new roster limitations. How much faith does he have in burnes/peralta bouncing back? Houser still in rotation? Love this time of year!


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#29

Posted: November 06, 2019, 8:01 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
I think the Brewers will go after Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, & Jake Odorizzi. No idea if they'll manage to sign one of them


Wheeler jumps off page to me since Brewers have linked to him multiple times over the years. Odorizzi is another one due to starting in our system that I had always liked to have back on team.

I just hope we do something. How exciting was WS with 3 aces on both teams battling it out? Woodruff & 4 other guys you hope workout isn’t best approach


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#30

Posted: November 06, 2019, 8:14 PM Post
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What about Wheeler's numbers makes so many on here want him?

Seriously?

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#31

Posted: November 06, 2019, 8:25 PM Post
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turborickey said:
What about Wheeler's numbers makes so many on here want him?

Seriously?


He brings high velocity and has name recognition. Been a overly hyped guy for a long time. Numbers don't really point to anything special, though. I'd rather take Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles and probably still have a nice chunk of change left over.


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Online  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#32

Posted: November 06, 2019, 8:38 PM Post
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turborickey said:
What about Wheeler's numbers makes so many on here want him?

Seriously?


4.1 WAR last year, which is fantastic. His number suggest he's been both hurt by park effect and the defense behind him. I'm seriously confused by the question.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#33

Posted: November 06, 2019, 8:56 PM Post
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I believe the Mlbtraderumors.com projection for Wheeler was 5 years, 100M. I think it would be insane to even kick the tires if that is his market.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#34

Posted: November 07, 2019, 10:18 AM Post
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I remember everyone being so blessed that Wheeler trade fell apart. Looking back it would have given us a true ace in both 2018 and 2019. Of course the eventual Gomez trade turned out quite nicely, but seems the Wheeler trade would not have been too shabby either.

I don't see Wheeler happening at all. He is kind of the Cole fallback for teams and I really can't fathom us handing out a 5/$100mil deal or anything close to that.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
#35

Posted: November 07, 2019, 5:19 PM Post
Posts: 1171
Location: Ohio
I am curious if in all the advanced stats that are kept/ available, there is a solid/ good starting pitcher that is a free agent this off season that gets absolutely destroyed/ owned by Yelich or Braun...

It might be a selling point for Stearns - "Hey your pretty good already but now Yelich (or Braun) is on your team and not batting against you. Come join us."


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