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Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)

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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 13, 2019, 12:21 PM Post
Posts: 661
RollieTime said:
Over/under on a 2/$20 million contract for Anderson? Is he worth it to us?


Is this what the projections are for Anderson? If so, I think I'd pass then. It's crazy to me how much more some of these marginal players are getting on the market this winter - as opposed to what we saw the past two winters.

I guess I would hoping we could get him more in the 2/14M range, but I'm guessing the 2/20M is probably closer to being accurate.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 13, 2019, 12:32 PM Post
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I dont see Brett Anderson getting $10 mill per year given he is the worst qualified starter in K/9 at 4.6. 2/14M sounds heavy to me as well, but a lot of the pitcher contracts have caught me off guard.

Anderson is heavily groundball dependent and therefore it will be crucially important that our defense and positioning is on point for him. The positioning aspect I think we can all agree one will be a big bonus for the Brewers. The rest is hard to judge without knowing what the infield looks like.

Anderson will be an acquisition in the mold of Gio Gonzalez. Come to Milwaukee and threw more four seamers, cut the two seamers out and throw your best pitch, slider, more than ever before. This would be a very Stearns move


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 13, 2019, 12:46 PM Post
Posts: 101
amt2138 said:
I dont see Brett Anderson getting $10 mill per year given he is the worst qualified starter in K/9 at 4.6. 2/14M sounds heavy to me as well, but a lot of the pitcher contracts have caught me off guard.

Anderson is heavily groundball dependent and therefore it will be crucially important that our defense and positioning is on point for him. The positioning aspect I think we can all agree one will be a big bonus for the Brewers. The rest is hard to judge without knowing what the infield looks like.

Anderson will be an acquisition in the mold of Gio Gonzalez. Come to Milwaukee and threw more four seamers, cut the two seamers out and throw your best pitch, slider, more than ever before. This would be a very Stearns move

If Anderson is comparable to Gio, then I would prefer to simply resign Gonzalez since he’s already familiar with Pina and coaching staff.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 13, 2019, 12:53 PM Post
Posts: 336
mlloyd10 said:
How do we feel about Brett Anderson?


Really seems like a guy Stearns would like, I bet we give him a look.


Last edited by mattyo on December 13, 2019, 12:55 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 13, 2019, 12:57 PM Post
Posts: 1172
Location: Washburn, WI
madtownhawk said:
RollieTime said:
Over/under on a 2/$20 million contract for Anderson? Is he worth it to us?


Is this what the projections are for Anderson? If so, I think I'd pass then. It's crazy to me how much more some of these marginal players are getting on the market this winter - as opposed to what we saw the past two winters.

I guess I would hoping we could get him more in the 2/14M range, but I'm guessing the 2/20M is probably closer to being accurate.


This was just me tossing out a random over/under on him, but basing it off of how insane the prices are for starting pitchers. It wouldn’t shock me to see him get $10 million or a little more in this market today. And with him being in his prime, I could see someone giving him a couple year offer.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 13, 2019, 1:59 PM Post
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Good call on Brett Anderson!


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 13, 2019, 2:21 PM Post
Posts: 101
bdpecore said:
amt2138 said:
I dont see Brett Anderson getting $10 mill per year given he is the worst qualified starter in K/9 at 4.6. 2/14M sounds heavy to me as well, but a lot of the pitcher contracts have caught me off guard.

Anderson is heavily groundball dependent and therefore it will be crucially important that our defense and positioning is on point for him. The positioning aspect I think we can all agree one will be a big bonus for the Brewers. The rest is hard to judge without knowing what the infield looks like.

Anderson will be an acquisition in the mold of Gio Gonzalez. Come to Milwaukee and threw more four seamers, cut the two seamers out and throw your best pitch, slider, more than ever before. This would be a very Stearns move

If Anderson is comparable to Gio, then I would prefer to simply resign Gonzalez since he’s already familiar with Pina and coaching staff.

I guess Stearns thought changing things up a bit more was the better way to go. This is why he’s the GM, not me lol


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 13, 2019, 2:47 PM Post
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mlloyd10 said:
How do we feel about Brett Anderson?

Now say...”How do we feel about Nicholas Castellanos?” [wink]


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 13, 2019, 3:32 PM Post
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mlloyd10 said:
How do we feel about Brett Anderson?


I see you follow Brewer World on Twitter as well. Guy is a total goofball, but he's gotta have some sort of inside info source, because his batting average is trending pretty high.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 15, 2019, 1:32 PM Post
Posts: 3962
I’d really love to see the Brewers sign Ryu...

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 15, 2019, 1:43 PM Post
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I agree Ryu or Dallas would be nice.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 16, 2019, 12:22 AM Post
Posts: 2866
Brewcrewin07 said:

They sure did, but that's essentially what I'm talking about...the Brewers sign "castoffs" and HOPE it works out for that year or two. In this instance it did. Some years it might, like with Lyles and Chacin and Miley. And where are they now?? Pitching elsewhere. Why?? Because the same guys that "know what they are doing", obviously knew they caught lightning in a bottle for that year. Good for them that they hit on it. But, let me ask you, is it a sustainable strategy?? Always hoping/thinking you can get a bounce back season from a guy?? We saw what happened after Chacin's one good year, we have seen what Lyles usually has been during his career, Miley didn't even crack the Astros postseason rotation.

You always rip on me wanting "name" guys...well, let me tell you something..who would be more likely to be a stud TOR guy for many years to come?? Strasburg or Miley?? Cole or Lyles?? I mean I could go on and on..if you need that explained to you, I'm not sure what to say. There's a reason those guys are "name" guys...it's really that simple.


There is a reason MKE starts every season with 10 SP options in their back pocket and usually adds a guy or two during the year.

It's not sustainable if you pick 5 guys for 5 spots. If you pick 12 guys for 5 spots you can miss on 7. That's the trick to it.

Would it be more likely that Cole and Stras are aces than Lyles and Miley. Yes. That's why they cost 30 million a year.

But MKE has found:
35 start Chacin 3.5 era (35 192.2 75)
16 start Miley 2.57 era (16 80.2 23)
5 start Gio 2.13 era (5 25.1 6) total 56 starts 5.33 ip per start 3.13 ERA
and
17 start Gio 3.5 era (17 81 34)
11 start Lyles 2.45 era (11 58.2 16) total 28 starts 5 ip per start 3.22 ERA

In back to back years. Basically, by rummaging around and rotating multiple options until something sticks MKE has generated an ACE out of thin air every year. Did better in 2018 than 2019 obviously. These guys didn't cost 30 mil. They didn't even cost the 17 MadBum just got. That is a lot of starts and a lot of innings at 3.2 ERA for a fraction of cost that you'd expect for those numbers.

You never know which one its going to be. You could miss the boat entirely. However, if you have 10-12 options instead of 5 the chances of it netting something between these 2 isn't some crazy statistical anomaly.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 16, 2019, 8:48 AM Post
Posts: 5203
Location: Madison, WI
Was just talking with some people and the topic came up of what big money FA starting pitching signings have actually worked out or been worth the money?

I went through and struggled to come up with any in the last 15ish years other than Scherzer. We thought Sabathia's could count for the initial few years, but then he opted out and his extension went bad. So he's a gray area one. Other ones that have generally been fine would be Kershaw and Verlander, but those were signed with their own teams as younger players, not true FA deals. There has to be more, anyone else think of a few?


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 16, 2019, 10:48 AM Post
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Location: Chicago
tmwiese55 said:
Was just talking with some people and the topic came up of what big money FA starting pitching signings have actually worked out or been worth the money?

I went through and struggled to come up with any in the last 15ish years other than Scherzer. We thought Sabathia's could count for the initial few years, but then he opted out and his extension went bad. So he's a gray area one. Other ones that have generally been fine would be Kershaw and Verlander, but those were signed with their own teams as younger players, not true FA deals. There has to be more, anyone else think of a few?


Jon Lester-- 74W 41L 159GS, 1.24WHIP 3.27SO/W ratio with the Cubs

Zack Greinke--55W 29L, 1.09WHIP, 3.33SO/W ratio with D'Backs
8 wins, 1.06WHIP, 5.78SO/W ratio with Astros
Contract ultimately didn't work out for the D'Backs, but hard to argue Greinke's performance wasn't worth every penny

David Price has been worth the money to Boston so far... (46W 24L, 1.20WHIP, 3.90SO/W ratio) I think its the remaining 96 million which will define his contract.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 16, 2019, 11:25 AM Post
Posts: 5203
Location: Madison, WI
Good one on Lester, forgot about that one. We talked about Greinke's current but thought not, yea he's still good but not worth that much and still has 2 years left at over 30 mil. But yea that's a close one that it's fair to count. You could also probably say Greinke's first big deal with Dodgers too, but he opted out. But his initial 6 year would've worked out there.

Person I was talking to is a Sox fan so he consider Price's bad. Granted, he has the inherent Boston "woe is me" attitude in spite of the 20 titles that city has won lately. I try to remind him Price actually did well and contributed to a WS just two years ago. But overall I agree it's been bad, 4 years in and two of them were injured/bad. And there is 3 years and close 100 left on it, and the team is currently trying to salary dump him.

Overall point seems solid though, these deals almost never work out. Signing your own guy for a healthy contract extension pre FA in his mid 20s seems solid. But big FA deals to SPs in their early 30s almost never work out. So maybe we shouldn't be too angry we can't sign these guys.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 16, 2019, 8:15 PM Post
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Per Rosenthal, looks like Ryu will get a minimum of 4 years, $80 million.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 16, 2019, 9:21 PM Post
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I wonder what Dallas is asking for


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: December 16, 2019, 10:16 PM Post
Posts: 834
So I was looking at their current depth and how many guys they had start a game last year and I sorta had a sinking feeling come over me... I think they may be done adding SP on guaranteed deals.

Last year they had 11 guys start (it was actually 12, but i'm discounting the Jacob Barnes opener start). 3 of those guys- Gio, Lyles, and Pomeranz were acquired in season.

Right now they have 8 guys who could reasonably start for them for any stretch of time in Anderson, Linblom, Lauer, Woodruff, and Houser as the initial rotation. Burnes, Peralta, and Suter as the first line of depth. Faria is here too, but who knows how long he will last on the 26 man roster.

I assume the Brewers will need to make another Lyles like addition mid season, but that's basically your rotation depth.

I hope I'm wrong, because I'm nervous about this group. Maybe most of that fear is because we don't have the familiarity we had going into last season with guys like Davies, Anderson, and Chacin all being relatively stable veterans complementing the 3 young guys.

We will almost certainly see a Tomlin like signing, but other than that this might be the group they have going into opening day.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: January 28, 2020, 1:20 PM Post
Posts: 4947
May as well bump this thread. From the looks of it, for Starting pitchers remaining of note are Taijuan Walker, Danny Salazar, Aaron Sanchez, and Matt Harvey.

I think it is surprising to me Salazar hasn't been signed. Walker next. Sanchez has to be a fit for like Pittsburgh on a 1year sign and trade hope type deal. Or whomever isn't in the 72+win category.

So. Salazar or Walker? Walker is 27 coming off TJ for 1IP last season. He has a 105ERA+ for his career and a high of 135 in 2017 his last full season pitching. Highest IP is 169.2. He earned 5mil last season his Super 2 year 2. So maybe that's the holdup here? He's due for a 3rd year arb. Maybe there's a date being unsigned to meet a FA signing not involving the Arbitration process? So upon signing with a team, they would have control of him for 2021 as well. Or maybe I'm reading that wrong and this is his final Arb year and becomes a FA after the season? I just don't understand how he's not signed with a team already.

Salazar. He's 30 also coming back from TJ 1Start for Cleveland last season 4IP. He has a 112ERA+ for his career but a high of only 125 in 2015. He's a high K guy with also a higher Whip then you'd want. That 2015 season he acheived 185IP and 2016 he was an All-Star. His contract last season was 4.5mil, his last Arb deal reducing from 5mil in 2018. Career Fip is only 3.61 and every season he pitched he was below 4Fip. That is something Walker can't lay claim to.

Ah geez, now I'm looking at Salazar and BRef has him as 5.162 service time. So does he fall on the last year of Arb too? Either way you slice, I think the upside is there in both to do 1yr deals even if you're paying 4-6.5mil for it. Is there something I'm missing on why these two aren't signed?


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)
Posted: January 28, 2020, 3:01 PM Post
Posts: 2866
Well Sanchez is hurt worse than originally expected. He'll miss much of 2020. The other two I haven't seen an update about 2020 ETA.

Most guys kicking around have had some medical news pop up on them that wasn't optimistic and I wonder what that medical news is on Walker Salazar and McHugh.


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