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What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?

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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#21

Posted: October 07, 2019, 4:36 PM Post
Posts: 505
Devinep said:
Devinep said:
With a weak farm system I think the best way to compete is the mid-level free agent market and spend to keep key pieces:

Sign: Jose Iglesias, Steve Vogt, Wade Miley

Resign: Moustakas, Pomeranz, Gio and/ or Lyles

Non tender/try to trade: Shaw, Arcia, Nelson (MILB deal), Anderson (option decline)

Minor league deals: Jeffress, Nelson, Hernan


Also sign Starlin Castro as a 1B/3B RHB


I'm a little leery of the cost for Castro. He made $12M last year. I don't think the Marlins give him the $16M option, but he may be too expensive for a bench player. I like Neil Walker for around $2.5M. SW who plays 1B-3B and can fill in at 2B if needed.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#22

Posted: October 07, 2019, 7:51 PM Post
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Walker ONLY if he serves in a bench role, not as a starter. If he is the best we can do as a full time starter, then why bother?

Not a fan.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#23

Posted: October 07, 2019, 9:07 PM Post
Posts: 4647
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I'm going to nitpick on one small thing. I'm sure others will chime in quite a bit on other stuff, but I have to think virtually zero chance Faria gets non-tendered. He's cheap, team controlled, and has a really good arm. This also qualifies as pulling an arm out of an organization at the very top of development...we should also be able to get some significant insights into how the Rays develop their players, particularly their pitchers. Admittedly, not sure what his option situation is.


Faria is out of options. But I agree ... he makes the team out of Spring Training next year, at least initially. Probably a long man in the pen to start with, but hopefully can move up the ladder. He's probably a dark horse to be given an opportunity to start.


Honestly, I think Faria could be good, but if the Crew could get all of Mogi, Kim,and Bumgarner, I'm okay with letting him go.

And yes, I think the Brewers need to look at NPB and KBO for their shortstop upgrade.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#24

Posted: October 08, 2019, 6:06 AM Post
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My plan hinges a lot on the state of Travis Shaw, and whether the team thinks he has any chance of coming back to being the player he was (Or even an average 3B). From the outside, it's hard to know what's up with him. Presumably the Brewers have a better idea; is it physical, mental or mechanical? And is it fixable? The reason this matters is that it will be very hard to keep both Moustakas and Grandal (And strengthen elsewhere) unless payroll goes up, which I doubt it will. I used to think that while Grandal was the better player, Moose made more sense to extend, but now I'm definitely in the Grandal camp. So I'd like to see both, but if both means losing out on other well needed upgrades (Pitching, SS) then I'd chose Grandal. Going with Shaw means a higher quality pitching addition, going with Moose likely means trying to find the next Miley.

So principally what I'd like to get done:
Retain Grandal
Re-sign Lyles, Pomeranz, maybe Gio
Upgrade at SS; Market doesn't look great so this might be hard to do, but trying to do it should be a priority. I liked Miguel Rojas, but he just signed an extension.
Acquire a RHH corner infielder. Perhaps David Freese if the Dodgers don't retain him.
Acquire a starting pitcher who can be trusted to go deeper into games, enabling the early hooks on other days.
Acquire a RH reliever is the opportunity is right.

Pick up Thames option
Decline Anderson's; Or trade. I've gone back and forth on this. It depends on what other pitchers can be signed. He's useful to have, and you know what you're getting with him. But I think that money can be used to improve, to help get that starter mentioned above. $8.5m is not a lot for a starter, but it is if Anderson continues to be the 4-5 inning guy he has been so far.

I do think that Gerrit Cole is more likely to be a serious Stearns target than the big-name starter FAs in earlier years, because how how good he is and how (for a starter FA) young he is. But it's still not happening, so let's move on.
Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu; Keuchel would be the next tier. All highly sough after. Perhaps a bit too rich, but possibilities.
Odorizzi, Gibson, Miley, Roark, Wood etc: I think this is where the starter will come from. With the front office trying to figure out who in this tier is "fixable" or can be improved on.

So something like this:
Rotation: Woodruff, New SP, Lyles, Davies, Houser - Further possibilities are a Gio re-signing, a Burnes re-emergence, Suter.
Bullpen: Hader, Knebel, Pomeranz, Claudio, Suter, Peralta, Guerra(?), Burnes, Jackson, Black, Faria, Wahl - Some will obviously be part of the AAA shuttle, or at least start in AAA.
C: Grandal, Piña
IF: Thames, 1B/3B (Freese?), Hiura, SS (???), Moustakas or Shaw, Spangenberg, Arcia (As SS if noone is signed, otherwise as IF backup/defensive sub)
OF: Braun (Also 1B), Yelich, Cain, Grisham, Gamel.

That's 1 player too many if both additions are made, but Grisham, Gamel, Arcia have minor league options remaining and some injuries are inevitable.



Overall it's not a huge overhaul. This was a playoff team this year despite a lot of things going wrong. My approach is to strengthen the areas of weakness, and then upgrade further at the deadline if the team is in contention. Some will say the bullpen was a weakness this year and needs strengthennig; I'll say that it *was* a weakness early on, but as the members and roles in it solidified, it was good. Full seasons (hopefully) of Knebel, Suter and Pomeranz in addition to the better performers who were there all year (Hader, Guerra, Jackson, Claudio, maybe Peralta/Burnes) makes for a good 'pen.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#25

Posted: October 08, 2019, 6:32 AM Post
Posts: 490
wntrtxn21 said:
Devinep said:
Devinep said:
With a weak farm system I think the best way to compete is the mid-level free agent market and spend to keep key pieces:

Sign: Jose Iglesias, Steve Vogt, Wade Miley

Resign: Moustakas, Pomeranz, Gio and/ or Lyles

Non tender/try to trade: Shaw, Arcia, Nelson (MILB deal), Anderson (option decline)

Minor league deals: Jeffress, Nelson, Hernan


Also sign Starlin Castro as a 1B/3B RHB



I'm a little leery of the cost for Castro. He made $12M last year. I don't think the Marlins give him the $16M option, but he may be too expensive for a bench player. I like Neil Walker for around $2.5M. SW who plays 1B-3B and can fill in at 2B if needed.


If the corner infield is Thames and moose then the backup should be a platoon match and walker hits righties Better than lefties. I don’t see anyone wanting Castro as an everyday player so I doubt he be expensive l. But if he is then get another righty like Jedd Gyorko


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#26

Posted: October 09, 2019, 6:48 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
Trades:
Anderson + $4m to the Angels for Maitan and Yan
Brown and Nottingham/Ashby to the Twins for Gordon

Signings:
Pomeranz 3-years $20m
Wheeler 5-years $75m
Smith 3-years $36m
d’Arnaud 2-years $5m
Castro 1-year $3m
Odorizzi 5-years $70m

Roster:
C: Pina and d’Arnaud
1B: Thames and Braun
2B: Hiura
SS: Arcia and Gordon
3B: Shaw and Castro
LF: Braun, Grisham, Taylor and Gamel
CF: Cain, Grisham and Taylor
RF: Yelich, Grisham, Taylor and Gamel

SP: Woodruff, Wheeler, Odorizzi, Davies, Houser
RP: Feyereisen, Hader, Smith, Pomeranz, Suter, Peralta and Burnes


I am probably over the budget by a lot but I don't really care. If Gordon looks like he can replace Arcia at SS he can be dumped and save about $2m.

Should be good for another 85-90 wins. Will need a bounce back year from Shaw to do that.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#27

Posted: October 09, 2019, 7:28 PM Post
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Oh man, that line-up is horrendous...

What if 2020 Travis Shaw is 2019 Travis Shaw? Castro? UGH!

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#28

Posted: October 09, 2019, 9:52 PM Post
Posts: 505
nate82 said:
Trades:
Anderson + $4m to the Angels for Maitan and Yan
Brown and Nottingham/Ashby to the Twins for Gordon

Signings:
Pomeranz 3-years $20m
Wheeler 5-years $75m
Smith 3-years $36m
d’Arnaud 2-years $5m
Castro 1-year $3m
Odorizzi 5-years $70m

Roster:
C: Pina and d’Arnaud
1B: Thames and Braun
2B: Hiura
SS: Arcia and Gordon
3B: Shaw and Castro
LF: Braun, Grisham, Taylor and Gamel
CF: Cain, Grisham and Taylor
RF: Yelich, Grisham, Taylor and Gamel

SP: Woodruff, Wheeler, Odorizzi, Davies, Houser
RP: Feyereisen, Hader, Smith, Pomeranz, Suter, Peralta and Burnes


I am probably over the budget by a lot but I don't really care. If Gordon looks like he can replace Arcia at SS he can be dumped and save about $2m.

Should be good for another 85-90 wins. Will need a bounce back year from Shaw to do that.


I think you are way low on what Wheeler and Odorizzi will probably get. Wheeler will probably get in the $18-21M range, and Odorizzi will too. d'Arnaud made $3.5M this year so it's very,very unlikely he'll take a 30% pay cut to sign with the Brewers. At $12M Smith is too costly. Hader and Pomeranz and Suter will be the lefties. They can better use the money on a starter. You've got an interesting bull pen, but I don't see any way in the world Burnes makes the MLB roster. Knebel, Wahl, Black, and Guerra are all ahead of Burnes. I forgot about Feyereisen. Good call!


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#29

Posted: October 10, 2019, 9:20 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
nate82 said:
Trades:
Anderson + $4m to the Angels for Maitan and Yan
Brown and Nottingham/Ashby to the Twins for Gordon

Signings:
Pomeranz 3-years $20m
Wheeler 5-years $75m
Smith 3-years $36m
d’Arnaud 2-years $5m
Castro 1-year $3m
Odorizzi 5-years $70m

Roster:
C: Pina and d’Arnaud
1B: Thames and Braun
2B: Hiura
SS: Arcia and Gordon
3B: Shaw and Castro
LF: Braun, Grisham, Taylor and Gamel
CF: Cain, Grisham and Taylor
RF: Yelich, Grisham, Taylor and Gamel

SP: Woodruff, Wheeler, Odorizzi, Davies, Houser
RP: Feyereisen, Hader, Smith, Pomeranz, Suter, Peralta and Burnes


I am probably over the budget by a lot but I don't really care. If Gordon looks like he can replace Arcia at SS he can be dumped and save about $2m.

Should be good for another 85-90 wins. Will need a bounce back year from Shaw to do that.


I think you are way low on what Wheeler and Odorizzi will probably get. Wheeler will probably get in the $18-21M range, and Odorizzi will too. d'Arnaud made $3.5M this year so it's very,very unlikely he'll take a 30% pay cut to sign with the Brewers. At $12M Smith is too costly. Hader and Pomeranz and Suter will be the lefties. They can better use the money on a starter. You've got an interesting bull pen, but I don't see any way in the world Burnes makes the MLB roster. Knebel, Wahl, Black, and Guerra are all ahead of Burnes. I forgot about Feyereisen. Good call!


someone is going to really regret a contract like that for Odorizzi. What is he going to look like when he doesnt have a ton of starts vs that awful division?


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Online  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#30

Posted: October 10, 2019, 11:31 PM Post
Posts: 803
Location: Washburn, WI
What was the Brewers’ Opening Day payroll and end of season payroll? The number I found was $122.5 million for Opening Day, but I’m not sure if that is accurate and I couldn’t find anything for the season ending payroll. I just want to have an idea of what to go off of while finalizing what I’m hoping the Brewers do for their Opening Day Roster. Thanks in advance!


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#31

Posted: October 11, 2019, 3:17 PM Post
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As much as I hope they resign all three of Grandal, Moustakas and Pomeranz such moves would likely add: 20 million per year for Grandal, 10 million for Moustakas, and 5-6 million for Pomeranz. That's 35-36 million per year. At those prices they probably only resign one of those players and its a fair bet all three leave for different clubs.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#32

Posted: October 13, 2019, 8:25 AM Post
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Off-season plan ---

Bring back Anderson -- He gives up a lot of homers but he's still a useful piece and not that expensive.

one of Lyles/Gio -- I like both these guys. Gio has a longer track record of success. Lyles I think was a lot of smoke and mirrors. Maybe Hook saw something in him last year that he was able to either correct or something he was able to make repeatable. I don't know. I'm not sold that Lyles is suddenly a 3 - 3.50 ERA guy, but I wouldn't mind bringing him back on a reasonable 2 year deal.

Some rando mid-tier FA SP -- We're not getting Cole, it's just not happening. Maybe Miley again. Maybe someone else, but just some guy who can ably fill in the rotation.

Trade Hader for either Lux or Seager+ -- To be clear, I don't WANT to trade Hader. I think he's got the ceiling of being the best reliever in baseball. But the Dodgers need a guy to anchor their bullpen and we need a shortstop, so this makes sense. To me, anyways.

If we trade Hader, it becomes really prominently clear that a big push needs to be made to bring back Pomeranz. Knebel should be back at some point, and the rest of the bullpen will be tossed together like a mixed salad as usual, but Pom pitched amazingly well in that role.

Re-sign one of Grandal or Moose to a 3 year deal. I have no illusions that both of them are coming back. I'd honestly prefer Moose, because the idea of Shaw being the 3B next year is a little scary. Pina and "some guy" can ably handle the catching duties. I'd just make sure that Manny doesn't catch more than about 95 games.

Obvious move is obvious - exercise Thames option

DFA Perez. There's got to be a few guys out there that can do what he does and get on base at better than a .275 clip. I really like Hernan, and have enjoyed watching the guy play, but he's not performing.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#33

Posted: October 13, 2019, 11:21 AM Post
Posts: 505
Jopal78! said:
As much as I hope they resign all three of Grandal, Moustakas and Pomeranz such moves would likely add: 20 million per year for Grandal, 10 million for Moustakas, and 5-6 million for Pomeranz. That's 35-36 million per year. At those prices they probably only resign one of those players and its a fair bet all three leave for different clubs.


Imo Stearns re-signs both Moustakas and Pomeranz if he could get them for your numbers. They would be worth every dollar. The Brewers have nobody else at 3B other than Moose. They can't roll the dice with Shaw based on his horrendous 2019. Pomeranz is a late inning reliever who was outstanding for the Crew. $5M is not overpaying for him. Grandal, if he signs for anything more than $16-17 per on a multi-year deal is too expensive for the Brewers.


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Online  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#34

Posted: October 13, 2019, 5:04 PM Post
Posts: 803
Location: Washburn, WI
The Opening Day Payroll for 2019 was $122.5 million. The season ending payroll that I could find was roughly $128.6 million.

Position Players

LF Ryan Braun $17 million
CF Lorenzo Cain $16 million
RF Christian Yelich $12.5 million
3B Mike Moustakas $13 million (3/$39 million contract)
SS Jose Iglesias $5 million (2/$10 million contract)
2B Keston Hiura ~ $500K
1B Howie Kendrick $5 million (1/$5 million contract)
C Manny Pina $1.8 million

2B/SS Cory Spangenberg $1.5 million
1B Eric Thames $5 million (1/$5 million contract)
OF Trent Grisham ~ $500K
C Martin Maldonado $3 million (2/$6 million contract)
2B/3B Jedd Gyorko $1 million (1/$1 million contract with incentives)

~ $81.8 million

Starting Pitchers

Gerrit Cole $30 million (8/$240 million contract)
Brandon Woodruff ~ $500K
Jordan Lyles $3 million (1/$3 million contract)
Gio Gonzalez $2 million (1/$2 million contract)
Adrian Houser ~ $500K

~ $36 million

Bullpen

Josh Hader $5 million
Corey Knebel $5.2 million
Drew Pomeranz $5 million (2/$10 million contract)
Alex Claudio $2 million
Brent Suter $1 million
Bobby Wahl ~ $500K
Freddy Peralta ~ $500K
Jake Faria ~ $500K

~ $19.7 million

Other options/begin the season in the minors

Ray Black
Devin Williams
Corbin Burnes

Total Opening Day Payroll: $137.5 million

Anderson, Nelson, Perez, Shaw, Guerra, Saladino, Austin, Thames, and Arcia would be non-tendered. Thames will be brought back on a slightly lower contract than the team option. It’s too risky holding onto guys like Shaw, Nelson, and Arcia hoping for them to produce. We have 3 years of Yelich left and need to start putting the best team on the field without putting roughly $11 million into those three hoping for rebound seasons. Perez is too expensive for what he provides, Guerra is solid, but the money can be spent better elsewhere. I want to reduce risk and increase the floor of the entire roster and I think this roster construction would do that.

I would trade Ben Gamel and have Trent Grisham and Howie Kendrick as the backup outfielders. Zach Davies will also be moved and should bring back a couple decent prospects since he has shown to be a mid rotation starter and has two years of control left. I’m interested in moving him for salary relief and because he will be pretty expensive in his final year of arbitration next season. I’m a Davies fan, but I think moving him and recouping some solid prospects while getting some salary relief is big.

The rotation being led by Cole and Woodruff will give the Brewers a great duo at the top of the rotation and allow the bullpen to get rested up when those two take the mound. Pomeranz, Suter, Peralta, and Faria could be inserted into the rotation as needed during the season as injuries arise. Burnes is waiting in the wings in the minors as well. I also expect Stearns to bring in an experienced arm or two on minor league deals as depth for the rotation.

Maldonado is Cole’s personal catcher in Houston currently and will be brought in to continue their success together with the Brewers. Maldonado and Pina can split time, keeping both fresh all season long.

Iglesias is brought in to significantly raise the floor of the offensive production at SS while also providing solid defense. Howie Kendrick is brought in as nearly a career .300 hitter that hits from the right side while hitting both lefties and righties well. There would be plenty of at bats to go around during the season with Kendrick and Braun needing their off days, allowing Thames and Grisham to get 300+ at bats pinch hitting, DH’ing, and filling in for injuries and on off days.

Hader being arby eligible really threw a wrench on the offseason plans in my opinion. I was hoping to get the payroll to around $130 million for opening day for this exercise, but Hader being arby eligible made it much more difficult. I think $137.5 is a little high for where they would feel comfortable entering the season, but maybe Attanasio will be okay with it if Cole is able to be brought in. It would only be roughly a $9 million payroll increase from the 2019 season. Not bringing back Thames is one option they could explore to drop the payroll to around $132 in this scenario. Which I think is definitely a reasonable number for the Brewers. It’s also important to note that there will be $13 million coming off the books when Braun is off the books after 2020, already factoring in his buyout. That will provide a little breathing room at the top of the payroll for guys entering arby and offseason moves down the road when Thames (if retained), Kendrick, Lyles, and Gonzalez also come off the books, freeing up around $28 million between all of them.

I also personally feel that this will be Hader’s last season with Milwaukee if he isn’t traded this offseason as he will start to become way too expensive as a bullpen piece for the Brewers to keep on the roster. If he puts up another fantastic season, it wouldn’t shock me to see his contract next season around $10 million. It will only continue to go up from there.

Vs Right Handed Starter

CF Cain
LF Kendrick
RF Yelich
2B Hiura
3B Moose
1B Thames
SS Iglesias/Spangenberg
C Pina
P

Vs Left Handed Starter

CF Cain
1B Kendrick
RF Yelich
2B Hiura
LF Braun
3B Moose
SS Iglesias
C Pina
P

I really like the depth of the position players and bringing in arguably the top starting pitcher in the game. The bullpen will be a strength from Opening Day with the starting staff having plenty of depth to overcome some injuries to the starting 5. With Cole and Woodruff leading the rotation, the Brewers will be able to give the bullpen some much needed rest when those 2 take the mound, allowing Counsell to use his best bullpen arms when the other 3 guys toe the rubber and be able to pull them before going through the order for a third time.

The time is now to go all in to win a World Series with Yelich on a very team friendly deal, Hiura and Woodruff making the minimum, and having the best reliever in the game. I truly do think Stearns is going to do something big this offseason knowing that our realistic window for a championship is 3 years (the Yelich window). Bring in Cole on a massive deal, giving him an opt out after 3 and 5 years. If he opts out, it means he pitched fantastic for us and we had him during our championship window with Yelich. I usually don’t like opt outs because all of the risk is on the team, but I would do it for Cole. Also, if he continues to pitch well, but opts in to the contract, we could trade him when he has 2 or 3 years left on the deal similar to Greinke.

Your 2020 World Series Champion Milwaukee Brewers!! [smile]


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#35

Posted: October 14, 2019, 9:22 AM Post
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Location: Chicago
A guess, but also attempting to be somewhat realistic:

C Omar Navarez
1B Thames
2B Hiura
3B Moustakas
SS Arcia
LF Braun
CF Cain
RF Yelich

UTIL Tyler Austin
UTIL Travis Shaw
UTIL Spangenberg
UTIL Gamel
UTIL Grisham
C Pina

SP Woodruff
SP Davies
SP Houser
SP Kyle Gibson
SP Jimmy Nelson

RP Hader
RP Knebel
RP Claudio
RP Pomeranz
RP Guerra
RP Black
RP Suter

Having given it some thought, I doubt the Brewers pick up the club option on Chase Anderson. In the 8-10 million dollar range there are better starting pitching options available. I know the Brewers liked Kyle Gibson in the past, and they will need a veteran pitcher to round out the rotation. I put Nelson in there because what the Brewers already invested in him, and that last appearance in Colorado where he was commanding his pitches and topping out 94-95 MPH. Realistically, the #5 spot could also be a permutation of Burnes, Faria, Peralta.

I don't think there is a chance the Brewers re-sign Grandal so I put Navarez at catcher. He's 27, and a bat first catcher with three years of control remaining. I assume Seattle is going to go into a full rebuild, so Navarez won't come cheap but should be available.

Austin has always hit LHP, so I like him as a platoon partner for Thames or a corner OFer against LHP when Braun or Cain needs a day off.

I think they'll try to resign Pomeranz to have that 1-2-3 punch out of the bullpen (Hader, Knebel, Pomeranz), but with the way RF pitching goes in free agency I think they will have to a top of the market price 3/20mil to be resigned. As for Moustakas, I assume his preference is to stay with the Brewers if the financials are fair, so 3/39 million for Moustakas.

In 2019 the Brewers paid Grandal (18.25 million) Moustakas (10) Chacin (6.75) Gonzalez (3), take that 38 million and add the money saved on Anderson's option (7.5 after buy out) comes out of 45.5

2020: Gibson (11 million) Moustakas (13 million) Pomeranz 6.7, that's 30 some million dollars which leaves plenty of room for their arbitration eligible players


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#36

Posted: October 14, 2019, 11:01 AM Post
Posts: 505
RollieTime said:
The Opening Day Payroll for 2019 was $122.5 million. The season ending payroll that I could find was roughly $128.6 million.

Position Players

LF Ryan Braun $17 million
CF Lorenzo Cain $16 million
RF Christian Yelich $12.5 million
3B Mike Moustakas $13 million (3/$39 million contract)
SS Jose Iglesias $5 million (2/$10 million contract)
2B Keston Hiura ~ $500K
1B Howie Kendrick $5 million (1/$5 million contract)
C Manny Pina $1.8 million

2B/SS Cory Spangenberg $1.5 million
1B Eric Thames $5 million (1/$5 million contract)
OF Trent Grisham ~ $500K
C Martin Maldonado $3 million (2/$6 million contract)
2B/3B Jedd Gyorko $1 million (1/$1 million contract with incentives)

~ $81.8 million

Starting Pitchers

Gerrit Cole $30 million (8/$240 million contract)
Brandon Woodruff ~ $500K
Jordan Lyles $3 million (1/$3 million contract)
Gio Gonzalez $2 million (1/$2 million contract)
Adrian Houser ~ $500K

~ $36 million

Bullpen

Josh Hader $5 million
Corey Knebel $5.2 million
Drew Pomeranz $5 million (2/$10 million contract)
Alex Claudio $2 million
Brent Suter $1 million
Bobby Wahl ~ $500K
Freddy Peralta ~ $500K
Jake Faria ~ $500K

~ $19.7 million

Other options/begin the season in the minors

Ray Black
Devin Williams
Corbin Burnes

Total Opening Day Payroll: $137.5 million

Anderson, Nelson, Perez, Shaw, Guerra, Saladino, Austin, Thames, and Arcia would be non-tendered. Thames will be brought back on a slightly lower contract than the team option. It’s too risky holding onto guys like Shaw, Nelson, and Arcia hoping for them to produce. We have 3 years of Yelich left and need to start putting the best team on the field without putting roughly $11 million into those three hoping for rebound seasons. Perez is too expensive for what he provides, Guerra is solid, but the money can be spent better elsewhere. I want to reduce risk and increase the floor of the entire roster and I think this roster construction would do that.

I would trade Ben Gamel and have Trent Grisham and Howie Kendrick as the backup outfielders. Zach Davies will also be moved and should bring back a couple decent prospects since he has shown to be a mid rotation starter and has two years of control left. I’m interested in moving him for salary relief and because he will be pretty expensive in his final year of arbitration next season. I’m a Davies fan, but I think moving him and recouping some solid prospects while getting some salary relief is big.

The rotation being led by Cole and Woodruff will give the Brewers a great duo at the top of the rotation and allow the bullpen to get rested up when those two take the mound. Pomeranz, Suter, Peralta, and Faria could be inserted into the rotation as needed during the season as injuries arise. Burnes is waiting in the wings in the minors as well. I also expect Stearns to bring in an experienced arm or two on minor league deals as depth for the rotation.

Maldonado is Cole’s personal catcher in Houston currently and will be brought in to continue their success together with the Brewers. Maldonado and Pina can split time, keeping both fresh all season long.

Iglesias is brought in to significantly raise the floor of the offensive production at SS while also providing solid defense. Howie Kendrick is brought in as nearly a career .300 hitter that hits from the right side while hitting both lefties and righties well. There would be plenty of at bats to go around during the season with Kendrick and Braun needing their off days, allowing Thames and Grisham to get 300+ at bats pinch hitting, DH’ing, and filling in for injuries and on off days.

Hader being arby eligible really threw a wrench on the offseason plans in my opinion. I was hoping to get the payroll to around $130 million for opening day for this exercise, but Hader being arby eligible made it much more difficult. I think $137.5 is a little high for where they would feel comfortable entering the season, but maybe Attanasio will be okay with it if Cole is able to be brought in. It would only be roughly a $9 million payroll increase from the 2019 season. Not bringing back Thames is one option they could explore to drop the payroll to around $132 in this scenario. Which I think is definitely a reasonable number for the Brewers. It’s also important to note that there will be $13 million coming off the books when Braun is off the books after 2020, already factoring in his buyout. That will provide a little breathing room at the top of the payroll for guys entering arby and offseason moves down the road when Thames (if retained), Kendrick, Lyles, and Gonzalez also come off the books, freeing up around $28 million between all of them.

I also personally feel that this will be Hader’s last season with Milwaukee if he isn’t traded this offseason as he will start to become way too expensive as a bullpen piece for the Brewers to keep on the roster. If he puts up another fantastic season, it wouldn’t shock me to see his contract next season around $10 million. It will only continue to go up from there.

Vs Right Handed Starter

CF Cain
LF Kendrick
RF Yelich
2B Hiura
3B Moose
1B Thames
SS Iglesias/Spangenberg
C Pina
P

Vs Left Handed Starter

CF Cain
1B Kendrick
RF Yelich
2B Hiura
LF Braun
3B Moose
SS Iglesias
C Pina
P

I really like the depth of the position players and bringing in arguably the top starting pitcher in the game. The bullpen will be a strength from Opening Day with the starting staff having plenty of depth to overcome some injuries to the starting 5. With Cole and Woodruff leading the rotation, the Brewers will be able to give the bullpen some much needed rest when those 2 take the mound, allowing Counsell to use his best bullpen arms when the other 3 guys toe the rubber and be able to pull them before going through the order for a third time.

The time is now to go all in to win a World Series with Yelich on a very team friendly deal, Hiura and Woodruff making the minimum, and having the best reliever in the game. I truly do think Stearns is going to do something big this offseason knowing that our realistic window for a championship is 3 years (the Yelich window). Bring in Cole on a massive deal, giving him an opt out after 3 and 5 years. If he opts out, it means he pitched fantastic for us and we had him during our championship window with Yelich. I usually don’t like opt outs because all of the risk is on the team, but I would do it for Cole. Also, if he continues to pitch well, but opts in to the contract, we could trade him when he has 2 or 3 years left on the deal similar to Greinke.

Your 2020 World Series Champion Milwaukee Brewers!! [smile]


Imo Gyoko wouldn't be an option. He hit .174/.248 and getting worse. I'd try and re-sign Perez for $1M and look at Neil Walker for $2M. He would eliminate the need for Thames thus saving money. Spangenberg, Perez, Walker, Grishom, Maldy is the bench. I don't think Faria, based on his horrible numbers (11.47 ERA-7.94 FIP-2.6 WHIP-18 hits per 9 IPs), is retained by Stearns. He's beyond horrible. Black-D. Williams-Feyereisen all have much more upside than Faria. Lyles would be cheap at $3m and I think it's going to be closer to $5-6M to re-sign him. After the year Kendrick had, even at his age, he may get more than $5M. I seriously doubt Stearns has a shot at Cole, but I like your thinking.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#37

Posted: October 14, 2019, 11:20 AM Post
Posts: 505
Jopal78! said:
A guess, but also attempting to be somewhat realistic:

C Omar Navarez
1B Thames
2B Hiura
3B Moustakas
SS Arcia
LF Braun
CF Cain
RF Yelich

UTIL Tyler Austin
UTIL Travis Shaw
UTIL Spangenberg
UTIL Gamel
UTIL Grisham
C Pina

SP Woodruff
SP Davies
SP Houser
SP Kyle Gibson
SP Jimmy Nelson

RP Hader
RP Knebel
RP Claudio
RP Pomeranz
RP Guerra
RP Black
RP Suter

Having given it some thought, I doubt the Brewers pick up the club option on Chase Anderson. In the 8-10 million dollar range there are better starting pitching options available. I know the Brewers liked Kyle Gibson in the past, and they will need a veteran pitcher to round out the rotation. I put Nelson in there because what the Brewers already invested in him, and that last appearance in Colorado where he was commanding his pitches and topping out 94-95 MPH. Realistically, the #5 spot could also be a permutation of Burnes, Faria, Peralta.

I don't think there is a chance the Brewers re-sign Grandal so I put Navarez at catcher. He's 27, and a bat first catcher with three years of control remaining. I assume Seattle is going to go into a full rebuild, so Navarez won't come cheap but should be available.

Austin has always hit LHP, so I like him as a platoon partner for Thames or a corner OFer against LHP when Braun or Cain needs a day off.

I think they'll try to resign Pomeranz to have that 1-2-3 punch out of the bullpen (Hader, Knebel, Pomeranz), but with the way RF pitching goes in free agency I think they will have to a top of the market price 3/20mil to be resigned. As for Moustakas, I assume his preference is to stay with the Brewers if the financials are fair, so 3/39 million for Moustakas.

In 2019 the Brewers paid Grandal (18.25 million) Moustakas (10) Chacin (6.75) Gonzalez (3), take that 38 million and add the money saved on Anderson's option (7.5 after buy out) comes out of 45.5

2020: Gibson (11 million) Moustakas (13 million) Pomeranz 6.7, that's 30 some million dollars which leaves plenty of room for their arbitration eligible players


No thanks on Navarez. First Stearns would have to part with some high prospects to get him thus almost gutting an already weak farm system. Plus Navarez is one of, if not the worst defensive catchers (-30) in MLB. Austin is a .188 hitter, and .228 against lefties. I can't see any way he makes the roster. Shaw is going to make too much to be a bench player. I think they try and trade him and add a lower cost infielder, or use the money saved for a SS and use Arcia as a backup. Gibson would cost too much ($11-12M) for a below average pitcher. I would much rather re-sign Lyles at 1/2 the price. Imo CC would not keep a 6-man bench, but would almost certainly carry an 8-man bullpen. Lots of options for the 8th spot.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#38

Posted: October 14, 2019, 1:06 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 499
Location: Chicago
No thanks on Navarez. First Stearns would have to part with some high prospects to get him thus almost gutting an already weak farm system. Plus Navarez is one of, if not the worst defensive catchers (-30) in MLB. Austin is a .188 hitter, and .228 against lefties. I can't see any way he makes the roster. Shaw is going to make too much to be a bench player. I think they try and trade him and add a lower cost infielder, or use the money saved for a SS and use Arcia as a backup. Gibson would cost too much ($11-12M) for a below average pitcher. I would much rather re-sign Lyles at 1/2 the price. Imo CC would not keep a 6-man bench, but would almost certainly carry an 8-man bullpen. Lots of options for the 8th spot.


Tyler Austin in his career against left handed pitching has a slash line of: .253/.345/.539

I wouldn't necessarily call Kyle Gibson 'below average'. His 2019 numbers are nearly identical to Jordan Lyles as well as their career numbers. Which, of course, means Jordan Lyles is likely going to be seeking a bigger payday than the chicken feed people assume he can be resigned for.

Further, Travis Shaw's numbers from 2017-2018 are too good for the team to simply give up on him. Likewise his trade value is not going to be strong coming off a poor season. He such an enigma I could see him being non-tendered, but if not he'll be on the team and playing regularly if only to rebuild his value.

With the rule changes where pitchers have to throw to at least 3 batters or finish the half inning, I'd imagine they will shuttle more relief pitchers to and from AAA than carry 8 on their roster


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Online  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#39

Posted: November 05, 2019, 8:57 AM Post
Posts: 12183
Not necessarily my plan per say, but I thought of two possible ways to fill out the roster for next years on offense.

Plan #1
Mike Moustakas - 2/$20mil ($10mil avg)
Orlando Arcia - 1/$3mil ($3mil avg)
Yasmani Grandal - 4/$68mil ($17mil avg)
First Baseman - 1/$4mil ($4mil avg)
Total: $95mil / 7.2 WAR / $13.19 per WAR

Plan #2
Mike Moustakas - 2/$20mil ($10mil avg)
Didi Gregorious - 3/$42mil ($14mil avg)
Travis d'Arnaud - 2/$14mil ($7mil avg)
First Baseman - 1/$4mil ($4mil avg)
Total: $80mil / 8.2 WAR / $9.75mil per WAR

I took MLBTR predictions...at least one guy on this list will surely get dramatically less than expected. So basically the person the Brewers sign. I also just took last years WAR for the most part, I did give Didi a bump up to 2.5 WAR. Before last year he averaged over 3.5 WAR per season. You could take his 2019 (0.6 WAR) and it is still a better deal per WAR...so spare me the nitpicking. Additionally I assumed they would spend $4mil for a first baseman...Thames put up 1.5 WAR and that is what I gave each side. d'Arnaud seemed like a logical choice at catcher, but there are many similar options out there we could nab.

The big things to take away about the second option is A) we aren't giving $68 to a single 30+ year old player B) we aren't giving a massive 4 year deal to any player let alone a 30+ year old catcher C) it is overall less money committed and D) we are subtracting a black hole off the offense and being a bit more balanced in that sense.

The downside is you subtract a .850 OPS bat in exchange for that overall balance. I figure Didi is good for a .750 OPS, good...but not .850 OPS nice. Of course asking a 30+ year old catcher to continue to bat .850 for an OPS is a lofty expectation waiting to disappoint sooner rather than later. He could, but he may not stay elite for his position long. On paper I think these two options are pretty close, but I would probably lean the second option is less risky.

EDIT: If anyone is curious Plan #1 adds $34mil to next years payroll and Plan #2 would add $35mil to next years payroll. That's making the contract even across the board for each year of it, so basically a wash.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?
#40

Posted: November 05, 2019, 12:34 PM Post
Posts: 587
MrTPlush said:
Not necessarily my plan per say, but I thought of two possible ways to fill out the roster for next years on offense.

Plan #1
Mike Moustakas - 2/$20mil ($10mil avg)
Orlando Arcia - 1/$3mil ($3mil avg)
Yasmani Grandal - 4/$68mil ($17mil avg)
First Baseman - 1/$4mil ($4mil avg)
Total: $95mil / 7.2 WAR / $13.19 per WAR

Plan #2
Mike Moustakas - 2/$20mil ($10mil avg)
Didi Gregorious - 3/$42mil ($14mil avg)
Travis d'Arnaud - 2/$14mil ($7mil avg)
First Baseman - 1/$4mil ($4mil avg)
Total: $80mil / 8.2 WAR / $9.75mil per WAR

I took MLBTR predictions...at least one guy on this list will surely get dramatically less than expected. So basically the person the Brewers sign. I also just took last years WAR for the most part, I did give Didi a bump up to 2.5 WAR. Before last year he averaged over 3.5 WAR per season. You could take his 2019 (0.6 WAR) and it is still a better deal per WAR...so spare me the nitpicking. Additionally I assumed they would spend $4mil for a first baseman...Thames put up 1.5 WAR and that is what I gave each side. d'Arnaud seemed like a logical choice at catcher, but there are many similar options out there we could nab.

The big things to take away about the second option is A) we aren't giving $68 to a single 30+ year old player B) we aren't giving a massive 4 year deal to any player let alone a 30+ year old catcher C) it is overall less money committed and D) we are subtracting a black hole off the offense and being a bit more balanced in that sense.

The downside is you subtract a .850 OPS bat in exchange for that overall balance. I figure Didi is good for a .750 OPS, good...but not .850 OPS nice. Of course asking a 30+ year old catcher to continue to bat .850 for an OPS is a lofty expectation waiting to disappoint sooner rather than later. He could, but he may not stay elite for his position long. On paper I think these two options are pretty close, but I would probably lean the second option is less risky.

EDIT: If anyone is curious Plan #1 adds $34mil to next years payroll and Plan #2 would add $35mil to next years payroll. That's making the contract even across the board for each year of it, so basically a wash.


I don't hate your option #2 here. If Didi can bounce back to his pre-2019 form, that would certainly help negate some of the offensive dropoff you'd see at the C position by bringing in D'Arnaud instead of Yaz. But, you are banking on that to happen, and obviously nobody knows if he would return to that form? Also, do we think Moose is really only going to get 2/20M this winter? I know the market hasn't necessarily been there for him the past two winters, but just feels like this might be the year that some team with a need at 3B (and misses out on Rendon/Donaldson) will give Moose a deal. I could see the Nats giving him a 3/36M type deal after Rendon goes elsewhere.


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